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Global Ag News for July 22.24

TOP HEADLINES

Europe to Crack Down on Flood of Chinese Biodiesel With Tariffs

  • Biodiesel group says EU is set to impose anti-dumping duties
  • Fuel groups in EU and US seek action against Chinese imports

The European Union is cracking down on Chinese biodiesel imports after investigating complaints that a flood of unfairly priced renewable fuel is undercutting producers in the bloc and hurting workers.

The European Commission will impose provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports of biofuels in four weeks, ranging from 12.8% to 36.4%, the European Biodiesel Board said in a statement, citing a document from regulators.

“Our European businesses have been suffering for far too long under the pressure of unfairly priced Chinese imports and we are very happy to see the European Commission take action,” EBB President Dickon Posnett said.

The finding comes as EU fuel producers worry about being undermined by companies in Asia that are possibly mixing fuels with cheaper ingredients and then mislabeling them to qualify for incentives outlined by the 27-nation bloc’s renewable energy targets. Similar concerns have taken hold in the US, where business groups are urging the Biden administration to boost levies on Chinese used cooking oil used to make low-carbon fuels.

The duties will be positive for EU producers, though the region has built up an ample supply of biodiesel that any immediate impacts could be muted, according to Brett Gibbs, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

The EBB, which represents European biodiesel producers and filed its complaint over Chinese biodiesel last year, said on Friday that it is “gravely concerned” that the EU didn’t include Chinese sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, from the anti-dumping measures. The group said it will address the matter with regulators as a top priority.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 6; Soybeans up 17 3/4; Soymeal up $6.00; Soyoil up 0.44.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 16 3/4 in HRW, up 39 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/2; Soybeans up 13 3/4; Soymeal up $5.30; Soyoil down 0.50.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 25 3/4 in SRW, down 14 in HRW, up 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 50 1/4; Soymeal down $22.00; Soyoil up 0.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.8% in SRW, down 10.9% in HRW, down 14.3% in HRS; Corn is down 16.0%; Soybeans down 14.1%; Soymeal down 11.6%; Soyoil down 2.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 30; Soyoil up 50; Palm oil up 30; Corn up 14 — Malaysian Palm is up 26. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.66%) at 3987.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 64 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,182 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 19 were: SRW Wheat down 142 contracts, HRW Wheat up 351, Corn up 2,024, Soybeans up 752, Soymeal up 1,506, Soyoil up 7,412.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers went through over the weekend, being heavy in some spots but absent in others. Isolated showers continue through Tuesday. Montana was hot and the heat will spread eastward this week, though will become less intense as the week wears on. A cold front will move into the region on Friday and be slow to move out until early next week. Models produce precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans in some areas as well. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development, but could use some more rain in some cases as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, hitting some areas with moderate to heavy rain and completely missing others. An upper-level low pressure system responsible will continue showers through Wednesday before moving east. Even with it gone, isolated showers may still form later this week. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide more. Temperatures have been mild this weekend and continue most of this week, gradually moderating closer to normal by the weekend. The situation is fairly positive for most areas of the region though there are some areas that are being missed by the rainfall.

Midwest: Western and some northern areas saw showers over the weekend, but it was dry for a lot of areas. Mild temperatures in the region were overall positive for most areas. An upper-level low will be in the region producing areas of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday or Thursday though most areas will see light or no rain while only small areas should see moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Most areas are in good shape at the moment with a rather benign forecast.

Delta: A front that settled across southern areas this weekend brought areas of heavy rainfall. The front should continue that for most of this week. Northern areas will see pockets of showers move through this week also as an upper-level low slowly moves through. Models are mixed on if showers will continue over the weekend into next week or wait for another front to move through. Either way, most areas will see good rain, though southern areas might have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms.

Canadian Prairies: An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the region and brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. Disturbances have tried to bring showers through, but with limited success, including over the weekend. The ridge will get pushed eastward later this week as a trough moves into British Columbia, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola entering their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend with the trough moving in, but the ridge is forecast to redevelop for the last few days of July into August and may cause more heat stress.

Brazil: Drier conditions persist into next week, favorable for the remaining corn harvest. Wheat planting is behind schedule from the wet conditions of the last couple of months, especially in Rio Grande do Sul in the far south. The drier weather should help in that regard, but extremes of heavy rain followed by weeks of dry weather are not favorable either.

Argentina: Limited showers fell in a few spots over the weekend, but most winter wheat areas were unfavorably dry. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Some showers will move through southern areas with a front Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern areas will likely have to wait for another front this coming weekend into next week for another chance.

Europe: A system brought widespread showers to France and Germany over the weekend, unfavorable for winter wheat quality and harvest as well as being too wet for developing corn. The system will continue through eastern areas of the continent over the next few days where showers will be much more welcome, especially in the southeast. Another system will follow this one across the continent with more showers through Wednesday as well. Yet another front moves into western areas this weekend with more unneeded showers. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could affect crops there as well. Temperatures will be more moderate this week but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

Black Sea: Mostly dry conditions occurred over the weekend while temperatures continued to be hot and stressful, a common occurrence for the region this season. A system will bring scattered showers through early this week but will probably be light. Another system moves through the Black Sea this weekend and may catch western and southern areas with showers, but the widespread moderate to heavy rain that the region needs remains elusive.

Australia: Scattered showers went through southeastern areas of the country over the weekend, being heavy in some spots which likely increased soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Northeastern areas could use more rain but conditions are not critical yet. A front gets into western areas for Monday and Tuesday and skirts through eastern areas later this week. Showers may get into Queensland where they are more needed, but they look more isolated by that point. Several more fronts are lining to move through next week, but are favoring southern areas with rain.

 

The player sheet for 7/19 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN CAKE AND MEAL SALE: Exporters sold 105,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
  • ANIMAL FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of optional-origin animal feed barley in an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Rose to 11.3M Head on July 1

The feedlot herd rose 0.5% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a rise of 1%

  • Placements onto feedlots down 6.8% y/y to 1.564m head
  • Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 8.7% to 1.786m head

 

Brazil Soy Exports To Total 107 Million Tons In 2025, Up From 97 Million Tons Expected For 2024 – Safras & Mercado

Brazil: Report

Major Russian grain exporter TD Rif, which has changed its name to Rodnie Polya, lost $30m-$50m due to its ships being blocked earlier this year, Russian newspaper RBC reported, citing comments from owner Petr Khodykin.

  • Company’s losses are already more than $30m, but will total ~$50m including legal and other costs, the paper cited him as saying
  • The firm’s port terminal in Azov is working, but “market participants don’t want to take the risk: everyone knows that we can’t ship anything”
  • Email and phone requests for comment to the company were unanswered
  • NOTE: The company earlier this year said its wheat exports were disrupted after Russia’s agricultural watchdog faulted its cargoes for not meeting safety and quality standards

 

China’s Grains Output Threatened by More Extreme Weather

Extreme weather continues to batter various regions in China, threatening production of grain staples from corn to rice.

  • More precipitation is expected in nation’s north and northeast, raising risks that some low-lying farms will flood, China’s National Meteorological Center said on Monday
  • Heavy rainfall in the past week hit areas in central and northern China, including parts of top grain-producing provinces Shandong, Henan and Hubei, flooding farms and devastating some corn and vegetable crops
  • Constant high moisture in the soil is unfavorable for the growth of soybeans and corn in the regions, the weather bureau said
  • Rainstorms expected in the southern coastal areas this week could hinder the harvest of early rice, and may disrupt some corn crops

 

Indian Farmers Boost Area Under Monsoon-Sown Rice, Oilseed Crops

Farmers in the world’s second-biggest grower of rice have so far planted the crop on about 16.61 million hectares (41 million acres) of land, up 6.7% from a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

  • The area allocated to oilseeds rose to 16.31 million hectares, a jump of 8% from a year earlier, the ministry said in a statement late Friday.
  • The country’s June-September monsoon rains have been 1% below normal, according to the India Meteorological Department. Monsoon crop sowing normally begins in late May and peaks in July, while harvesting starts in late September.

 

US Weekly Beef and Pork Production Estimates: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 492m pounds for the week ending July 20 from 506m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Cattle slaughter down 2.8% from a week ago to 584m head
  • Pork production down 0.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.3%
  • For the year, beef production is 1.6% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.2% above

 

Brazil Halts All Chicken Exports to China as Virus Takes Toll

Brazil has halted all chicken exports to China after a virulent poultry disease was found on a commercial farm, expanding a previous ban and dealing a blow to meat packers including BRF SA.

The self-imposed restrictions — which also include a full ban on exports to the European Union and Argentina — may curb total chicken shipments by as much as 15% while in place, according to producers group ABPA. The move comes after the world’s largest chicken supplier detected Newcastle disease at a farm in Rio Grande do Sul state.

The ban is a major setback for Brazilian producers, which are yet to fully recover from years of depressed profit margins due to a combination of surging costs and a supply glut. The restrictions have the potential to tighten global supplies of the protein, benefiting competitors in places like the US.

China imported about 276,000 metric tons of chicken from Brazil in the first half of 2024, or 11% of the nation’s total shipments. Brazil chicken exports generated revenues of $4.6 billion in the first half of 2024, according to government data.

Newcastle disease, which attacks the respiratory, nervous and digestive systems of birds, was reported on Wednesday. The case seems to be isolated as there is no sign the virus is spreading, according to Brazil’s agriculture minister.

 

 

 

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