Global Ag News For July 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Bunge Closes Long-Delayed Viterra Deal to Form Crops Powerhouse

Bunge Global SA completed its takeover of Glencore Plc-backed Viterra, a move that will help the combined businesses better compete with larger rivals like Cargill Inc. and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. as the crop-trading sector faces a downturn in profits.

First announced about two years ago, Bunge had initially sought to close the deal by mid-2024, but was held up as it awaited antitrust approvals from various regions. The transaction now is closed, Bunge said in a Wednesday statement, weeks after receiving crucial support in China.

Bunge, the world’s biggest oilseed processor and the B in the quartet of agricultural powerhouses known as the ABCDs, has been pressured as ample world harvests weigh on commodities prices, while US President Donald Trump’s trade disputes threaten demand. Viterra’s vast network of storage facilities, port terminals and vessels should broaden Bunge’s trading opportunities.

“Today is a defining moment for our company,” Bunge Chief Executive Officer Greg Heckman said in the statement. “Now, we begin the exciting work of bringing our teams and operations together.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil down 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 24 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 24 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 12; Soybeans up 28 3/4; Soymeal up $5.30; Soyoil up 2.38.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 1.2% in SRW, down 6.5% in HRW, up 6.0% in HRS; Corn is down 5.1%; Soybeans up 5.3%; Soymeal down 10.5%; Soyoil up 37.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 11 yuan; Soymeal up 13; Soyoil up 38; Palm oil up 102; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 31.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.76%) at 4093.

There were changes in registrations (-192 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 1 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 915 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,781 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 2 were: SRW Wheat down 2,446 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,654, Corn up 1,334, Soybeans up 1,800, Soymeal up 4,947, Soyoil up 4,679.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 02 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The latest EC extended run from 01 July depicts warm and dry weather prevailing across most of North America during the next 4 weeks
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool and dry weather will persist across Southern Brazil during the next 10 days
• AUSTRALIA: Dry weather is expected across most of Australia during the next 10 days, barring far southwestern and southeastern coastal areas
• SOUTH ASIA: Well above normal precipitation is expected in and around the Madhya Pradesh in India during the next 10 days

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday, mostly south. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Thursday.

Midwest West: Isolated showers north Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 7/2 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 15,500 corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Tunisian state agency ONF has issued an international tender to purchase around 25,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the U.S. or China
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.2% to 24.117M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.296 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.076m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.08m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending June 26.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,206k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 900k tons, with avg of 594k

 

Malaysia palm oil stocks likely fall for first time in 4 months in June

• June stocks likely fall 0.24% m/m to 1.99 mln MT – poll
• Output forecast to have declined 4.04% to 1.7 mln MT
• Exports projected to have increased 4.16% to 1.45 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on July 10

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories likely dropped for the first time in four months in June as production fell unexpectedly while export demand remained robust for the tropical oil, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.

Palm oil stocks are expected to have fallen to 1.99 million metric tons, down 0.24% from May, according to the median estimate of 11 traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters.

Crude palm oil output is projected at 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decline after three months of gains.

At the beginning of June, the market was anticipating a modest growth or flat production after the rise in April and May, but yields were far lower than expected, said a New Delhi-based trader with a global trade house.

Palm oil production rose 21.5% and 5%, respectively, in April and May.

“Evidence suggests there will be robust production growth, especially during the third quarter of the year, meaning demand must remain strong for prices to maintain at current levels,” said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari.

Exports of palm oil products are forecast to have risen by 4.16% to 1.45 million tons, a fourth consecutive monthly increase.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its monthly data on July 10.

 

Russia Has Harvested 3.8M Tons of Grain So Far: Interfax

Russia has harvested 3.8m tons of grain since the start of this year’s harvesting campaign in the first half of June, Interfax reports Thursday, citing a presentation from Roman Nekrasov, head of department at the Agriculture Ministry.

• Over the same period last year, 16.5m tons of grain was harvested, according to the presentation
• There no details on the big year-on-year dip
• NOTE: Russia sees its 2025 grain harvest growing to at least 135m tons

 

Ukraine to start wheat export in mid-July, farm union says

Ukraine will start exporting wheat from the 2025 harvest in mid-July and its export prices could rise by $20 to $30 per metric ton later this year, reflecting a global shortage of supply, a producers’ union UAC said on Thursday.

The Ukrainian farm ministry said last week that farmers from southern regions had already started the 2025 harvest, threshing the first 22,400 metric tons.

The UAC said Ukrainian wheat export prices were hovering around $210 per ton carriage paid, or CPT, but were expected to increase gradually to $230 – $240 per ton in the final quarter of the year.

Across many wheat regions, poor weather conditions have constrained supply, while in Ukraine, where planting has been disrupted by war, the amount exported is expected to be around steady with last year’s in terms of volume.

“The price peak may be in December-February, when the price may reach $250-260 per ton”, the UAC said.

Ukraine, a global major wheat grower and exporter, is expected to produce up to 22 million tons of wheat in 2025 and at least 15 million tons of the volume could be exported, analysts say.

Ukraine exported 15.7 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 season.

 

China buys up to 700,000 tons of Ukrainian barley, analyst says

Chinese companies have contracted to buy up to 700,000 metric tons of the 2025 Ukrainian barley crop, adding to strong demand that has increased prices by as much as $8 a ton this week alone, analysts said.

Ukraine is a large barley producer and exporter and certified by Beijing to supply barley to the Chinese market.

“We are currently leveraging our premium position as a supplier of barley to China, and China is willing to pay $240 per ton cost, insurance and freight (CIF), the equivalent to $203 free on board (FOB) Odessa and $193 carriage paid to (CPT),” analyst Barva Invest said in a report late on Wednesday.

“According to market estimates, 8-12 Panamax vessels were sold. This means that China alone purchased 500,000 to 700,000 tons of Ukrainian barley – at least a quarter of our export potential.”

Ukrainian farmers have begun the 2025 barley harvest, which the agriculture ministry expects to reach 4.5 million tons.

Analyst APK-Inform forecasts a harvest of 4.7 million tons and says that 2.2 million tons of that could be exported in the new 2025/26 July-June season.

Ukraine harvested 5.3 million tons of barley in 2024 and exported 2.32 million tons in 2024/25, farm ministry data shows. Ukraine had no barley exports in the first two days of the 2025/26 season, the data showed.

APK-Inform said the shortage of barley supply and high demand continued to be a key driver of growth.

It said feed barley prices were in the range of $193 to $200 CPT port and in isolated cases reached $203 CPT on July 2.

 

U.S. soybean sales weakened, Brazil soy exports started slow

U.S. soybean exports have dipped for the second consecutive month to 4.93 million tons in January, down 12% from last year’s same period. Meanwhile, weekly export sales dropped from over 2.0 million tons per week during October-December to the 5-year lows in the last three weeks. Export sales to China dropped significantly. Total outstanding sales were at 8.88 million tons, compared to last year’s 9.50 million tons. Less demand from China and bumper harvest in Brazil indicate strong U.S. soybean demand won’t continue. We expect U.S. soybean sales and exports in the coming months will be near or slightly below last year’s low levels. Total exports during 2024/25 were projected at 48.8 million tons, below USDA’s February projection of 49. 7 million tons.

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean exports closed at 97.4 million tons, compared to 103.88 million tons for 2022/23. The new crop soybeans came to the market this February. The latest vessel line-up data (released on 08 February) show that 1.19 million tons of soybeans have been shipped, slower than normal due to the harvest delays. On the other hand, an additional 9.9 million tons of soybeans were scheduled to be delivered for the remaining month, indicating firm demand. China remains the dominant buyer of Brazilian soybeans. Barring an U.S.-China agricultural deal similar as the one signed in January 2020, Brazil soybean exports for 2024/25 running from February 2025 to January 2026 could reach 110.2 million tons.

Argentina has largely increased its soybean products (meal and oil) exports in 2023/24, following the back-to-normal soybean production in the country last year.  The exports of raw material soybeans have maintained at relatively low levels. LSEG agriculture research projected 4.6 million tons of soybean exports for 2023/24 running from April 2024 to March 2025. Although the adverse weather has negatively affected Argentina crop production this year, higher sown area has maintained Argentine soybean production slightly above last year. We forecast Argentina soybean product exports will remain strong in the coming season and soybean exports will also increase slightly to 5.5 million tons.

In China, LSEG trade flows show that soybean imports from the U.S. (including imports projected for February and March) decrease slightly from the previous season, confirming China’s weak demand for the U.S. new crop soybeans. Meanwhile, low hog prices and slow economic growth, as well as high inventory, could also curb China’s soybean demand for imports in 2025.

 

Bunge Is Set to Trade Argentina’s First Soy Meal Cargo to China

Bunge is poised to sell a cargo of Argentine soy meal to China, according to shipping data seen by Bloomberg News.

• NOTE: It is set to be the first cargo since China opened its doors to Argentine meal in 2019
• NOTE: China Imports Argentina Soy Meal in Trial Amid US Tensions
• The cargo of 30,000 metric tons is currently scheduled be loaded at the Terminal 6 port, a Bunge JV in Argentina’s soy export hub on the Parana River
  • Nordtajo is the bulk carrier assigned to the shipment. It is estimated to arrive in Argentine waters on July 16
• Bunge declined to comment

 

Ag Secretary Says That ‘100% Legal’ Farm Labor is a Goal

President Trump’s immigration policies have been a concern in the farm economy, with farmers impacted by field workers that have been deported or are otherwise fearful of taking these jobs. The most-recent estimates from the USDA show that 42% of hired crop farmworkers were undocumented. That compares with a high of 55% between 1999 and 2001.In an interview on CNBC, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the President’s goal is for a “100% legal work force.” She notes that reforms to the H-2A work visa program are being considered. “That’s a really important program, it’s broken right now,” says Rollins.

 

Africa Reports Bird Flu on Two Farms: Reuters Citing Agency

South Africa has reported the H5N1 strain of avian influenza on two poultry farms, the first cases in the country since September, Reuters reported, citing the World Organisation for Animal Health in Paris.

 

CME Group Completes First Delivery Cycle Of Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

• SAYS COMPLETES FIRST DELIVERY CYCLE OF HARD RED SPRING WHEAT FUTURES
• SAYS 182 CONTRACTS DELIVERED ON JULY 1, 2025, THE FIRST DELIVERY DATE SINCE THE PRODUCT’S APRIL 14 LAUNCH

 

 

 

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