Global Ag News for July 5.24

TOP HEADLINES

Global Food Prices Steady in June as Grains Offset Vegoil, Sugar

Global food prices were steady in June, as higher vegetable oil, sugar and dairy prices were offset by cheaper grains, according to an index of food-commodity prices from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Grains prices fell 3% from May value due to harvest pressure, and improved production prospects in some countries, including Kazakhstan and Ukraine
• Vegetable oil prices gained 3.1% from May
• Dairy Prices rose 1.2%
• Sugar costs were up 1.9%

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

US markets remain closed for the US Holiday and will reopen 8:30AM Chicago time.

For the week and month so far wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, up 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 17 1/2; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil up 4.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.7% in SRW, down 9.4% in HRW, down 14.2% in HRS; Corn is down 14.4%; Soybeans down 9.0%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 1.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 30; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 22.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 22 ringgit (-0.54%) at 4045.

 

There were changes in registrations (-198 SRW Wheat, -33 Corn). Registration total: 561 SRW Wheat contracts; 19 Oats; 508 Corn; 20 Soybeans; 2,576 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 3 were: SRW Wheat up 3,262 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,838, Corn up 1,986, Soybeans up 10,801, Soymeal up 9,778, Soyoil up 3,006.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers continue to move through the region into early next week. The frequent passage of storm systems could bring heavier rain through areas in the southeast that don’t need it. Temperatures will be near or below normal for the next week, keeping growth slow.

Central/Southern Plains: An active pattern will favor multiple fronts stalling in the region, bringing bursts of cooler air behind them and plenty of rain, which should be favorable for developing crops in most areas. Southern areas may catch some rains at times as well. They’ll be hot until the weekend though as fronts largely stall around Kansas or Oklahoma until then. Drought areas have been receiving a little more consistent rainfall lately, which should help those areas. But some across the south have seen less recently, where drought may start to develop if showers disappoint.

Midwest: Several fronts and systems moving through the region over the next ten days should bring plenty of opportunities for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Models are favoring the western half of the region with the heaviest amounts, which saw some heavier rain Monday night and Tuesday and includes some flooded areas. Eastern areas are still forecast to see chances for needed rainfall through next week, however and should be hotter more frequently than those in the west, which may cause some issues if the rain does not materialize.

Delta: Temperatures continue to be hot, but a front moving through late this week and weekend should produce scattered showers and bring in milder temperatures. Another system should reinforce that front early next week and bring more showers as well. The region will also be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl. It is forecast to move through Mexico or Texas early next week, but the forecast may shift closer to the region, which could mean heavier rainfall.

Canadian Prairies: Cooler than normal temperatures will stick around the region through the weekend. Widespread showers will continue throughout the region into early next week. Showers are more likely to be scattered with limited chances for heavy rain. But areas that may get hit multiple times could see some flooding. That would be exacerbated in areas across the north and east that have had issues with heavy rain in recent weeks. Temperatures should be on the rise by the middle of next week, a needed feature for the crop whose development is behind schedule.

Brazil: A front will move into the south on Friday and may stall in some areas going through next week. If it sticks around the same areas, flooding may be possible, which would not be good for winter wheat planting and emergence or transportation, which has had flooding issues over the last two months.

Argentina: Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment in most of the country. A front moves through later this week, but showers are forecast to develop over the far north for only a couple of days while the primary wheat areas remain dry and get another burst of cold air that may cause frosts, unfavorable for vegetative wheat.

 

The player sheet for 7/3 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 110,100 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations, including 55,100 tons for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2023, and 55,000 tons for 2024/25 delivery.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal late on Tuesday
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency also issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley, to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 19, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on July 10.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 129,660 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on July 3.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.7% to 23.594M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.348 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.064m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.034m

 

China Corn Imports Seen at 20M Tons, Trailing USDA Estimate: FAS

China’s corn imports in the 2024-25 marketing year that starts in October are seen at 20m tons, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

• That’s 3m tons below the US Department of Agriculture’s official forecast
• Abundant production in China and a prevalence of imported substitutes, especially barley, continue to suppress corn import demand, according to the FAS
• The agency predicts rice production in the Asian nation at 207m tons — 1.5m tons lower than USDA’s June estimate — in the 2024-25 marketing year that started this month
  • Heavy rains and floods damaged crops in some key producing regions earlier this year
  • “Some counties reported a seedling damage rate of 60%. Farmers had to replant rice or shift to planting vegetables or fruit”
• China’s total feed use may rise slightly y/y in 2024-25, despite lower demand from the hog industry
  • Proportion of corn mixed into feed expected to rise, replacing some wheat and rice

 

SovEcon Raises Russian Wheat Crop Forecast to 84.1 Million Tons

SovEcon increased its estimate for Russia’s wheat harvest this year to 84.1 million tons, from a previous forecast of 80.7 million tons, it said in an emailed statement.

• Says final yields are projected to be higher than initially anticipated in the south and marginally higher yields in the Urals and Siberia
• Timely rain in the central region and the Volga Valley has helped wheat recover from earlier damage caused by drought and frosts: Managing Director Andrey Sizov

 

Ukraine Exports 315K Tons of Grains So Far in 2024-25 Season

Ukraine has exported 315 thousand tons of grain and legumes in the season that started on July 1, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said in data posted on its website.

• Total includes:
  • 169,000 tons of wheat vs 9,000 tons last year
  • 3,000 tons of barley
  • 142,000 tons of corn vs 25,000 tons last year

 

World Wheat Stockpiles for 2024-25 Slightly Raised: FAO-AMIS

World wheat stockpiles are seen totaling 308.4m tons in 2024-25, according to the AMIS Market Monitor released Thursday, up from its estimate of 306.8m tons in June.

• Wheat production is forecast at 789.1m tons, up from last month’s estimate but almost steady y/y
• Comes from improved prospects in several countries, including China, India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey, and Ukraine
• These gains outweighed “a downward revision in the Russian Federation”

CORN

• Stockpile estimates were cut to 319.7m tons from 324.5m tons in June
• Still forecast to be up 2.7% y/y
• Production estimates were raised to 1.23b tons, still slightly below 2023/24 levels

SOYBEANS

• Stockpile estimates held mostly steady from June at 60.6m tons, while production expectations also remained almost the same at 418.9m tons

 

French 2024 Wheat Yield Seen Down 13% Y/y Due to Rains: Groups

This year’s soft-wheat yield in France is estimated at 6.4 tons/hectare, down 13% y/y, due to exceptionally wet weather, industry group Intercereales and crop institute Arvalis said Friday in a statement.

• That’s 11% below the 10-year average and would be the lowest since 2016
• Rains across all regions significantly disrupted sowing — and then growing — of wheat
  • Crops also suffered from weed and disease pressure and lack of sunlight
• Protein content estimated at 11.6%, near average
• NOTE: Wheat harvesting in France typically begins near this time

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 9.5 Million Tns In July – ANEC

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 9.5 MILLION TNS IN JULY – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.4 MILLION TNS IN JULY – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.8 MILLION TNS IN JULY – ANEC

 

Brazil corn exports gather pace as soy season loses momentum

Brazilian corn exports for July were estimated at 3.4 million metric tons, a 2.4 million tons rise compared to June, as the shipment season gathers pace and soy exports lose momentum, grains traders lobby Anec said on Wednesday.

If confirmed, corn exports for the month would be around 2.5 million tons below July of last year, when Brazil harvested a record second-corn harvest and China was more avidly buying the cereal from the South American nation.

Still, China was Brazil’s top destination for corn exports this year through June, accounting for 20% of all shipments, according to Anec.

Brazil’s second corn, which is sowed after soybeans are harvested on the same areas, is mainly exported in the second half, when it competes with supplies from the United States.

Consultancy Agroconsult on Tuesday pegged Brazil’s second corn production at 100.5 million tons and exports at about 42 million tons. After surveying local corn fields, Agroconsult said lower projected exports this season reflect weaker demand from China and competition from rival suppliers like Argentina and Ukraine.

Anec’s projection is based on shipping schedules. In its most current report, Anec said it is still possible that corn shipments reach 4.3 million metric tons in July, depending on demand.

In the case of soybeans, Anec said shipments are expected to grow by almost 900,000 in July from the same month a year ago. This, however, would be a sharp decline compared to June, as corn begins to take up soy’s space at the busy and frequently congested Brazilian ports.

Soybean shipments were estimated at around 9.5 million tons for the current month, versus 13.9 million tons in June, a volume that set a record for the sixth month of the year and the highest monthly level since May last year.

China was the destination for 75% of Brazilian soybean exports this year through June, Anec said.

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates July 4: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn and soybean production estimates maintained
• The soy harvest has concluded, while wheat planting progress hits 85%

 

Malaysia Palm Reserves Seen at Four-Month High on Low Demand

• Stockpiles advanced 4% to 1.82 million tons in June: survey
• Output hampered by aging trees, weaker yields and poor weather

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably hit the highest level since February as exports from the world’s second-largest grower slumped. Futures closed lower in Kuala Lumpur.

Reserves climbed 4% from a month earlier to 1.82 million tons in June, a third month of gains, according to the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of plantation executives, traders and analysts.

Exports shrank about 10% to 1.24 million tons, according to the survey, the biggest decline since February. Crude palm oil production fell almost 6% to 1.60 million tons, after surging more than 13% in May.

“Exports were bad in June due to shipping problems, such as space constraints in containers,” said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based broker Pelindung Bestari. “Production, on the other hand, was lower due to aging trees and poor yields, as well as volatile weather that complicated harvesting.”

Malaysia’s overseas palm sales may be better in July as shipping problems are expected to ease, Paramalingam said.

 

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 3% Below Normal as of July 4

India has so far received 190.6 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 196.9 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on July 4.

• The northwestern region got 14% below normal rains
• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 13% above normal

 

 

 

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