Global Ag News for June 10.24

TOP HEADLINES

Philippines Bans Bird Imports From Australia Over Bird Flu

The Philippines has banned imports of birds and poultry products from Australia following recent cases of bird flu in the country.

There were reported outbreaks of H7N3 and H7N9 — subtypes of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus — on May 23 and May 25 in the state of Victoria, as confirmed by the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, Manila’s Department of Agriculture said in a statement on Saturday.

In a memorandum signed by Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel on June 6, all shipments of domestic and wild birds from Australia would be allowed provided that they were slaughtered or produced on or before May 9, according to the statement.

Australia is the Southeast Asian nation’s fourth-largest source of imported chicken meat, totaling 5,365 metric tons as of April. During the same period, the Philippines imported 46,987 heads of day-old chicks and 30,780 pieces of hatching eggs, the agriculture department said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 9 1/2 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $2.80; Soyoil down 0.20.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 48 in SRW, down 43 1/2 in HRW, down 42 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal up $2.00; Soyoil down 0.69.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 53 3/4 in SRW, down 52 1/2 in HRW, down 49 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans down 23; Soymeal down $1.20; Soyoil down 2.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.5% in SRW, up 2.3% in HRW, down 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 4.6%; Soybeans down 9.0%; Soymeal down 6.3%; Soyoil down 9.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil up 130; Palm oil up 162; Corn up 21 — Malaysian Palm is down 58. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 58 ringgit (-1.46%) at 3917.

China markets are closed for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 7 were: SRW Wheat down 16,106 contracts, HRW Wheat down 8,943, Corn down 22,704, Soybeans down 13,200, Soymeal down 2,120, Soyoil down 1,902.

 

Northern Plains: Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas stayed favorably dry. But a system will move through on Monday and another will move through on Wednesday with scattered showers. A larger system will move into the region on Friday and likely bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms into the weekend. A storm track farther north is forecast to keep this region active for the rest of June, which could be too wet for some areas.

Central/Southern Plains: A front produced widespread showers and thunderstorms, including some significant severe weather, across the northern half of the region over the weekend. The front will slide south through Texas on Monday. Two systems will move well off to the north of the region this week, but may spread a few showers and thunderstorms anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans, but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area this week.

Midwest: Showers moved across the region over the weekend. Missouri saw areas of heavy rain, but most areas were dry or saw light rain, a favorable occurrence for most areas. Two systems will move through the region this week. And while they will not be very strong, they will bring some rainfall and potential severe weather through the region. Temperatures will waffle with the systems moving through, but will be much more consistently warmer starting this weekend, which could start to stress areas that do not receive a lot of rain. The pattern also gets more active this weekend as well, so dry spots that develop should be very limited for now.

Delta: Scattered showers moved through northern areas over the weekend and a front will sag south on Monday with more. Drier weather is likely for the rest of the week, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region this weekend. Temperatures will be cooler after that front comes through for a few days, but start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being quite warm if and when showers do not develop.

Canadian Prairies: Limited showers went through the region over the weekend, but most areas stayed favorably dry. It was cool though and some patchy light frosts developed in some areas that were able to see winds die down and skies to clear. Temperatures will be much more seasonable this week, but a couple of systems rolling through will bring scattered showers, keeping a lot of areas unfavorably wet. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

Brazil: Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature, but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected all week long, with a front moving into the region this weekend that will produce some rain over southern areas. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

Argentina: A front moved over southern areas over the weekend with limited rainfall, but most areas stayed dry, which is helpful for the remaining corn and soybean harvest. Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in the country to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country on Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month.

Europe: A front brought a zone of showers from northern Spain through western Ukraine over the weekend. This general area stays active with showers through midweek before a system moves the front south into the Mediterranean and brings showers to needed areas in the southeast. South of this front, it has been very warm and eastern areas will find additional warmth returning over the weekend. That comes with another upper-level low-pressure center moving into northwestern Europe and bringing more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months.

Black Sea: A front moved into western Ukraine over the weekend and brought some showers there while it was much drier and hotter to the south and east. The front will generally hang out in western Ukraine most of the week, until it is pushed eastward by a system for late week and weekend. That system is forecast to bring meaningful rainfall to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for heading wheat and developing corn and sunflowers.

Australia: Western areas saw a couple of fronts move through with showers over the weekend while it was drier in the east. One of the front scrapes through southeastern areas with some favorable showers early this week. Models depict another system over western areas early this week, but fizzle it out before getting into eastern areas. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months.

The player sheet for 6/7 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 8,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 104,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a deal on Thursday.
• WHEAT, BARLEY SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 50,000 metric tons of soft wheat and 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 12.

 

 

TODAY

NOPA revises April U.S. soybean crush to 169.436 million bushels

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) revised its April U.S. soybean crush estimate to 169.436 million bushels, up from its previous estimate of 166.034 million bushels, the trade group said on Friday.

The revised April crush was down 13.7% from the record 196.406 million bushels in March and down 2.2% from 173.232 million bushels in April 2023.

It was the lowest monthly soy crush since September, according to data from NOPA, whose members crush about 95% of all soybeans processed in the U.S.

Inaccurately reported soy processing data from Indiana prompted the revision, NOPA said.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of April 30 were revised to 1.832 billion lbs, from the previously reported 1.755 billion lbs and down 1% from the 1.851 billion lbs on hand at the end of March.

 

Brazil’s Tax Change to Shift Soybean Demand to US, Amius Says

• Move would make Brazilian soy exports less competitive
• Two dozen industry groups are fighting the surprise measure

A surprising tax change in agriculture powerhouse Brazil has the potential to make soy grown in the world’s largest bean exporter less competitive with supplies from the US, according to a report from risk management firm Amius Ltd.

The provisional measure, signed Tuesday by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, limits the ability of Brazil’s commodity exporters and processors to monetize tax credits. To compensate, merchants will likely raise soy prices, making beans grown in Brazil less competitive with American soy, at least in the short term.

“In this scenario, there would be a shift in soybean demand to the US, removing Brazil as a competitive source between August and September, thus accelerating the US export program,” Victor Martins, Latin America risk manager for Amius, wrote in the report.

Two dozen industry groups have asked officials in the Lower House and Senate to reject the rule, which has an immediate effect for 120 days. The government will defend the measure, as it’s needed to compensate for an unexpected loss in this year’s budget.

If the government prevails and the rule remains, it could lead to more Brazilian soy exports during the next crop season, Martins wrote, because the measure would discourage domestic consumption.

 

Argentine oilseed workers’ union to strike against proposed labor reform

Argentina’s oilseed union SOEA said on Friday it would kick off a strike to protest a proposed labor reform backed by President Javier Milei.

The strike will begin as soon as the bill hits the Senate floor for debate, the union said. Debate is currently scheduled for June 12.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: International prices drop, but dollar sustains values in Brazil

Soybean prices continue to move down in the international market, influenced by the weather, which has been favoring both the development and the harvest, and by the low demand. In spite of that, values remain firm in Brazil, sustained by the dollar valuation against Real (+1%) and the increase of export premiums.

The pace of trades is slow in the spot market in Brazil. While sellers are away from closing deals, waiting for higher values, purchasers expect international price drops to be transferred to Brazil.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) upped 0.5% from May 29 to June 6, closing at BRL 138.47 per 60-kg bag on June 6. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 0.1%, to close at BRL 133.45 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices downed 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices dropped 0.9% between May 29 and June 6. As for the soy oil, the price remained stable (+0.03%) in the same comparison, at BRL 5.332,13 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on June 6.

EXPORTS – Brazilian soybean shipments totaled 13.45 million tons in May, downing 8.4% compared to April and 13.7% in relation to in May/23 – data from Secex.

CROPS – Conab says that Brazil harvested 98.8% of the 2023/24 area up to June 2.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Harvest progresses, and prices move down

Corn prices are moving down again in most regions surveyed by Cepea, influenced by the harvest, which has been advancing at a faster pace compared to the year before.

Although many producers have started to increase the volume of corn available in the spot market, others continue to limit the supply, since they are concerned with the impacts of the weather on crops. As for the demand, consumers are expecting new price drops and are closing only a few deals. In this scenario, the pace of trades is slow.

From May 29 to June 6, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down 1.7%, closing at BRL 58.27 per 60-kilo bag on June 6. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values decreased 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) between May 29 and June 6.

At the port of Paranaguá (PR), values dropped 2.9% between May 29 and June 6.

According to data from Secex, Brazilian corn exports totaled 421.37 thousand tons in 21 producing days of May, against 384.88 thousand tons in May/23 (22 working days).

Conab says that, up to June 2, the harvest of the second crop reached 3.7% of the total; in the same period of 2023, activities were at 0.7%. As for the summer crop, the harvest hit 81.6% of the area until June 2.

 

Ukraine 2024 grain harvest seen 12% down at 52.76 mln T, analyst says

Ukraine’s 2024 grain harvest is forecast to fall 12% year on year to 52.76 million metric tons, analyst APK-Inform said on Monday, in line with the agriculture ministry’s 52.4 million ton projection.

The consultancy said this year’s harvest could include 19.99 million tons of wheat, 26.77 million tons of corn and 4.51 million tons of barley.

APK-Inform said that grain exports for the 2024/25 July-June season could fall by 26% to 36.16 million tons from 49.02 million tons in 2023/24.

The 2024/25 grain exports are projected to include 12.7 million tons of wheat and 21.3 million tons of corn. For 2023/24, Ukraine is likely to export 28 million tons of corn and 18.2 million tons of wheat.

 

Russia Says Turkish Ban Won’t Affect Its Wheat Exports: Interfax

Russia will not experience difficulties in grain exports due to Turkey’s ban on wheat imports, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Interfax.

NOTE: June 7, Major Wheat Buyer Turkey to Stop Imports for Four Months

Russian exporters need to reallocate about 3m tons of wheat, now they are thinking about where to redirect volumes, Lut says

 

Russia begins shipping wheat to Brazil from port in Leningrad Region

Russia sent its first shipment of wheat to Brazil from the port of Vysotsky in the Leningrad Region at the beginning of June, Rosselkhoznadzor’s grain quality assessment center, whose specialists monitored the shipment, said.

“A shipment of grain to Brazil was shipped from Russian Baltic Sea ports for the first time. A shipment of 31,000 tonnes of wheat was checked in the testing laboratory of the St. Petersburg branch of the Grain Quality Assessment Center Federal State Budgetary Institution. The research results confirmed the compliance of the Russian wheat with the requirements of the importing country,” the center’s director Ruslan Khasanov said.

The laboratory of the St. Petersburg branch has examined 435,000 tonnes of grain sent for export from Leningrad Region ports since the start of the year. More than half of the export grain products examined were 241,000 tonnes of soft wheat (55.4%) bound for Italy, Belgium, Mali, Turkey, Morocco, India, Jordan, Algeria, Cuba and Brazil.

Argentina became the largest supplier of wheat to Brazil in 2023, with supplies reaching 2.3 million tonnes. Exports of Russian wheat to Brazil totaled 929,000 tonnes.

 

Malaysia end-May palm oil stocks rise 0.5%, MPOB says

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at the end of May rose 0.5% from the previous month to 1.75 million metric tons, data from the industry regulator showed on Monday.

Crude palm oil production gained 13.48% from April to 1.70 million tons, while palm oil exports ticked up 11.66% to 1.38 million tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.

A Reuters survey forecast May inventories at 1.75 million tons, with output at 1.65 million tons and exports at 1.41 million tons.

 

US soybean farmers urge policymakers to keep food out of trade war

U.S farmers have asked policymakers not to involve food in a trade war with China, the American Soybean Association told Reuters on Friday, amid growing concerns that tensions between the two nations will dent already faltering agriculture trade.

“I have gone to Washington DC, Capitol Hill and I talk to our legislators, our senators and representatives, I always emphasise with them that this is about food … This is one area that we should keep it separate and keep it clean and not use it as a hammer,” Stan Born, American Soybean Association’s Chair of Trade Policy and International Affairs Advocacy said.

“We produce a surplus, China has a deficit, we can help each other,” he said on the sidelines of a U.S-China agriculture cooperation roundtable held in Shandong on Friday.

U.S President Joe Biden’s last month imposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods from syringes to batteries, raising concerns that it could further harm already shaky U.S. agriculture exports to China. Beijing has vowed retaliation, calling it “bullying”.

Ever since the trade war under the Trump administration, U.S. has significantly lost its market share in China with shipments of products such as soybeans, sorghum and pork getting hit.

American soybean and grains farmers at the event said they are engaging with Chinese buyers on opportunities to strengthen the trade relationship.

“This market is irreplaceable for us … there is no market like the China market, so we are here and we want to make sure our customers know that we will be here,” Adam Schindler, U.S. Grains Council Asia Advisory Team Leader said.

“We want you (China) to know you are important to us, we want you to know you are appreciated by the U.S. farmer,” he said.

The United States is dependent on China for its farm exports but cheaper supplies from Brazil and Argentina has curb its market share.

Macey Mueller, Board Director of the United Sorghum Checkoff Programme said while China remains important, the producer-funded organization is continuing its efforts to diversify markets and enable trade.

 

China’s end-April sow herd at 39.86 million head, down 0.1% q/q

China’s sow herd totalled 39.86 million head at the end of April, down 0.1% from the previous quarter and down 6.9% from the previous year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Sunday.

The number of pigs slaughtered by pig enterprises in the first four months rose 2.3% from the year before to 109.38 million, the ministry said.

 

US Beef Production Up 13.7% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 522m pounds for the week ending June 8 from 459m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 13.7% from a week ago to 614m head
• Pork production up 12.3% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 12.4%
• For the year, beef production is 1.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 0.6% above

 

 

 

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