Global Ag News for June 10th
TODAY—- EXPORT SALES, USDA SUPPLY / DEMAND
Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.46.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 45 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 21 1/2; Soybeans up 22; Soymeal up $0.06; Soyoil up 2.18.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 36 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 67 1/2; Soybeans up 84 3/4; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil up 7.69.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 77 yuan ; Soymeal down 12; Soyoil down 82; Palm oil down 134; Corn up 25 — Malasyian Palm is down 30. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 30 ringgit (-0.78%) at 3841.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers southeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday. East: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.
The player sheet for 6/9 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 9,500 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 9 were: SRW Wheat up 5,362 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,440, Corn up 7,425, Soybeans down 6,754, Soymeal up 650, Soyoil up 2,760.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 868 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
- WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought about 480,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy some 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 25, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 16.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 181,355 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
- WHEAT BRAN TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 20,000 tonnes of wheat bran.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued international tenders to buy a total 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
- Corn est. range 400k – 1,000k tons, with avg of 738k
- Soybean est. range 100k – 550k tons, with avg of 297k
Brazil’s imports of Argentine corn start to arrive
The first shipments of Argentine corn have begun to arrive in Brazil to where a national crop failure, record high prices and high demand from the meat industry has made companies such as BRF Brasil Foods SA and JBS SA turn to imports.
A shipment of about 35,000 tonnes landed at the end of May at the port of Paranaguá and a second shipment of about 30,000 tonnes arrived in Rio Grande in the middle of last week, according to the maritime agency Cargonave.
California Port Congestion Looks to Affect Grain Shipments
A buildup of empty shipping containers at the three major ports in California is slowing up the ability of US grain exporters to meet the sizable uptick in global demand, says the American Farm Bureau Federation. According to data from the Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland ports, shipments are up 36% from this time last year–but congestion at the port has extended lead times for shipping out by as much as sixfold.
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.9% to 19.96M Bbl
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 19.698 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.067m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.036m
12.12% more wheat procured this year so far: Centre
The procurement of wheat this year has gone up by 12.12 percent so far in comparison to the corresponding period last year, at 418.47 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) against 373.22 LMT, an official statement said on Wednesday.
About 46 lakh farmers benefitted from the ongoing wheat procurement from the ongoing RMS procurement operations with MSP value of Rs 82,648.38 crore, a Food and Consumer Affairs Ministry statement said.
According to the statement, government agencies also procured 7,80,432.88 MT of pulses and oilseeds on MSP.
EU Wheat Exports Seen Buoyed by Large Harvest: Strategie Grains
Large wheat crops are expected in Europe for the 2021-22 season, although the harvest may be later than usual, consultant Strategie Grains says in a note.
- Corn’s growing season started with “sluggish” crop development, but now there are good conditions almost everywhere
- EU soft-wheat exports now seen at 28.6m tons, up 1.7m tons y/y
- Estimate increased due to good competitiveness of Romanian and Bulgarian supply for early-season contracts
- Stockpiles could rise by more than 2m tons, creating “a much more balanced” EU supply situation
- At the world level, wheat supply and demand are in “precarious equilibrium” for 2021-22 season
- Import outlook is rising due to reduced harvests in the Middle East
- Stocks-to-use ratio across major exporters is seen falling from the prior year
IKAR ups 2021 Russian corn harvest forecast to 15.1 mln tonnes – Interfax Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised its forecast for the corn harvest in Russia this year from 14.5 million to 15.1 million tonnes, IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko told Interfax.
- This year’s corn harvest could thus be the second biggest after the one in 2016, which amounted to 15.3 million tonnes.
- In 2020, Russia harvested 13.9 million tonnes of corn against 14.3 million tonnes in 2019.
China Sees Less Corn Demand on Increased Use of Other Grains
China cut its estimate for corn consumption in the year ending September by 3 million tons from a month earlier because of rising imports of barley, sorghum and distillers’ dried grains and more use of domestic wheat to replace corn, according to an expert committee from the agriculture ministry.
The outlook committee kept corn import estimates unchanged at 20 million tons each for this marketing year and next, but revised up cotton imports in the current year by 200,000 tons because of strong textile export orders.
- Estimate for domestic corn demand in 2021-22 kept unchanged at 293.7m tons; that compares with 286m tons in the current year
- Soybean imports and output unchanged from last month’s estimate
- Imports seen rising 1.6% from a year earlier to 102m tons in 2021-22
- Domestic output estimated at 18.6m tons in 2021-22, down from 19.6m tons year earlier
Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports -6% M/m to 1.27M Tons: Details
Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 6% to 1.3 million tons in May from a month earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board posted on its website.
Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports to India +6.2% M/m: Details
Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 6% to 1.27 million tons in May from a month earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board posted on its website.
- Exports to India +6.2% m/m to 386,000 tons, +602.3% y/y
- Exports to China +30% m/m to 144,537 tons, -36% y/y
- Exports to EU +58.7% m/m to 146,526 tons, -3.3% y/y
Malaysia May Palm Stockpiles +1.5% M/m to 1.57M Tons: MPOB
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, rose 1.5% to 1.57 million tons in May from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
- Palm oil exports -6% m/m to 1.27m tons
- Imports -19% m/m to 89,014 tons
- Crude palm oil production +2.8% m/m to 1.57m tons
Malaysia’s June 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 402,520 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments fell 14.3% from 469,875 tons exported during May 1-10, according to AmSpec Agri on Thursday.
Malaysia June 1-10 Palm Oil Exports -10.04% M/m: Intertek
Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 10.04% m/m during June 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Kazakhstan intends to export 8 mln tonnes of grain in 2021/2022 marketing year
Kazakhstan intends to export 8 million tonnes of grain and flour in grain equivalent In the 2021/2022 marketing year, the Agriculture Minister Saparkhan Omarov told reporters when asked about the government export plans for the next marketing year. Kazakhstan harvested over 20.06 million tonnes of grain in clean weight in 2020 and 17.4 million tonnes in 2019, according to the agriculture ministry.
Supportive satellite imagery and improved weather raise EU rapeseed production – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2021/22 EU-27 + UK RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 18.0 [16.6–20.0] million tons, up 2% from last update
Review of updated satellite imagery, recent and expected weather and improved soil moisture raise 2021/22 EU-27 + UK rapeseed production by 2% to 18.0 million tons.
In spite of freeze damages in late winter and early spring, adequate soil moisture and recent and expected warm temperatures favor rapeseed maturation in the eastern Europe.
Cotton industry is trying to poach farmers to increase acreage as farmers may opt for edible oils due to record prices
A rally in both cooking oil prices, including soybeans and cotton, to a 11-year high has worried cotton traders that acreage for cotton could fall as farmers choose the smaller crop cycles of oilseeds and pulses. However, production cost of soyabean is less as farmers use their own seeds. Besides, pesticide and labour costs are also lesser in soyabean as compared to cotton.
Given the situation, the cotton industry is busy poaching farmers from other competing commodities as sowing advances with the progress of monsoon. Cotton prices have increased to more than Rs 7000 per quintal as against the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 5825/quintal for long staple cotton. While prices of soyabean seeds are ruling above Rs 7000/quintal as against MSP of Rs 3880/quintal.
Corteva CEO Sees Multi-Year Cycle for Stronger Crop Prices
Grain prices will remain higher than in recent years, even as corn backs down from the eight-year high touched last month, Corteva CEO Jim Collins told the Deutsche Bank Basic Materials Virtual Conference.
- Prices will be buoyed over the next few years by recovering energy demand and the reopening of restaurants after months of pandemic-driven lockdowns: Collins
- On corn prices: “Whether it’s low-$6 in 2022 and mid-$5 in 2023, even those rates are still at very constructive levels”
- Brazilian orders are doing “really well” and they’re seeing an “earlier and earlier” order book there
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