Global Ag News for June 5.24

TOP HEADLINES

China’s Sinograin to increase wheat buying in major production areas

China’s state-owned agricultural stockpiler Sinograin said on Wednesday it will increase the scale of wheat buying in major production areas to add to its stockpiles.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil unchanged.

For the week and month so far wheat prices are down 19 1/4 in SRW, down 21 1/2 in HRW, down 13 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 22 1/2; Soymeal down $9.00; Soyoil down 1.90.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.0% in SRW, up 7.0% in HRW, up 0.4% in HRS; Corn is down 6.4%; Soybeans down 8.6%; Soymeal down 7.8%; Soyoil down 8.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil down 30; Palm oil up 4; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is down 19. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 19 ringgit (-0.48%) at 3902.

There were changes in registrations (-15 Soymeal). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 4 were: SRW Wheat down 4,713 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,125, Corn up 10,335, Soybeans up 10,414, Soymeal down 7,194, Soyoil up 1,347.

Northern Plains: Drier weather is expected afterward for the rest of the week, though we may see some showers over southern areas this weekend. The drier weather is preferred in some areas of the eastern Dakotas for the remaining planting and crop condition. Temperatures will generally be warm west and cool east, but not cold enough for frosts.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent precipitation has been more widespread and gone through some of the drought areas with good rainfall amounts. A stalled front in the region will produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday with potential continuing into early next week as it drifts south. Though some areas of flooding have and will continue to develop, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for early growth.

Midwest: A system will bring heavy rains across Wisconsin Wednesday will bring more scattered showers. An upper-level low that will park itself in the region may continue showers around the Great Lakes into next week but amounts after Wednesday look to be light and scattered, allowing many areas to dry out for the remaining planting or replanting. Temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a couple of degrees. Soil moisture remains high in most areas for early growth.

Delta: Scattered showers and heavy rain moved through over the weekend and Monday and chances for more on Wednesday. Drier conditions should develop afterward, though a stalled front could produce more rainfall this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will trend mild to even a couple of degrees below normal, keeping stress low for developing crops.

Canadian Prairies: Eastern areas may see showers continuing for another couple of days, but drier conditions are likely through the weekend. Recent showers may not have been enough to delay the rest of planting but may have been an annoyance for those doing work. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions. The storm track may shift to be more into the region by the middle of the month.

Brazil: Dry conditions with increasing temperatures continue to be unfavorable for safrinha corn areas that are heading more toward maturity. Southern areas are being allowed to continue to see flood waters recede and soils dry out. Some winter wheat planting may start up, but the damage to infrastructure and continued wet soils probably keep this a slow prospect.

Argentina: Dry conditions have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas later this week and weekend with more potential for next week, but generally look light and still unfavorable for wheat.

Europe: An upper-level low that has brought showers to central Europe recently is drifting eastward, but another front will push through the continent and settle west-east from northern Spain to western Ukraine later this week, producing a zone which will see scattered showers continuing into next week. Some of these areas will welcome the rain while others will not. Heat south of the front may be stressful for those that are drier.

Black Sea: Hot and dry conditions continue to be a concern for both heading winter wheat and developing corn and sunflowers. A front will move into northwestern areas and stall this week, bringing favorable showers through. But most wheat areas will stay unfavorably hot and dry going into next week.

Australia: Precipitation has increased recently as more systems are moving through the country instead of south of it. A system will bring some rainfall to eastern areas Thursday, another front looks like it’ll go through western areas Thursday and Friday with another over the weekend that is likely to get into eastern areas next week. With the switch to La Nina continuing to develop, the prospect for rainfall should continue to increase over the next few months, very favorable for crop establishment and development with time.

The player sheet for 6/4 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Tuesday it bought 470,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 180,000 tons of Romanian wheat, 120,000 tons of French wheat, 120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat and 50,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat.
• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, has purchased about 800,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday.
• CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 133,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in an international tender on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 103,767 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 31 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.063m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.439m bbl vs 23.207m a week ago

 

EU Soft-Wheat Export Fall 5% Y/y in Season Through June 2

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled 28.2m tons by June 2, compared with 29.6m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco with 3.77m tons, Nigeria at 3.07m tons and Algeria with 2.57m tons
• Barley exports were at 5.44m tons, down 13% y/y
• Corn imports were at 17.1m tons, down 32% y/y

 

India 2023-24 Wheat Output Seen Rising to 112.9M Tons: Ministry

Wheat production in the world’s second-biggest grower may increase from last year’s 110.6 million tons, the agriculture ministry said in a statement Tuesday.

• India’s rice production is estimated at 136.7 million tons, up from 135.8 million a year earlier, according to third advance estimates by the ministry
• Corn output likely at 35.67 million tons
• Oilseeds production estimated at 39.59 million tons
• Cotton output is predicted at 32.52 million bales of 170kg each
• Sugar cane production is seen at 442.52 million tons
• Total food grain output in 2023-24 likely at 328.85 million tons, slightly lower than a year ago

 

Russia Still Sees 2024 Grain Harvest at 132m Tons, Minister Says

Russia maintains its 2024 grain harvest outlook at 132m tons, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said at the government meeting with President Vladimir Putin via video-link.

Grain export seen at 60m tons in coming agricultural season

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Rises in May: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 108 points in May from 99 in April, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• This is the biggest monthly increase since June 2023
• Current conditions component improved by 6 points from April
• Future expectations up by 11 points
• “Strengthening crop prices was a factor in this month’s sentiment improvement,” according to the report’s authors James Mintert and Michael Langemeier

 

CENTRAL-WEST BRAZIL WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF 2ND CROP CORN DEVELOPMENT

LSEG Commodities Research & Forecast

What to Watch:

• Increasingly warm temperatures and a split rainfall pattern will overspread Argentina into mid-June
• Warmth and dryness will dominate across Brazil through the next 10 days, leading to intensifying drought in the Central-West region
• Worsening drought will have very negative impacts on the remainder of 2nd crop corn development, while Argentina warmth will facilitate wheat plantings

FORECAST

DISCUSSION: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) will increasingly move into a negative phase event through the end of the 15-day forecast. This will support the potential for heightened cold risks in South America beyond 10 days as an item to monitor. On numerical model performance, the EC has recently outperformed the GFS in South America. Therefore, the EC is the preferred forecast model. Numerical model performance has been declining of late, making for a low confidence 10-day forecast.

ARGENTINA: Persistently warm temperatures and a split rainfall pattern are in store for Argentina into mid-June. Temperatures will be 5-10 °C above normal throughout the next 10 days in a widespread pattern, with the warmest anomalies focused on the northern regions. 10-day rainfall totals will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) wetter than normal from southern Buenos Aires southward, while areas to the north will be 20-40 mm (~0.8-1.6 in) drier than normal. Beyond 10 days, uncertainty is high as the AAO suggests the potential return of cold risks, while this is not yet appearing in numerical model guidance. Warm conditions and moderate rains over most of the Pampas will be favorable for Argentina wheat planting progress in the forecast until at least late in the month.

BRAZIL: Warmth and dryness will largely prevail over Brazil during the next 1-2 weeks. Temperatures will be 3-7 °C above normal spanning the country throughout the next 10 days, with the warmest anomalies focused on the South region of Brazil. 10-day rainfall totals will be 20-40 mm (~0.8-1.6 in) below normal in a pattern of widespread dryness, with the driest conditions centered on Parana (see figure below). Beyond 10 days, somewhat cooler are likely to move into at least the central and northern areas of Brazil based on the AAO and AI model guidance. Intensifying drought will have very negative impacts on 2nd crop corn through the balance of its development as the main impact from this forecast.

 

 

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