Global Ag News for June 6.24

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine keeping grain forecast despite poor weather, minister says

Ukraine has maintained its grain harvest forecast for 2024 at 52.4 million metric tons despite bad weather in May, acting Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Thursday.

Weather forecasters and agricultural scientists have said severe frosts in the first half of May and an ensuing drought in most regions of Ukraine created unfavourable conditions for all crops and may affect the harvest.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 0.65.

For the week and month so far wheat prices are down 31 3/4 in SRW, down 32 in HRW, down 25 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 24; Soymeal down $3.80; Soyoil down 1.74.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.0% in SRW, up 5.4% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is down 5.8%; Soybeans down 8.7%; Soymeal down 6.5%; Soyoil down 8.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans down 32 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil up 24; Palm oil up 28; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 63. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 63 ringgit (+1.61%) at 3969.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 5 were: SRW Wheat down 4,394 contracts, HRW Wheat up 675, Corn up 20,572, Soybeans up 11,616, Soymeal down 8,867, Soyoil up 6,672.

 

Northern Plains: Despite some isolated showers being possible at times, drier weather is expected for most areas through the middle of next week. The drier weather is preferred in some areas of the eastern Dakotas for the remaining planting and boosting crop conditions. Temperatures will generally be warm west and cool east, but not cold enough for frosts. The pattern gets more active again late next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent precipitation has been more widespread and gone through some of the drought areas with good rainfall amounts. After a couple of dry days, a stalled front in the region will produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday with potential continuing into early next week as it drifts south. Though some areas of flooding have developed, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for early growth in most areas.

Midwest: A system continues to cross the region Wednesday with more scattered showers in an active pattern that has left many areas very wet. An upper-level low that will park itself in the region may continue showers around the Great Lakes through the weekend, and a small system may move through early-to-mid next week but amounts after today look to be light and scattered, allowing many areas to dry out for the remaining planting or replanting. Temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a couple of degrees. Soil moisture remains high in most areas for early growth.

Delta: Scattered showers and heavy rain that have been moving through the region recently continue on Wednesday. Drier conditions should develop afterward, though a stalled front could produce more rainfall this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will trend mild to even a couple of degrees below normal, keeping stress low for developing crops.

Canadian Prairies: Isolated to scattered showers went through the region over the last few days. Eastern areas may see showers continuing for another couple of days, but drier conditions are likely through the weekend. Recent showers may not have been enough to delay the rest of planting, but may have been an annoyance for those doing work. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions. Models disagree about the precipitation forecast for next week, but the storm track is likely to shift back into the region by the end of next week.

Brazil: Dry conditions with increasing temperatures continue to be unfavorable for safrinha corn areas that are still immature, but most of the crop is heading more toward maturity and early harvest has started. Southern areas are being allowed to continue to see flood waters recede and soils to dry out. Some winter wheat planting may start up, but the damage to infrastructure and continued wet soils probably keep this slow.

Argentina: Dry conditions have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas later this week and weekend with more potential for next week, but generally look light and still unfavorable for wheat.

 

The player sheet for 6/5 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 103,767 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a deal on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT SALES UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased between 810,000 and 840,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 12.

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 30.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,015k
• Soybean est. range 150k – 800k tons, with avg of 390k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.7% to 23.052M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.439 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.072m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.063m

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 12.08 Million Tns In June Versus 13.84 Million Tns In The Same Month Last Year -Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 12.08 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 13.84 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR -ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.98 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 2.20 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR -ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.05 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.23 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR -ANEC

 

SovEcon Lowers Russian Wheat Crop Forecast to 80.7 Million Tons

SovEcon lowered its estimate for Russia’s wheat harvest this year to 80.7m tons, from a previous forecast of 82.1m tons, it said in a statement.

• Cites deteriorating crop conditions following hot and dry weather after May frosts that has lowered yield potential
• Planting of spring wheat in Siberia has also been slowed due to rain
• SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said it’s possible that its forecast could be lowered to below 80m tons

 

Brazil Fertilizers Stable to Firm as Soybean Demand Continues

Fertilizer prices in Brazil were steady for potash and higher for urea, ammonium sulfate and phosphate in an active buying period, with sellers focused primarily on potash and phosphates for soybean application. Nitrogen gains were fueled by firming international prices in early June, while tight supply boosted phosphate prices.

 

India Becomes Fertilizer-Market Driver Ahead of Monsoon Season

Prices for ammonia were down at Tampa and in the US Midwest as spring demand slowed, while urea strengthened at New Orleans and internationally as gas shortages idled production in Egypt. Fertilizer futures point to higher 3Q phosphate prices as India pits sellers against buyers in a gamble for lower-cost tons.

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.