Global Ag News for Mar 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina’s planned corn shipments hit five-year high -exchange

Argentina’s scheduled corn exports hit their highest levels in at least five years in the early part of 2024, the Rosario grains exchange said on Friday, hitting 1.9 million metric tons and boosted by leftover stocks from the previous season.

The exchange predicts the 2023/24 season will produce a record 57 million-metric ton harvest, helped by favorable rainfall. Farmers in the South American country, the world’s No. 3 supplier, began harvesting the crop last week.

The figure, based on shipping agency data as of March 6, signals the largest committed volume seen in at least last five years, the exchange said in a weekly report.

On March 1, the first day of the commercial campaign, the exchange said warehouses stocked some 9.6 million metric tons of corn, a “carryover” from the previous season some 10% above the previous five-year average.

This compared to 10.3 million-metric ton carryover in the 2022/23 season and comes despite a historic drought that devastated last year’s harvests. The exchange said reserves remained high thanks to an adjustment of exports and stable domestic demand.

The exchange also reported a significant growth in traffic of trucks carrying corn to ports, up 120% year-on-year to over 45,300 vehicles between February and the first week of March.

Soybean crushing also saw a strong rebound in February, the exchange added, with activity up 17% year-on-year despite a 5% contraction from the previous month. The exchange predicts a soy harvest of some 49.5 million metric tons.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 0.35.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 25 1/2 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 26 1/4; Soymeal up $5.70; Soyoil up 1.35.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 37 3/4 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans up 40 1/2; Soymeal up $10.00; Soyoil up 1.31.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.1% in SRW, down 5.4% in HRW, down 9.1% in HRS; Corn is down 9.5%; Soybeans down 9.5%; Soymeal down 11.6%; Soyoil down 4.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 35; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 18; Corn down 20 — Malaysian Palm is up 43.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 43 ringgit (+1.05%) at 4137.

There were changes in registrations (-77 SRW Wheat, 60 Soybeans). Registration total: 563 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 61 Corn; 664 Soybeans; 711 Soyoil; 100 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 8 were: SRW Wheat down 2,843 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,369, Corn up 9,406, Soybeans down 3,928, Soymeal up 3,286, Soyoil up 2,056.

Brazil: Scattered showers fell across large portions of central and southern Brazil over the weekend, favorable for crops, especially newly-planted safrinha corn. Scattered showers will be more frequent across central and northern Brazil this week. Southern areas will be unfavorably drier but should see a front moving north out of Argentina this weekend or early next week with beneficial showers.

Argentina: Scattered showers went through a good portion of the country over the weekend and set a front into the middle of the country that will get stuck and produce scattered showers throughout the week, favorable for filling corn and soybeans. The front will move into northern areas this weekend where it will probably remain active into next week.

Europe: A large low-pressure system moved into the continent over the weekend with widespread showers that continue through midweek. Other systems will scrape through northern areas later this week and weekend. Good rain has fallen across the south recently, favoring early-developing winter wheat. This week’s rain should help other areas as well, though France remains too wet and could use some drier conditions, but that is not on the table right now. Temperatures continue to be mild to warm and wheat should continue to develop early.

Black Sea: Sub-freezing temperatures moved into the region over the weekend, but wheat is not developed enough to have been damaged by the frost. A system will move through the region with isolated to scattered showers. Though they are not all that widespread, soil moisture in the region is favorable. Temperatures will be rising later this week and most of the crop is in favorable condition.

Australia: Agricultural areas in Australia were dry over the weekend. Southeastern areas should see some showers later this week, but will be light and not very helpful for building soil moisture as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and producers get started with harvest. Soil moisture continues to be low ahead of the winter wheat and canola planting period, which starts in mid-April. The reduction of El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year, however.

Northern Plains: Above-normal temperatures will be in place this week, melting what remains of last week’s snow. A system will scrape southern areas of the region Wednesday and Thursday. A clipper system is likely to move through on Friday with more showers and a quick burst of cold air. Models are unsure how long the cold may stick around, but additional clipper systems moving through could reinforce that cold air going through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Friday’s snow has almost melted away over the weekend, though areas that saw near or over a foot in northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska still remains. It will not last long with warm temperatures in the region this week. A stronger storm system is forecast to move into the region on Wednesday with scattered showers through at least Friday, but an upper-level low-pressure center could keeps showers in the region through the weekend. Models are unsure about that. A cold front will skip through the region over the weekend and bring a burst of colder air through, but models are also unsure how long that will last.

Midwest: A system went through over the weekend with widespread showers, which was heavy in some drier areas, but not in Iowa, where deficits still remain large. A weak front will go through on Tuesday with potential showers and thunderstorms, but would be limited. A bigger system will affect the region on Wednesday and Thursday and be followed by a clipper Friday through the weekend with more widespread precipitation. Amounts may not be heavy where it’s needed to be in the west, however. Temperatures will be warm this week but much colder behind the clipper going into next week. Models disagree on how cold and for how long, though.

Delta: A system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the region late last week and another system will do something similar later this week as well. Soil moisture continues to be much improved and in good shape prior to spring planting. Soil temperatures are supportive of planting, but a risk of colder temperatures moving in behind a strong cold front this weekend should limit any early activity.

The player sheet for 3/8 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE CANCELED: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday reported exporters canceled the sale of 110,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year. It marked the second cancellation in two days: On Thursday, exporters also canceled the sale of 130,000 metric tons of SRW wheat to China for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: The highest price offered in the tender from Turkey’s state grain board TMO to sell and export 150,000 metric tons of durum wheat which closed on Monday was assessed at $315 a ton FOB.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 180,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• SUGAR TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is seeking 50,000 tonnes of raw cane sugar of any origin in an international tender, it said in a statement. The deadline for offers is March 9, with arrival set for April 15-30 and/or May 1-15.
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to sell and export 150,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by Aug. 29, via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on March 13.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,400 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 

 

TODAY

 

Brazil Farmers Harvest 52.67% Of 2023/2024 Soybean Area Versus 53.44% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 52.67% OF 2023/2024 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 53.44% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Global demand is firm; prices move up in BR

The firm demand, especially from abroad, has been boosting the pace of soybean trades in both the spot market and to deliver in the next months. Players from the industry in Brazil are also purchasing in order to guarantee part of inventories. Moreover, these players are concerned with uncertainties regarding the soy output, since productivity has been irregular in many Brazilian states. The competition between domestic and international consumers has increased.

Brazilian soy exports were already moving at a good pace in February; however, they involved the grain from term contracts. Secex data indicate that 6.6 million tons were shipped in February, the highest volume in six months and a record for the month. Compared to January/24 and February/23, increases are 131.52% and 31.7%, respectively.

From February 29 to March 7, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) rose 3.5%, closing at BRL 119.50 per 60-kg bag on March 7. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 3.1%, to close at BRL 114.11 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices moved up 2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

BYPRODUCTS – The demand of the local industry for soybeans is linked to the need of soybean oil from the biodiesel sector. As for soybean meal, values have oscillated, but decreases prevailed. Consumers are unwilling to set large inventories, based on the possible higher supply, due to firm demand for soybean oil – every ton of soybean processed generates roughly 78% of soybean meal and 19% of soybean oil.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices dropped 0.8% in the last seven days. The Brazilian value of soy oil increased 3.7%, at 5,027.35 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on March 7 – quotations had not reached the BRL 5,000/ton level since late January this year.

CROPS – Conab indicates that the soy harvest hit 47.3% of the area in Brazil up to March 3, higher than the 43.9% observed a year ago.

CORN/CEPEA: Liquidity is low; international increases boost prices in BR

Purchasers are unwilling to trade corn, while sellers are focused on delivering soybean. Despite the low liquidity, domestic quotations have been registering slight increases because of international price rises.

Considering areas surveyed by Cepea, corn values rose especially in regions in São Paulo, where stocks are low, and in Santa Catarina, where unfavorable weather conditions affected sowing activities, reducing the productivity. In regions where prices decreased, such as Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, the reason is the firm harvest pace.

PRICES – Between February 29 and March 7, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved up 1%, closing at BRL 62.84/bag on March 7. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values downed 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors), but rose 0.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) over the last seven days.

PORTS – Despite the low demand, which is usual for the period, international price rises sustained quotations at ports at the beginning of this week. However, dollar decreases ended up pressing values. From Feb. 29 to March 7, the price average at Paranaguá port (Paraná state) downed 1%.

In February, Brazil shipped 1.71 million tons, 25% lower than that verified in February/23. according to data from Secex.

CROPS – The summer crop harvest hit 29.4% of the area in Brazil up to March 3, for an advance of 4.5 percentage points in one week. The second crop planting, in turn, reached 73.7% of the total, 14.7 p.p. above in the same comparison – data from Conab.

Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Stockpiles Fall to 1.92m Tons: MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories fell to 1.92m tons in Feb. from 2.02m tons in Jan., according to data posted by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Palm oil production dropped to 1.26m tons from 1.4m tons
• Exports declined to 1.02m tons from 1.35m tons

US Pork Production Falls 3.8% This Week, Beef Down: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 530m pounds for the week ending March 9 from 551m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter down 3.6% from a week ago to 2.456m head
• Beef production down 2.6% from a week ago, cattle slaughter falls 2.7%
• For the year, beef production is 4.5% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 0.7% above

Early Spring Drains Inventories, Pushing Fertilizer Prices Up

US nitrogen and phosphate prices strengthened as warm weather prompted the onset of pre-planting applications, testing available supplies at many inland terminals. An early spring start gives farmers more time to consume inputs, supporting sales for producers like CF, Nutrien and Mosaic. China’s declining energy prices are increasing nitrogen profitability, sending urea production soaring.

Early Demand Strains Supply, Pushing US Fertilizer Prices Higher

Tight supply pushed nitrogen and phosphate prices higher in the US as spring demand gets off to an early start. Corn Belt ammonia jumped $25-$45 a short ton from last week, while urea prices were up $20/st at most terminals. Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) also climbed on very tight supply, with NOLA barges moving up $30-$35/st from last week and some terminals withdrawing prices or allocating tons until inventories are restocked. Ammonium sulfate moved up $10-$15/st at NOLA and inland, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) barges soared to a high of $690/st for prompt tons, well above the prior week’s $620 peak. Ammonium nitrate prices also jumped $60-$70/st at some Corn Belt warehouses in the wake of the rapidly firming nitrogen markets. Potash was the anomaly, with prices staying flat at NOLA and inland amid tepid demand.

 

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