Global Ag News for Mar 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canadian farmers face two-front trade war as China duties take effect

• Chinese tariffs on Canadian farm products kick in March 20
• Canadian farmers buying less new equipment, manufacturers say
• Farmer demand for low-cost loans surging, growers group says

Canadian farmers are facing a two-front trade war, with China’s tariffs on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas taking effect on Thursday and U.S. tariffs expected on additional Canadian products within two weeks.

The double whammy from two major trading partners makes for a grim mood going into spring planting.

“This is a terrible time,” said Calgary area farmer Tara Sawyer of the Chinese tariffs.

“The seed has already been bought. The inputs have already been bought. We have to seed it. We have no choice but to move forward,” said Sawyer, who grows barley, wheat and canola.

China announced on March 8 that tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products would kick in on March 20, retaliating against levies Ottawa introduced in October.

The levies match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products just over four months ago.

China said it would apply a 100% tariff to just over $1 billion of Canadian canola oil, canola meal cakes and pea imports, and a 25% duty on $1.6 billion worth of Canadian aquatic products and pork. It excluded unprocessed canola seed, also known as rapeseed.

Canada’s trade ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. On March 8, the trade ministry said Canada was disappointed with the tariff announcement and remained open to dialogue with Chinese officials.

China also has an ongoing anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola seed exports, which make up the vast majority of Canada’s canola exports to China.

China is the No. 1 export market for Canadian canola seed, and No. 2 for meal exports, after the U.S.

China’s announcement came in the middle of an escalating trade war with the U.S., where President Donald Trump on March 6 delayed a broad 25% tariff on some Canadian goods for 30 days.

Trump has since imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and threatened reciprocal tariffs on additional goods including Canadian dairy and lumber on April 2.

Machinery manufacturers at a Canadian farm show said farmers are buying less new equipment, citing low crop prices and the risks of tariffs.

Farmers appear to be getting defensive with finances, securing cheap loans to fund this year’s crop, but backing away from major purchases.

The Canadian Canola Growers Association, which provides government-backed zero-interest and low-interest loans, reported seeing a surge in loan applications.

“We’re definitely seeing a lot more demand,” said Dave Gallant, a vice president at CCGA.

“A lot of our customers are very concerned about whether they’re going to be able to sell their product this year, and what the prices are going to be.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.22.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $8.00; Soyoil up 0.90.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 in SRW, up 14 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil down 1.63.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 1.3% in SRW, up 5.1% in HRW, up 1.6% in HRS; Corn is up 2.1%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 3.2%; Soyoil up 6.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 3 yuan; Soymeal down 33; Soyoil down 10; Palm oil up 26; Corn up 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 37.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 37 ringgit (-0.84%) at 4376.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.54%) at 4389.There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 20 were: SRW Wheat up 4,254 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,134, Corn down 1,982, Soybeans up 14,050, Soymeal up 3,145, Soyoil up 3,747.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 20 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Soil moisture content across Northern Plains remains at 6-year lows and the last precipitation forecasts do not carry the chance for improvement
• SOUTH AMERICA: Wet conditions expected over the Pampas in late March and early April pose a risk to corn/soybean harvest progress
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Weather forecasts remain neutral for key Robusta coffee areas in Vietnam, without meaningful impacts on the harvest
• BLACK SEA: Much-needed rainfall is likely to arrive in Ukraine next week, though the main activity may bypass winter wheat regions in the east and south

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in Brazil

 

Northern Plains: A couple of smaller systems will move through Friday into next week, but with limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through the large precipitation events that are needed to reduce it.

 

Central/Southern Plains: A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for Friday into early next week, but will produce very little for the region. Southwestern wheat areas are not forecast to see much of any significant precipitation until maybe next weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

 

Midwest West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Monday.

 

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers Friday night-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, variable Saturday-Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

 

The player sheet for 3/20 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally purchased about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil in a tender seeking the same volume which closed on Thursday
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: A state grains buyer in Syria is considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat, with no purchase yet made.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending March 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 270k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 503k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Guatemala with 175k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending March 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 4.7k tons of the 18.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentina grains exchange cuts soybean forecast by a million tons

A leading grains exchange in Argentina cut its forecast for the country’s 2024/2025 soybean crop by a million metric tons on Thursday as the impact of a drought becomes clearer.

The Buenos Aires exchange now sees the crop’s output hitting 48.6 million tons, down from its forecast of 49.6 million tons published last week.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

The exchange said the smaller than expected output was due to a drought that has reduced yields in the country’s northeast.

“High temperatures and the prolonged water deficit have caused heat and water stress, primarily affecting the NEA (northeastern Argentina),” the exchange said in its weekly crop report.

“These adverse conditions have significantly impacted plant stands and the growth of reproductive structures, reducing yield potential by 22%,” the exchange added.

About 10% of Argentina’s total area sown with soybeans is in the northeast, or about 1.86 million hectares (4.60 million acres).

Regarding the 2024/25 corn crop, the exchange said the drought, which is also affecting northwestern Argentina and the northern part of Cordoba province, “has led to a 40% drop in expected yields compared to the previous estimate.”

However, because of a technical adjustment which saw the estimate of the area planted with corn this season growing 7.6% to 7.1 million hectares, the exchange held its harvest forecast for the cereal at 49 million tons.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

 

Global Grain Stockpiles Seen Little Changed Next Season: IGC

Global grain stockpiles are expected to total 578m tons in the 2025-26 season, up about 1m tons y/y, according to the International Grains Council’s first forecasts for the coming year.

• Production is expected to reach 2.37b tons versus 2.31b tons in 2024-25
• Consumption should climb to 2.37b tons from 2.34b tons
• For wheat, inventories are seen falling to 259m tons in 2025-26, from 265m tons
  • Output and demand are both forecast to expand
  • NOTE: The IGC last month said another drawdown in wheat stockpiles was expected
• For corn, inventories are forecast to increase to 280m tons, from 274m ton

 

Argentine oilseed workers return to work after payments promised on overdue wages

Argentine oilseed workers lifted a strike and returned to work at soybean processing plants belonging to conglomerate Vicentin after the firm scheduled payments for overdue wages, union SOEA said on Thursday.

The union had initiated the strike last week at Vicentin’s plants, temporarily disrupting soy processing in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

On Wednesday, workers received 75% of what they were still owed from February, and next Wednesday they will receive the remaining 25%, SOEA Secretary Martin Morales told Reuters.

“We are willing to work as long as we get paid. We want to move forward,” Morales added, while mentioning the difficulties that Vicentin has faced.

The company has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2020 after defaulting on more than $1 billion in payments.

Workers had been calling on Vicentin to pay their salary for last month after the company paid just a fraction of what was owed, citing a “critical financial situation.”

Morales said that on Wednesday, SOEA will meet with grains processors and exporters’ chamber CIARA-CEC to continue separate talks on wage increases for soybean processing workers across the country.

 

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD HAVE MIXED IMPACTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IN APRIL

What to Watch:

• Warmth could prevail in many regions next month, though uncertainty is higher in some areas
• Consensus for dry weather across much of the U.S.

APRIL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Crop Impacts (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans):  Crop impacts in April will be largely centred around winter wheat development and early corn & soybean plantings. Given the potential for widespread warm and dry conditions, winter wheat development could be impeded some from a soil moisture perspective, though warmth should ward off concerns for frost/freeze issues. Elsewhere, warm and dry weather in most corn/soy producing areas will act favorably for early planting progress, though at the same time raising concerns for inadequate soil moisture reserves, especially given current deficits across most regions. As noted below in the temperature outlook, there is higher uncertainty for the areas of forecasted cool weather, and a swing towards warmer weather in those regions could certainly take place.

Temperature Outlook: The forecasted temperature anomalies for April in North America (Figure 1) feature the potential for warmth prevailing across the Midwest U.S., central Plains, the Northeast U.S., as well as eastern Canada. Well above normal temperatures are also expected in the Southwest U.S. during the next month. Two areas of cool anomalies are shown in the Northwest & Southeast U.S., though as noted below there is a large degree of uncertainty in these areas given input disagreements. This pattern is generally supported by the top analogs (Appendix 1) and probability map (Appendix 3). The latest EC extended run depicts widespread warmth dominating the forecast through the next 4 weeks across nearly all of North America. The latest EC seasonal model update for April shows a very similar pattern, with warmth across all of the U.S. and most of Mexico. All considered, areas of forecasted warmth are much more likely to verify than the two areas of expected cool anomalies, and these latter areas could turn warmer as an item to watch moving forward.

Precipitation Outlook: The forecasted precipitation anomalies for April in North America (Figure 2) show the potential for widespread dry weather across much of the U.S., stretching from the Southwest through the central Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The only areas of notable wet weather in the forecast are in southern Mexico, the Caribbean, and Florida, as well as Ontario. This pattern is supported by a consensus among the top analogs (Appendix 2) and probability map (Appendix 4). Both the latest EC extended and seasonal runs show a similar pattern, adding to the confidence of this outlook.

 

Most of Ukraine’s winter crops are in satisfactory state, says deputy minister

Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in satisfactory state, the first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Thursday.

“The weather swings in February and March were not stressful enough to cause significant damage,” Vysotskiy told national television.

 

US generated fewer renewable blending credits in February, EPA says

The United States generated fewer renewable blending credits in February versus the prior month, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

About 1.12 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in February, compared with about 1.25 billion in January, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending fell to about 376 million in February from 486 million the prior month, the data showed.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 7.1% Y/y in February

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.23b pounds in Feb., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 6.8% y/y to 2.02b pounds
• Feb. cattle slaughter totaled 2.32m head, a 11.1% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 48 pounds from last year to 1,432 pounds
• Pork production down 7.2% y/y to 2.2b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 7.5% y/y to 10,164m head
  • Avg live weight was 291 pounds vs 290 pounds a year ago

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 738k tons in the week ending March 15 from 384k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 81.6% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 94.9% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $17.68 per short ton, an increase of $0.36 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.