Global Ag News for Mar 26.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil faces inflation risks as surging corn prices eclipse rice plunge

Brazil is set to face inflationary pressure from rising corn prices, which could overshadow a sharp drop in rice, as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration struggles to contain public discontent over high food inflation.

Corn prices in the Campinas region have surged past 90 reais ($15.80) per 60-kg bag, the highest nominal level in nearly three years, marking a more than 23% jump year-to-date, according to the widely followed Cepea index from the University of Sao Paulo.

That contrasts with paddy rice prices, which have dropped below 80 reais per 50-kg bag in Rio Grande do Sul for the first time since October 2022.

Rice prices have slumped due to an expected 15% rise in Brazilian production driven mainly by a recovery of Rio Grande do Sul’s harvest, and improved global supply.

Conversely, corn prices have climbed amid low starting stocks, robust demand from the ethanol and meat industries, and the development of Brazil’s second corn crop amid weather uncertainty.

“A major risk for food (inflation) is corn, the main input for poultry, pork, and cattle feed, including both meat and dairy production,” consultancy Datagro said on Tuesday.

Datagro expects inflation to exceed the 3% official target with a 4.5% upper tolerance band, as food prices weigh on Lula’s declining approval ratings.

The consultancy estimates corn’s surge could push food inflation up by 1.07 percentage points over six months, with a broader impact on consumer prices of up to 0.47 percentage points.

A further drop in rice prices, the fifth most significant food item in Brazil’s inflation index, could help ease inflation, but the cereal has already declined 3.99% over the past 12 months, economist Andre Braz of FGV IBRE noted.

Meanwhile, poultry, beef, and pork prices – which are all impacted by corn costs – have jumped 10.95%, 21.47%, and 20.22%, respectively, he stressed.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 0.21.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 21 3/4 in HRW, down 16 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/2; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $5.70; Soyoil up 0.50.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 3/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 3/4; Soybeans down 22 1/2; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil down 1.61.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.7% in SRW, up 1.4% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is up 0.1%; Soybeans up 0.5%; Soymeal down 4.2%; Soyoil up 6.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 88; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.33%) at 4259.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 25 were: SRW Wheat up 1,665 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,695, Corn up 17,891, Soybeans down 2,692, Soymeal up 3,079, Soyoil down 2,742.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 25 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: After a quiet few days, stormy weather will return to the U.S. this weekend with the most persistent rainfall through 1-2 weeks focused on the eastern Corn Belt where it will slow any early spring crop plantings
• SOUTH AMERICA: The potential for warm/dry weather over the central regions of Brazil throughout April could lead to downside risks to 2nd crop corn in its most critical development stages
• AFRICA: An episode of high rainfall during the last week of March will be favorable for the flowering cocoa crop along the Ivory Coast, though drier conditions could return thereafter
• AUSTRALIA: Flooding rains in Queensland through the next couple weeks will have negative impacts on sugarcane development, while also slowing early wheat/rapeseed plantings

 

WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL HIT THE U.S. AT THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN COLDER

What to Watch:

• Current quiet, warming weather this week will give way to a stormy and then colder pattern into next week, with cold temperatures persisting for some time
• An active storm track will return this weekend over most of the U.S., bringing widespread rains and thunderstorms to the country
• Upcoming rains will be well received by a winter wheat crop struggling with dryness early this season, while increasingly cold/wet weather will slow spring crop plantings into early April

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 25 MARCH 2025

What to Watch:

• Modest pattern in much of Brazil
• Wet weather across Argentina

 

The player sheet for 3/25 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A state grains buyer in Syria has purchased an unknown volume of soft milling wheat in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons, European traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• BLACK SEA MARITIME DEAL: The United States reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push to lift some sanctions against Moscow.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on March 27.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 50,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17 from March 12
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Farmers Seen Planting 94.4M Corn Acres in 2025

US farmers seen increasing corn planting by 3.8m acres this year vs 2024, according to the avg est. of as many as 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

• At last month’s Outlook Forum, USDA estimated 2025 corn acres at 94m acres
• Soybean planting seen at 83.8m acres vs 87.1m last year
  • The Outlook Forum est. was for 84m acres
• Wheat seen at 46.5m acres vs 46.1m last year
• Cotton seen at 9.9m acres vs 11.2m last year

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US March 1 Hog Herd Seen at 75.44M Head

March 1 hog inventory seen rising to 75.44m head from 74.69m head in the same period last year, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

• That would be the biggest March 1 hog herd since 2020
• Breeding inventory seen up 0.2% y/y, and market hogs seen rising 0.9% y/y
• The Dec-Feb pig crop seen rising by 1.1% y/y to 34.14m head
• Dec-Feb farrowing seen rising by 0.2% y/y
• Furrowing intentions for March-May seen up 1.1% and June-Aug seen up 0.1%

 

Russia, Ukraine agree to sea, energy truce; Washington seeks eased sanctions

• US says both sides agree to maritime, energy ceasefires
• Russia says Washington must ‘order’ Zelenskiy to comply
• Kremlin says deal requires lifting of some sanctions
• Zelenskiy says there is no such requirement
• Trump cites progress despite ‘tremendous animosity’

The United States reached deals on Tuesday with Ukraine and Russia to pause their attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push to lift some sanctions against Moscow.

The separate agreements are the first formal commitments by the two warring sides since the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who is pushing for an end to the warin Ukraine and a rapid rapprochement with Moscow that has alarmed Kyiv and European countries.

The U.S. agreement with Russia goes further than the agreement with Ukraine, with Washington committing to help seek the lifting of international sanctions on Russian agriculture and fertiliser exports, long a Russian demand.

The Kremlin said the Black Sea agreements would not come into effect unless links between some Russian banks and the international financial system were restored.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this was untrue, and thatthe deals did not require sanctions relief to come into force.

“Unfortunately, even now, even today, on the very day of negotiations, we see how the Russians have already begun to manipulate,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address. “They are already trying to distort agreements and, in fact, deceive both our intermediaries and the entire world.”

Kyiv and Moscow both said they would rely on Washington to enforce the deals, while expressing scepticism that the other side would abide by them.

“We will need clear guarantees,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “And given the sad experience of agreements with just Kyiv, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelenskiy and his team to do one thing and not the other.”

Zelenskiy said the truce agreements would take effect immediately, and that if Russia violated them he would ask Trump to impose additional sanctions on Moscow and provide more weapons for Ukraine.

“We have no faith in the Russians, but we will be constructive,” he said.

The deals were reached after parallel talks in Saudi Arabia that followed separate phone calls last week between Trump and the two presidents, Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin.

Putin rejected Trump’s proposal for a full ceasefire lasting 30 days, which Ukraine had previously endorsed.

“We are making a lot of progress,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday, while adding there was “tremendous animosity” in the talks.

“There’s a lot of hatred, as you can probably tell, and it allows for people to get together, mediated, arbitrated, and see if we can get it stopped. And I think it will work.”

Washington has softened its rhetoric towards Russia in recent days, with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff saying he did not “regard Putin as a bad guy,” alarming European officials who consider the Russian leader a dangerous enemy.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said Kyiv would regard any movement of Russian military vessels outside the eastern part of the Black Sea as a violation and a threat, in which case Ukraine would have full right to self-defence.

 

Black Sea deal aimed at Moscow making profit, ensuring food safety, Russia’s Lavrov says

The Black Sea maritime security deal aims to bring Moscow back to predictable grain and fertiliser markets that would allow for profit and ensure global food security, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in remarks published late on Tuesday.

The United States reached separate deals on Tuesday with Ukraine and Russia to cease fighting in the Black Sea and pause attacks against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push to lift some sanctions against Moscow.

“We want the grain and fertilizer market to be predictable, so that no one tries to ‘ward us off’ from it,” Lavrov told the Russian state Channel One television.

“Not only because we want … to make a legitimate profit in fair competition, but also because we are concerned about the food security situation in Africa and other countries of the Global South.”

If implemented, the deal could be the first significant step toward U.S. President Donald Trump’s goal to achieve a more encompassing ceasefire in the war in Ukraine that Russia started with its full-scale invasion three years ago.

Lavrov, a veteran Russian diplomat at the helm of the foreign ministry since 2004, said the optimism of U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff who said that truce could come soon does not take under consideration the European allies of Kyiv.

“He (Witkoff) significantly overestimates the elites of European countries, who want to ‘hang like a stone around the neck’ of (Ukraine’s President Volodymyr) Zelenskiy, so as not to allow him to ‘give in’,” Lavrov said.

“Zelenskiy himself does not want to ‘give in’.”

Lavrov praised Trump and his officials for wanting to repair mutual relations and said Moscow is in consensus with the U.S. on not allowing disagreements between the two largest nuclear powers to escalate into a confrontation.

But he said Moscow will remain vigilant in its dealings with the U.S.

“‘Trust, but verify’ – this is the great commandment of (Former U.S. President Ronald) Reagan,” Lavrov said. “We will not forget it.”

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 21 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.084m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.759m bbl vs 26.575m a week ago

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 35% Y/y During Season to March 23

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 15.5m tons as of March 23, compared with 23.7m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 2.25m tons, Morocco with 1.91m tons and Algeria with 1.25m tons
• Barley exports were at 3.64m tons, down 21% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 15.4m tons, up 12% y/y

 

SovEcon Cuts Russian Wheat Export Forecast Again for 2024-25

SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024-25 season again to 40.7m tons, from 42.2m tons, due to a continued sluggish pace of shipments amid weak margins, the consultancy said in a note.

• Russia’s total wheat exports from the start of the season in July through February amounted to 32.6m tons, down from 33.8m tons in the previous season
• A stronger ruble and poor margins since late 2024 have led to lower exports
• Despite the headwinds, there may be “a gradual recovery in export activity due to improving market conditions, including rising export prices, renewed interest from importers, and a potential weakening of the ruble”: SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said
• Forecasts for exports of barley and corn in 2024-25 were both raised
  • Barley is projected at 3.5m tons, up from 3.3m tons
  • Corn seen at 2.8m tons, up from 2.6m tons
• Russia’s wheat export forecast for the 2025-26 was raised marginally to 39.1m tons from 38.9m tons, reflecting higher beginning stocks carried over from the current season

 

2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production unchanged amid favorable weather outlooks

2025/26 UKRAINE RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 3.2 [3.0-3.4] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production is kept at 3.2 [3.0-3.4] million tons (mmt). Production estimate for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 3.09 million tons. National-level yield is unchanged at 2.7 tons per hectare.

The past two weeks featured warm and dry weather conditions across Ukraine. Soil moisture levels are still at a 6-year low, raising drought concerns in main rapeseed producing Oblasts like Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipropetrovsk. According to the latest weather forecast, warm and wet conditions will be in store for the next two weeks, which will bode well for spring crops plantings.

 

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 4.9% Y/y in February: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.29 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 3.6% in February from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 6% y/y
• Condemned ante-mortem up 3.5% y/y

 

 

 

 

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