Global Ag News for Mar 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US tariffs pose no threat to China’s grain supply, official says

U.S. tariffs do not threaten China’s grain supply because markets had already anticipated the Trump administration’s measures, a senior economist at the Chinese government’s National Grain and Oil Information Center said on Friday.

“However, these trade policies will significantly impact global trade patterns,” Wang Liaowei said at the 6th Oils and Oilseeds Industry Summit in Tianjin.

“If the trade situation remains unchanged by this year’s U.S. soybean harvest season, it’s possible that China’s dependence on Brazilian soybeans could reach 80%.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 35 1/2 in SRW, down 33 1/2 in HRW, down 23 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 18 1/4; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal down $7.80; Soyoil up 2.18.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 31 3/4 in SRW, down 19 in HRW, down 17 in HRS; Corn is down 23 1/4; Soybeans down 12 3/4; Soymeal down $7.50; Soyoil up 0.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.2% in SRW, down 0.7% in HRW, down 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 2.7%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 4.9%; Soyoil up 11.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 10 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil up 92; Palm oil up 192; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 108.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 108 ringgit (+2.50%) at 4420.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 27 were: SRW Wheat up 9,429 contracts, HRW Wheat up 995, Corn up 3,509, Soybeans up 2,821, Soymeal up 2,958, Soyoil up 7,613.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A powerful cyclone this weekend will bring rains to most U.S. crop regions, though the Hard Red Winter (HRW) areas of the Southern Plains will largely miss out in an unfavorable outlook
• SOUTH AMERICA: Brazil heat risks will peak early next week over the Southeast region before moderating to some extent, though the forecast through the next couple weeks will remain warm which will elevate drought risks to 2nd crop corn
• EUROPE: Following a short-term warm spell, temperatures will move increasingly cooler across Europe through early April, and rains will be focused on Eastern Europe with benefits to winter wheat development
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Persistently wet conditions through the next 1-2 weeks over the Vietnam Central Highlands will slow the remaining coffee harvest, though flooding is not a major concern

 

BRAZIL RAINS WILL MISS MOST MAJOR 2ND CORN REGIONS AS THE CRITICAL MONTH OF APRIL BEGINS

What to Watch:

• Cool temperatures will expand northward across Argentina into next week, though the Pampas will remain largely dry to the benefit of harvest progress
• Warmth will persist over most of Brazil into the foreseeable future, while rains will miss key 2nd crop corn regions to the south
• Cool/wet weather through the next couple weeks in Paraguay will hamper the corn/soybean harvest

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers continue to fall this week as disturbances move through. Saturday may be the best day for heavier precipitation, which would occur across the south. That system will likely set up a more active pattern through the region going into April, bringing some better precipitation chances. Drought is very much a concern heading into the season, even with the precipitation being forecast.

Central/Southern Plains: Some streaks of light showers may move through, but most areas have been warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through Friday through the weekend, with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Another storm will likely roll through in the middle of next week, but the forecast favors northern and eastern areas over the southwestern Plains, unfavorable for wheat.

Midwest: Streaks of showers continue the next couple of days. A warmup is forecast on Friday ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow. The weather pattern may stay active next week with more rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and snow. This may lead to a lot of precipitation in some areas and places being too wet to start on early fieldwork, but it may also help with the drought situation.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Though some streaks of rain have been passing through this week, warmer and drier conditions should have been beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through Friday through this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms, including potential for severe weather and more heavy rain that could slow progress down.

 

The player sheet for 3/27 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought 204,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in two international tenders seeking up to 280,000 metric tons
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in a tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 55,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from any worldwide origins in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without an international tender being issued
• CORN PURHCASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER AND UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on Thursday was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER CANCELED: Turkey’s state grain board TMO canceledan international tender to sell and export 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat with no sale made.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17 from March 12.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closes late on March 27.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

LIVESTOCK: US Hog and Pig Inventory Fell 0.2% Y/y; Est. +1%

The hog herd totaled 74.512m head on March 1, according to the USDA report released Thursday on its website.

• Sows retained for breeding totaled 5.98m head, a 0.6% decline from year ago
• Hogs for slaughter fell 0.2% y/y to 68.532m head
• Pig crop fell to 33.701m from 33.756m last year
• Pigs per litter rose to 11.65 from 11.53 last year

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following  shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending March 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 202k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 415k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Japan with 72k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending March 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 14.4k tons of the 31.9k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Brazil Soy Crop Seen at 172.1M Tons After Tour: Agroconsult

Soybean production at world’s top supplier Brazil set to reach a record of 172.1 million tons in the 2024-25 season, consultancy Agroconsult says during press conference.

• That’s an increase compared to a 171.3m tons estimate from February
• Output seen 10.7% higher compared to previous season
  • Losses seen in southern states were offset by yield gains in central areas
  • Six producing states should see record yields this season
• Higher production should help farmers to pay 2024/25 crop debts, Agroconsult President André Pessôa says
  • Those with debts from prior seasons should keep facing hurdles due to tight profit margins, higher interest rates
• Soybean planted area seen up 2.1% YoY to 47.8 million ha (118 million acres)
• Soybean exports seen at 106.3m tons in 2025, above a January estimate of 105.1m tons
  • Brazil to potentially benefit from higher exports to China if tariffs persist next season: Pessôa
• Second corn output seen at 109.6m tons if rains in April and May are confirmed
  • That would be enough to expand both exports, to 42m tons this year from 37.4m tons in 2024, and domestic use
  • Corn ethanol mills, animal feed to use over 96m tons in 2025, from 88m tons last year
• Corn ethanol demand seen at 22.3m tons

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates March 27: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• No changes to 2024-25 corn, soybean production
• Corn harvest advances to 19.2% complete from 13.6% the previous week

 

China’s Q1 soybean imports forecast to hit record low before rebounding, says Yihai Kerry exec

China is forecast to import 13.6 million metric tons of soybeans in the first quarter, down 5.2 million tons from a year earlier and the lowest figure on record, an executive at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd 300999.SZ said on Friday.

However, imports are forecast to rebound to 35 million metric tons in the second quarter, Li Feng, Deputy Director of Oil Department, said at the 6th Oils and Oilseeds Industry Summit in Tianjin.

 

EU Sees Total Grain Production Rising 10% in 2025-26 Season

The EU’s total grain production is estimated at 280.7m tons in the 2025-26 season that begins July, the European Commission said in its first outlook for the upcoming season.

• That is 10% above the forecast for the 2024-25 season, and more than 3% above the five-year average
• Soft wheat seen at 126.5m tons next season, up 13% on the current season
• Barley seen at 51.7m tons, up 5%
• Corn seen at 65.0m tons, up 10%

 

Trump administration tells oil and biofuels groups to hash out new biofuel policy

• Trump administration asks Big Oil and Farm Belt to come to a consensus on biofuel policy
• Two meetings held so far, with consensus to seek higher biomass-based diesel volumes
• Other key issues still under discussion

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has asked oil and biofuels producers to hash out a deal on the next phase of the nation’s biofuels policy to avoid the kind of political clashes that marked his first term, according to four people familiar with the matter.

Big Oil and the Farm Belt’s biofuels makers are traditional competitors for share in the multibillion-dollar U.S. gasoline market. They have repeatedly fought over details of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, a program that requires billions of gallons of corn-based ethanol and other biofuels to be blended into the country’s fuel supply.

The White House directive has already yielded at least two bilateral meetings, including one hosted last week by the American Petroleum Institute, said the sources, who include Will Hupman, API’s vice president of downstream policy, and three others who asked not to be named.

At that meeting, representatives discussed issues like the size of future mandated biofuel blending volumes, exemptions for small refiners, and biofuel tax policy, Hupman and the other sources said.

Any agreement reached between the two powerful industries could be adopted by the Trump administration.

 

Russia harvests 129.8 mln tonnes of grain in 2024 – AgMin

Russia harvested 129.8 million tonnes of grain in 2024, Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said at a round table at the Federation Council on Thursday, referring to Rosstat data.

“Despite unfavorable weather conditions [last year], we had a decent harvest, the fifth in the history of our country at almost 130 million tonnes – 129.8 million tonnes according to the latest data from Rosstat,” the deputy minister said.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 670k tons in the week ending March 22 from 738k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 10% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 1.3% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.03 per short ton, an increase of $0.36 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

 

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