Global Ag News for Mar 3.22

TODAY – EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are up 55 1/2 in SRW, up 33 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $0.25; Soyoil up 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 254 in SRW, up 217 1/4 in HRW, up 104 in HRS; Corn is up 75 3/4; Soybeans up 86 1/2; Soymeal up $0.78; Soyoil up 7.28.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 180 1/2 in SRW, up 155 1/4 in HRW, up 70 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 41; Soybeans up 34 3/4; Soymeal up $4.20; Soyoil up 3.69.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 45% in SRW, up 42% in HRW, up 14% in HRS; Corn is up 26%; Soybeans up 27%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 44%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 35 yuan; Soymeal down 31; Soyoil up 30; Palm oil up 152; Corn down 1 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 148 ringgit (+2.22%) at 6808.

There were changes in registrations (200 SRW Wheat, -17 Soyoil, 16 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,057 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 17 Corn; 68 Soybeans; 120 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 2 were: SRW Wheat down 15,043 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,637, Corn up 6,540, Soybeans down 8,742, Soymeal down 6,544, Soyoil down 5,557.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday, north Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

U.S. Southern Plains HRW Wheat Weather: Central/Southern Plains wheat Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Friday.

The player sheet for 3/2 had funds: net buyers of 17,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 12,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 266,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, including 198,000 tonnes of old-crop and 68,000 tonnes of new-crop soybeans. The USDA also confirmed sales of 264,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, including 198,000 tonnes of old-crop and 66,000 tonnes of new-crop soy.
• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat from optional origins in a tender which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally purchased about 370,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender
• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of durum wheat in an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought 24,074 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States in regular tenders.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Incheon section, also called the Feed Buyers Group, bought around 134,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: No trading companies participated in the international tender from Jordan’s state grains buyer to purchase 120,000 tonnes of wheat, traders said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 15.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY-SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 72,200 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States and Vietnam
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa

StoneX Cuts Brazil Crops, Winter Safrinha Depends on Rains

Brazil’s 2021-22 total corn crop estimate was little changed at 116m tons, while soybeans were reduced to 121.1m tons, as dry weather hurt prospects, says StoneX in a report.

• Total soybeans crop seen slashed from 145.1m tons
  • Exports of the oilseed were reduced to 75m tons, down from 80m tons
• Summer corn crop estimate cut by 1.1% to 25m tons, down from 29.6m tons in December
• Second corn crop forecast raised by 0.3% to 89.4m tons
  • Compares with 59m tons last season
• Corn exports seen at 40m tons, up from 20m tons last year as losses mounted due to dry weather in March and April of last year

Brazil to launch national fertilizer plan to stimulate investments -minister

Brazil agriculture minister Tereza Cristina Dias said on Wednesday that the country will soon launch a national fertilizer plan to stimulate investments in potash and phosphorus mines.

In an interview with CNN, Dias said Brazil needs to have a bigger fertilizer production for a “national security matter”.

There’s Not Enough Extra Canadian Wheat to Fill Global Shortfall

• Nation’s wheat crop tumbled in 2021 amid dry conditions
• ‘We are already in short supply,’ industry group says

One of the world’s top wheat exporters won’t be able to fill supply shortfalls caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after drought withered its own grain inventories.

Massive Palm Oil Rally Is Starting to Turn Away Buyers in India

• ‘We can’t buy at these prices,’ says CEO of a trading company
• Banks and producers warn of demand destruction as prices soar

The blistering rally in palm oil is starting to turn away customers in India, the world’s biggest importer.

Buyers have canceled as much as 100,000 tons of planned palm oil purchases in the past seven days, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group, a Mumbai-based trader and broker of vegetable oils.

“We can’t buy at these prices,” he said. “Demand destruction is happening.”

It’s what banks and even palm oil producers have warned about: sky-high prices will eventually result in consumers scaling back purchases or simply not be able to afford it anymore. The tropical oil rallied to a record high in Malaysia this week, joining a sweeping rally in commodities, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked fears that raw material supplies will fall short.

India is especially vulnerable to soaring vegetable oil prices as it relies on imports for 60% of its needs. It mainly buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil, and sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia, where shipments have been at risk of disruption.

As buyers are forced to cancel purchases, India is counting on existing stockpiles and an incoming domestic rapeseed crop to meet demand.

The South Asian nation has enough cooking oil inventories for about 45 days of use, Bajoria said. Data from the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India showed stockpiles at a four-month high at the start of February.

Domestic production of rapeseed sown in winter is set to be a record 11.46 million tons in 2021-22, according to the farm ministry. That could bring some much-needed relief to the high retail prices of edible oils in India.

India’s palm oil imports will slip to 500,000 tons in March from over 525,000 tons last month, Bajoria predicts. Purchases could fall sharply in April, he said.

France Rouen Grain Exports Fell 54% in Week to March 2

Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 99,187 tons in the week to March 2, compared with 215,080 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report

Loadings by destination (in tons):

• Soft wheat
  • Morocco 27,200
• Malting barley
  • Netherlands 3,824
  • Germany 4,133
• Feed barley
  • Ireland 4,400
  • Morocco 59,630

Fertilizer Firms Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Supply Concern

A spike in urea and phosphate prices followed news of Russia’s move into Ukraine, particularly at New Orleans (NOLA) and offshore markets such as Brazil and Egypt. Pricing was also strong at inland terminals in North America. The invasion also sparked a rise in potash prices in Brazil, which imports significant volume from Russia.

Too much water? Argentina farm belt rains mark shift away from drought fears

Heavy rains in Argentina’s farm belt and expectations of more to come are alleviating fears about a prolonged drought hitting crops after a dry start of the year, with some forecasters even concerned that too much water could affect soy and corn harvests.

The recent rain, which comes on the back of months of dry weather that have hammered crop production estimates, marks an important shift for the South American country, the world’s No. 1 exporter of processed soy and No. 2 for corn.

“The rains in recent days were very good in a large part of the agricultural area,” said Esteban Copati, head analyst at the Buenos Aires grains exchange, which cut its soy and corn outlook sharply in February due to the drought. (Full Story)

“What these rains allow is to sustain our current outlook. It stops the deterioration.”

Copati added, however, that there would not be any rebound in harvest forecasts, currently set at 51 million tonnes for corn and 42 million tonnes for soy because the crops had already been hit hard by the drought and were now well advanced.

Germán Heinzenknecht, a local meteorologist at the Applied Climatology Consultancy, told Reuters that forecasts of “important” rainfall over the coming weekend would add to recent precipitation, capping crop losses.

“The ones coming between Friday and Sunday are very important rains, especially in the center of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, the east of Córdoba, they can be widespread rains of 80-90 millimeters (3.15-3.54 inches),” he said.

Heinzenknecht added that rainfall in the central farm belt should now easily reach the March average of 120-130 mm, and could become a worry in itself if it hampered the harvest that has started early for corn and will start in late March for soy.

“The only thing (farmers) don’t want now is to have excess water not allowing them to harvest,” he said.

“These rainfalls are good, it’s a good sign, but hopefully the second fortnight of March will come with a little more sun. That’s key for the harvest.”

Brazil Struggle to Get Fertilizer With Russia Supply in Question

• In Brazil, suppliers suspend price offers amid uncertainties
• Farmers can’t buy inputs for next crop, boosting cost concerns

Brazilian farmers are having trouble getting fertilizer for the next soybean crop after top-supplier Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a blow to producers already dealing with surging costs.

In Brazil, the world’s largest fertilizer importer, growers usually buy crop nutrients months before the planting season starts to lock in their costs. With the war in Ukraine, fertilizer companies and retailers have been reluctant to provide price quotes on crop nutrients.

The South American nation, which leads global exports of soybeans, coffee and sugar, needs to import around 80% of its fertilizer demand. That matters to markets globally because prospects for reduced availability of crop nutrients and rising costs could worsen the outlook for food inflation.

“This situation is hampering farmers’ planning for the next crop,” said Bartolomeu Braz Pereira, head of the farming group Aprosoja. “It’s another challenge for us amid rising costs.”

Highly lethal bird flu spreads to Iowa backyard poultry flock

Iowa reported a highly lethal form of bird flu in a backyard poultry flock on Wednesday, expanding a U.S. outbreak of the disease to the top egg-producing state.

The flock in Pottawattamie County, which was not being raised for commercial production, will be culled to prevent the spread of the disease, Iowa said.

Over the past month, highly lethal bird flu cases have been confirmed at commercial farms in Indiana, Kentucky and Delaware, triggering export restrictions for U.S. poultry products.

In 2015, Iowa was at the center of the biggest-ever U.S. outbreak of avian flu, which killed about 50 million birds.