Global Ag News for Mar 31.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Drought cuts Romanian grain, sunseed output in 2024

Romania’s production of wheat fell in 2024 while an extensive drought led to double-digit losses in maize and sunflower seed output, preliminary data from the National Statistics Board showed on Monday.

The European Union state put 2.27 million hectares under wheat and reaped 9.29 million metric tons in 2024, down 3.5% in the previous year.

Its maize harvest stood at 5.99 million tons, down 31.45% on the year, while sunseed production was 1.49 million tons, down 26.04%.

Romania is among the EU’s largest grain sellers and an active exporter, with Egypt its main buyer, but prolonged heatwaves last summer damaged millions of tons of crops.

In 2024 it was the EU’s third-biggest maize and sunflower producer and its fourth-largest wheat grower, the statistics office said.

EU soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 15.46 million tons by March 23, and were down 35% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed earlier this month.

Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $3.10; Soyoil down 0.13.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 18 1/2 in SRW, down 29 1/2 in HRW, down 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans up 22 3/4; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 3.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 27 1/2 in SRW, down 26 in HRW, down 18 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil up 0.91.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.9% in SRW, down 1.9% in HRW, down 2.7% in HRS; Corn is down 0.8%; Soybeans up 3.2%; Soymeal down 3.7%; Soyoil up 13.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 31 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil up 18; Corn down 15 — Malaysian Palm is up 107.

Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 28 were: SRW Wheat up 9,773 contracts, HRW Wheat up 8,552, Corn down 7,453, Soybeans up 3,823, Soymeal up 10,083, Soyoil down 854.

 

Northern Plains: A mix of heavy rain and snow fell across South Dakota over the weekend, but other areas were much drier. Another system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, with much of the same scattered showers, including areas of potential heavy snow, mostly across South Dakota. The two systems are making for improving soil moisture across the south, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Dryness that is forecast afterward won’t be helpful either.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, but very little fell in the southwestern winter wheat areas. Another system will probably do something similar Tuesday into Wednesday. A larger storm system will move through this weekend and could be more favorable for southwestern areas. Drought in Nebraska is seeing some improvements lately, but if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

Midwest: Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, including some severe weather and heavy rain. Northwestern areas saw improved soil moisture and drought reduction is likely in a lot of areas. A system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday should bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms, potential for severe weather, and heavy rain. Some areas are getting a little too wet to do fieldwork, but the weather looks much drier next week, though it should be colder as well.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A system brought through scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, and heavy rain over the weekend. Showers may end across the south early Monday, but another system will move through on Wednesday with more heavy rain and severe weather potential. A front could linger across the area for the rest of the week and showers may continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

Brazil: Scattered showers fell across many areas over the weekend, but heavy rain was not noted in very many areas. A front coming up from Argentina will get stuck across southern and central areas this week, moving farther north over the weekend. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for a lot of safrinha corn areas, but soil moisture continues to be below normal in a lot of the country. Time is running out to build soil moisture before wet season rainfall shuts down in April. If it is too early, damage to pollinating and fill corn could result.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers through the country over the weekend, being favorable for immature corn and soybeans. However, that is an increasingly smaller percentage of the crop as it continues to head into maturity. Largely dry conditions this week should help with the maturing process as well as fieldwork.

Black Sea: Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the region. Limited showers have been moving through, but not enough to reverse the overall dry soils in a lot of areas. Waves of showers will continue for much of this week, however, so some improvement should be noted.

Australia: Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, but heavy rain in the east has delayed harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, the heavy rain is favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola that should start to be planted in April. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 28 will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with more heavy rain potential in Queensland. Western areas have been drier and are in need of rain before wheat planting can begin. Some minor showers are forecast there later this week.

 

The player sheet for 3/28 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 55,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from any worldwide origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASES: South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc.(NOFI) and Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) each bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in private deals on Thursday without international tenders being issued.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17 from March 12
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on March 27.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Feb. Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 188.6m bu in Feb., an 2.5% drop from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of February seen at 2.268b lbs, up from 2.147b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen down 6.4% y/y to 417.2m bu

 

White House weighs helping farmers as Trump escalates trade war, NYT reports

Officials from President Donald Trump’s administration have discussed the early contours of a potential bailout for farmers with industry lobbying groups and Republican congressional offices, the New York Times reported on Monday, citing four people familiar with the matter.

 

Brazil Farmers Harvest 81.31% Of 2024/25 Soybean Crop – Patria

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 81.31% OF 2024/2025 SOYBEAN CROP VERSUS 73.62% AT THIS TIME LAST SEASON

 

Ukraine Spring Grain Planting Advances From Last Year: Minister

Ukrainian farmers planted spring grains across 551,800 hectares as of Friday, according to a statement on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

• That’s 16% more than spring sowing by March 29 last year, according to ministry data
• The total includes:
  • 315,500 hectares of barley, up 8% y/y
  • 79,800 hectares of spring wheat, up 17% y/y
• NOTE: Ministry sees total grain and oilseed spring planting at 5.7m hectares, on a par with last year

 

CORN/CEPEA: Players focus on crop activities; liquidity is low

Corn producers are focused on crop activities. The summer crop harvest has been progressing well in many regions, and sowing activities of the second crop are heading to the end.

On one hand, the dry weather has been favoring the summer crop, but it has been concerning agents regarding the second crop on the other – the rainfall in this period is essential for a good development. However, rains are likely to fall in the next week in many producing areas.

In this scenario, trades are moving at a slow pace. Some sellers are still limiting the volume available, expecting new price rises, while others are willing to close deals, aiming to take advantage of current high price levels. Moreover, some players are concerned with difficulties to store the product, because of the soy harvesting.

As for the demand, many consumers indicate to have stocks; thus, they are away from closing trades in the spot market. This scenario has resulted in price drops in some areas, such as in Campinas (São Paulo state).

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down 2.4% between March 20 and 27, closing at BRL 87.92 per 60-kilo bag on March 27. In the accumulated of the month, on the other hand, the Index rose 0.5%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from March 20-27, corn values increased 1.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar valuation attracts demand from abroad; liquidity increases in BR

Cepea, 28 – The high international demand for the soybean from Brazil boosted the pace of trades in the spot market. This scenario has been influenced by the dollar valuation against Real, which leads commodities from Brazil more attractive to international purchasers. Moreover, soy producers are willing to trade part of the 2024/25 season in the spot market to make cash flow for the next crop.

In the partial of March (up to March 21), Brazil shipped 10.25 million tons of soybean, 59.5% more than in February – data from Secex. The daily average this month is 25.2% higher than that verified one year ago.

However, despite the higher liquidity, the soy supply continues above the demand, pressing down quotations.

 

China unveils plan to ramp up high-standard farmland development to ensure food security

China will aim to develop 90 million hectares (200 million acres) of high-standard farmland by 2030, according to plans released by the government on Sunday in its latest effort to ensure food security.

The country will also strive to transform all “eligible permanent basic farmland” into high-standard farmland by 2035, said the plans published by the State Council, or cabinet.

“Permanent basic farmland” refers to farmland in China that is safeguarded against non-agricultural uses to ensure stable grain production.

 

US Soy Crusher Says Tariffs Could Slow Record Meal, Oil Exports

Tariffs on US shipments to countries such as Canada and Mexico could slow what’s been a record pace of American soybean meal and oil exports, according to crusher South Dakota Soybean Processors LLC.

• For now, “we expect markets to adjust and respond more positively than in 2024,” the company said Friday in an annual report
  • Geopolitical events including tariffs and global trade tensions “could significantly disrupt our business and operational plans and adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows, financial condition and liquidity”
• Report comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs set for April 2
• Company has two soybean processing plants in South Dakota and a soybean oil refinery, as well as a controlling interest in a processing facility in Mitchell, South Dakota, set to come on line in the fourth quarter
• Revenue in 2024 fell 21% to $554.4 million, “primarily due to a decrease in the average sales price of soybean products”

 

Ukraine approves ambitious plan to develop irrigation, says government

Ukraine’s government has approved an ambitious plan to develop irrigation in the farm sector, which will ensure a stable grain harvest of up to 100 million metric tons, thanks to a sharp increase in watering area, the farm ministry said on Monday.

Ukraine has about 32.7 million hectares of arable land, but more than half of it could face moisture shortages in the medium term due to global climate change, the government predicted.

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine irrigated about 2.2 million hectares, but economic difficulties after independence in 1991 and the Russian invasion in 2022 reduced the irrigated area to 130,000 hectares in 2024.

The government plan assumes that irrigated area will increase to 235,000 hectares by 2030 and to 750,000 hectares by 2050.

“Yields of major crops – wheat, corn, soybean, sunflower – to be grown on irrigated land will increase by 92% on average compared to conventional land,” the government said in a report.

The total income from increased yields on additional irrigated land for the period up to 2030 will be approximately 2.37 billion hryvnias ($57.18 million), it added.

Ukraine harvested around 54 million tons of grain in 2024.

The cost of works under the project over the next five years will amount to 4.64 billion hryvnias, the government said.

“It is the development of the irrigation sector that is seen as an objective and necessary condition for ensuring annual grain production at the level of 80-100 million tons, which will allow Ukraine to remain one of the world’s food donors,” it said.

 

China absorbs massive Brazilian soy shipments in first quarter

Brazilian soybean traders are poised to ship record volumes in the first quarter, driven by strong demand from the world’s largest importer, China, which is currently involved in a trade war with the U.S., three analysts said, citing shipping data.

Current soy volumes being shipped do not yet reflect the effects of the new trade war, the analysts said. They believe an escalation will direct more Chinese demand to Brazil over time, as was the case in 2018.

Brazilian traders had loaded 22.8 million tons of soybeans onto vessels through March 25, 17.7 million of that going to China, said Eduardo Vanin, an analyst with Agrinvest. He noted both figures “are records” in spite of some logistical bottlenecks and a slow start to Brazil’s harvest.

Brazil’s first-quarter soy shipments to China reflect advanced purchases for some 33 million tons made by December 2024, when the new crop was not ready and Chinese crushing markets were healthy, Vanin said. This is 7 million tons more than in the previous season at the same time.

Brazilian farmers normally sow soybeans from September and harvest the crop in the first weeks of the new year, depending on the region.

Ports start getting busy from February on.

Andre Pessoa, a partner at agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult, said the trade war has no influence on shipments now, though China’s advance buying movement last year suggests Chinese importers were “preparing for a possible Trump victory.”

Brazil will reap more than 170 million tons of soy this year, the highest ever.

“I think the influence of the trade war is very small for now,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, an analyst at Hedgepoint Global, adding Chinese demand for Brazil’s soy has been on the rise for years.

Even so, Roque expects Brazil’s soy shipments to China to break last year’s record for the first quarter, totaling around 18 million tons in the period, some 2 million tons higher than in the previous year. He added the effects of the trade war tend to be more intense in the second half of the year, when the U.S. generally sells more soy to China.

In January and February, China received 79% of Brazilian soybean exports, compared to 75% in the same period last year, grain exporters’ lobby Anec said.

 

Strategie Grains holds EU rapeseed crop outlook, lifts sunflower

Consultancy Strategie Grains maintained its forecast for 2025/26 European Union rapeseed output on Friday as the oilseed crop continued to benefit from favourable weather, while it slightly raised its sunflower seed outlook.

In a monthly report the consultancy forecast production of rapeseed – the EU’s main oilseed crop, used in food and biofuel – at 19.0 million metric tons next season, unchanged from last month and 13% above 2024/25.

“Weather conditions are currently favourable for rapeseed field development in the western EU countries. The return of rains would support the rapeseed yield potential in the eastern EU countries,” it said.

Meanwhile, sunflower seed production forecasts for 2025/26 have been revised up to 10.6 million tonnes, compared to 10.5 million tonnes in the previous month and now 26% above this season. The change followed an increase in the estimated area.

Rapeseed crops are mostly sown in late summer and autumn in Europe, while sunflower and soybean crops are planted during spring.

Adverse weather conditions including torrential rain and heatwaves had hurt EU oilseed crops last year, tightening supply for rapeseed and sunflower seed.

Strategie Grains estimates that rapeseed prices have an additional upward potential by the end of June because the EU situation is still tight for both rapeseed and rapeseed oil in 2024/25.

On the contrary, it considered EU sunflower prices as overvalued and thus likely to adjust down in order to revive the demand for crushing.

Meanwhile soybean prices are not expected to change much in the EU, given the forecast stability of world prices and the balanced situation at the EU level, the consultancy said.

 

Malaysia March Palm Oil Exports +0.44% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s March palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for March 2025: 1.066m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 173,420 tons, 16.3% of total

 

China’s end-Feb sow herd up 0.6% Y/Y, agriculture ministry says

China’s sow herd was 40.7 million at the end of February, up 0.6% from a year earlier, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed on Friday.

China had 40.6 million sows at the end of January, according to previous data from the ministry.

For the first two months of the year, the number of pigs slaughtered in China rose 2.8% from the year before to 59.9 million, the data showed.

 

US Beef Production Up 8.6% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 529m pounds for the week ending March 29 from 487m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 8.7% from a week ago to 609m head
• Pork production up 2.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 2.4%
• For the year, beef production is 1.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 3.4% below

 

 

 

 

 

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