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Global Ag News for Mar 4.24


Maine Lobster Harvest Down 5% Amid Warming Ocean, Right Whale Regulations

Last year’s lobster catch in Maine fell more than 5% for a total yield of 93.8 million pounds, new data from the Maine Department of Marine Resource showed Friday, as climate change and regulations put in place to protect a rare whale species continue to impact the fragile industry.

Key Facts

Fishermen in Maine, who are responsible for catching more than 90% of the nation’s lobsters per year, caught 93.8 million pounds of the crustacean in 2023 (the lowest level since 2009) and were paid $4.95 per pound, up significantly from the $3.97 per pound paid to fishermen last year.

The sharp rise in price paid harvesters a total of $464.4 million, almost $72 million more than in 2023 despite the lower catch, indicative of a widely fluctuating value that involved prices spiking to $6.70 per pound in 2021 before falling to less than $4 in 2022.

The lobster industry in the state has been in flux for a decade as lobster populations move north toward Canada and away from the United States in search of cooler waters—the Gulf of Maine is warming faster than 99% of the world’s ocean surface, according to the University of New England.

New England’s fishermen have also been increasingly impacted by regulations put in place to protect right whales—one of the most endangered species of all large whales—that impact when and for how long fishermen can be on the water.

The decline in catch continues to build on a trend in the Maine lobster industry since harvesters caught a record high 132.6 million pounds in 2016, and 2023 marked the second year in a row the total catch has declined.


Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil down 0.03.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 18 1/2 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 13 1/2; Soymeal up $6.30; Soyoil up 0.21.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 22 1/2 in SRW, down 24 1/2 in HRW, down 15 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans up 18; Soymeal up $6.80; Soyoil down 0.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.2% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 10.4% in HRS; Corn is down 11.7%; Soybeans down 10.9%; Soymeal down 13.5%; Soyoil down 6.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 26 yuan; Soymeal up 60; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil down 2; Corn down 22 — Malaysian Palm is down 28. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 28 ringgit (-0.71%) at 3938.

There were changes in registrations (25 SRW Wheat, 110 Corn, -22 Soybeans, 250 Soyoil, -46 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 598 SRW Wheat contracts; 10 Oats; 116 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 646 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 10 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 1 were: SRW Wheat up 8,977 contracts, HRW Wheat up 934, Corn up 17,714, Soybeans up 2,781, Soymeal up 2,230, Soyoil up 3,893.

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil were widely scattered over the weekend and are forecast to continue that way through this week. A front moving into southern Brazil will be active for that region for much of this week as well as it bends around the region, favoring an increase in soil moisture for immature long-season crops and for the newly planted safrinha corn. A small area around Mato Grosso do Sul is in between the favorable areas of rainfall and could be too dry for the new crop.

Argentina: A front brought some heavy rain to northern areas over the weekend, while it was much more manageable over southern areas. Northern areas will continue to see showers with the front stuck in the area through Thursday. Another front will move in southern areas on Wednesday with more waves of showers moving northward through the weekend. The rainfall should be favorable for most areas, but is also scattered enough to miss some key areas across the south that could use some more rain. The overall pattern is a favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, however.

Europe: A system brought widespread rainfall to the western half of the continent over the weekend with another low escaping into the Mediterranean on Sunday that will continue showers in that region early this week. The main low continues to reload and bring more systems into western Europe this week. A stronger cold front will plow south across eastern areas later this week with a significant threat of cold air if a system moving eastward through the continent phases up with it. That could pose a threat to some winter wheat that has awakened early, but likely wouldn’t last long.

Black Sea: The winter wheat areas of the region were dry and cooler over the weekend, though not dangerously cold to produce a risk of frost damage. Drier conditions are likely most of this week but a front coming down from the north and a system moving through the Mediterranean may produce some needed precipitation, including snowfall in the region Sunday into Tuesday. That may be followed by colder air as well. Still, the cold should not have a dramatic effect on wheat that is still awakening from dormancy for the most part.

Australia: Many areas saw some needed rainfall over the weekend, but this weekend will be drier with more of the rain falling over the Outback this week. We will be watching a system over western areas with some shower potential late this week, though. Above-normal temperatures will be reducing soil moisture in most places this week, which is a concern for the coming winter wheat crop that begins to be planted in about six weeks. The reduction of El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter wheat crop later this year, however.

Northern Plains: A larger storm moved into the region over the weekend and spread showers through most areas, including some heavy snow across the north. Some cooler air will remain around the next couple of days before rising again by this weekend. In the cooler air, more showers will be possible this week, mostly as some light snow.

Central/Southern Plains: Strong winds kicked up over the weekend as a system moved across the north and dragged a cold front into the region. Wildfire risks remain elevated for Monday. Luckily, a system is expected to move through Wednesday night through Friday with widespread scattered showers. That may include some pockets of snow, mostly in the High Plains, but will help add to soil moisture for helping to fight any outstanding wildfires. It will also help to replace soil moisture losses due to higher winds and temperatures that have sapped it from the topsoil.

Midwest: Very warm temperatures moved in over the weekend along with stronger winds, breaking records in some areas. That also came with a storm system that brought a cold front into western areas on Sunday that will slowly move across the region through Tuesday. Though temperatures will decrease, they will still be above normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fill in across the region, helping to increase soil moisture a bit for much of the Ohio Valley. Another storm system will move through late this week and weekend with more widespread precipitation and chances for snow in some areas. Temperatures still remain warm going into mid-March and may coax some early planting across the south.

Delta: It was dry over the weekend with increasing temperatures. Above-normal temperatures continue through mid-March while a couple of systems bring more rainfall through the region this week. The combination of good soil moisture and warm temperatures may coax some early planting in the region over the next couple of weeks.

The player sheet for Mar. 1 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, and buyers of 2,000 soymeal.


  • CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, expected to be sourced from the United States
  • RICE PURCHASE: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog is believed to have purchased about 300,000 metric tons of rice an international tender.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins


  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 88,800 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States and China
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is looking to buy a total of 78,974 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that closed on March 1.
  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins





US Soybean Crushings at 195M Bushels in January: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

  • Crushing 1.9% higher than same period last year
  • Crude oil production 1.6% higher than same period last year
  • Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 13.9% y/y

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 433.6M Bu in January

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

  • Corn for ethanol was 1.7% lower than in January 2023
  • DDGS production rose to 1.763m tons

Brazil soy crop view revised twice in a day showing opposing trends, consultancies say

An agribusiness consultancy on Friday raised the forecast for Brazil’s 2023/2024 soybean crop while another cut its projection, indicating how different methodologies and unpredictable weather events have made it difficult to estimate the country’s output this season.

StoneX raised its soy forecast to 151.5 million metric tons, citing improved climate conditions in a season marked by excessive heat and dryness in top producer Mato Grosso state when the season kicked off. Previously, StoneX had said local farmers would reap a 150.35 million-ton soy crop, but now it sees improving yields in six states, including Goias, at the heart of Brazil’s farm country.

“Over the last few weeks, good amounts of precipitation have been observed in most soybean producing regions, which have benefited crop conditions, especially fields planted later,” StoneX said.

Consultancy AgResource, on the other hand, released a more pessimistic review of Brazil’s current soy crop, saying it will total 143.92 million tons, 5.5 million tons below last month’s prediction, citing falling yields. A sizeable portion of Brazil’s soy crop still needs to be harvested and, therefore, new crop estimates are likely, StoneX said. AgResource did not elaborate on its new soybean output forecast.

StoneX has kept its estimated Brazilian soy export demand at 93 million tons, while domestic consumption was maintained at 57.5 million tons. For AgResource, however, Brazil won’t export its 90 million tons export potential. StoneX also lowered its total Brazilian corn crop forecast to 124.44 million tons, citing smaller sowings of the country’s second corn crop. AgResource pegged Brazil’s corn production at 114.94 million tons, 3.27% below a previous projection, citing lower productivity. StoneX believes Brazil will not export as much corn as in the previous season, when it became the world’s top supplier and sold 54.6 million tons, surpassing the United States. Brazilian corn exports in the season are forecast at 45 million tons, while domestic consumption was maintained at 84 million tons, StoneX said. AgResource sees Brazil’s corn export potential at 39 million tons this season.

StoneX Raises Its Outlook for Brazil’s Soy Crop to 151.6M Tons

Outlook for Brazil’s soy output in current crop is now at 151.549m tons, 0.8% up from previous estimate in February, StoneX said on Friday in an emailed message.

  • Rains in past weeks over farming region known as Matopiba, which encompasses four states in central and northeast area of the country, as well in Goias state, helped to improve average yields: StoneX
  • Current harvest forecast still 4% smaller than production in previous season
  • Mato Grosso state, biggest Brazil’s soy producer, still seen harvesting 14% less due to dryness; Southern state Rio Grande do Sul expected to produce 53% more
  • Ending stocks estimates raised to 3.25m tons, up 1.19m tons from previous estimate
    • Exports still expected at 93m tons, domestic consumption 57.5m tons
  • Corn harvest estimate cut to 124.44m tons, down 100k tons from the February estimate, due to smaller planted area expected for central area state of Minas Gerais in winter crop
    • Corn exports estimates still at 45m tons; Domestic consumption at 84m tons

Brazil Farmers Harvest 46.04% Of 2023/2024 Soybean Area Versus 43.34% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios


Brazil soybean port premiums react amid stronger export demand

Brazilian soybean port premiums have recovered against reference Chicago contracts this week, reflecting stronger international demand for the oilseeds produced in the world’s biggest supplier, according to data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea). The rally boosted liquidity in the domestic soy market, with export deals being reported for 2023/24 crop and next season’s crop, which has yet to be sowed.

Brazilian soybean port premiums against Chicago’s April contract, for shipment at the port of Paranagua, had price indications from buyers at -40 dollar cents per bushel and at -37 cents per bushel from sellers this week, Cepea said. This compares with price indications at -75 cents from buyers and -55 cents from sellers in the previous week, according to Cepea data. On Tuesday, grain exporters lobby Anec raised its February projection for Brazilian soybean exports by more than 1 million metric tons, to 8.5 million tons. Soybean’s FOB price rose 0.4% through Thursday, to $24.31 per bag, despite a fall in Chicago quotes.


Argentina’s farm export revenues rose 64% in February

Argentine farm exports rose to $1.52 billion in February, a 64% jump from the same month last year, oilseed industry and grains export chamber CIARA-CEC said on Friday.

The surge in sales, also up 22% versus the previous month, comes as News Story devalued the peso currency by more than 50% after taking office in December, in a boost to agricultural shipments.

Grain exports are key for Argentina as they bring in foreign currency as it battles an economic crisis, with depleted central bank reserves and annual inflation topping 250%.

Argentina is one of the world’s top exporters of processed soy, the No.3 for corn and a major supplier of wheat.

Soybean meal is the country’s main export product, with a 14.2% share of total shipments, but the local industry has an elevated idle capacity close to 50%, according to CIARA-CEC.

China Buys Hefty Amount of Foreign Grain as Global Prices Slump

China snapped up more than 20 cargoes of feed grain on the international market in the past two weeks as the world’s biggest importer took advantage of a decline in prices to the lowest level in more than three years.

The country secured shipments of corn, sorghum and barley from suppliers including Ukraine and the US, according to people familiar with the transactions. The purchases amount to over 1.2 million tons of grain on the basis of each cargo being 60,000 tons.

The buying spree came as prices climbed in China and benchmark corn futures dropped in Chicago to the lowest level since 2020, weighed down by ample supplies from top exporters Brazil and the US. The widening gap between the local and international markets made the purchases attractive.

The shipments included at least 10 cargoes of Ukrainian corn, mainly for delivery from March to May, at least five cargoes of US sorghum and six multi-origin barley shipments for similar delivery, the people said.

Prices in China have risen as Beijing stepped up stockpiling of grain for state reserves to support the market in the runup to the planting of the new crop. That has countered lackluster demand for feed grain from the livestock industry where hog farmers have been making losses.

India likely to buy more soyoil in 2024, reduce palm oil purchases, top dealer says

India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, is expected to buy larger volumes of soyoil in 2024, while purchases of palm oil are likely to decline, a top dealer said on Monday.

Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm, said India’s soyoil imports will rise to 4.3 million metric tons in the 2023/24 marketing year from 3.5 million tons in 2022/23.

Palm oil imports will be lower at 9.2 million tons in 2023/24, compared with 10 million tons in 2022/23, Bajoria said on the sidelines of the Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference 2024.

Negative refining margins in palm oil versus positive margins in soyoil have prompted a switch from palm oil to soyoil in recent weeks, according to traders. Lower purchases of palm oil by India could keep inventories elevated in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, and weigh on benchmark futures FCPOc3.

Bajoria said India’s imports of sunflower oil will remain at about 3 million tons for the current marketing year, which would see the country’s total vegetable oil imports at 16.5 million tons in 2023/24, unchanged from the previous year.

“Overall, domestic production of vegoils is going to be around 10 million tons and imports will be at 16.5 million tons. So total consumption will be around 26.5 million tons.”

Local supplies of soybean, cottonseed, rice bran and mustard oils were currently keeping a lid on imports by India. However, palm oil imports should rise from May to July, Bajoria said.

The country’s palm oil imports are expected at 700,000 tons to 750,000 tons per month in May, June and July, Bajoria said. India’s palm oil imports in January dropped more than 12% from a month ago to a three-month low of 782,983 tons. India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, and soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukrain

Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Fell Almost 5% in February: Survey

  • Stockpiles probably dropped below 2 million tons last month
  • Exports declined as rival edible oils were more competitive

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia likely slipped below the 2 million-ton level for the first time in seven months as production in the world’s second-biggest grower continued to weaken.

Inventories fell about 4.5% in February from a month earlier to 1.93 million tons, according to the median forecast of 12 plantation executives, traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest level since July and compares with 2.12 million tons a year earlier.

Crude palm oil output declined for a fourth straight month, dropping about 5.7% to a 10-month low of 1.32 million tons, the survey showed. Exports plummeted 16% to 1.13 million tons, the weakest since May last year.

Production is set to be lower in line with a seasonally weaker pattern as well as shorter harvesting days in February due to the Lunar New Year holidays, according to Sathia Varqa, an analyst at Fastmarkets Palm Oil Analytics. Exports, meanwhile, are estimated to have slumped as palm oil lost its competitiveness to soybean oil, and major importers work through bloated stocks, he added.

Benchmark futures fell 0.3% to 3,955 ringgit a ton Monday, after closing just shy of 4,000 ringgit on Friday. Prices could climb above that level as El Niño impacts plantations in Indonesia, reducing shipments from the top grower, the world’s biggest planter Sime Darby Plantation Bhd. said last month.

Investors will also be looking for cues from a major industry conference in Kuala Lumpur this week, which will discuss the price outlook and production prospects for the world’s most-traded edible oils. Palm’s output in particular will be keenly watched in the coming months, with the survey’s respondents expecting weaker yields to keep supplies tight.

India Predicts Hotter Weather in Risk to Crops and Exports

  • Above-normal temperatures may hit wheat crops in major regions
  • A rise in electricity demand will put pressure on power grids

India forecast hotter-than-normal temperatures until May, posing a threat to crops and increasing the risk that the country’s curbs on grain exports will remain.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal in most parts of the country, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said in an online briefing Friday. Higher-than-normal heat wave days are also seen during the three-month period to May, he said.

The prediction poses fresh challenges to the government, which is trying to keep food prices under check before general elections by restricting shipments of wheat, rice and sugar, and selling grains from state reserves in the local market. Higher temperatures may hurt wheat crops, which have progressed well so far and are at the grain-filling stage. India sees a 1.3% rise in output to 112 million tons this year.

It’s another example of climate change making India vulnerable to extreme weather events. The frequency and intensity of floods, heat waves and droughts have been rising and hundreds of people are getting killed every year. Crop damages in the past years have forced the nation to turn to protectionist measures. Local supplies have improved but food prices stay elevated.

A hotter summer can also test the government’s ability to ensure power supplies ahead of the polls in the coming months, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will seek a third five-year term. Higher-than-usual temperatures and heat waves last year caused India’s peak electricity demand to soar to a record, putting pressure on power grids.

Temperatures in March may be above average over many areas of southern, northeast, central and northwest regions, Mohapatra said. The El Niño weather pattern, which can bring dry weather to parts of Asia, will continue during the Indian summer season, he said.

Average maximum temperatures across the country were near-normal in February, except in the southern region where they hit the highest since 1901, according to the weather office.

CORN/CEPEA: Favorable weather and low liquidity press quotations down

Cepea, 1st – In spite of the rainfall in many corn producing regions in Brazil, crop activities are more advanced compared to the season before. In general, rains have been limiting the planting in some areas, but they have been favoring most summer crops planted after the ideal period and second crops.

Due to favorable weather conditions (which boost expectations for the second crop harvest) and the current remaining stocks, prices are moving down, scenario that has been reinforced by the low liquidity. Purchasers are away from trades in the spot market, expecting new price drops, based on the possible higher supply of the summer crop and on the lower export parity.

PRICES – Between February 22 and 29, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) downed 1%, closing at BRL 62.23/bag on Feb. 29. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values decreased 1.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) over the last seven days.

PORTS – Trades at ports have been limited, since players are prioritizing soybean exports. In 15 working days of February, Brazil shipped 1.67 million tons, accounting for 74% of the total exported in February/23. according to data from Secex.

CROPS – The summer crop harvest hit 24.9% of the area in Brazil up to Feb. 24, 8.2 percentage points more than in the same period of the previous season. The second crop planting, in turn, reached 59% of the total, 10.3 p.p. above in the same comparison.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Export premium increases and counterbalances price drops in Brazil

Cepea, 1st – Soybean prices are moving down in both domestic and international markets, operating at levels that are 30% lower than in the same period of 2023. Export premiums, in turn, have upped this week, due to the firm international demand. As a result, the liquidity increased in the domestic market, with deals involving both the product from the current crop (2023/24) and the soybean that will be harvested in 2025 (2024/25 season).

The premium increase boosted FOB soybean prices in 0.4% from February 22-29, at USD 24.31 per 60-kilo bag (BRL 121.08/bag) on February 29. However, price rises were limited by the decrease verified for futures at CME Group.

From February 22-29, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) dropped 2%, closing at BRL 115.45 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 29. Comparing the averages in January and in February, the decrease is 7.3%. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved down 1.7%, to close at BRL 110.70 per 60-kg bag – in the monthly comparison, the price average downed 7.6%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 1.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices downed 2.7% in the last seven days. The Brazilian value of soy oil upped 0.9%, at 4.847,69 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on February 29.

CROPS – Conab indicates that the soy harvest hit 38% of the area in Brazil up to February 24, higher than the 34% observed a year ago.

Indonesia to Keep Cooking Oil Ceiling Prices, DMO Volume

Indonesia will maintain the ceiling prices of cooking oil sold in local markets to prevent inflation surges during the Ramadan and Eid Al Fitri festive season, said Isy Karim, director general for domestic trade at the trade ministry.

  • Govt will not raise ceiling prices for cooking oil until after Eid Al Fitri, which falls in mid April, he says at a meeting with the National Food Agency on Monday
  • Govt to also keep the domestic market obligation (DMO) program’s volume target at 300,000 tons during March-April as supply seen adequate
  • NOTE: In 2023, govt raised DMO volume to 450,000 tons during festive months

Indian farmers plan march on Delhi in call for higher crop prices

Indian farmers plan to march to the capital New Delhi on Wednesday as they push their demands for higher crop prices, a protest leader said, after several rounds of failed talks. Farm union leaders are seeking guarantees of state support or a minimum purchase price for farmers’ produce.

“On March 6, farmers will come to Delhi from all over the country by train, bus and air,” protest leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal told reporters. He said farmers would also block railway lines across the country on March 10.

The protests began in early February with hundreds of farmers in Punjab aiming to take their campaign to Delhi. They were blocked by police and paramilitary troops at Shambhu, at the border with neighbouring Haryana state, about 200 km (125 miles) from the capital.

The government announces support prices for more than 20 crops each year, but state agencies buy only rice and wheat at the support level, which benefits only about 6% of farmers who raise those two crops. In 2021, when the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi repealed farm laws, the government said it would set up a panel of growers and government officials to find ways to ensure support prices for all farm produce.

US Pork Production Falls 1.4% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 551m pounds for the week ending March 2 from 559m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Hog slaughter down 1.1% from a week ago to 2.549m head
  • Beef production up 1% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 1%
  • For the year, beef production is 4.2% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.1% above

U.S. Gulf Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Rises 9.34%

Nitrogen fertilizer, represented by U.S. granular urea sold at NOLA, rose 9.34% to $381 per short ton in the week ended March 1, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

  • U.S. Gulf NOLA urea rose 11.6% during the last month and was up 25.8% during the last 3 months
  • Major UAN, Ammonia and Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
  • Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc. were up, while Nutrien Ltd. and Yara International ASA were down in the latest week
  • Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has increased 7.5% during the last week and was down 11% during the last month
  • The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, increased 2.4% during the last week and was down 7.6% during the last month


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