Global Ag News for Mar 9.22

TODAY – EIA WEEKLY PETROLEUM STATUS, USDA S&D

Wheat prices overnight are down 69 in SRW, down 57 3/4 in HRW, down 48 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans up 21 3/4; Soymeal up $0.54; Soyoil up 1.21.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 1/2 in SRW, down 72 3/4 in HRW, down 51 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans up 51; Soymeal up $1.83; Soyoil up 4.16.  For the month to date wheat prices are up 283 1/2 in SRW, up 188 3/4 in HRW, up 101 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 54 1/4; Soybeans up 74 3/4; Soymeal up $32.40; Soyoil up 4.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 65% in SRW, up 48% in HRW, up 18% in HRS; Corn is up 28%; Soybeans up 30%; Soymeal up 19%; Soyoil up 47%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 66 yuan; Soymeal up 112; Soyoil up 180; Palm oil up 368; Corn down 19 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 658 ringgit (+10.26%) at 7074.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 17 Corn; 66 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 168 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 8 were: SRW Wheat down 1,661 contracts, HRW Wheat up 228, Corn up 6,310, Soybeans up 1,933, Soymeal down 1,319, Soyoil down 3,425.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, well below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers eastern Texas Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday night-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, well below normal Thursday-Friday-Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers southeast Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, well below normal Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

 Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, north Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Scattered showers through Saturday, especially west. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 3/8 had funds: net sellers of 14,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 13,500 soybeans, buyers of 7,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
• SOYBEAN SALE: The USDA confirmed private sales of 126,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: The USDA confirmed private sales of 193,000 tonnes of U.S. hard red spring wheat to the Philippines for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
• SOYMEAL SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 50,000 tonnes of soymeal to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat with the United States among regions permitted as possible origins
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 130,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat which closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it would seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and to arrive in Japan by Aug. 25.
• FAILED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for 125,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat and 100,000 tonnes of animal feed barley on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER POSTPONED: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have extended Tuesday’s international tender to purchase milling wheat by a day, with negotiations expected to continue on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.7 mln T In March – Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.769 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 11.775 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 0 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 30,000 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

World May Have to Cut Biofuel Use on Tight Vegoil Supply: Mielke

Governments may need to scale back their biodiesel mandates as global vegetable oil supplies are tight, Thomas Mielke, executive director of Oil World, said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.

• Vegetable oil export shortfall at the Black Sea represents 13-14% of world exports; missing sunflower oil volumes can’t be replaced
• Some demand may shift to rapeseed oil, but that requires rapeseed for biodiesel to be reduced
• About 18% of world consumption of 17 oils and fats are in biofuels
• Easing of biodiesel plans will have immediate bearish impact on prices; otherwise the necessary demand rationing must be placed on the shoulders of edible oil consumers
• If biodiesel reduction does not come, prices will be supported for a long time, particularly if war in Ukraine drags onPALM OIL

Palm oil output in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia below expectations from Oct. 2021 to March 2022

• This is mainly due to shortage of workers, harvest losses, lack of fertilizer application, management problems
• Global palm oil output to rise by 2.7m tons in 2021-22 vs 1.3m ton increase a year earlier
• Indonesia output +1.3m tons in 2021-22, Malaysia +0.8m tons

SOYBEAN

• South America soybean crop will be down by at least 21m tons y/y vs initial estimate for 9m ton increase
• Brazil production estimated at 125.5m tons; Argentina 40.5m tons; Paraguay at 5m tons
• There will be global deficit of soybeans, Mielke said
• Global soybean output may drop by 14m tons to 350m in 2021-22

Cooking Oil in Short Supply in Indonesia on Panic Buying: Gapki

Cooking oil is in short supply in Indonesia due to panic buying as households are purchasing more than they need, Togar Sitanggang, vice chairman of Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), said in pre-recorded speech at a conference.

• The 20% of CPO export commitments translates to 50k-120k tons a month, Sitanggang said; he didn’t provide figures for 30% allocation
• Govt hasn’t started discussion to lower biodiesel blending mandate
• B40 road test may be postponed to April-May or even later
• Vegetable oil prices will continue to climb, Sitanggang said
• Indonesian crude palm oil prices seen at $1,750-$2,250 a ton in next six months on FOB basis; output seen up 2.45% y/y to 48.04m tons

Indonesia to Increase DMO Requirement for Palm Oil to 30%: Lutfi

Indonesia, world’s top palm oil producers, will require exporters to allocate 30% of their shipment volume for local supply, rising from the current 20%, according to Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi in a briefing on Wednesday.

• The policy, which aims at ensuring affordable cooking oil for local consumers, will come into force on March 10 and will be imposed until the supply situation returns to normal
• Indonesia will review the domestic market obligation policy in the next six months, but opens the possibility of raising the allocation further if, “we see the supply of cooking oil is still ‘dry’ and has not returned to normal,” Lutfi says
• Govt will keep the ceiling prices for cooking oils sold locally unchanged
• Govt will take firm action against on hoarding and speculation of cooking oil

CPO PRICES EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN SECOND HALF OF 2022 — DORAB

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives for the third month and September 2022 are expected to decline to RM5,000 per tonne and RM4,000 per tonne, respectively, as demand slows down and production picks up, according to Godrej International Trading & Investments Pte Ltd.

Its director Dorab Mistry said India, the largest consumer of Malaysian palm oil, is expected to reduce its imports by one million tonnes this year as the South Asian nation shifts to soybean oil.

AgriMer Boosts French Wheat Export Est. 5% Amid Ukraine War

Crops office FranceAgriMer raised its estimate for French soft-wheat exports to 17.6m tons, versus 16.8m tons seen in February, it said in a report on Wednesday.

• Exports outside the EU seen at 9.7m tons, versus 8.9m tons
• Stockpiles outlook cut to 2.96m tons, from 3.58m tons

BARLEY

• Export estimate raised to 6.04m tons, versus 5.97m tons
• Stockpiles outlook cut to 1.37m tons, from 1.43m tons

CORN

• Stockpiles seen at 1.97m tons, versus 2.03m tons

Argentina has sold 16.6 million tonnes of corn -Agriculture Ministry

Farmers in Argentina have sold 16.6 million tonnes of corn during the 2021/22 season as of March 2, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

According to the Ministry, the country recorded a 687,500 tonnes of corn sold between Feb. 23 and March 2, two times the volume registered in the same period one year ago, boosted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has cut the global supply of the grain.

The country’s farmers are beginning to harvest the 2021/22 cereal, whose harvest is estimated at 51 million tonnes by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

Late last year, the Argentine government placed a limit on corn exports for the 2021/22 cycle of 41.6 million tons in an attempt to control high domestic food prices.

For the 2021/22 soybean cycle, Argentine farmers have sold 9 million tonnes of the oilseed, whose harvest will begin in the coming weeks. On the same date last season, the sales volume had been 11.1 million tonnes.

The Grains Exchange estimated soybean production for the current campaign at 42 million tons.

Foreign exchange from agricultural exports is essential for Argentina’s battered economy, which is only now beginning to grow after more than two years of stagnation that was aggravated by the effects of the pandemic.

Japan to Raise Imported Wheat Price 17.3% From April

Japan’s farm ministry says the government is raising the prices of imported wheat it sells to private companies by an average of 17.3% to 72,530 yen/ton for the April-Sept. period compared with the previous 6 months.

• Cites higher prices resulting from poor harvest in U.S., Canada last summer as well as Russia’s export controls
• The average prices of 5 major wheat brands imported from U.S., Canada and Australia are highest since 2008
• NOTE: Japan reviews the prices every 6 months; about 90% of wheat consumed in Japan comes from overseas

China lowers forecast for edible oil imports as global prices surge

China lowered its edible oil import forecast this month for crop year 2021/22, after drought in South America, palm oil export restrictions in Indonesia and the conflict in Ukraine sent prices soaring.

Edible oil imports are seen at 8.53 million tonnes, down from February’s forecast of 9.3 million tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its crop report released on Wednesday.

Estimates on all other key crops surveyed in the report remained unchanged, although it noted that high wheat prices will reduce use of the grain in animal feed, supporting demand for corn from a large hog herd.

The market is also expecting good demand for domestic soybeans, according to the Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE), which forecasts a domestic soybean price of between 5,800 yuan ($918.07)and 6,000 yuan, 500 yuan higher than last month.

U.S. CBP Seize Malaysian-Made Palm Oil Worth $2.5 Million

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection have seized four shipments of palm oil worth $2.5 million in Baltimore since Feb. 11 after finding indicators of forced labor, according to a statement on Tuesday.

• The latest shipment comprised 108 super packs of palmitic acid, seized on March 1; three earlier shipments comprising 270 super packs was seized on Feb. 11: statement
  • Palmitic acid is palm oil refined into a powder that can be easily incorporated into food, beverages, and skin and health care products
• All shipments were produced in Malaysia and destined to a processing facility in Delaware
  • The combined weight of the four shipments was 544,176 pounds with an appraised value of about $2.5 million

Serbia to Ban Flour, Corn, Vegoil Exports, President Says

Government to curb foreign sales on Thursday to shield domestic market after disruptions caused by geopolitical crisis and soaring commodity prices, Tanjug news reports, citing President Aleksandar Vucic.

• Serbia’s dinar remains “absolutely stable”
• Existing price caps on most common fuels will be revised upward to adjust to higher cost of crude; state will temporarily suspend some excise tax to ease pressure on refiner, retailers
• Crisis caused by fighting in Ukraine may get worse; “I expect an even stronger offensive by Russia than over the past three days”
• If EU decides to ban all energy imports from Russia, it would create problems for Serbia because it imports gas from Gazprom via EU states.

Fertilizer Prices Resume Rise as War Heightens Supply Concern

Urea and phosphate prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly at New Orleans (NOLA) and in offshore markets such as Brazil and Egypt, and rising natural gas prices will keep European ammonia producers offline