Global Ag News For March 2.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Bird flu devastates 7.4 million Pennsylvania chickens in a month

• Bird flu triggers crisis, Pennsylvania governor says
• Wild geese suspected of spreading virus to poultry flocks
• Farmers brace for wild birds to migrate in spring

Bird flu has wiped out 7.4 million chickens in Pennsylvania in the past month, a swift and devastating loss that veterinarians and industry members suspect may be linked to an unusually cold winter.

Infections of flocks raised to produce eggs and meat extend a U.S. outbreak that began four years ago and has eliminated 196 million birds nationwide. The virus, often spread by wild birds, has also infected U.S. farm workers and poultry and mammals across the planet.

“We are obviously in crisis mode,” Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro said at a public forum this week, noting that cases were occurring “dramatically earlier in the season than what we expected.”

Wild birds, including snow geese, that spent the winter in Pennsylvania were suspected to be the source of outbreaks in poultry, Shannon Powers, spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture, said in an email.

Pennsylvania is the fourth-largest egg-producing state.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES

Unusually frigid weather was thought to have sent wild birds away from rivers and ponds that froze and toward farms, said Dr. Megan Lighty, a veterinarian at Penn State University. Though the flu is fatal for poultry, some wild birds carry the virus without dying.

“The theory is that they were looking for sources of food and may have ventured closer to farms than they normally would,” Lighty said on Friday, noting she could not confirm that happened.

Most losses have occurred about an hour west of Philadelphia in Lancaster County, where farms are densely packed.

“We had birds in this area maybe a little bit earlier than we normally would have had,” said Chris Herr, executive vice president of Pennsylvania agribusiness association PennAg, referring to wild birds.

“In some cases, they got stuck here. They were looking for open water.”

FARMS REPORT OUTBREAKS

The highest risk periods for the virus to infect poultry flocks have historically been in spring and fall, when wild waterfowl migrate.

In 2025, Pennsylvania’s first commercial case of the year came in February, and it was the state’s first outbreak in more than a year, according to U.S. government data. This year, a farm with 1.5 million egg-laying hens reported an infection in late January after a commercial duck farm tested positive in December 2025.

All birds are culled at infected farms, and Pennsylvania farms with more than 7 million birds have reported outbreaks since January 28, according to U.S. data.

“If things are this bad now, once spring migration starts and we’ve got more birds moving through the area … my gut feeling is it’s probably going to get worse,” Lighty said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $4.20; Soyoil up 1.67.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 20 in SRW, up 15 in HRW, up 1/6 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/2; Soybeans up 23 1/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil up 3.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 17.6% in SRW, up 12.1% in HRW, up 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 0.6%; Soybeans up 12.1%; Soymeal up 5.9%; Soyoil up 30.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 7 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 96; Corn up 30 — Malaysian Palm is up 104.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 104 ringgit (+2.57%) at 4146.

There were changes in registrations (440 Corn, -52 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 449 Corn; 258 Soybeans; 1,244 Soyoil; 186 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 27 were: SRW Wheat up 4,477 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,362, Corn up 23,160, Soybeans up 3,261, Soymeal up 12,344, Soyoil up 110.

 

Brazil: Rain has moved to northern areas, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. However, the country needs the consistent rains to return as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Most of the southern half of the country will be drier this week, but showers may start to fill back in this weekend. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season.

Argentina: Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months, despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. This week, the forecast is favoring a couple of fronts to move through, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Temperatures will be cooler this week, however, limiting overall stress.

Northern Plains: A streak of moderate snow moved through over the weekend, but was thin and brief. A couple of systems will move around the region this week, but we could see a system bring a mix of rain and snow to the southeast on Friday. A very active weather pattern is forecast to continue next week, but the potential for heavy precipitation is low. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but the region needs some heavier precipitation prior to spring planting.

Central/Southern Plains: Soil moisture is generally pretty low across most of the region, despite no drought designation across Colorado and Kansas. The region is going to be very busy, however, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms into next week. Eastern areas are favored over the west, as drought in these areas could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy.

Midwest: Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting. A thin band of snow moved through over the weekend and another system brought showers into the south on Sunday, which continues into Monday, coming as a mix of rain and snow. However, warmer temperatures will move in afterward and multiple waves of showers will lead to widespread rain throughout the week and weekend. Improvement to drought and dryness is expected, though some areas have large deficits to overcome.

Delta: Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain will move through the Plains and Midwest, aiding the rivers, but precipitation will likely be limited until a front moves through this weekend. The heaviest precipitation may come through next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region.

Europe: Drier weather over the weekend has been a continuation since last week, which is actually preferred after a very wet pattern in the first two months of winter. However, another system will move into Spain early this week and bring showers into the Mediterranean throughout the week. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

Black Sea: Showers have been frequent during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. However, the region will see multiple cold fronts this week and next, which should reinforce some cooler air, but only bring through limited precipitation.

 

The player sheet for 2/27 had funds: net buyers of 9,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 19,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 257,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year that began September 1, 2025.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 135,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 210,000 tons on Friday, European traders said. It was possible more purchases could be made, traders said. The corn was expected to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender, European traders said. The KFA’s Incheon section, also called the Feed Buyers’ Group, was believed to have purchased the corn expected to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa from trading house Olam.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s main state buying agency, the General Food Security Authority, on Monday purchased around 794,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender, it said. This was above the 655,000 tons sought. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 3.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 4.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 13.

 

TODAY

US CROP EXPORTS: 257,000 Tons of Corn to Unknown Buyers

The US Department of Agriculture on Friday announces export sales activity on its website:

257,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for 2025-26 marketing year

 

CROP TENDER: USDA Buys $43 Million of Soybeans for Asia Shipment

The US Department of Agriculture purchased 91,400 metric tons of US soybeans for shipment to Asia under the Food for Progress program, the agency said in a Friday statement.

• Agency was initially seeking 96,800 tons, with “shortfall due to lack of freight offers”

 

CROP SURVEY: US Jan. Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of five anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 226.4m bu in Jan., a 6.5% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of January seen at 2.417b lbs, up from 1.817b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 3.3% y/y to 483.3m bu

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Output Estimate Cut to 177.72m T: Safras

Compares with previous estimate of 179.28m tons, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in emailed report.

• New estimate represents an increase of 3.4% over 2024/25 season
• Planted area is seen increasing 1.5%, to 48.33m hectares
• Soy exports are projected at 105m tons in 2026, compared to 108.2m tons in 2025
• 2026 soy crushing seen at 60m tons, while for 2025 was 58.5m tons
• Estimate for total soy offer in 2026 is at 182.43m tons, with demand at 168.42m tons

 

Safras lowers forecast for Brazil’s soy crop; Rabobank hikes estimate

Agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado lowered its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop on Friday, citing adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul state, while analysts at Rabobank increased their estimate on overall favorable field conditions.

Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter.

SAFRAS & MERCADO

• Brazil is set to produce 177.72 million metric tons of soybean this season, Safras said, lowering its projection from a previous 179.28 million tons.
• Output would still reach a record, it said.
• “There have been specific yield adjustments, especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, due to climate stress,” analyst Rafael Silveira said.
• Soybean exports were pegged at 105 million tons, while crushing would hit 60 million tons.

RABOBANK

• Rabobank estimated Brazil’s soy crop at 181 million tons, up 2 million tons from its previous report.
• “Crop conditions were rated good-to-excellent across most growing regions, prompting RaboResearch to raise its output forecast,” it said.
• Rabobank forecast exports to total 112 million tons this season.

 

China Halts Canada Canola Meal Tariffs, Adding to Trade Thaw

China said it would drop tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and lobsters, easing disruptions to agricultural trade after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit.

The halt — which also applies to peas and crabs — will take effect from March 1 to Dec. 31, the government said Friday. It comes after Canada pledged to significantly cut import duties on 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, helping to repair a trade rift that has tested relations between the nations.

However, it remains unclear what level China will lower tariffs to on rapeseed itself, a crop known as canola in Canada. Carney had signaled that duties on the product would be dropped to 15% as of March 1, a significant reduction.

China is willing to work with Canada to “push for the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China-Canada ties,” a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said in a statement.

The thaw follows a prolonged period of tensions after Canada imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminum in 2024. That prompted Beijing to respond with 100% duties on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal and start an anti-dumping probe that also led to levies on rapeseed.

Canola futures have climbed in the wake of Carney’s visit, recently reaching the highest level since August. Prices eased as much as 0.7% Friday after the measures fell short of reducing levels on whole canola seeds.

Canada is the world’s largest exporter of the oilseed, which is crushed into cooking oil and animal feed, and traders in China had already begun booking cargoes in anticipation of the change.

The disruptions in the rapeseed-meal trade had posed a challenge for China’s fishery sector, as shrimp, crab and carp all feed heavily on the product.

 

China to Levy 5.9% Anti‑Dumping Duty on Canadian Rapeseed

China will impose a 5.9% anti‑dumping duty on rapeseed imports from Canada starting March 1, the Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday.

• The decision was made after finding shipments were dumped and caused material injury to the domestic industry
• Duration of the levy will be five years

 

Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Exports Fall 21.46% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Feb. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Feb. 2026: 1.149m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 276,775 tons, 24.1% of total

 

Malaysia’s February palm oil exports seen at 1,025,449 metric tons – Amspec Agri

MALAYSIA’S FEBRUARY PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,025,449 METRIC TONS VERSUS 1,375,718 METRIC TONS DURING JANUARY – AMSPEC AGRI

 

Indonesia Raises CPO Reference Price to $938.87/Ton for March

Indonesia raises crude palm oil reference price to $938.87 per ton for March from $918.47 per ton in February, according to trade ministry’s decree posted on website.

• Reference price will raise CPO export tax to $124 per ton in March
• NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy to the Indonesia Plantation Fund Management Agency, known as the BPDP

 

Ukraine can lose some winter grain crops due to extreme frost, scientists say

Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in “relatively satisfactory” condition but up to 20% of the crops in some fields might be lost due to severe frost in February, scientists of the Ukrainian National Academy of Agrarian Sciences said on Monday.

Scientists said winter barley and certain wheat varieties were at risk.

Extreme frosts hit Ukraine in February, with temperatures dropping to minus 28 degrees Celsius (minus 18.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices fall in February, returning to 2024 levels

Soybean prices dropped again this week, driving February’s average to the lowest real-term level since 2024. The decline is related to the depreciation of dollar against the Brazilian Real, which lowers export parity and reduces the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans compared to the product from the United States. Moreover, expectations of high supply in Brazil reinforce the downward trend.

In spite of weather issues in key producing regions, players surveyed by Cepea are optimistic about the final output. Possible losses in the production potential in some areas of the South and Southeast could be offset by good performance in other producing regions, limiting the overall impact on total production. According to data from Conab, 32.3% of the area in Brazil had been harvested up to February 21.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.8% from Feb. 19-26, to close at BRL 120.32 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 26. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 1.8% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 126.77 per 60-kg bag. Monthly averages this month (up to Feb. 26), at BRL 120.06/bag (Paraná) and BRL 126.30/bag (Paranaguá) moved down 4% and 3.6%, respectively, against January and are the lowest level since February/24, in real terms (IGP-DI January/26). The US dollar closed at BRL 5.144 on February 26, moving down 1.6% against that observed on Feb. 19.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal downed 1.9% from Feb. 19-26. The Brazilian value of soy oil upped 0.6% in the same comparison, averaging BRL 6,437.27 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on February 26.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Agents focus on crops; prices steady in São Paulo, but fall in Southern Brazil

Producers in Brazil are focused on crop activities, particularly on soybean harvesting and deliveries, which limits the supply of corn in the spot market.

In consuming regions, such as in São Paulo state, lower supply against demand have kept prices firm. On the other hand, in areas in Southern Brazil (which are currently harvesting the summer crop), quotations are moving down.

From February 19-26, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices upped 0.7%, to close at BRL 69.28 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 26. However, in Ponta Grossa (Paraná), quotations moved down 2.5% in the same comparison. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values rose 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) but dropped 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) between Feb. 19 and 26.

CROPS – Planting activities of the second crop hit 46.7% of the area in Brazil up to February 21, close to the 53.2% on the average over the last five crops – data from Conab. Concerning the summer crop, the harvesting reached 20.5% (against 22.2% over the last five years) also according to Conab.

 

Indonesia has seized 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations, task force says

Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations and industrial forest concessions, 1.7 million of which have been handed over to state firm Agrinas Palma Nusantara, a spokesperson with the task force said on Monday.

 

US says research funding into new farm practices to surpass $1 billion

The United States will invest an additional $200 million in research into new and sustainable farm practices, bringing the total to more than $1 billion, the government said on Friday.

The administration is pushing efforts to reduce the use of pesticides by finding alternatives.

The Department of Health and Human Services will give researchers $100 million to probe the exposure, diagnosis, and treatment of cumulative chemical exposures on individual health. It will give another $100 million to identify new ways of reducing reliance on chemical crop protection tools.

HHS made the announcement in a joint release with the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Agriculture.

President Donald Trump last week moved to ensure the domestic supply of phosphorus and glyphosate, a widely used weed-killer at the center of tens of thousands of lawsuits by plaintiffs claiming it causes cancer.

The move dismayed activists from the politically influential pro-Trump Make America Healthy Again movement, which opposes the widespread use of glyphosate due to health concerns.

 

India Warns of Hotter-Than-Usual Months as Health Risks Seen

India is forecast to see above-normal temperatures in the coming months, potentially boosting power demand and posing a severe health risk to residents.

There is an increased likelihood of more heatwave days across many parts of the country in the three months through May 31, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said in an online briefing on Saturday. Above-normal maximum temperatures are very likely over most areas in the three-month period, he said.

Such conditions could lift electricity demand in the country, prompting greater reliance on coal-fired generation to meet peak loads. A sustained rise in temperatures would also threaten rural incomes and add food-price pressures, complicating policymakers’ efforts to contain inflation.

Still, maximum temperatures in March will likely be normal to below-normal in many parts of the country, while above-average minimum temperatures are expected over most parts except some areas of northwest region, the weather office said.

Any abnormal increase in temperatures in March may pose a risk to winter-sown crops, which are at a developmental stage when excessive heat can curb yields and diminish quality.

Any prolonged hot weather this month may pull down India’s wheat output below last season’s record, undermining government efforts to secure adequate supplies, especially for its various welfare programs, including a fixed quantity of free distribution of grains to about 800 million people every month.

The world’s second-largest wheat producer permitted limited overseas shipments under a quota system in February, partially easing restrictions that had been in place for more than three years. However, a smaller harvest could prompt authorities to reconsider that move, potentially tightening supplies again in a market already sensitive to weather-driven disruptions.

Global climate models are forecasting above-normal temperatures in March across much of India, particularly in the northern half, data from the US Climate Prediction Center show. Taking an average across major US and Canadian models, swathes of northern India are expected to see temperatures up to 1C above normal this month, and as much as 2C above normal in parts of the northwest, according to the center.

Rainfall in March is likely to be normal across most parts, the weather office said. Any decrease in precipitation during a critical growing period may force farmers to rely more heavily on irrigation, potentially lifting input costs at a time when margins are already under strain from volatile weather conditions.

India ranks among the countries most exposed to climate change, with increasingly frequent bouts of extreme weather — from heat waves and floods to severe droughts — claiming hundreds of lives each year and undermining farm productivity.

Beyond agriculture, the volatility also strains the energy system, driving up demand for fossil fuels during temperature spikes while depleting hydropower output when reservoirs run low.

 

 

 

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