Global Ag News For May 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US and China reach deal to slash trade tariffs

The United States and China said on Monday they have agreed a deal to slash reciprocal tariffs for now as the world’s two biggest economies seek to end a trade war that has disrupted the global outlook and set financial markets on edge.

Speaking after talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the two sides had agreed on a 90 day pause on measures and that tariffs would come down by over 100 percentage points to 10%.

“Both countries represented their national interest very well,” Bessent said. “We both have an interest in balanced trade, the U.S. will continue moving towards that.”

Bessent was speaking alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after the weekend talks in which both sides had hailed progress on narrowing differences.

The Geneva meetings were the first face-to-face interactions between senior U.S. and Chinese economic officials since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to power and launched a global tariff blitz, imposing particularly hefty duties on China.

Since taking office in January, Trump has hiked the tariffs paid by U.S. importers for goods from China to 145%, in addition to those he imposed on many Chinese goods during his first term and the duties levied by the Biden administration.

China hit back by putting export curbs on some rare earth elements, vital for U.S. manufacturers of weapons and electronic consumer goods, and raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.

The tariff dispute brought nearly $600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill, disrupting supply chains, sparking fears of stagflation and triggering some layoffs.

Financial markets have been looking out for signs of a thaw in the trade war and Wall Street stock futures climbed and the dollar firmed against safe haven peers on Monday as the talks boosted hopes a global recession might be avoided.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil up 1.55.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 13 1/2 in SRW, down 19 1/2 in HRW, down 18 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans up 20; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 1.16.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 1/4 in SRW, down 12 1/2 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 23 1/2; Soybeans up 22 3/4; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 1.15.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.3% in SRW, down 9.4% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 3.4%; Soybeans up 4.8%; Soymeal down 5.2%; Soyoil up 21.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 19 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil up 16; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 13.

Malaysia markets are closed for holiday.

 

There were changes in registrations (-12 SRW Wheat, 1 Oats). Registration total: 247 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 135 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 986 Soyoil; 783 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 9 were: SRW Wheat up 8,957 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,117, Corn up 6,068, Soybeans up 4,602, Soymeal up 3,428, Soyoil down 2,581.

 

Northern Plains: It was warm and dry over the weekend, allowing for a lot of fieldwork to get done. It was also a little breezy though, and that may have slowed some folks down due to blowing dust. Some streaks of showers will be possible early this week. But a larger system will move through with more widespread and potentially moderate to heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Showers may linger over eastern areas on Friday. Models disagree on the coverage and amounts, but this should be a good shot to get some needed rain after planting. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week, but they aren’t as good as what we’ll see this week. If it disappoints, then we could see drought returning.

Central/Southern Plains: It was largely dry over the weekend with warmer temperatures north and much cooler temperatures south. Some spotty showers did occur across the south, though. A larger system will move across the Northern Plains midweek and could bring showers to the region. Nebraska has a good chance of seeing some much-needed rainfall. A better system should move through this weekend into early next week though. That has a much better chance at more widespread showers, which would include Nebraska as well. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall, but Nebraska certainly needs it. This pattern is better for that.

Midwest: It was dry over the weekend with very warm temperatures building in the northwest. That will spread eastward this week. An upper-low in the Southeast will spread showers into eastern areas early this week. Then a system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere. Another system should roll through early next week with more rainfall potential that would be beneficial as well.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Scattered showers and mild temperatures occurred over the weekend. Showers should leave on Monday and a short dry stretch is expected. A front will settle into the area on Friday that could bring showers through into Saturday as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall.

Canadian Prairies: Some limited showers developed over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry, favorable for fieldwork. Some breezy conditions may have slowed down some planting due to blowing dust, but overall it has been easier to get seed in the ground and most areas are ahead of schedule so far. This week will be more chaotic as several impulses bring scattered showers through the region throughout the week and may be heavy in the east later this week. Temperatures will be trending colder throughout the week as well and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for precipitation as well. That could slow down the planting progress, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

Brazil: With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front moved through southern areas with showers over the weekend, which waned as the front made it into central Brazil. Much of the week looks rather dry, but another front may move into southern areas early next week.

Argentina: It was dry over the weekend after a front left northern areas on Friday. That should have allowed for good harvest conditions for corn and soybeans, as well as early planting for winter wheat. A complicated front will waffle over the country later this week and weekend and may get some showers into northern and eastern areas. More showers are possible next week, which would be helpful for winter wheat establishment.

Europe: A low in the Atlantic brought showers across Spain, France, and the UK over the weekend and will continue showers here through Wednesday and Spain through Thursday, being beneficial for most areas. A front dropped some showers over Poland this weekend, which was very much needed as well. Another system will drop showers through eastern areas later this week and could stick around for several days if it gets cutoff from the jet stream. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

Black Sea: Bands of showers fell over the weekend as a couple of disturbances continued to move through the region, a continuation from last week. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting precipitation back into the region. It’s also coming with a bunch of colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west throughout the week. Showers will continue periodically in this more active pattern as well.

China: Scattered showers fell on the North China Plain late last week, but many areas saw little rainfall and the trend has been for much drier conditions for central portions of the country. A few systems will move through this week and next, but with limited rainfall potential in the central, which may stress wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape with more seasonable temperatures. But they will be on a much cooler streak later this week into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast, but could be possible as the event nears.

 

The player sheet for 5/9 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, and buyers of 1,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 288,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico, including 95,100 tons for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began September 1, 2024, and the remaining 192,900 tons for delivery in 2025/26. The announcement followed a similar sale of U.S. corn to Mexico that was issued on Thursday.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to Pakistan for 2025/26 delivery. The announcement marked the second straight U.S. soybean sale to Pakistan in as many days.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korean import group the Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal to be sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China, European traders said. The KFA’s Incheon and Busan sections are believed to have jointly made the purchase from trading house Cofco at an estimated $349.99 a metric ton c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading, they said.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was May 6, and offers were still being considered, they said.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is May 20.

 

 

 

TODAY

China buys Canadian, Australian wheat as heat hits crop, traders say

Chinese buyers bought between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tons of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks, traders said, as heat threatens to damage crops in China’s agricultural heartlands.

China is the world’s top wheat grower and also imports large amounts of grain when domestic supply falls short of demand.

Earlier this week, Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s crop, issued a risk warning as hot, dry weather threatened the wheat growing in its fields.

Chinese buyers have purchased four or five 55,000-ton shipments of wheat from Australia for delivery in July or August and around 200,000 tons from Canada, sources at two major trading firms in Australia said. The wheat is of milling quality.

The bookings from Australia were the first made by China from the country since last year, said one of the traders.

COFCO, the state-owned Chinese firm that handles most of the country’s wheat imports, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China has in recent years been one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, buying in around 11 million tons worth $3.5 billion in 2024. Australia and Canada are typically its biggest suppliers.

But shipments slowed sharply after China reaped large wheat and corn harvests last year and have since remained low.

China delayed or redirected shipments from Australia earlier this year and imported less than a million tons of wheat in the seven months to March 31, Chinese customs data accessed through Trade Data Monitor show.

One of the sources said their company had lowered its forecast of Chinese 2025 wheat production by around 5 million tons but there was no guarantee that more purchases would follow because China has large wheat inventories.

“China is well self-sufficient in feed grains this crop year with heavy stocks,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth, adding that faltering economic growth in China was also depressing demand for grains.

Talk of Canadian wheat sales to China has echoed around agricultural business circles in Winnipeg, Canada’s grain industry capital, according to traders. Few concrete details on the sales have emerged.

Chinese buyers would have avoided buying U.S. wheat due to tariffs and the trade war between Washington and Beijing, one trader said. China in the past has been a top destination for U.S. wheat sales.

The drop-off in Chinese imports earlier in the current 2024/25 season had contributed to subdued international wheat prices, with benchmark futures Wv1 in Chicago still near a four-year low touched last July.

Along with weather risks to China’s upcoming harvest, attractive prices may have lured Chinese importers back into the market as the 2025/26 season approaches, traders said.

 

Brazil, China discuss railway from Peruvian port to Brazil territory

Brazil is in talks with China to build a railway connecting the Chinese-built mega Chancay port in Peru to Brazilian regions, Planning Minister Simone Tebet said on Friday.

“They are very interested in helping Brazil, in crisscrossing the country with railways,” Tebet told local outlet Carta Capital in an interview.

Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the inauguration of the deepwater port in November.

The $1.3 billion Chancay project is Beijing’s largest investment in South America and part of its push to expand trade and influence across the continent.

Tebet said her team met just over a month ago with a Chinese group representing the country’s state-owned railway company to discuss a potential route linking the port to Brazil, based on the view that Chancay lies on the shortest path to China, cutting maritime trade distance by at least 10,000 kilometers (6,210 miles).

Initially, the Chinese side had considered a route through the Amazon region, but the Brazilian government firmly rejected the idea due to the presence of the rainforest and indigenous peoples, Tebet said.

“They ended up understanding, after a full analysis, and the idea now is to chart a southern route,” she said, noting that the railway would pass through the states of Acre and Tocantins, eventually reaching Bahia and connecting to the West-East Integration Railway (FIOL).

The FIOL railway, which remains under construction, will stretch about 1,527 kilometers from Figueiropolis in Tocantins to the Atlantic port of Ilheus in Bahia.

Tebet acknowledged that the project would take time to materialize but said it would be transformative for economic development in Brazil’s poorer interior regions.

“You could be talking about five years, maybe eight, to see a project like this completed,” she added.

 

2024/25 Brazil’s soy exports might hit a record despite U.S.-China trade uncertainties

In the U.S. trade disputes with China have led to cancellations and reduced new sales of U.S. soybeans to the country. Through May 1, U.S. exports to China totaled 22.41 million tons, down 6.8% from last year. With a total of 47.7 million tons of U.S. soybeans sold already (over 96% of export projection), the lack of Chinese buyers for the remaining season will not significantly impact 2024/25 outlooks. We estimated 2024/25 U.S. soybean exports at 49.4 million tons. However, if U.S.-China trade wars continue, 2025/26 outlooks could be disappointing. Alternatively, a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China might benefit U.S. grain/oilseed exports.

Over the past season, Brazil soybean exports dropped from 103.9 million tons in 2022/23 (Feb 2023-Jan 2024) to 97.0 million tons in 2023/24 (Feb 2024-Jan 2025) due to lower production in the country. Exports to China also declined. Especially for the last five months of the season (Sep 2024-Jan 2025), Brazilian exports to China dropped by 37% year-on-year due to the depletion of stocks. This season, Brazil harvested 169 million tons of soybeans, a 22 million ton increase, according to LSEG agriculture research. We thus forecast Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean exports to reach 108.3 million tons, given adequate supply and China’s strong demand to replenish its inventory. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential U.S.-China trade deal.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Sales at 57%, 2025/26 at 7.9%: Safras

Soy sales for the 2024/25 season are at 57% of the projected output, according to data as of May 9, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in an emailed report.

• Compares with 50.7% in April 8 report, with 64.6% a year ago and 5-year average of 70.3%
  • 2024/25 harvest estimated at 172.45m tons
• For 2025/26 season, sales are at 7.9%
  • Compares with 3.7% in April 8 report, with 9.9% a year ago and 5-year average of 17.2%
  • 2025/26 harvest estimated at 182.57m tons

 

CORN/CEPEA: Good expectations for crops keep purchasers away and prices, dropping

The summer crop harvesting has been advancing, while the second crop has presented a good development, favored by the weather conditions. This scenario keeps corn prices dropping, since purchasers remain away from closing trades, expecting new devaluations.

Up to mid-March, logistical difficulties, the lower availability and concerns about limited inventories had been keeping the values at high levels. Moreover, some purchasers, fearing the restricted supply, had accepted to buy the corn at superior prices.

However, since April, quotations have been dropping and, in this early May, the decrease of international values and dollar, which reduce the export parity, reinforced the downward trend of domestic prices.

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 5.2% between April 30 and May 8, closing at BRL 75.93 per 60-kilo bag on May 8.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from April 30 to May 8, corn values decreased 2.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 4.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

EXPORTS – Exports totaled 178.34 thousand tons of corn in April, 170% more than in April/24 – data from Secex. The higher production this crop may keep exports moving at a good pace during this year.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Liquidity is low in Brazil

Trades involving soybean have been moving at a slow pace in this early May, limited by the difference between the prices offered by purchasers compared to those asked by sellers.

Purchasers are focused on decreases of international quotations and of export premiums in Brazil, which had reduced the export parity. Moreover, the scenario is of record supply and high availability in Argentina.

Sellers, in turn, have their eyes on the good performance of exports in April, expecting a higher international demand for the coming months.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) upped only 0.3% from April 30 to May 8, closing at BRL 132.52 per 60-kg bag on May 8. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) remained practically unchanged in the same comparison, at BRL 127.88 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 0.7% both in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar kept stable against Real between April 30 and May 8, closing at BRL 5.671 on May 8.

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 15.27 million tons of soybeans in April, the third highest volume, behind only June/23 (15.58 million tons) and April/21 (16.11 million tons).

CROPS – Concerning the 2024/25 crop, Conab indicates that 97.7% of the area had been harvested up to May 3.

 

Analyst APK-Inform cuts Ukraine 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8%

Analyst APK-Inform has cut its 2025 grain harvest forecast for Ukraine by 3.8% to 55.3 million metric tons, largely because of lower than expected corn output.

The consultancy said Ukraine’s corn harvest could be 7.3% lower than its previous forecast and could total 27 million tons.

APK-Inform also lowered its Ukraine 2025/26 July-June season grain exports forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons, down from the previous projection of 42.6 million tons.

The consultancy gave no reason for the reduced outlook.

The agriculture ministry has not yet issued its 2025 grain harvest outlook but said the 2025 sowing area could be similar to that in 2024.

 

Ukraine’s Spring Grain Sowing on Par With Last Year: Ministry

Ukrainian farmers planted spring grains across 4.32m hectares (10.67m acres) as of Friday, same as a year ago, the agriculture ministry says on its website.

• This accounts for 76% of projected areas
• The total includes:
  • 2.9m hectares of corn, up 2.1% y/y
  • 733,400 hectares of spring barley, down 6% y/y
  • 212,600 hectares of spring wheat, down 13% y/y
• Sunflower was sown on 3.5m hectares, down 11% y/y
• Soybean at 1.3m hectares, up 8% y/y
• Sugar beet at 217,100 hectares, down 15% y/y
• Agriculture ministry sees total spring grain planting on 5.7m hectares in 2025, same as for the previous year

 

US Pork Production Falls 2% This Week, Beef Down: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 529m pounds for the week ending May 10 from 540m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter down 2% from a week ago to 2.437m head
• Beef production unchanged from a week ago, cattle slaughter unchanged at 559m head
• For the year, beef production is 2.6% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.8% below

 

India’s monsoon rains to arrive early, brightening outlook for crops

Monsoon rains are expected to hit India’s southern coast on May 27, five days earlier than usual, marking the earliest arrival in at least five years, the weather office said, raising hopes for bumper harvests of crops such as rice, corn, and soybean.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country’s $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and recharge aquifers and reservoirs. Nearly half of India’s farmland, without any irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow a number of crops.

Forecasts of early and abundant monsoon rains are expected to alleviate concerns about potential risks to food supplies amid the current military conflict between India, the world’s most populous nation, and its neighbour Pakistan.

Summer rains usually begin to lash the southernmost coasts of Kerala state around June 1 and spread across the whole country by mid-July, triggering the planting of crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27, with a model error of plus/minus four days, the India Meteorological Department said on Saturday.

Last year, the monsoon reached the coast of Kerala on May 30, and overall summer rains were the highest since 2020, helping the country recover from a drought of 2023.

The India Meteorological Department last month forecast above-average monsoon rains for the second straight year in 2025.

The department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

Early monsoon rains will encourage farmers in India, the world’s largest rice exporter, to start planting earlier. Reuters reported last week that a bumper crop would limit any rebound in global rice prices this year.

 

 

 

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