Global Ag News For May 16.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Suitors Eye Soy Trader as Judges Open Bankruptcy Case to Bidders

Creditors and trading houses are circling Argentine soy giant Vicentin SAIC after judges pushed the bankruptcy case wide open to other bidders, according to people familiar with the matter.

A provincial court this week ruled that the case should move to a so-called cramdown, after a takeover plan led by crops trader Bunge Global SA was rejected earlier this year. Under the cramdown, proposals can be lodged to restructure Vicentin’s $1.3 billion of unsecured debt and take ownership of the company, with a view to rekindling vast export operations.

The latest development may signal the long-running saga for control of Vicentin is in its final stretch. The company was built up over decades by the Vicentin family dynasty that took on global commodity trading houses such as Cargill Inc. and Louis Dreyfus Co. But that all unraveled in 2019 after the company was exposed to a currency run, which forced a default on its debt.

Brokerage house Grassi, one of the biggest commercial creditors that successfully led efforts to block Vicentin’s rescue deal with Bunge, is preparing a submission and is in talks with international trading houses and other potential partners for backing, according to one person familiar with the matter.

Glencore-backed Viterra Inc., whose global operations are being acquired by Bunge, also plans to participate in some way in the bidding but hasn’t made a final decision, said another person, who couldn’t be named discussing private information.

A representative for Viterra in Argentina didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. A spokesman for Vicentin declined to comment.

Viterra already controls 67% of Renova SA, whose Timbues processing plant on the Parana River is a top asset in global soy trading. Whoever wins in the cramdown stands to land the prize of Vicentin’s 33% share.

Vicentin had originally won creditor approval in 2022 for its exit plan from bankruptcy protection with Bunge. Legal wrangling with hostile creditors ensued, and in February the deal was ruled unconstitutional. But it’s only now that judges have said the case should proceed to a cramdown.

Once the cramdown is actually opened, bidders have several days to lodge their interest.

Key to deciding the outcome will be private equity firm Cima Investments SA. Late last year, Cima acquired enough of Vicentin’s defaulted debt from a group of global banks to have, in essence, veto rights on any new restructuring offer to creditors. Cima also remains open to having equity, said one person.

Vicentin’s family directors, who would have kept a 5% stake in the company had the arrangement with Bunge gone through, don’t plan to form part of any proposal, according to one person.

After the Bunge deal — which would have paid creditors just 20 cents on the dollar, with a provision for 10 cents more — was deemed unconstitutional, Vicentin appealed to the federal supreme court, its final legal recourse. That appeal is still to be determined, but Argentina’s high court is notoriously slow and a decision could take years. In the meantime, the cramdown can proceed.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 1.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, down 15 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil down 0.83.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, down 18 in HRS; Corn is down 26 3/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil down 0.82.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.1% in SRW, down 6.0% in HRW, down 3.0% in HRS; Corn is down 2.2%; Soybeans up 5.3%; Soymeal down 3.7%; Soyoil up 20.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 16 yuan; Soymeal down 1; Soyoil down 88; Palm oil down 98; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 43 ringgit (-1.11%) at 3825.

There were changes in registrations (-18 SRW Wheat, -90 Corn, -133 Soyoil). Registration total: 221 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 111 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 15 were: SRW Wheat down 2,292 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,019, Corn up 6,431, Soybeans up 1,541, Soymeal up 293, Soyoil down 6,006.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 15 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Wet weather will favor the Canadian Prairies through the next 10 days, though dry weather is likely to return thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: There is no end in sight for widespread warm and dry weather across Brazil, having mixed impacts on crops throughout
• AFRICA: Favorable wet weather is expected across many cocoa regions of West Africa during the next 10+ days
• BLACK SEA: Cool and wet weather will favor most croplands across the Black Sea region through the end of May

 

Northern Plains: A larger system is moving through with moderate to heavy rainfall through Friday across the Dakotas. This should be a good shot to get some needed rain after many have finished planting already. However, colder temperatures should follow the system into next week, and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well.

Central/Southern Plains: A larger system moving across the Northern Plains brought some heavy thunderstorms to parts of Nebraska on Wednesday that continues for Thursday, which was sorely needed, but did not cover the whole state. A better system should move through Sunday into early next week with a much better chance at more widespread showers across the region, which would include Nebraska again. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall but it could start to dry out if next week’s system misses. Those in the southwest are less likely to see precipitation and a return to dryness may occur.

Midwest: An upper-low has been spreading showers across much of the region this week. That ends Thursday, but a system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere. Another system should roll through early-mid next week with more rainfall potential as part of a more active and milder pattern to end the month.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front will settle into the area on Friday that could bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall. Several disturbances moving through next week could bring additional showers, but an overall drying trend is expected next week.

Canadian Prairies: A system is wrapping up in the Northern Plains, but will continue scattered showers in the East through Friday. Temperatures are trending colder and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for scattered showers as well. That could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

Brazil: With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front will move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

Argentina: Good harvest conditions have been in place for a while now for corn and soybeans, as well as early planting for winter wheat. A complicated front will waffle over the country through the weekend and bring scattered showers. More showers are possible next week, which would be helpful for winter wheat establishment.

Europe: A low in the Atlantic continues showers across Spain on Thursday and has been beneficial for eastern areas over the last several days. Another system is dropping showers through eastern areas and continues them into next week. Another low or two could move through southern portions of the continent next week with scattered showers. Germany is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain.

 

ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD A HOT AND DRY SUMMER IN NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Large-scale hot and dry weather could be in store for North America during June-August
• Consensus among forecast inputs increases overall confidence
• Short-term model trends throughout the growing season, as well as our monthly outlooks for June, July, and August, for any signs of pattern trends and/or confidence adjustments in what is a uniquely high confident forecast for the moment.

 

The player sheet for 5/15 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 22,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 11,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia issued a tender to buy 655,000 metric tons of wheat for the August to October 2025 shipment period, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is May 16, and results are expected on May 19
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have made no substantial purchase in a tender that closed on Tuesday for up to 320,000 metric tons of corn to be sourced only from Argentina or Brazil.
• LOCAL WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt, a top wheat importer, bought 2.5 million metric tons of wheat from local farmers so far this season, the cabinet said in a statement.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 772.7K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2.19M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending May 8.

• Corn sales rose to 2,186k tons vs 1,681k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 805k tons vs 563k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 773k tons vs 387k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending May 8, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Pakistan with 345k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 781k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Unknown Buyers with 183k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending May 8, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 10.6k tons of the 24.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

NOPA April US soy crush at 190.226 mln bushels, tops most trade estimates

The U.S. soybean crush declined in April but still outpaced most trade estimates and marked the highest-ever total for the fourth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Thursday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 190.226 million bushels of the oilseed last month, down 2.2% from the March crush of 194.551 million bushels but up 12.3% from the April 2024 crush of 169.436 million bushels.

Soy crush rates generally have ramped up in recent years as new processing plants have come online and other facilities expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

The April crush was above the average analyst estimate of 184.642 million bushels in a Reuters poll of nine analysts. Estimates had ranged from 180.0 million to 191.0 million bushels, with a median of 184.3 million bushels.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of April 30 rose to 1.527 billion pounds, up 1.9% from 1.498 billion pounds at the end of March but down 16.6% from the 1.832 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to fall to 1.412 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.275 billion to 1.500 billion pounds, with a median of 1.425 billion pounds.

 

Brazil 2024-25 Corn Crop Seen at 126.9M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 124.7m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 126.9m tons
• Yield seen higher at 5,933 kg/ha vs 5,853 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 21.387m ha vs 21.313m ha last month
• Soybean production est. raised to 168.3m tons vs 167.9m tons

 

Argentina Soy Forecast Bumped 6.6% on ‘Surprise’ Yields: Rosario

As the harvest reaches 66% completion, “a notable recovery has been established in soy yields across all of the provinces on the Pampas,” the Rosario Board of Trade said in a monthly estimates report.

• In the key “zona nucleo” region, yields are being reported that farmers would have thought impossible earlier in the year
  • That’s thanks to rains that came in from the Atlantic during what had been a dry La Nina season
• Production now forecast at 48.5m metric tons vs 45.5m last month
• NOTE: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate stands at 50m
• CORN
  • Rosario corn forecast kept at 48.5m
• WHEAT
  • The new 2025-26 wheat crop that will start to get planted soon could see an area of 7.2m hectares (17.8m acres), the most in at least 15 years and 4% more than last season
  • Improving soil moisture reserves on farms since end-February paints a bright picture for wheat growing
  • If yields come in around the historical average, production could be ~21m tons

 

Argentina’s soy farmers race ahead with harvest to beat the rains

• Soy harvest delayed by strong rains, impacting Argentina’s economy
• Farmers race against forecasted storms to harvest soybeans
• El Niño phenomenon expected to bring more rain, complicating harvest

On Cristian Giacobone’s farm in the heart of Argentina’s Pampas plains, workers in the soy fields have been up since dawn, racing to harvest the rain-delayed crop before the arrival of new storms that will make threshing more difficult.

The soy crop, the main export of the South American country’s embattled economy, has been delayed by unusually strong rains, weighing on sales of the oilseed that are running at the slowest pace in some 11 years.

Now, with a window of dry weather – but with more rains forecast – farmers are speeding up their operations.

“We have a very small harvest window,” Giacobone said from his 60-hectare (148-acre) soy field in San Andrés de Giles, about 100 km (62 miles) west of Buenos Aires.

“The weather conditions from February until now have seen persistent rains,” he added, citing an accumulated rainfall of almost 580 mm (22.83 inches). “This was the main reason for delays, due to soil conditions both in and out of the fields.”

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soy oil and meal, with soybean production this season estimated at 50 million metric tons by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. The indebted country needs soy dollars to replenish depleted foreign currency reserves.

But the delays have raised fears the harvest could end up lower due to the impact of fungi or the opening of soy pods in the plant, turning every dry hour into gold for farmers, who are even harvesting in muddy fields, at the expense of compacting the soil and making future planting difficult.

“What the producer is doing is making the decision to leave early in the morning, rather than wait for the grains to dry out and extend the day’s work despite higher costs,” Giacobone said.

Typically, farmers go out with combine harvesters later in the day when grain moisture level is lower to avoid additional drying costs.

 

Tour projects Kansas wheat yield at 53 bushels per acre, highest since 2021

The wheat yield potential in Kansas was estimated at 53 bushels per acre (bpa) on Thursday by crop scouts on the annual Wheat Quality Council tour, the highest since 2021.

The figure is above the tour’s five-year average of 44.3 bpa from 2019-2024, reflecting good rainfall in April that helped to curb the effects of drought. No tour was held in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Drought in 2023 drove Kansas wheat farmers to abandon about a third of the crop, with fields turned over to grazing animals, plowed under or sprayed with pesticide, leaving miles of desiccated plants and a surge in crop insurance claims.

Two years later, thick, green stalks have shot through the cracked soil.

“Wheat’s a really hardy crop. It’s difficult to totally kill,” said Lee Scheufler, a farmer growing 4,000 acres of the grain near Sterling, a town in central Kansas.

Wheat Quality Council scouts, who sampled 449 fields across Kansas over three days, reported that the crop in the top U.S. wheat-producing state appeared likely to outperform recent years. Some fields, however, had been damaged by drought and disease, particularly the mite-borne wheat streak mosaic.

The virus is widespread across Kansas wheat fields. There is no way to treat the plants, and experts could not fully assess the severity of the infection. But miles of lush fields boosted optimism.

“This is the best-looking crop that I’ve seen in a number of years,” said Brian Walker, director of the National Wheat Foundation.

Tour scouts estimated Kansas wheat production at 338.5 million bushels, up from 307.45 million a year ago.

The U.S. Agriculture Department on Monday projected Kansas wheat production at 345 million bushels, with an average yield of 50 bushels per acre.

“I was quite impressed with the immense improvement from last year,” Scheufler said.

Kansas farmers planted 7.3 million acres of winter wheat for harvest in 2025, according to the USDA, down 4% from a year earlier.

In Kansas, where wheat appears in town names and decorates hotel lobbies, current prices are not much of an incentive to grow it, farmers said.

“We want to be competitive on the world market but we don’t want to price local crops out,” said Gary Millershaski, secretary-treasurer of U.S. Wheat Associates, an industry group. “I hate to see good wheat going to cows,” he said.

 

Brazil corn output rises as ethanol drives demand

Brazil’s corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach approximately 125mn metric tonnes, according to Paulo Bertolini, president of the Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers (Abramilho).

Speaking at the group’s congress in Brasília, Bertolini noted that domestic corn ethanol demand could more than double from current levels, Reuters reported.

“Corn ethanol is already consuming around 20mn tonnes of corn this year and has a tendency and a possibility of consuming more than double that in a short period of time,” he said.

Brazil is set to increase the ethanol blend in petrol from 27% to 30%, which could drive further demand. Citibank forecasts ethanol production to rise to 16bn litres by 2032, up from 9.5bn litres expected in the current crop year.

Bertolini also said some ethanol plants are preparing to process sorghum, with operations expected to begin later this year in Mato Grosso do Sul.

“Sorghum is quite interested in Brazil,” he said. “It is still underexplored, although we are the third-largest producer of sorghum in the world, but (production) is only 5mn tonnes.”

Sorghum could be an alternative for farmers missing the ideal window for second-crop corn.

 

Ukraine 2025 spring grain sowing 87% complete, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.95 million hectares of grain as of May 16, or 87% of the expected area, versus 5.1 million hectares sown a year earlier, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

The area included 743,100 hectares of spring barley, 215,200 hectares of spring wheat, 3.5 million hectares of corn, 210,900 hectares of peas and 158,300 hectares of oats and some other cereals, the ministry said.

Farmers had also sown 3.9 million hectares of sunflower and 1.73 million hectares of soybean, and 217,000 hectares of sugar beet, it added.

Ukraine’s state agricultural meteorologists said this week that weather conditions in early May were mostly satisfactory for Ukrainian grain fields, but frost and drought in southern regions had damaged or killed some winter wheat, peas, rapeseed and barley crops.

The future harvest depends to a significant extent on the plants having enough moisture for germination and further growth.

The first deputy agriculture minister told Reuters on Thursday that the ministry was keeping its 2025 grain harvest forecast at 56 million metric tons despite unfavourable weather in April and early May.

Ukraine harvested 56.2 million tons of grain in 2024.

 

French Soft-Wheat Conditions Ease; Corn Planting Accelerates

Some 73% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of May 12, slightly lower than the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• NOTE: Some northern growing areas of Europe have turned unfavorably dry and rains will be needed as winter-crops continue developing, USDA said in a report this week
• Corn planting was 90% complete, versus 79% the prior week and 70% last year

 

EPA Biofuel-Blending Proposal Sent to White House for Review

The Trump administration has sent its proposal for the next round of biofuel-blending quotas to the White House budget office for review, a government website shows.

• The move signals that the proposed “Renewable Volume Obligations,” or RVOs, from the Environmental Protection Agency may be close to being made public
  • It typically takes roughly 2-4 weeks for a rule at this stage in the regulatory process to be formally unveiled

 

Brazil’s Farms Are Well Financed for Long-Term Growth

Brazilian grain producers remain financially positioned to sustain planted area in the next seasons, even as high interest rates and input costs strain new investments. Optimism is supported by strong export prospects, rising domestic demand for feed and biofuels, and a weaker Brazilian real that boosts competitiveness. US-China trade talks could continue lifting international soybean prices, while narrowing Brazil’s regional price basis, improving the outlook for farmer margins.

 

Some Brazil sugar mills weighing switch to ethanol

Some sugarcane processors in Brazil are closely following the price gap between sugar and ethanol and could start making more of the biofuel if sugar prices continue to fall and oil prices continue their recovery from recent lows.

The possible switch in production strategy was a major topic at an annual sugar market meeting in New York this week.

“We haven’t talked about ethanol for a while, but with the gap narrowing the issue is back,” said sugar analyst Michael McDougall, referring to the price difference between sugar and ethanol for Brazilian sugarcane processors.

Most mills in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar maker and second largest ethanol producer, have flexibility to adjust their plants to make more or less sugar and ethanol, depending on the market prices for both products.

For roughly the last four years sugar has given better returns for mills, due to higher international prices for the sweetener and lower ethanol prices in the Brazilian domestic market.

“There is a potential change in the Brazilian production mix if sugar prices fall below 17 cents,” said Rodrigo Martini, head of Sugar & Ethanol at broker StoneX.

An international sugar trader, who asked not to be named, estimated that if sugar prices fall to around 16.5 cents per pound, Brazil would cut 1 million metric tons of sugar production as cane would be used to make ethanol instead.

Mills a long distance from sugar exporting ports in Brazil, in Goias or Mato Grosso do Sul states, for example, could make the switch earlier, said Gustavo Segantini, a director at sugar and ethanol maker Tereos, since they sell ethanol locally while to export sugar they have extra costs with logistics.

 

FDA plans to review chemicals in US food supply, official says

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration plans to step up safety reviews on chemicals in foods, including one widely used as a preservative in products containing fats, said Kyle Diamantas, the agency’s top food official, on Thursday.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose agency oversees the FDA, has pledged to tackle chronic illnesses by overhauling the U.S. diet. He has pushed for bans on synthetic food colors and encouraged fast-food chains to switch to beef tallow instead of seed oils for French fries.

The FDA, which has suffered mass layoffs under President Donald Trump, will update a list of chemicals that will be top priorities for reviews, said Diamantas, acting deputy commissioner for human foods.

“Historically FDA has been somewhat reactionary when it comes to reviewing chemicals in the food supply,” he said at a food safety conference outside Chicago. “The goal is to move to a proactive process to ensure that the chemicals in our food remain safe.”

The FDA will prioritize reviews of chemicals including butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT); butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA); and azodicarbonamide (ADA), Diamantas said. BHT is one of the most commonly used antioxidants in foods containing fats, according to the health department.

The FDA plans to release a scheme for highlighting other chemicals for reviews that will be available for public feedback this month, Diamantas said. Chemicals may be assessed based on consumers’ concerns or on other countries’ data and regulatory actions, he said.

Even as food chemicals and nutrition have received a lot of attention, Diamantas told the conference that the FDA is still committed to microbiological food safety, which is the agency’s division with the most employees and funding.

Kennedy said on Wednesday that the “central focus” of the FDA and National Institutes of Health will be on studying ultra-processed foods, sugars and food additives.

At the CDC, which also operates under Kennedy, an environmental health division endured layoffs and is no longer at the agency, said Megin Nichols, director of CDC’s division of foodborne, waterborne, and environmental diseases.

The division was critical to food safety and CDC continues to “maintain the spirit of that work,” Nichols said in a virtual appearance at the conference.

 

Egypt and Russia to Form Committee to Monitor Wheat Trade

Egypt and Russia will form a committee to monitor the North African nation’s wheat imports, the Supply Ministry in Cairo said in a statement.

• The committee will track imports of the grain from Russia to Egyptian ports and to the nation’s silos.
• The ministry said that Russia was a “strategic partner” for wheat supplies
• The two sides also discussed the technical challenges in implementing this system, as well as ways to ensure transparency, reduce waste, and enhance supply chain oversight.
• NOTE: Egypt is one of the world’s biggest wheat buyers, and state purchases are closely followed by the market to help keep track of global trade. Mostakbal Misr in late 2024 replaced The General Authority for Supply Commodities as the body overseeing imports. But the lack of known tenders since then and uncertainty over private purchases has made it harder to gauge flows, especially from key Black Sea suppliers.
• The country’s total wheat imports in the 2024-25 season are expected to reach 12.5 million tons, the US government estimates.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 739k tons in the week ending May 10 from 780k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 6.9% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $13.45 per short ton, a decline of $1.20 from the previous week

 

US Corn Crops in Drought Area Rise to 22%, Soybeans 17%: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending May 13, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas rose by 2 percentage points from the previous week to 22%
• Drought in soybean areas at 17%, up 2 points from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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