Global Ag News for May 2.23
All at Once, US Fertilizer Buyers Scramble for Supply
A spike in spring fieldwork and near-term demand caused fertilizer supplies to tighten at New Orleans and inland, contributing to higher prices for urea, phosphates and potash. China’s expected potash-supply contract looks like it will be later, and lower priced, as domestic inventory rises during the spring season.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 10 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil up 0.43.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 13 3/4 in SRW, down 15 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 18 3/4; Soymeal up $4.20; Soyoil up 0.57.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 3/4 in SRW, down 15 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 18 3/4; Soymeal up $4.20; Soyoil up 0.57.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 22.9% in SRW, down 11.2% in HRW, down 17.5% in HRS; Corn is down 4.7%; Soybeans down 3.9%; Soymeal down 8.9%; Soyoil down 18.4%. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 95 ringgit (+2.85%) at 3433.
China markets are closed for holiday.
There were changes in registrations (44 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 54 Oats; 11 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 848 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 45 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 1 were: SRW Wheat up 6,539 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,878, Corn up 12,514, Soybeans down 1,896, Soymeal up 1,596, Soyoil up 3,472.
Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers west Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Isolated showers east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Delta Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.
The player sheet for 5/1 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) set an international tender for wheat with a deadline on May 2. Offers are to be submitted on a free on board basis with shipment dates scheduled June 10-30 and/or July 1-20. Payment will be made at sight by the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation, GASC said.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 51,925 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
US Soybean Crushings at 198M Bushels in March: USDA
USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.
- Crushing 2.6% higher than same period last year
- Crude oil production 2.7% higher than same period last year
- Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 1.9% y/y
US Corn Used for Ethanol at 438M Bu in March
The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.
- Corn for ethanol was 3.4% lower than in March 2022
- DDGS production fell to 1.703m tons
Ukraine’s Grain Export Falls 9.3% Y/Y to 41.6M Tons Since July 1
Ukraine exported 3.6m tons of grain in April and 41.6m tons of grain so far in the season that started on July 1, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.
- The season-to-date total includes:
- 14.4m tons of wheat, down 22% y/y
- 24.4m tons of corn, up 15% y/y
- 2.5m tons of barley, down 57% y/y
Tight Supply Drives US Urea, Potash Prices Higher
US fertilizer prices were mixed in late April, with tight supply and logistics issues pushing up urea and potash while ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices dropped. As expected, the Tampa ammonia price for May fell again, to $380 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight vs. April’s $435. New Orleans (NOLA) urea covered a wide range at $340-$450 a short ton (st) vs. last week’s $338-$390, with the high confirmed late in the week, sparking a $50/st increase in Corn Belt urea prices. NOLA potash firmed to $380-$400/st vs. last week’s $370-$380, but new business was limited due to tight barge supply. Inland potash also moved up $10-$40/st, depending on location. Phosphate prices climbed in some inland markets as demand stretched supply, while UAN dropped in the Southern Plains amid drought-related demand delays.
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