Global Ag News For May 20.2025

TOP HEADLINES

UK says single case of atypical BSE confirmed on farm

Britain said a single case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) had been confirmed on a farm in England and the animal had been humanely culled, adding that there was no food safety risk.

“This is proof that our surveillance system for detecting and containing this type of disease is working,” said Chief Veterinary Officer Christine Middlemiss in a statement from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Atypical BSE is a naturally occurring, non-contagious disease in cattle which occurs spontaneously. It is distinct from classical BSE which is linked to contaminated feed, the government added.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 11 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil down 0.11.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 13 1/4 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, up 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.40.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 24; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil up 0.36.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.4% in SRW, down 4.4% in HRW, down 0.3% in HRS; Corn is down 1.5%; Soybeans up 5.4%; Soymeal down 5.2%; Soyoil up 24.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 3 yuan; Soymeal down 14; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil up 70; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 28.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 28 ringgit (+0.72%) at 3910.

 

There were changes in registrations (-31 Corn). Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 80 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 19 were: SRW Wheat down 41 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,250, Corn up 6,103, Soybeans up 1,332, Soymeal up 6,637, Soyoil up 2,268.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 20 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: An active cyclone will bring high rainfall to the U.S. Corn Belt in the coming days, disrupting plantings temporarily but delivering much needed soil moisture
• SOUTH AMERICA: There is no rain in sight for crops in Central Brazil over the next two weeks
• SOUTH ASIA: Flooding rains are expected in Southwest India, with 10- day rainfall totals exceeding 200 mm above normal
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Soil moisture deficits across the northern Vietnam (Arabica coffee region) will be replenished as widespread rains arrive in late May

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Monday into Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday

North America’s adverse summer weather outlooks could threaten world corn production for 2025/26, even though Europe’s weather has improved

2025/26 CORN MARKET OUTLOOK – May 2025

2025/26 world corn production is expected to rise by 4.3% to 1265.8 million tons, a record high. Despite this, low beginning stocks and high consumption will global supply tight. Uncertainty depends on the summer weather.

The U.S. weather outlook for June-August indicates extensive hot and dry conditions across most of the North American crop regions, with agreement among various forecast models. This is especially challenging for crop production in regions of the central/northern Plains and western Midwest already experiencing significant soil moisture deficits.

The Southern E.U. and Ukraine have recently received decent precipitation and the wet conditions may continue through the end of May. This has largely mitigated earlier dryness in these regions and is to benefit corn production. However, Poland remains historically dry with no forecasted rainfall.

U.S. corn exports remain strong due to high supply, demand, and a weakened dollar, while Ukrainian and Brazilian exports are decreasing because of recent grain supply shortage.

Trump’s tariffs have not significantly impacted U.S. corn trade, and the trade tensions have eased temporarily.

Corn prices have generally declined due to a pause of reciprocal tariffs and improved weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and Brazil. Some fluctuations persist during U.S. trade negotiations with its trade partners worldwide.

 

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAMPAS AND BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn  harvesting
• Dry weather in Brazil

 

The player sheet for 5/19 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 621,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender for arrival in August to October, the kingdom’s main state wheat buying agency the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said. The purchase involved hard wheat with 12.5% protein content.
• SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 145,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal for delivery to the Philippines in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Oct. 1, 2024.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.719m Tons of Corn for Export, 218k of Soybeans

In week ending May 15, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 218k tons vs 440k the previous wk, 192k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,719k tons vs 1,300k the previous wk, 1,236k a yr ago
• Wheat: 424k tons vs 405k the previous wk, 229k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 15

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 15 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 66k tons of the 218k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

 

Argentina’s soy crop could face ‘significant losses’ after storms

Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop could suffer “significant losses” in northwestern Buenos Aires province due to the impact of recent heavy storms, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Monday, indicating it may be forced to trim its outlook.

The exchange currently estimates a soybean crop at a decent 50 million metric tons, but said in its report that the heavy rains could further delay the already slow harvest of the grain and cause damage to the plants.

In the northwestern Buenos Aires province 730,000 hectares of the soybean crop have yet to be harvested, the exchange said in a report detailing the impact of the storms.

“This region had already suffered the impact of rainfall in March,” the exchange said, adding that because of this threshing was some 15 percentage points behind the year before. “So the new rainfall could generate significant losses.”

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn.

Heavy rains dumped up to 400 millimeters of rain on fields and highways in recent days, and caused flooding in some cities in Buenos Aires province, where locals had to be evacuated from their homes.

Both the Buenos Aires and Rosario grains exchanges forecast more rain to hit the affected areas in the days ahead.

“New rains are expected for next weekend, especially on Saturday,” the Rosario exchange said in a report. “The time it takes to drain the excesses can influence the magnitude of the productive damage.”

 

Abiove Keeps Soybean Crushing Forecast For Season At 57.5 Million Tns

• BRAZIL OILSEED LOBBY ABIOVE RAISES 2024/25 SOYBEAN OUTPUT FORECAST TO 169.7 MILLION TNS FROM 169.6 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE SLIGHTLY CUTS SOYBEAN EXPORT FORECAST THIS SEASON TO 108.2 MILLION TNS FROM 108.5 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYBEAN CRUSHING FORECAST FOR SEASON AT 57.5 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYOIL PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 11.45 MILLION TNS FOR SEASON
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYOIL EXPORT FORECAST FOR SEASON TO 1.4 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYMEAL PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR SEASON AT 44.1 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYMEAL EXPORT FORECAST FOR SEASON AT 23.6 MILLION TNS

 

China April soy imports from Brazil fall 22.2% vs year earlier

China’s soybean imports from Brazil fell 22.2% in April from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday, as harvest delays, logistics issues and prolonged customs clearance disrupted shipments.

China imported 4.60 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, showed data from the General Administration of Customs.

April soybean arrivals from the U.S., China’s second-biggest supplier, fell 43.7% compared to the year-earlier period to 1.38 million tons, as buyers turned to Brazil for supplies, partly due to tariff uncertainty.

Overall soybean imports for April totalled6.08 million tons, the lowest since 2015.

For the January to April period, shipments from Brazil totalled 9.14 million tons, down 42.5% compared with the same period last year.

Total arrivals from the U.S. in the first four months of the year came to 12.95 million tons, up 35.2% on a year prior, the data also showed.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Both consumption and production may hit a record in 2025/26

First official data indicate that the 2025/26 global wheat crop is likely to hit records for both output and consumption. It is worth noting that, in the current season (2024/25), the consumption may surpass production, which tends to reduce ending stocks for the sixth year in a row.

The world production is projected at 808.5 million tons in 2025/26 (+1.1% against the previous), while the consumption may total 807.99 million tons (+0.5%) – data from the USDA.

As for Brazil, the USDA indicates that the 2025/26 area may reduce 8.5% compared to the previous season, at 2.8 million hectares. The production is likely to reach 8 million tons (+1.4%), and the consumption is expected to remain stable at 12.1 million tons.

Conab says that the area in Brazil may reach 2.7 million hectares, downing 2.6% and 11.7%, respectively, compared to the previous report (April) and to the season before (2024). The output is likely to amount 8.255 million tons, for a decrease of 2.56% in relation to the previous report, but upping 4.6% compared to the past crop.

Adding the production to initial stocks (1 million tons) and to imports (5.8 million tons), the domestic availability is estimated at 15.06 million tons, 1.1% more than in 2024. From this amount, Conab forecasts the domestic consumption at 11.84 million tons, exports at 2 million tons and ending stocks (by July/26) at 1.21 million tons.

Conab also indicates that sowing activities reached 18.4% of the area up to May 10.

PRICES – Prices dropped last week because of the planting progress in Brazil, data indicating both higher crop and productivity and good conditions of crops so far.

According to data from Cepea, between May 9 and 16, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved down 0.49% in Paraná, 0.13% in Santa Catarina and 1.6% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 2.35% in Paraná, 2.78% in São Paulo, 3.9% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.58% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations increased slightly 0.23% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.668 on May 16. As for wheat byproducts, prices of most types of wheat flour are stable.

 

U.S.-China Final Trade Deal Expected to Come Slowly — Market Talk

An overarching trade deal between the U.S. and China will take time to reach, says Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. Suderman says that while pausing the escalating tariff war between the two nations was a positive development for markets, reaching a final deal similar to the Phase One trade agreement reached in 2020 will take time. “This is far from over,” says Suderman. “The differences between China’s position and that of the Trump Administration are far apart yet.” Suderman adds that 13 face-to-face meetings were needed to reach the Phase One deal, and there’s little reason to believe that a new deal won’t take a similar amount of time. Commodity futures are mostly trading higher Monday.

 

Russian wheat prices flat for two weeks, weather yet to have a significant impact

Russian wheat export prices remained unchanged last week, with weather factors not yet having a significant impact on the crop, analysts said.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in June remained at the same level as a week earlier – $247 per metric ton, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy. The new crop wheat price was $227 per ton FOB, down from initial estimates in late April – early May of $235 per ton.

IKAR expects wheat exports in May to be 1.8-2.0 million tons.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content also unchanged – $247-249 per ton FOB.

Sovecon estimated May wheat exports at 1.8 million tons.

During the last week Algeria and Saudi Arabia bought wheat on state tenders, including Russian origin.

Last week, two regions of the Russia – Belgorod and Voronezh – declared a state of emergency due to frosts. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said crops had died on an area of just over 100,000 hectares and is estimated at only about 10% of last year’s damage, noting that it was mainly the Black Earth region that was affected.

“We have so far decided not to change our (crop) forecasts, as the previous ones already assumed such a situation,” Rylko said, noting that he sees the drought in the Rostov region and Krasnodar as a threat to the harvest, rather than the past frosts in the centre of the country.

Sovecon called the past frosts not critical for the winter wheat harvest, considering the weather as a whole favourable for the new crop.

 

Brazil rules out three of seven suspected bird flu cases

• Two suspected bird flu cases on commercial farms in two states still under investigation
• Bird flu outbreaks on commercial farms triggered trade bans
• Brazil is the world’s No. 1 chicken exporter

Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter, ruled out three of seven suspected cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, officials told a press conference on Monday, citing laboratory test results.

The government had been investigating seven cases after the first outbreak was confirmed on a commercial farm in Brazil last week, according to updated information on the agriculture ministry’s website.

Two of the cases still under investigation concern poultry raised on commercial farms and five involved backyard flocks in Brazil, which sold some $10 billion worth of chicken products globally last year, supplying more than 5 million metric tons.

All three negative tests related to samples taken from subsistence, non-commercial farms, officials said.

Under existing protocols signed between Brazil and trade partners including China, the European Union and South Korea, nationwide bans apply to poultry imports in case of a bird flu outbreak on a commercial farm.

Protocols with buyers Japan, UAE and Saudi Arabia provide for local trade restrictions.

Officials also told reporters the United States said it would continue buying eggs from Brazil. The U.S. boosted Brazilian egg imports after domestic prices hit a record high due to U.S. bird flu outbreaks.

One of the cases that remain under investigation was at a commercial farm in the state of Tocantins, and the other a commercial farm in Santa Catarina, according to the officials.

The first commercial-farm outbreak was confirmed last week in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul.

“People are on high alert,” agriculture minister Carlos Favaro told TV reporters outside his ministry on Monday, referring to the cases under investigation. “Farmers, whether on commercial or subsistence farms, report it when they see a sick animal, and it’s good that it is that way.”

Brazil would be considered free of bird flu if no new cases of the disease are confirmed in a 28-day window after the initial outbreak, Favaro said.

That would not mean that exports would be restored immediately, but Brazil would be in a position to negotiate with buyers to relax restrictions triggered by exiting health protocols.

Brazil’s chicken exports account for more than 35% of the global trade, making regional or nationwide trade embargoes painful not just for Brazilian farmers but also for major importers.

China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the main destinations for Brazil’s chicken exports.

In addition to last Friday’s confirmation of an outbreak of bird flu on a commercial farm in Montenegro, in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, authorities also confirmed a case in a black-necked swan in the town of Sapucaia do Sul, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) from Montenegro.

 

 

 

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