Written Commentary
TOP HEADLINES
Russia’s IKAR raises 2025 wheat production and export forecasts
Russia’s IKAR agriculture consultancy raised its 2025 wheat production forecast to 83.8 million metric tons from 82.5 million tons.
IKAR also raised its 2025 wheat export forecast to 41.3 million metric tons from 40 million tons.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.07.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 1/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/2; Soybeans down 13 1/4; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil down 0.76.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 3/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 19 1/4; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil down 0.31.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.8% in SRW, down 7.0% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 2.6%; Soybeans up 4.0%; Soymeal down 6.3%; Soyoil up 21.8%.
Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal down 24; Soyoil down 46; Palm oil down 122; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 31.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 31 ringgit (-0.81%) at 3796.
There were changes in registrations (-34 SRW Wheat, -118 Soybeans, -10 Soymeal). Registration total: 425 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 146 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 966 Soyoil; 783 Soymeal; 681 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 5 were: SRW Wheat up 1,485 contracts, HRW Wheat up 449, Corn up 12,287, Soybeans down 1,015, Soymeal up 7,845, Soyoil up 4,444.
DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 06 MAY 2025
- NORTH AMERICA: Dry conditions over the next 10 days across the U.S. Corn Belt will support rapid plantings
- SOUTH AMERICA: Recent rains in Central Brazil could have been the last chance for soil moisture improvement, with no rain expected until at least May 20th
- EAST ASIA: Increasingly warm conditions across the North China Plain in mid-May will favor spring crop sowings
- SOUTH ASIA: Rains expected this week in Western India may locally hinder wheat harvest but should not be a major concern at this stage of the season
Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.
Midwest West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday.
Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.
Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.
Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
The player sheet for 5/5 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 23,000 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late last week without issuing an international tender
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 68,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
- RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed last month with no purchase made.
TODAY
USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Crop 40% Planted, Soybeans 30% Planted
Highlights from the report:
- Corn planted 40% vs 24% last week, and 35% a year ago
- Corn emerged 11% vs 5% last week, and 11% a year ago
- Soybeans planted 30% vs 18% last week, and 24% a year ago
- Winter wheat 51% G/E vs 49% last week, and 50% a year ago
- Spring wheat planted 44% vs 30% last week, and 45% a year ago
- Cotton planted 21% vs 15% last week, and 23% a year ago
- Sorghum planted 23% vs 21% last week, and 22% a year ago
US Inspected 1.608m Tons of Corn for Export, 324k of Soybeans
In week ending May 1, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Wheat: 310k tons vs 649k the previous wk, 339k a yr ago
- Soybeans: 324k tons vs 458k the previous wk, 358k a yr ago
- Corn: 1,608k tons vs 1,666k the previous wk, 1,299k a yr ago
US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 1
Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 1 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.
- Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 82k tons of the 324k total inspected
- Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat
Parana River Navigation Restricted With 2 Vessels Aground: Nabsa
Karlino ran aground on Sunday night after leaving a port in Argentina’s Rosario export hub with a crop cargo, shipping agency Nabsa said in a note to clients.
- Karlino is partially obstructing the Parana’s navigation channel
- Pacific Seagull still hasn’t refloated since running aground on May 1 after loading a soy cargo in Rosario
- It is also partially obstructing the channel
- Authorities have reduced the draft for navigation
Céleres Raises Forecast for Brazil’s Corn Crop in 2024-25 Season
Outlook for total corn crop increased to 135.4m tons, from 134.6m tons in April, Céleres said in a statement.
- That compares with 129.2m tons of corn in 2023-24 marketing year
- Estimate for winter corn, Brazil’s largest corn to be harvested starting on June, raised to 107.2m tons, from 105.8m tons a month ago
- Farmers’ high operational capacity to mitigate the initial planting delay, as well as favorable weather conditions until the end of April in important producing areas, have raised productivity expectations, Céleres said
- Demand coming from corn ethanol mills expected to help to sustain domestic prices and bring positive profit margins to farmers
WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices move up in April; monthly averages are the highest of this year
Wheat values moved up in Brazil in April, boosted by the limited supply, which is seasonally expected. Monthly price averages were the highest of this year. On the other hand, the liquidity was low during the month, with producers focused on crop activities and purchasers remained away from closing trades, enough supplied.
Data from Cepea indicate that, in April, the monthly average of wheat prices in Rio Grande do Sul was BRL 1,469.93 per ton, the highest value since September 2024, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,478.46/ton, the highest since November 2024. In Paraná, prices averaged BRL 1.564.46/ton, the highest since October 2024. As for São Paulo, the average was BRL 1.669.45/ton, the highest value since September 2024.
In the last week of April, wheat quotations decreased slightly. Between April 25 and May 2, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 1.46% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.79% in Santa Catarina and remained stable in Paraná (-0,06%). In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values downed 0.57% in Paraná, 0.49% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.3% in Santa Catarina; in São Paulo, prices kept almost unchanged (+0.04%). Dollar quotations dropped 0.49% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.655 on May 2.
Secex data indicate that imports totaled 415.92 thousand tons up to the fourth week of April, against 454.52 thousand tons in April 2024. As for exports, the volume is at 120.7 thousand tons, against 362.62 thousand tons in the same period last year.
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