Global Ag News for May 9.24

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil losing corn crown but remains large supplier, Cargill says

Brazil will remain a competitive corn supplier in global markets thanks to yet another year of abundant production, Paulo Sousa, chief executive of grain trader Cargill in the country, said on Wednesday during an industry event.

However, the country will not maintain its position as the world’s largest exporter, which it won last year after briefly overtaking the United States, he said.

Brazil is currently cultivating the “safrinha” corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas and represents 70%-80% of national output, depending on the year.

Sousa said Brazil’s safrinha corn was looking very good, naming several large Brazilian growing regions where the crop was developing well.

Brazil’s total corn production will fall by nearly 21 million tons this season, though it is still expected to be large compared with what other countries are capable of producing, according to data from national crop agency Conab.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 10 3/4 in SRW, up 12 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 22 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 16 3/4; Soymeal up $7.90; Soyoil up 0.61.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 41 1/2 in SRW, up 25 1/2 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14; Soybeans up 68 3/4; Soymeal up $28.20; Soyoil up 0.68.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.9% in SRW, up 2.5% in HRW, down 2.1% in HRS; Corn is down 5.7%; Soybeans down 5.8%; Soymeal down 2.9%; Soyoil down 9.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans down 33 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil down 76; Palm oil down 98; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 40. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 40 ringgit (-1.03%) at 3829.

There were changes in registrations (345 Corn). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 9 Oats; 795 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 226 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 8 were: SRW Wheat up 2,588 contracts, HRW Wheat up 639, Corn up 7,691, Soybeans down 5,785, Soymeal up 5,410, Soyoil up 482.

Northern Plains: A system that has settled in the region has brought rainfall to most of the region through Wednesday, and has included some heavy amounts for the driest areas in eastern Montana. The rain will keep any fieldwork slow. Additional fronts will follow afterward through next week, but contain fewer showers as planting windows will open back up again. Temperatures will waffle around as these fronts come and go.

Central/Southern Plains:  Some isolated showers will pop up for the rest of the week, but many areas will remain dry, which will help open up some planting windows for areas that have had some heavy rain lately. Wheat conditions in the southwest still are not great, even after some decent rainfall over the weekend. But the southern storm track may be more active starting this weekend that continues through next week, which may promote some better rainfall chances there.

Midwest: Recent rainfall has been too heavy in a lot of areas, slowing down or halting planting. Another system goes through for Wednesday and Thursday that may have severe weather as well. It will also bring some colder air into the region, but frosts are not expected. Temperatures will likely waffle a bit through next week as the pattern remains active with fronts and systems. However, these systems are less likely to contain widespread heavy rain as they come from the northwest.

Delta: A couple of fronts moving through this week are bringing more chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for severe weather. Another will go through early next week as the pattern remains active across the region. The active weather will ensure good soil moisture for the next week, but may be too wet in some areas for planting. The region continues to see good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions, however.

Brazil: Recent heavy rain over Rio Grande do Sul has produced catastrophic flooding over the last week. The front responsible for the incredible rain is shifting back north again on Wednesday and likely waffle around the state yet again into next week. Flooding, mudslides and crop damage are all putting a damper on what was a pretty good crop season and making for massive delays in winter wheat planting. Safrinha corn in the central will continue to be very dry and hot as well. Southern corn areas may catch some of the rain from the front later next week.

Argentina: A front that shifted back south into Argentina will be pushed back north into Paraguay and Brazil on Wednesday. Colder and drier conditions will follow that. That may be able to increase corn and soybean harvest, but may mean widespread frosts for any immature crops for several days going into next week. The drier pattern lasts through at least next week.

The player sheet for 5/8 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 7,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said it bought 420,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 360,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat, GASC said.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Aug. 31 and arrive in Japan by Oct. 31, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on May 15.

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 2.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,100k tons, with avg of 815k
• Soybean est. range 250k – 800k tons, with avg of 515k

BrasilAgro Sees 2023/24 Grain Output -27% y/y at 323,669 Tons

BrasilAgro reports its estimates of agricultural operations for the 2023/24 harvest year, according to filing.

• Estimated grain and cotton production: 323,669 tons, compared to 446,028 initially estimated and 354,088 tons in the 2022/23 harvest
  • Soybean: 202,793 tons
  • Corn harvest: 19,601 tons
  • Corn 2nd crop: 61,180 tons
  • Beans harvest: 8,264 tons
  • Beans 2nd crop: 5,023 tons
  • Cotton: 14,069 tons
  • Cotton 2nd crop: 12,740 tons
• BrasilAgro says there was “a significant impact comp[ared to the initial estimates” and cites the decrease in planted area due to the high volatility in corn prices, “resulting in a change in product mix and a decrease in corn planted area,” and the weather conditions during the ideal planting window, “leading to areas of corn and soybean not being planted in Bahia and Paraguay”

Brazil Sees Impact of Southern Rains on Soybean Still Uncertain

The impact on Brazilian soybeans is still uncertain, given that the majority of the crop had already been harvested, said the director of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies at the Development Ministry, Herlon Brandao, this Wednesday at a press conference.

• Impact on the rest of the soybean harvest is yet to be assessed
• “Rio Grande do Sul is an important state for Brazilian foreign trade,” he said
  • Soy was the main product exported by Rio Grande do Sul in 2023, corresponding to the fourth largest exporting state
• The impacts of the rains in Rio Grande do Sul will be seen in the result of the trade balance in May

Brazil losing corn crown but remains large supplier, Cargill says

Brazil will remain a competitive corn supplier in global markets thanks to yet another year of abundant production, Paulo Sousa, chief executive of grain trader Cargill in the country, said on Wednesday during an industry event.

However, the country will not maintain its position as the world’s largest exporter, which it won last year after briefly overtaking the United States, he said.

Brazil is currently cultivating the “safrinha” corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas and represents 70%-80% of national output, depending on the year.

Sousa said Brazil’s safrinha corn was looking very good, naming several large Brazilian growing regions where the crop was developing well.

Brazil’s total corn production will fall by nearly 21 million tons this season, though it is still expected to be large compared with what other countries are capable of producing, according to data from national crop agency Conab.

Argentina Corn Harvest Forecast Cut to 47.5M Tons: Rosario

Argentina’s 2023/2024 corn harvest forecast was cut to 47.5m tons, down from the March estimate of 50.5m tons, due to damage from the spiroplasma bacteria that is being spread by leafhoppers, the Rosario Board of Trade said in its April report published Wednesday.

• The cut in the harvest estimate comes despite the fact that the 2023/2024 corn planting season marks a record of planted hectares with almost 8.9m
  • “The leafhopper has robbed Argentina of a little more than 20% of its corn production,” the board said
• With a 25% of corn harvest progress, the work is 7% behind compared to the same period the year before
• Soybean harvest estimate kept at 50m tons
• The soybean harvest continues to face difficulties due to weather conditions, with progress of 44%

China April Agricultural Trade Data: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean Imports 8.572m Tons
  • Soybean imports YTD fell 2.9% y/y to 27.148m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in April 494,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 25.5% y/y to 2.303m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in April 544,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 12.6% y/y to 2.224m tons
• Fertilizer exports in April 2.101m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD fell 4.2% y/y to 7.056m tons

Three Russian grain regions declare emergency over cold weather, frost damage

Three of Russia’s key grain-growing areas declared a state of emergency on Wednesday, citing May frosts that have caused severe damage to crops and will reduce this year’s harvest.

The central regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov all imposed emergency measures.

“The frosts that hit in early May led to catastrophic consequences,” Igor Artamonov, the governor of the Lipetsk region, said on the Telegram messaging app before signing the emergency decree.

“We must understand that this year’s harvest will be much smaller than the previous one.”

In neighbouring Voronezh, the regional agriculture ministry wrote on Telegram: “According to preliminary data, the area of dead or severely damaged crops has exceeded 265,000 hectares,” the regional agriculture ministry said on Telegram.

In Tambov, further east, Governor Maksim Yegorov signed a similar order, with his administration citing “early May frosts that have killed crops and damaged perennial plantings”.

All three regions are part of Russia’s fertile Black Earth region. Russia is one of the world’s top grain producers and exporters.

Brazil April Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Corn exports fell 86% y/y
• Beef exports rose 89% y/y

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.21 Million Tns In May – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.21 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 14.43 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.34 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 2.28 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 548,480 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 493,526 TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 24,150 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 45,695 TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• EXPORTERS MAY HAVE TO REDIRECT GRAIN EXPORTS TO AVOID RIO GRANDE PORT, WHICH WAS AFFECTED BY FLOODS

China Approves Gene-Edited Grain Crops in Food Security Push

The government granted a biosafety certificate valid for five years, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement late Wednesday. This is just one of several steps before the seeds can be planted. The gene-edited varieties China cleared aim to improve corn yields and make wheat more disease-resistant.

China, which historically has been hesitant to use new seed technologies, has recently begun easing restrictions as it seeks to boost domestic harvests. The government approved a gene-edited soybean crop last year, the first time the technology was approved there.

“This is a substantial step and could raise production significantly, as gene-editing crops have really great potential,” said Gengchen Han, Chairman of US-listed Origin Agritech, an agricultural biotechnology company specializing in crop seed breeding and genetic improvement. Yields for gene-edited corn, for example, can rise by as much as 50%, according to Han.

 Brazil Fertilizer Prices Steady to Soft as Soybean Demand Builds

Fertilizer prices were stable to soft in Brazil, with nitrogen demand at a seasonal lull and sellers switching to potash and phosphates for soybeans. Urea and ammonium sulfate were down slightly, while phosphates and potash were unchanged from a week ago.

 

 

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