Global Ag News for Nov 13.23

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA October US soybean crush seen at record 187.237 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely reached an all-time monthly high in October, while soyoil stocks were estimated to have risen for the first time in six months, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 187.237 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.

If realized, the October crush would be up 13.2% from September’s crush of 165.456 million bushels and up 1.5% from the October 2022 crush of 184.464 million bushels. It would also be the largest crush on record for any month, eclipsing the prior record of 186.438 million bushels set in December 2021.

The October crush is typically one of the largest of the year as seasonal maintenance downtime at processing plants wraps up and as crushers receive newly harvested soybeans.

Estimates for the October 2023 crush ranged from 180 million to 193.235 million bushels, with a median of 187.400 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Wednesday. NOPA issues crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day.

Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of Oct. 31 were forecast at 1.188 billion pounds, based on estimates from seven analysts. If realized, it would up 7.3% from the 1.108 billion pounds held by NOPA members at the end of September, which was the smallest stockpile since December 2014.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.080 billion to 1.300 billion pounds, with a median of 1.189 billion pounds.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $4.60; Soyoil up 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 15 3/4; Soybeans up 48 1/2; Soymeal up $24.30; Soyoil up 1.62.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 18 1/2 in SRW, up 14 in HRW, up 23 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 87; Soymeal up $42.20; Soyoil up 1.36.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 27.4% in SRW, down 27.7% in HRW, down 21.6% in HRS; Corn is down 29.4%; Soybeans down 8.1%; Soymeal down 0.2%; Soyoil down 17.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans up 44 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 146; Palm oil up 176; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 75. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 75 ringgit (+1.92%) at 3979.

There were changes in registrations (20 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,950 SRW Wheat contracts; 607 Oats; 4 Corn; 671 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 14 were: SRW Wheat down 7,232 contracts, HRW Wheat up 671, Corn down 2,219, Soybeans up 7,716, Soymeal up 2,522, Soyoil down 5,552.

Northern Plains: Warmer and drier conditions continue for most of the week, favoring the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A system is likely to track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas.

Central/Southern Plains: Most areas will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region later this week. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat.

Midwest: Warm temperatures and dry conditions for most of the week should lead to good conditions for the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A front moving through late week could bring some rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region.

Brazil: Heavy rain continues over southern areas while central areas have been very dry with temperatures near or above 100F. The same pattern continues this week, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the Central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern may start to change this weekend or early next week as a system in the south shifts into central states.

Argentina: Scattered showers will move through this week and weekend, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country’s growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas are the furthest behind in rainfall, but most areas have seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

The player sheet for Nov. 14 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 101,745 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• DURUM WHEAT SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an international tender seeking the same volume on Tuesday.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is looking to buy a total of 104,677 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday, Nov. 16.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines has issued a tender to purchase around 30,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said that it will seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley, to be loaded by Jan. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 29, via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Nov. 15.

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Nov. 10 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than the Oct. 27 amount at 1.056m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 21.353m bbl vs 21.012m two weeks ago

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 21% in Season Through Nov. 12

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 fell to 10.8 million tons as of Nov. 12, compared with 13.7m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco, at 1.74m tons; Nigeria, 1.19m tons; and Algeria, with 937k tons
• Barley exports are at 2.62m tons, down 6% y/y
• Corn imports are at 6.29m tons, down 42% y/y

Ukraine’s Winter-Grain Sowing Advances 2.5% From Last Year

Ukrainian farmers planted winter grains across 4.51m hectares as of Nov. 14, the country’s Agriculture Ministry says on website.

• The total includes:
  • 3.97m hectares of wheat, up 7.3% y/y
  • 469,000 hectares of barley, down 22% y/y

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Drop 30% Y/y in Season to Nov. 15

Ukraine’s grain exports in the marketing year that started July 1 stand at 10.97m tons, versus 15.6m tons at a similar time a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• The total includes:
  • 5.2m tons of wheat, down 12% y/y
  • 749k tons of barley, down 41% y/y
  • 4.9m tons of corn, down 41% y/y

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.106 Million Tns In November Versus 1.918 Million Tns In Same Month A Year Ago- Anec

• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.323 MILLION (ADDS DROPPED WORD ‘MILLION’) TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 5.467 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.106 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 1.918 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.406 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 1.349 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

Amazon Drought Hits River Grain Shipments Harder Than Expected

• Hidrovias do Brasil revised down its guidance for the year
• Poor Amazon rains cause grains exports to be rerouted to south

A severe drought in the Amazon region is disrupting grain shipments more than anticipated, according to one of Brazil’s top barge operators.

Unable to move its barges filled with products like corn and soybeans, Hidrovias do Brasil SA is forecasting lower results for this year than previously predicted, company executives said on an earnings call Tuesday.

“The situation escalated very abruptly,” Chief Executive Officer Fabio Abreu Schettino said.

The company operates along a route known as the Northern Arc, an array of ports along the Amazon and northeastern Atlantic coast that transport crops from farms in central Brazil. According to the company’s own measurements at one of the rivers in the region, water levels are about 40% lower than they were in the same period last year.

The drought reduces the amount of cargo that can be shipped, and forces volumes to be split into smaller portions so barges can make it through critical points where rivers are at their lowest. Due to such difficulties and the expectation of maintenance downtime, Hidrovias cut its guidance.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will reach no more than 770 million reais ($158 million) this year, the company said in a filing. That’s nearly 15% lower than previous market expectations, according to a report by XP Investimentos. The company will incur high costs from inefficient operations, analysts led by Pedro Bueno wrote in the report.

While Hidrovias expects water levels to recover in the coming months, the Amazon dryness already has had consequences across Brazil’s entire logistics system. That’s because grain exports are getting rerouted to crowded ports in the southeast. As farmers harvest bumper crops of grains and a record sugar crop, ships are waiting as much as 40 days to load sugar at Brazil’s largest port.

ADM, Marathon Open Soy Crushing Plant on Green Diesel Push

• Facility can produce 75 million gallons of green diesel a year
• Companies tap into growing demand for renewable fuels in US

North Dakota’s first fully dedicated soybean crushing facility has begun operations as co-owners Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Marathon Petroleum Corp. seek to take advantage of booming demand for renewable fuels in the US.

Joint venture Green Bison Soy Processing will source and process local soybean supplies, with the resulting oil supplied exclusively to Marathon as a feedstock for the production of green diesel. The plant has been receiving the oilseed since September and is in the commissioning and startup phase of crushing it into meal and oil, ADM and Marathon said in a joint statement.

Renewable diesel is chemically equivalent to petroleum-based fuel and often touted as one of the best ways to cut emissions. Companies are racing to build more capacity to process soy, a critical component for expanding green fuel supplies.

The $350 million facility has capacity to produce enough feedstock for roughly 75 million gallons of renewable green diesel per year.

KAZAKHSTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION DOWN AMID HEAVY RAINS AND DELEYED HARVEST. – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2023/24 KAZAKHSTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION: 13.0 [12.4-13.7]MILLION TONS, DOWN 5.6 % FROM LAST UPDATE

Heavy rains and delayed harvest reduced Kazakhstan wheat production to 13.0 million tons with an average yield of 1.05 tons per hectare (ha), down 5.6 % from previous update. According to the recent reports by the Ministry of Agriculture in Kazakhstan, farmers are at the ending stage of harvest with 11.4 million tons of wheat with collected. Average harvest yield is 8.6 tons per hectare (ha).

Due to prolonged heavy rains in September and October soil moisture levels have increased, same as crop vegetation densities (NDVIs). Overall results have reached above long-time medians across Kazakhstan. In recent two weeks temperatures, among the key wheat producing regions oscillated (5-6 °C) above normal with increased precipitation. Harvesting weather conditions over past weeks were overall unfavorable due to above average precipitation across most of the country, particularly heavy rains in northern Oblasts. Completion of the harvest is expected by the end of next week.

Paraguay Trade Group Capeco Says Soybean Exports Close to Done

Paraguay has only residual amounts of soybeans from this year’s harvests available for export in the final two months of 2023, grain and oilseed export association Capeco said in a statement.

• Soybean exports in the Jan-Oct period more than doubled y/y to 5.7 million metric tons
  • Argentina received 89% of the shipments, followed by Brazil with 3%, Russia 2% and rest going to other markets such as South Korea
• Cargill was the top exporter with a 16% market share, followed by Viterra with 14% and ADM with 9%, among others

Ukraine Starts Grain Insurance Program Days After Missile Attack

Ukraine is starting an insurance program with broker Marsh McLennan and Lloyd’s of London to provide cover for grain vessels sailing from Ukraine’s deep-sea ports, just days after a ship was hit by a Russian missile.

The country is launching a $50 million program for insuring ships against military risks, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister and economy minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in a Facebook post.

The program could make it easier for shipowners to get cover to transport goods by sea from Ukraine, a major agricultural exporter that’s reliant on foreign exchange revenues from food exports. While ships are still sailing to its ports through the Black Sea, some owners are increasingly wary of using it after the missile strike, which claimed the life of the first merchant sailor since Moscow’s invasion.

Kyiv set up the new temporary route from its ports after Russia exited a safe corridor deal backed by the United Nations and Turkey in July. Marsh previously had a different program in place but that was suspended after Russia’s exit.

Russia has threatened to treat any ships sailing to Ukraine as potentially carrying weapons. Still, a steady stream of ships has been transporting grain and metals since September.

Insurance broker Miller and Clearwater Dynamics said in September that together with Ukrainian authorities, it is offering “full war risks insurance coverage” for vessels operating in the Black Sea.

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 6%

October placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 2.21m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• Estimates range from +1% to +8.1% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Nov. 1 seen rising by 2% y/y to 11.97m head
• Marketings seen falling 1.9% y/y

Graincorp, IFM in MOU on Aviation Renewable Fuels Initiative

IFM Investors signs MOU with Australian agribusiness and processing company GrainCorp to explore the use of agricultural feedstocks to produce sustainable aviation fuel, according to a statement.

Will conduct feasibility studies on sustainable fuel production in Australia, through long-term domestic feedstock supply including waste and residues, crop-based oils, and bio-organics

 

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