Global Ag News For Nov 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Egypt targets 5 million tons of local wheat next year, seeking self-sufficiency

Egypt has targeted procurement of five million metric tons of local wheat next season as it moves away from being one of the world’s top wheat importers to self-sufficiency, the supply ministry said on Sunday.

Egypt typically imports about 10 million tons a year, with the state buyer obtaining roughly half of that for the country’s bread subsidy programme on which 70 million people rely.

In the first half of this year, however, imports were a quarter less than the same period last year, according to shipping and trading data reviewed by Reuters.

The government’s share of those imports dropped by more than half to about 1.6 million tons, reflecting slower procurement since the state buyer changed from the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) to the military-linked Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development (Mostakbal Misr).

While the supply ministry said that it procured more than 4 million tons of wheat during the domestic harvest, data seen by Reuters shows that the government bought about 3.9 million tons, slightly below its announced target of between 4 million and 5 million tons in the season from mid-April to mid-August.

Reserves of strategic commodities are within safe buffers and as high as last year or higher in some commodities, the supply ministry added without providing more data.

In November 2024, Egypt’s wheat stocks covered five months of consumption, below the six-month threshold Egypt hopes to maintain.

Last week Reuters reported that the Future of Egypt, which took over purchasing in December, had ditched the formal tenders of GASC in favour of informal negotiations, spurring mounting trade tensions and a drop in Egypt’s wheat imports.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil up 0.16.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $5.90; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 18 3/4; Soymeal up $4.10; Soyoil up 1.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.6% in SRW, down 7.2% in HRW, down 4.6% in HRS; Corn is down 5.8%; Soybeans up 13.6%; Soymeal up 5.9%; Soyoil up 26.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 30; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil up 10; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 12.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 12 ringgit (+0.29%) at 4140.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 450 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 14 were: SRW Wheat down 8,529 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,973, Corn up 10,323, Soybeans up 14,755, Soymeal down 3,952, Soyoil up 4,515.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 17 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather will persist across the U.S. over the next 10 days. Moderate to heavy wet spells are expected across the central U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Central Europe will experience cool weather and wet spells during the 15-day outlook.
• ASIA: Asia will be mostly near-normal to cool over the next 15 days, with mixed patterns in north/central China. Wet spells are restricted to Vietnam/Thailand and southern India during the next 15-day period.
• TROPICS: There are currently no active tropical cyclone warnings for tropical regions.

 

Northern Plains: A few showers moved through over the weekend with some cooler temperatures. Some showers will be possible through Wednesday with a couple systems passing nearby. The same goes for a couple of systems this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will likely take a massive dive around Thanksgiving or just after as a big cold pattern is on the horizon.

Central/Southern Plains: It was quiet, but hot over the weekend. A system will move into the region on Monday but with limited showers, mostly across the north. A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall and a slight chance for snow on Friday as the system leaves. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Generally warm and breezy conditions will fill in over the weekend going into early next week. A big change may come on or just after Thanksgiving with a bigger system and a massive cold burst.

Midwest: A system brought a few showers this weekend, but also brought a drop in temperature after a few locations in the west hit record highs on Friday. A system will bring through scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation. The rain will improve soil moisture for winter wheat and could reduce some of the drought in the region.

Delta: Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter however.

Brazil: A front moved into the south this weekend and is bringing a wave of heavy rainfall north over the next couple of days. The front will stall out in the north midweek and showers will slowly build there and to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

Argentina: A front moved through with widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, which has continued to keep soil moisture high for early this growing season. However, this may be the last front that produces this type of widespread precipitation for a while. A front will move through later this week, but is expected to have only patchy showers. The same goes for another next week. Soil conditions are currently favorable, but we may start to see those slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

Europe: Scattered showers moved through much of the continent over the weekend and several waves of showers will continue that trend this week. Temperatures are falling and some of these showers will fall as snow. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

Black Sea: A couple of systems will move through this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Scattered showers went through northeastern areas over the weekend, but southeastern areas saw very little rainfall. Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers will favor western areas this week while eastern areas are forecast to be much drier. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

China: Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through the end of November, helpful across the north but detrimental for the south.

 

The player sheet for 11/14 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 27,500 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, SOYMEAL PURCHASE: A group of importers in Thailand this week purchased about 74,000 metric tons of soybeans and 63,000 tons of soymeal in an international tender
• CORN & SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice was estimated at $354.19 a ton CIF liner out
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US CROP EXPORTS: 6.6 Million Tons of Flash Sales During Shutdown

The US Department of Agriculture on Friday announced export daily sales, known as ‘flash’ sales, that occurred over the government shutdown period, on its website:

• In total, 6.6m tons of flash sales were made during the period
  • 4.9m tons of corn, including a corn sale to Mexico of over a million tons
  • 1.3m tons of soybeans, including 332k to China

 

CROP SURVEY: US October Soybean Crush Seen at 206.1M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to seven analysts conducted by Bloomberg News Nov. 12 to Nov. 13.

• Soybean crush seen 3.1% higher vs October of last year, and an increase of 4.1% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.233b lbs vs 1.069b a year earlier

 

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 10% for December

The gazetted price for crude palm oil was set at 4,206.38 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 10%, according to a circular from the Malaysian customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• The tax rate was 10% in November as well
• NOTE: The export-duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in a range of 2,250-2,400 ringgit/ton, to a maximum rate of 10%, which is incurred when prices are above 4,050 ringgit/ton

 

India Set to Resume Wheat Product Exports After Three Years

India is considering resuming exports of wheat products after more than three years of restrictions, supported by ample local supplies and expectations of a strong crop, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution has proposed allowing shipments of products such as wheat flour and semolina, said the people, who asked not be identified as the discussions are private. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is likely to take the necessary action and issue an order to initially allow exports of 1 million tons, they said.

The two ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

As the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India’s return to the export market could improve global supply and benefit import-dependent countries, especially in Asia, Africa and the Middle East by lowering prices.

Expectations of a bumper harvest following the best monsoon season in five years have strengthened the case for lifting curbs, aligning with domestic industry calls to tap into international markets.

India’s consideration to restart shipments, which were curbed in 2022, comes at a time when it’s in trade talks with the US, following a 50% tariff slapped by the Trump administration. The two sides are trying to ease trade tensions, with Washington pushing India to open up its agricultural sector.

President Donald Trump said this week he might cut tariffs on Indian goods “at some point,” and added that the US was “pretty close” to finalizing a trade deal with New Delhi.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Firm demand for soybean meal and price rises abroad sustain grain values in BR

The firm demand for soybean meal continues to sustain quotations of soybeans in the domestic market. However, soy trades are moving at a slow pace, due to the gap between prices offered by purchasers and asked by sellers.

Producers are away from closing deals, focused on price rises abroad. Many consumers, in turn, are cautious, focused on high remaining stocks from the 2024/25 season, on the expectation of record crop in 2025/26, on the devaluation of dollar against Real and on the decrease of export premiums in Brazil.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) moved up 0.5% from November 6-13, closing at BRL 139.99 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 13. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 0.5% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 134.631per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices rose 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and remained stable in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal increased 2.2% comparing November 6 and 13. The Brazilian value of soy oil closed at BRL 7,215.76 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Nov. 13, downing 0.2% from Nov. 6-13.

Conab has released data this week indicating that the soybean area is likely to reach 49.06 million hectares, for a decrease of 0.2% compared to data from the first projection – from this amount, 58.4% of the area had been planted up to Nov. 8.

The soy production is forecast at the record of 177.60 million tons, 3.6% more than in 2024/25. Exports are likely to hit 112.11 million tons, a new record, and 5.11% above the 106.66 million tons estimated for the current season (from January to December 2025).

As for soybean meal, Conab estimates the output at 45.73 million tons in 2025/26, 0.43% below the last report, but 1.3% more than in 2024/25. Concerning soy oil, data from Conab indicate production at the record of 1.19 million tons in 2025/26, 1.8% above that verified in the previous season.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Liquidity is low, but prices are firm

Corn prices are low in regions of the Central-West, but are moving up and/or are firm in other regions surveyed by Cepea.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, between November 6 and 13, corn values remained stable in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and rose 0.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices upped 0.9% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 67.46 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 13. Sellers are away from closing trades in the spot market. In the partial of November, the Index has increased 2%, averaging BRL 67.04/bag, the highest in this semester.

Liquidity is low, especially because many sellers are away from closing deals in the spot market. Consumers, in turn, are willing to trade, but only small volumes.

On one hand, increases of prices abroad and the intensification of Brazilian exports sustain prices in the domestic market. On the other, the dollar devaluation, the good development of first corn crop and the high domestic surplus may result in price drops.

In the first five producing days of November, Brazil shipped 1.14 million tons, with a daily average of 228.1 thousand tons. In case this pace continues up to the end of November, the volume exported this month may reach 4.33 million tons, but still below the 4.72 million tons observed one year ago.

In spite of dollar devaluation against Real, prices at ports continue firm. Data from Cepea indicate that the average in Paranaguá (PR) increased 0.5% from Nov. 6-13, but downed 0.2% at the port of Santos (SP).

Data from Conab released on Nov. 13 indicate that the area in first corn crop is expected to increase 7.1% in Brazil, to 4.04 million hectares. The productivity is likely to decrease 3.1% in relation to the crop before, at 6.4 tons per hectare. As a result, the production may total 25.9 million tons, 3.7% above that verified in the season before.

The area may increase in the second crop, while the productivity is likely to drop, which would result in a supply of 110.5 million tons, 2.5% less than in 2025. As for the third crop, production is expected at 2.5 million tons, downing 13.1% in relation to the previous season – Conab data.

As a whole, the national production is estimated by Conab at 138.4 million tons in 2026, for a decrease of 1.6% compared to 2025. Considering initial stocks and imports, the domestic availability is likely to reach the record of 154.7 million tons, 6.9% more than in the crop before.

 

Meatpacker JBS sees US cattle shortage lasting through 2026

Executives at JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, said U.S. beef margins will likely be tighter in the fourth quarter compared with the previous one due to a persistent shortage of cattle in the U.S., where it derives most of its revenue.

Speaking with analysts after reporting a third-quarter profit fall partly related to negative U.S. beef margins, executives said 2026 will still be a challenging year from the cattle supply perspective in the U.S., with gradual improvements likely in 2027.

 

Trump says China on track to buy US soybeans before spring

President Donald Trump said that China would buy U.S. soybeans and other farm products and that Washington and Beijing had talks on the subject on Friday.

Trump said he expected the purchases were already underway and would take place before the spring. He did not say who from the governments had been engaged in the talks.

 

Trump cuts tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount

• Tariff rollback includes beef, tomatoes, bananas amid inflation concerns
• Trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador to eliminate tariffs
• Democrats criticize Trump for inflation linked to tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on dozens of food products, including such staples as beef, tomatoes and bananas, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries.

The new exemptions – which take effect retroactively at midnight on Thursday – mark a sharp reversal for Trump, who has long insisted that the sweeping import duties he imposed earlier this yearare not fueling inflation. Democrats have won a string of victories in state and local elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, where affordability was a key topic.

The Trump administration announced framework trade deals on Thursday that, once finalized, will eliminate tariffs on certain foods and other imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador, with U.S. officials eyeing additional agreements before year’s end.

Friday’s list includes products U.S. consumers routinely purchase to feed their families at home, many of which have seen double-digit year-over-year price increases.

Ground beef, as of the latest available data for September, was nearly 13% more expensive, according to Consumer Price Index data, and steaks cost almost 17% more than a year ago. Increases for both were the largest in more than three years, dating back to when inflation was nearing its peak under Trump’s predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.

Banana prices were about 7% higher, while tomatoes were 1% higher. Overall costs for food consumed at home were up 2.7% in September.

Trump has upended the global trading system by imposing a 10% base tariff on imports from every country, plus additional specific duties that vary from state to state.

Trump has focused squarely on the issue of affordability in recent weeks, while insisting that any higher costs were triggered by policies enacted by Biden, and not his own tariff policies.

Consumers have remained frustrated over high grocery prices, which economists say have been fueled in part by import tariffs and could rise further next year as companies start passing on the full brunt of the import duties.

The top Democrat on the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, Richard Neal, said the Trump administration was “putting out a fire that they started and claiming it as progress.”

“The Trump Administration is finally admitting publicly what we’ve all known from the start: Trump’s Trade War is hiking costs on people,” Neal said in a statement. “Since implementing these tariffs, inflation has increased and manufacturing has contracted month after month.”

 

Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumes oil loadings after Ukrainian attack

• Novorossiysk resumes loadings after two-day suspension
• Ukraine struck Novorossiysk in missile and drone attack
• Suezmax and Aframax-class tankers loading

Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed oil loadings on Sunday after a two-day suspension triggered by a Ukrainian missile and drone attack, two industry sources said and LSEG data showed.

Novorossiysk and a neighbouring Caspian Pipeline Consortiumterminal temporarily suspended oil exports – equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day, or 2% of global supply – on Friday. Global oil prices rallied by more than 2% on supply fears after the attack.

Two industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that loadings had resumed.

According to LSEG data, two tankers — the Suezmax class Arlan and Aframax class Rodos — are currently loading oil at the port’s berths. The Ukrainian attack damaged two oil berths at Novorossiysk.

The attack on Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest Black Sea export hub, was the most damaging Ukrainian attack to date on Russia’s main Black Sea crude export infrastructure.

Novorossiysk accounts for about a fifth of Russian crude exports and a long shutdown would have forced costly shuttering of oil wells in West Siberia, a step that would have significantly reduced the amount of oil sent to world markets by the world’s second largest exporter.

The attack on Novorossiysk came after months of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, oil depots and pipelines. Reuters reported on Thursday that Russia’s oil processing has fallen just 3% this year, despite Ukraine’s biggest drone attacks to date.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports oil from Kazakhstan via a Black Sea terminal, resumed oil loadings on Friday after a brief suspension due to the attack.

Russian crude oil shipments via Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis terminal totalled 3.22 million tonnes, or 761,000 barrels a day, in October, according to industry sources. A total of 1.794 million tonnes of oil products were exported through Novorossiysk in October, the sources said.

 

India allows 1.5 mln ton sugar exports on higher domestic surplus

India allowed sugar exports of 1.5 million metric tons in the new season, the government said in a notification on Friday, as a decline in the diversion of sugar for ethanol production is expected to leave a larger domestic surplus.

Higher exports from the world’s second-largest sugar producer could pressure benchmark New York and London futures, which are hovering near five-year lows.

Exports will help reduce sugar stocks in the country and support local prices, benefiting producers such as Balrampur Chini Mills, EID Parry, Dalmia Bharat, and Shree Renuka Sugars.

A 1.5 million ton export quota has been shared among operating sugar mills on a pro-rata basis, based on their average sugar production over the last three seasons, the government said in the notification.

All grades of sugar are permitted for export.

India was the world’s second-largest sugar exporter in the five years to 2022/23, with shipments averaging 6.8 million tons annually. But a drought led the government to ban sugar exports in 2023/24, and it allowed only 1 million tons to be shipped overseas last year.

India’s net sugar output for the 2025/26 season that started on Oct. 1 is estimated at 30.95 million tons after diverting about 3.4 million tons for ethanol production, up 18.5% from last year, according to the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).

ISMA last week demanded New Delhi allow exports of 2 million tons of sugar in the new season.

The industry body had earlier expected a diversion of 4.5 million to 5  million tons of sugar for ethanol this year, but only 28% of the total allocation for the biofuel went to sugar-based ethanol, with the remainder allocated to feed-based ethanol plants.

Sugar mills can export their allocated quota, either directly or through merchant exporters or refineries, until 30 September 2026, the notification said.

Mills that do not wish to use their export quota may surrender it by 31 March 2026, after which the government will reallocate the unused quotas to other mills.

India also removed its 50% duty on the export of molasses, the government said.

 

Republican state AGs raise concerns about Union Pacific deal for Norfolk Southern

A group of nine Republican state attorneys general on Friday raised competition concerns about Union Pacific’s plan to buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in an $85 billion deal to create the first U.S. coast-to-coast freight rail operator.

The officials, led by Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach, in a letter to the Surface Transportation Board, which was seen by Reuters, said they were concerned the deal “will result in undue market concentration that stifles competition and therefore creates higher prices, lower reliability, and less innovation at the expense of America’s manufacturers and, ultimately, America’s consumers.”

The tie-up, if approved, could reshape the U.S. freight rail industry and help streamline operations and eliminate interchange delays in key hubs like Chicago.

The attorneys general of the states – which also include Ohio, Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, Mississippi, Montana and Iowa – said the merger could result in high internal shipping costs that could “kneecap American companies’ ability to compete with foreign manufacturers.”

They also warned that the “downstream impact of the merger poses significant risk not just for our industrial base but also our agricultural producers. Ultimately, then, this merger could compromise our national security.”

Union Pacific said in response on Friday that it looks forward to submitting its application to the STB “to detail how this combination is good for America, meets the threshold of advancing public interest and enhances competition.” The railroad added it had won support from key unions and others to “ensure rail is not left behind.”

Norfolk Southern did not immediately comment.

Earlier on Friday, the railroads said that more than 99% of shareholders at both companies voted in favor of the deal. The STB review could take about 12 to 18 months.

The railroad industry has struggled with volatile freight volumes, rising labor and fuel costs, and growing pressure from shippers over service reliability.

In September, President Donald Trump said the merger “sounds good to me” after he met with Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena to discuss the deal for the biggest U.S. rail merger in decades.

Union Pacific dominates freight rail operations in the Western United States, while Norfolk Southern is a leading carrier in the East. Together, they form two of the four major U.S. Class I railroads, alongside BNSF Railway and CSX Corp

 

 

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