Global Ag News For Nov 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China snaps up US soybeans after pledge to Trump, but at high price, traders say

• Chinese purchase from US is its largest since at least January
• U.S. soybeans remain costlier than Brazilian cargoes
• Chicago soybean futures rise to June 2024 high on China buying

China bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, its largest purchase since at least January and the most significant since a summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in October.

China is buying U.S. soybeans to meet the pledges it made to Washington at the trade summit in Busan, South Korea, even though the cargoes are priced higher than rival Brazilian offers, two Asia-based traders said.

“This bigger round of U.S. soybean buying is no longer a goodwill gesture but a manifestation of China’s commitment to the Busan terms,” said a Singapore-based trader.

China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO bought at least 840,000 metric tons for shipment in December and January, the two traders with knowledge of the deals told Reuters.

Eight of the vessels were for shipment in December and January from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals, while the rest were for shipment in January from Pacific Northwest ports, one trader said. A second trader estimated around 75% of the sales were for Gulf shipment, with the remainder from the Pacific Northwest ports.

The sales total may ultimately be larger if more deals are finalized, traders said.

COFCO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

All four traders declined to be named due to the market sensitivity of the issue.

The White House said China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year, but only a small volume of sales had occurred before Monday. China imported nearly 27 million tons of U.S. soy last year, according to U.S. government data.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil up 0.70.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 18 in SRW, up 14 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 33 1/4; Soymeal up $4.30; Soyoil up 1.63.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 1/2 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 1/9 in HRS; Corn is up 5; Soybeans up 43 1/2; Soymeal up $5.70; Soyoil up 3.11.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.0% in SRW, down 5.4% in HRW, down 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.1%; Soybeans up 16.0%; Soymeal up 6.4%; Soyoil up 30.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil up 14; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 59.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 59 ringgit (+1.42%) at 4210.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 450 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 17 were: SRW Wheat down 2,041 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,625, Corn down 11,325, Soybeans up 9,524, Soymeal down 8,592, Soyoil down 451.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 18 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather will persist across the U.S. over the next 10 days. Moderate to heavy wet spells are expected across the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays warm with below-normal rainfall, while Central Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: France and Eastern Europe are expected to experience above normal precipitation, while the rest of Europe will see cool weather during the 15-day outlook.
• ASIA: Asia will be mostly near-normal to cool over the next 15 days, with mixed patterns in north/central China. Wet spells are restricted to southern India and Southeast Asia during the next 15-day period.

EARLY DROUGHT RISKS AREA APPEARING FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL, AND ARGENTINA MAY ALSO TREND THAT DIRECTION INTO DECEMBER

What to Watch:

• Argentina will experience a brief heat wave next week, but persistent dryness will be the main concern for corn/soybeans
• Upcoming Brazil rains will benefit coffee/sugarcane and northern corn/soybean areas, while drought risks will build in Southern Brazil
• Dry weather will intensify over Paraguay through the next couple weeks, which will start to become a downside risk to corn/soybeans

 

Brazil Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers north Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Thursday, near normal Friday. 

Argentina Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains:  Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday.  

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, some snow north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, some snow north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday. 

 

The player sheet for 11/17 had funds: net buyers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,500 corn, buyers of 21,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, or at least 840,000 metric tons, for shipment in December and January, two traders with knowledge of the deals told Reuters.
• USDA CORRECT EXPORT SALES DATA: The U.S. Department of Agriculture corrected some export sales among a trove of announcements the agency made on Friday.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Tuesday seeking up to 69,000 tons
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice was estimated at $354.19 a ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

TODAY

US Inspected 2.054m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.176m of Soybeans

In week ending Nov. 13, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 2,054k tons vs 1,485k the previous wk, 874k a yr ago
• Wheat: 247k tons vs 291k the previous wk, 197k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,176k tons vs 1,125k the previous wk, 2,267k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Nov. 13

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Nov. 13 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Italy-bound shipments made up 199k tons of the 1.18m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

 

CROP SURVEY: Winter Wheat Conditions Seen at 52% Good/Excellent

US winter wheat conditions seen rated at 52% good/excellent, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as five analysts.

• This compares to 49% good/excellent last year at this time

 

NOPA October US soybean crush hits record high 227.647 mln bushels

The U.S. soybean crush topped all trade forecasts and hit a record high in October, according to a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 99% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 227.647 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 15.1% from the 197.863 million bushels crushed in September and up 13.9% from the October 2024 crush of 199.943 million bushels. It also eclipsed the previous monthly crush record of 206.604 million bushels set in December 2024.

U.S. crush capacity has swelled in recent years as processors built new plants and expanded existing ones to meet rising vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers. Many plants that had been idled for seasonal maintenance ahead of the U.S. harvest this year resumed operations by October in time to receive a flood of newly harvested soybeans.

Last month’s crush had been expected to rise to 209.522 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters. Estimates ranged from 197.400 million to 223.500 million bushels, with a median of 208.000 million bushels.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of October 31 rose to 1.305 billion pounds, up 5.0% from a nine-month low of 1.243 billion pounds at the end of September and up 21.5% from the 1.074 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to increase to 1.257 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.220 billion to 1.325 billion pounds, with a median of 1.238 billion pounds.

 

Russian agricultural organizations boost grain reserves 14.4% at end of Oct – Rosstat

Russian agricultural organizations increased reserves of grain and legumes 14.4% year-on-year to 40.8 million tonnes at the end of October, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said.

Reserves of wheat grew 21.4% to 26.5 million tonnes. Corn reserves fell 30.1% to 2.99 million tonnes.

Rosstat also reported that agricultural organizations had sold 9.3 million tonnes of grain in October, up 4.3% YoY. The result for the first ten months fell 15.7% to 54.6 million tonnes. Wheat sales in October increased 3.9% YoY to 6.3 million tonnes and fell 15.1% YoY in 10M to 37.6 million tonnes. Corn sales fell 15.7% in October to 897,300 tonnes and 31% in 10M to 4.5 million tonnes.

Oilseed crop sales increased 7.1% to 2.99 million tonnes in October and fell 5.7% to 11.9 million tonnes in 10M. This included 1.6 million tonnes of sunflower seed sold in October, up 5.3%, and 5.9 million tonnes in 10M, down 19%.

Rosstat said that these data did not cover the new regions.

 

India Oct. Oilmeals Exports Rise to 371,235 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 371,235 tons in October from 299,252 tons in September, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports fell to 145,552 tons from 192,262 tons in September
• Soymeal exports rose to 180,172 tons from 81,851 tons in September
• Rice-bran extract exports were 14,589 tons
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 27,589 tons from 24,133 tons in September

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: World crop may hit a record; inventories are likely to increase

Cepea, 17 – The global wheat production is expected to increase 3.5% and hit the record of 828.89 million tons in the 2025/26 season, according to data from the USDA released on November 14. From the 16 producing countries, the output is likely to move up in 8, remain stable in 6 and decrease in only 2. As for Argentina, Bolsa de Cereales indicates that the production may hit the record of 24 million tons.

This scenario indicates that the supply may be high and that there is a possibility that Brazil imports higher volumes from Argentina, which can affect global prices and, consequently, values in the domestic market.

The 2025/2026 consumption may total 818.9 million tons, slightly lower than the supply and increasing 1.1% compared to the season before.

 

Malaysia Not Aggressively Expanding Biofuel Use: Minister Johari

Malaysia is not aggressively expanding its palm-biofuel use for now as it still has ample supply of fossil fuels, according to Minister of Plantation and Commodities Johari Abdul Ghani.

• Malaysia’s policy differs from Indonesia, which is pushing forward with its B50 biofuel mandate, Johari said in a briefing on the sidelines of an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur
• Indonesia’s higher biofuel mandate will utilize more palm oil, which “will be good for every player in this industry,” he said
• To boost its palm oil supply, Malaysia will focus on increasing yields, rather than increasing land-use
• Malaysia has to respect Indonesian laws on government-led plantation land seizures, some of which may involve Malaysian palm companies
  • “We cannot interfere. Whatever action they have taken with the palm oil industry players, that’s their prerogative”
  • NOTE: Indonesia Seizes 2 Million Hectares of Illegally-Used Land (1)
• Almost 80% of Malaysia’s palm oil industry players are ready to comply with the EUDR
  • Industry has to adhere to Malaysia’s national certification standard, known as MSPO
• Malaysia is exploring ways to enhance two-way trade with Russia and open up new markets that will establish new linkages with the country
  • Malaysia will deal with companies that are not sanctioned

 

Morocco Targets Hike in Cereal-Planting Despite Water Shortages

Morocco targets increasing total area planted with cereal crops to 4.4m hectares in the farming season that runs from November to end-May, Agriculture Minister Ahmed El-Bouari tells lawmakers.

• NOTE: Morocco planted a total 2.6m hectares during previous campaign
• Authorities plan to subsidize purchase costs for 120,000 tons of cereal seeds and 650,000 tons of phosphate-based fertilizer
• Farming still “endures the constraint of irrigation quotas,” which cover only 8% of needs
• “We are imposing strict irrigation quotas in the Gharb, Tadla, Melouya, Tafilalet and Ouarzazate” while irrigation continues to be halted in other areas
• Dams storing water destined for farming are 28% full, with 3.89m cubic meters of reserves
• “We hope that Allah will bless us with beneficial rainfalls,” minister says

 

Malaysia to Position Palm Oil as Model of Low-Carbon Growth

Malaysia aims to position palm oil as the global model for sustainable, inclusive, low-carbon growth, according to Energy Transition and Water Transformation Minister Fadillah Yusof.

• This aligns with Malaysia’s aspirations to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, with the palm sector playing a pivotal role in green innovation, Fadillah said at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur Tuesday
• Malaysia is ready to collaborate with governments, researchers, and industry leaders worldwide to ensure that palm oil continues to advance global food security, renewable energy and climate resilience

 

Russian grain exports via Baltic Sea jump 30% in 2025, data shows

Russia’s grain exports from its Baltic Sea terminals have increased by 30% this year, with nearly half going to African countries, data from the Federal Centre for Agriculture Products Safety Evaluation showed on Monday.

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is expanding its Baltic Sea ports to diversify its agricultural exports and reduce dependence on Black Sea routes, where shipping infrastructure has been targeted in attacks by Ukraine.

Grain exports from Baltic Sea ports this year totalled 1.3 million metric tons by November 12, the data showed, with 42% going to Africa. Wheat accounted for 93% of the total grain exports from these ports.

In Africa, the grain from the Baltic Sea ports was shipped to Morocco, Nigeria, Egypt, Senegal, Togo, Tunisia, Algeria and Cameroon.

In the past few years, Russia has opened two new major ports, Vysotsky and Lugaport, in the Gulf of Finland, near the city of St. Petersburg. These ports have the capacity to handle up to 15 million metric tons per year.

Russia plans to export 50 million tons of grain in total in the 2024/25 marketing season (July-June).

However, exports from ports across the country overall have been slow so far, at 16.8 million tons since July 1 to October 31, according to data from agricultural transport company Rusagrotrans, due to an abundant global harvest and low prices.

 

China seeks more cooperation with Russia in energy, agriculture

China is ready to deepen cooperation with Russia in energy, agriculture and other investments, Premier Li Qiang said during a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow on Monday.

Li told Mishustin that China welcomes more agricultural and food products from Russia, according to the official news agency Xinhua.

China also hopes Russia will make it easier for Chinese enterprises to invest and operate there, Xinhua said in its report, citing Li.

Mishustin told Li that the cooperation between the two sides has repeatedly proven its resilience to external challenges.

“Our cooperation in the energy sphere is of a special, strategic nature and spans the oil, gas, coal and nuclear sectors,” Mishustin told Li, according to a transcript from the meeting published on Russia’s government website.

Russia, waging war against NATO-supplied Ukrainian forces, and China, under pressure from a concerted U.S. effort to counter its growing military and economic strength, have increasingly found common geopolitical cause.

Beijing and Moscow announced a “no limits” strategic partnership just days before Putin sent tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022. Xi has met Putin more than 40 times over the past decade, and in recent months Putin has publicly referred to China as an ally.

 

Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado region hurts potential soybean output, study shows

Clearing land for agricultural use in Brazil’s Cerrado tropical savanna region causes drier weather conditions that ultimately hurt soybean yields, according to the findings of a new study released on Monday.

The study, which was shared first with Reuters, argues that a fall in yields drives farmers to clear even more land, further accelerating degradation of Brazil’s second-largest biome after the Amazon and hampering conservation efforts.

“Our new analysis found that when farmers clear native vegetation for soy, the climate impacts extend far beyond the cleared plots,” Zero Carbon Analytics said in a statement detailing the main findings of the research group’s study.

Brazil’s Cerrado region occupies more than 2 million square kilometers (772,204 square miles), about 23% of the South American country’s territory.

The region would have produced an additional $9.4 billion of soy – nearly 8% of its soy output in the 10 years covered by the study – if land there had not been cleared for soy since 2008.

Zero Carbon Analytics looked at soy production, yields, export and price data from 840 Cerrado municipalities between 2013 and 2023, as well as rainfall and aridity data.

However, according to data from Brazilian crop agency Conab going back to 2008-2009, Brazil’s average soy yields showed a tendency to rise. Thanks to the use of new technology including GMO seeds and better farm inputs, it grew by nearly 38% to 3.62 metric tons per hectare in 2024-2025.

“Our analysis isn’t denying that production has increased,” said Joanne Bentley-McKune, the author of the study, which was peer-reviewed by an economist. “What it’s showing is that production increases in spite of climate losses.”

The difference between soy output and what could have been produced – estimated at around 34 million tons – due to deforestation in the Cerrado from 2013-2023 shows “the gap between what was achieved and what could have been achieved if we had these technological gains without that climate disruption,” Bentley-McKune said.

Brazil, the world’s biggest soy producer and exporter and a key soy supplier to China, is expected to harvest close to 178 million tons in the current season.

 

Brazil gets EU confirmation for pre-listing of poultry, egg exporters

The European Union sent a letter to Brazil’s government confirming the return of the pre-listing system for Brazilian poultry and egg exporting plants, according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry on Monday.

• The pre-listing mechanism had been suspended since 2018.
• The system allows plants that meet EU health requirements to be approved by Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry.
• Once domestic approval of a plant is communicated to the bloc, that facility becomes eligible to export, no longer requiring specific missions carried out by EU authorities.
• The pre-listing model makes the export authorization process faster and more predictable, the ministry said.
• “This is a spectacular market, lucrative for Brazilian chicken and eggs. We worked for three years to get it reopened,” Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said.

 

USDA to Open Second Phase of Natural Disaster Relief for Farmers

US farmers who faced crop losses as a result of natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 may start applying on Nov. 24 for a second phase of aid, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday.

• The aid is part of $16 billion in disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers approved by Congress
• Assistance is via the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program
• The second phase covers producers with non-indemnified, uninsured and quality losses to crops, trees, bush and vines that weren’t covered in phase one
• The first phase of aid was announced in July, and remains available to producers with indemnified losses
• Producers have until April 30, 2026 to apply for assistance under both phases

 

 

 

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