Global Ag News For Nov 26.2025

TOP HEADLINES

India 2025-26 Food Grain Production Seen Higher on Good Rains

Output of food grains grown during the June-September monsoon season is likely to rise in 2025-26, helped by ample rains across most parts of the country, according to a statement by the farm ministry on Wednesday.

• Monsoon-sown food grain output is seen at 173.3 million tons, up 3.87 million tons from a year earlier, according to first advance estimates
• NOTE: Monsoon-sown crops are generally planted in June-July and harvested in October-November
• Rice production is estimated at 124.5m tons, up 1.73m tons from 2024-25 during the same period
• Total coarse cereals production seen at 41.4m tons
  • Corn output will likely total 28.3m tons, up 3.5m tons from a year ago
• Total pulses output seen at 7.4m tons
• Oilseeds production is estimated at 27.56m tons
  • Peanut output at 11.1m tons; soybean production at 14.27m tons
• Sugar cane output seen at 475.6m tons, up 21m tons from a year earlier
• Cotton production at 29.2m bales of 170 kilograms each

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 3/4 in SRW, down 9 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil up 1.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.6% in SRW, down 8.2% in HRW, down 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 7.5%; Soybeans up 12.6%; Soymeal up 3.2%; Soyoil up 26.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 14 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 40; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is up 32.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 32 ringgit (+0.80%) at 4022.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 176 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 25 were: SRW Wheat down 7,522 contracts, HRW Wheat up 363, Corn down 39,716, Soybeans down 6,334, Soymeal down 6,484, Soyoil down 17,989.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 25 November 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A strong cyclone will blanket portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin with light to moderate snowfall mid-week, ushering in winter-like temperatures across the Midwest beyond that time as an item to moniter for winter crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: A cooling trend will emerge across Argentina into next week as a favorable trend for corn/soybeans, though heat risks could return thereafter
• AFRICA: Divided, but moderate weather will be positive for early maize development in South Africa through the next couple weeks
• AUSTRALIA: Cool/wet conditions into early December will slow the wheat/rapeseed harvest in Queensland, South Australia, and Victoria
• TROPICS: Tropical Storm 4 will make landfall in northern Sumatera later today, bringing strong winds and flooding rains to the palm oil areas there

Brazil: Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil throughout the week. A front will move through the south this weekend into early next week, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall below-normal rainfall is in the forecast heading into December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

Argentina: Soil moisture remains high across the country. However, the weather pattern is much drier. A front will move through with scattered showers this weekend, otherwise dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

Northern Plains: A system continues to move through on Tuesday, causing a big drop in temperature and a band of heavy snow across the north. Strong winds may create some brief blizzard conditions as well. A burst of cold air is moving in and will be in place the rest of the week, but will be significantly colder behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

Central/Southern Plains: A system pushed out on Monday after bringing through some heavy rain across Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A stronger cold front is pushing through on Tuesday with a burst of cooler air, but will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions are all possible. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most areas dormant as we usher in winter. A couple of storms may follow for next week that may have massive impacts as well, but models are having even more trouble trying to decide how to develop them.

Midwest: Scattered showers moved in on Monday with a system that moves out on Tuesday. However, it is being immediately be followed by a clipper system for Tuesday and Wednesday. That system will bring through some breezy winds and heavy snow across the north, along with a burst of much cooler air and lake-effect snow for Wednesday through Friday. The region should see a major winter system this weekend. While models are still working out the details, there is potential for just about everything including heavy rain and snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

Delta: Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River after last week’s rainfall, but are still low. However, some heavy rain moved through on Monday that will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend and several others may follow for early December. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time. 

 

The player sheet for 11/25 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, and buyers of 2,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from optional origins in a second private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 60,000 metric tons corn in a tender on Tuesday.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased at least 130,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender seeking up to 138,000 tons on Tuesday.
• CORN SALE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Monday without issuing an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 131,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada in an international tender on Wednesday. The purchase involved 91,300 tons sourced from the United States, believed to have been sold by United Grain Corporation in two consignments. Another 40,000 tons from Canada was said to have been sold by Bunge.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP), Pakistan’s state agency, has issued a tender to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Oct. 9

By Giovanna Serafim

(Bloomberg) — The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 9, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 202k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 842k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Oct. 9

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 9, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 13.8k tons of the 28.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

China buys at least 10 US soybean cargoes in new deals after Trump-Xi call, sources say

• China bought cargoes worth around $300 million since Tuesday for Jan shipment
• Purchases come a day after call between Trump and Xi
• China buying US soy despite prices higher than Brazilian cargoes

China bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed since Tuesday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, a day after the presidents of both countries spoke on the phone.

The purchases of the unusually large volumes extend a surge in Chinese buying after the recent thaw in U.S.-China trade relations. U.S. President Donald Trump touted relations with China as “extremely strong” after a phone call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Monday.

Trump said he had pressed Xi to accelerate and increase Beijing’s purchases of U.S. goods during the call, and that the Chinese leader had “more or less agreed”.

One trader said China bought about 12 cargoes, while another estimated the volume at 10–15. Each cargo is about 60,000 to 65,000 metric tons.

All the cargoes are scheduled for January shipment from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals and Pacific Northwest ports, the sources said on Wednesday.

The purchases come despite U.S. soybeans being priced higher than Brazilian supplies.

China paid around $2.3 per bushel over the January Chicago futures contract SF26 for shipments from Gulf terminals and a premium of $2.2 per bushel from Pacific Northwest ports, well above the prices for Brazilian soybeans, which are around $1.8 per bushel over the January CBOT futures, traders said.

“Commercial buyers will continue to avoid U.S. soybean imports, as prices remain higher than Brazilian beans. At these levels, crush margins are not financially viable,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

China, which had largely shunned U.S. soybeans for months amid a tense Washington–Beijing trade standoff, has stepped up purchases recently following late-October talks between the two countries’ leaders in South Korea.

State-run grain buyer COFCO has led the buying, booking nearly 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans since late October, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

The recent deals still remain well below the 12 million tons of purchases announced by the White House.

However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday Chinese purchases of American soybeans are “right on schedule,” citing an agreement for Beijing to buy 87.5 million tons of the U.S. product over the next three-and-a-half years.

 

Chinese ‘right on schedule’ for US soybean purchases, Bessent tells CNBC

Chinese purchases of American soybeans are “right on schedule”, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday, citing an agreement for Beijing to buy 87.5 million metric tons of the U.S. product over the next three and a half years.

The U.S. and China will always be natural rivals, Bessent said in an interview with CNBC, but the two countries’ relationship is in a good place.

On Monday, President Donald Trump touted relations with China as “extremely strong” after a call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The call came weeks after the two leaders met in South Korea, where they agreed to a framework for a trade deal that has yet to be finalized.

Trump and Xi could have four meetings in the coming year, Bessent said. Trump may attend the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which will be hosted by China in 2026, while Xi will be in the United States for the annual meeting of Group of 20 industrialized nations.

The two leaders will also make state visits to each other’s countries, Bessent said.

 

Wet grain, Russian attacks on railways hit Ukrainian corn exports, union says

High grain moisture content and logistical woes caused by Russian attacks have slashed Ukraine’s corn exports from Black Sea ports in November and may do so again in December, farmers’ union UAC said on Tuesday.

Ukraine is one of Europe’s leading corn growers and exporters. This year, however, harvesting was significantly delayed by rains in most regions, and the harvested corn was saturated and required additional drying.

Ukraine expects to harvest at least 30 million metric tons of corn in 2025.

UAC’s weekly report said Ukraine had exported 1.3 million tons of corn so far in November against 2.5 million tons in November 2024.

Traders say they plan to export 1.85 million tons of corn in December versus 2.6 million tons in the same month last year.

“There was a problem harvesting, then there was a problem drying, and now there is a problem transporting the corn to the ports,” UAC said.

The union said that ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian railways, locomotives and power substations had led to a shortage of locomotives and significantly lengthened the time it takes to deliver corn to ports.

It said grain delivery times to seaports from central Ukrainian regions had increased several times to up to six weeks.

Ukraine’s economy ministry said on Tuesday the country had exported a total of 3.12 million tons of corn so far for 2025/26 against almost 7 million tons a season earlier.

 

Brazil sees issues related to import of US biofuels ‘practically resolved’

Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Tuesday that unspecified issues related to the country’s imports of U.S. biofuels were “practically resolved”.

He did not provide details, but according to the Development, Industry, Trade and Services Ministry, which is led by Alckmin, his remarks referred to easing rules under the RenovaBio program to address U.S. concerns.

RenovaBio encourages the use of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels in a bid to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In its National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, the Trump administration flagged the program as a non-tariff barrier that put U.S. producers at a disadvantage, urging Brazil to revise its regulations.

Until June this year, foreign biofuel exporters needed an intermediary – typically a Brazilian importer – in order to obtain certification and issue decarbonization credits.

But a mid-June resolution by oil regulator ANP allowed foreign exporters to be certified directly, which the ministry told Reuters has already leveled the playing field for them.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 4.40 Million Tons In November – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.40 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 4.71 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.50 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 2.68 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.11 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 6.36 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Brazil soybean yield prospects remain steady amid stable sowing progress

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 178.3 [174.0–182.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Brazil soybean production is largely unchanged at 178.3 [174.0–182.5] million tons, as sowings progress in full swing on schedule amid favorable weather and overall healthy soil moisture conditions. Our current median estimate is above the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 175 million tons (released on 14 November), which assumes total soy sowings at 48.8 million hectares and a national level yield of 3.59 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 49.1 million hectares and 3.63 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 177.6 million tons and 49.1 million hectares, respectively (released on 13 November).

The second half of November has continued a trend of near to below average precipitation across the majority of soybean growing regions of the Central-West and the South. Except for some portions of southern Mato Grosso do Sul, wet weather was mostly in store over the past two weeks, with 30-70 mm of precipitation in total, up to 60 mm below normal. Temperature patterns remained split, with largely above average temperatures observed in Mato Grosso and areas to the east while Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul continued to experience rather cool conditions. Soil moisture levels remain high in most key crop regions despite the recent dry weather, but are declining fast in many parts of southern Mato Grosso and central Goiás, warranting attention. On the other hand, excessive moisture risks continue to be a concern in the South (albeit not alarming yet), Paraná in particular, which received more than 120 mm of precipitation over the past 30 days. Fortunately, drier conditions are in the forecast across the South through early December.

As of 22 November, Brazil’s soybeans were 78% planted nationally according to the latest CONAB’s crop progress report (released on 24 November), behind last year’s pace of 83.3% but ahead of the 5-year average of 75.8%. The LSEG Weather Research team’s lately released ENSO outlook for December-February suggests that the chances of La Niña during the period are high, hinting above-average rainfall patterns in northern Brazil and potential dryness in its southern counterpart. The potential impacts from a La Niña event on Brazilian crops are difficult to predict as there is little statistically significant relationship between ENSO episodes and crop yield levels in Brazil (unlike in Argentina which displays a strong correlation between the two). Crop progress, soil moisture status, and province-level weather conditions should all be monitored closely, with a prime growing season on the horizon.

 

Argentina wheat production up but harvest delays warrant attention

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 21.0 [19.8–22.1] MILLION TONS, UP 8% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina wheat production is raised by 8% to 21.0 [19.8–22.1] million tons, thanks to better than expected late season weather and overall healthy soil moisture conditions throughout the Pampas, though recent excessive rains are resulting in some harvest delays. In November’s WASDE (released on 14 November) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 22 million tons, up from its previous estimate of 19.5 million tons in September. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 24 and 24.5 million tons, respectively. Harvest has begun across the central/northern parts of the Pampas but many key areas are experiencing early season delays. Nationally it is 23% complete so far according to the Ministry of Agriculture, and 20.3% complete according to Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires, behind last year’s 28%. Fortunately for farmers, drier conditions are in the forecast through next week but temperatures will likely remain volatile, warranting attention.

 

Australia’s wheat production rises as harvest progresses

2025/26 AUSTRALIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 35.6 [34.6-37.1] MILLION TONS, UP 2.3% FROM LAST UDPATE

Recent analysis of late-season satellite imagery and weather data has led to an upward revision of Australia’s wheat production estimate by 2.3%, now projected at 35.6 [34.6–37.1] million tons. This adjustment is supported by satellite imagery showing healthy vegetation across key wheat-growing regions, with density levels at or above the long-term median during the late season.

Over the past two weeks, temperatures have been near-normal to slightly cooler across most major wheat-producing areas, while precipitation has generally remained below seasonal averages, except in northern New South Wales. These conditions have enabled steady harvest progress across the country.

Looking ahead, forecasts for the next two weeks indicate near-normal to cooler temperatures with moderate rainfall in Queensland and Victoria, and low rainfall in New South Wales and South Australia. Western Australia is expected to experience near normal to slightly warmer temperatures with low precipitation. Overall, December is likely to bring near-normal weather across major wheat-growing regions, providing favorable conditions for the ongoing harvest.

 

 

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