Global Ag News For Nov 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Turkish Grain Board buys first Russian wheat since Feb 2023

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has resumed purchases of Russian wheat, which were suspended in February 2023.

The state-owned Turkish institution bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat from United Grain Company on C&F terms, the Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, citing a TMO notice to traders, reported on its Telegram channel. The price was not specified.

This is the first wheat purchase since February 2023. Turkey’s wheat harvest fell to 17.9 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season from 19 million tonnes a year earlier and a record 21 million tonnes in the 2023/2024. Given the strong harvest in the previous two seasons, the TMO stopped buying wheat abroad.

However, Russia continued to export wheat to Turkey through commercial channels. Russian Grain Union monitoring showed that Turkey was the second largest buyer of Russian wheat after Egypt in October, when wheat shipments to the country jumped 90% year-on-year to 883,000 tonnes.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

US grains markets were closed for overnight session due to Holiday.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil up 0.45.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 16 1/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 1.96.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.1% in SRW, down 7.5% in HRW, down 3.2% in HRS; Corn is down 5.8%; Soybeans up 13.3%; Soymeal up 3.1%; Soyoil up 27.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil up 46; Palm oil up 122; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 24.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 24 ringgit (+0.59%) at 4114.

There were changes in registrations (30 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 368 Soymeal; 176 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 26 were: SRW Wheat down 5,885 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,869, Corn down 29,413, Soybeans up 10,817, Soymeal down 625, Soyoil down 4,825.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 NOVEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The latest forecasts uphold minimum temperatures near 0°F (-18°C) in winter wheat regions of North Dakota/Montana for the upcoming cold outbreak in the North U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The expected wet spell in the Argentinian Pampas poses the risk of local flooding and potential impacts on mature wheat
• EUROPE: Following the current cold spell, conditions across Continental Europe are likely to milden during the first part December
• BLACK SEA: Abnormally warm conditions will prevail in all winter wheat areas of Ukraine and Russia throughout the next 10-15 days
• TROPICS: High activity is ongoing over the Southeast Asia, with 3 tropical cyclones affecting India, Indonesia and Vietnam

 

INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CROP AREAS OF THE BLACK SEA REGION

What to Watch:

• Cold spell across Europe is near the end and mild conditions will prevail in early December
• Continuation of abnormally warm conditions in the Black Sea region
• Increasingly dry weather expected across Hungary, Ukraine and SW Russia where soil moisture levels are already exceptionally low

 

Brazil: Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil throughout the week. A front will move through the south Sunday and Monday, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall below-normal rainfall is in the forecast through early December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

 

Argentina: Soil moisture remains high across the country, but the country is in a drier pattern. Despite that, a front will move through with scattered showers this weekend and some areas may see heavy rain. Otherwise, dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

Northern Plains: A system brought some heavy snow to northern areas on Tuesday, along with strong winds that created blizzard conditions for at least a while. A big drop in temperature has followed behind it and will be in place the rest of the week. Even more cold air will move in behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

Central/Southern Plains: A cold front moved through on Tuesday with a burst of much cooler air, and will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds are all possible. Northeast Nebraska has the best chance at accumulating snow on Saturday. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most winter wheat areas dormant as we usher in winter. Another system may move through early next week that may have impacts as well, but the forecast is for milder conditions by the end of next week.

Midwest: A system moved through on Monday and Tuesday with scattered rain showers. And a clipper system immediately followed on Tuesday that is moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. That system is bringing through some breezy winds with heavy snow across the north, along with a burst of much cooler air that will turn on the lake-effect snow through Friday. Another big system will move into the region late Friday and continue east through the weekend. More widespread heavy snow is forecast with this system, especially from Iowa through Michigan. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

Delta: Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River but are still low. However, heavy rain earlier this week and more coming up will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend with another a couple of days later. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

Europe: Scattered showers continue to move across the continent in waves through next week, which has been the case for several weeks now. That has been favorable for winter grains. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the central and north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

Black Sea: Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers through next week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

 

The player sheet for 11/26 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: China bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed since Tuesday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, a day after the presidents of both countries spoke on the phone.
• WHEAT SALES: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 131,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada in an international tender on Wednesday.
• WHEAT SALES: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has purchased about 300,000 metric ton of Russian milling wheat in a direct deal without issuing an international tender.
• RICE SALES: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. purchased an estimated 20,500 metric tons of rice to be sourced mostly from Vietnam in an international tender seeking up to 78,744 tons, which closed on November 5.
• BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 125,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is November 27. The grain can be sourced from optional origins.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP), Pakistan’s state agency, has issued a tender to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.5% to 21.968M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.622 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.113m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.099m

 

Brazil soy crop to reach record 178.1 million tons, Agroconsult’s first forecast shows

Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to harvest a record crop of 178.1 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday in its first estimate of the current crop.

During an industry event in Sao Paulo, Andre Pessoa, head of Agroconsult, said the area planted with soybeans is expected to grow by 2.1% to 48.8 million hectares (120.587 million acres).

The area expansion is mainly driven by conversion of pastureland into fields to grow the oilseed, he noted.

Agroconsult estimates about 85% of Brazil’s new soy has been planted and a portion of the crop will be ready for export as early as January.

Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, ships most of its soy to China.

Pessoa said the weather has been generally benevolent this season, with planting delays in some areas and forced replanting in others due to irregular rains.

The replanting effort, however, has not been as intense as in the 2023/24 season, he said, referring to a period when the problem was more widespread due to drought. Even so, replanting in some places reached 4% of the area, which will likely affect yields, Pessoa said.

Driven by abundant supplies and Chinese demand, Agroconsult believes Brazilian soybean exports will reach 109.1 million tons this year and rise by 2.7% in the next, to 112 million tons.

 

China Halts Some Brazil Soybean Imports Over Contamination

China halted soybean imports from five Brazilian plants owned by major global agricultural firms over sanitation concerns, according to people familiar with the matter.

The suspensions hit two Cargill Inc. units, as well as facilities operated by Louis Dreyfus Co., CHS Agronegócios and Tres Tentos Agroindustrial SA, said the people, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly about the subject. Chinese inspectors found wheat grains treated with pesticides mixed into the shipments, the people said.

Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, CHS and Tres Tentos didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture confirmed in an email that five units were affected. That compares to a total of more than 2,000 entities registered to export to China, the ministry said, adding that “Brazil maintains a solid and strategic relationship with China.”

The trade disruption comes when China is still buying soybeans from Brazil, even though it has resumed purchasing US soybeans following the late trade truce between Washington and Beijing. China has been heavily sourcing Brazilian soybeans this year due to concerns about potential supply shortages during the trade war with the US, its second-largest supplier.

The measure only affects specific units and traders should be able to continue to ship to China from other registered sites. Some traders with affected shipments are considering how to manage cargoes already at sea, including the possibility of reselling them to alternative destinations, the people said.

 

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop forecast at record 178 million metric tons, says Itau BBA

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is forecast to hit a record 178 million metric tons, despite some irregular weather that has delayed planting, Itau BBA analyst Francisco Queiroz said on Thursday during an online event.

The forecast compares with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 175 million tons. The USDA projects about 171.5 million tons for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop.

Soybean acreage is expected to increase by about 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) from the previous cycle, even as growers face tighter margins, Queiroz said.

The peak of the La Nina weather pattern between November and December caused irregular conditions that created some planting challenges, Queiroz added.

“But we have positive weather maps for the coming weeks in Brazil’s central region,” he said, pointing to a favorable outlook for yields in the main producing area, ensuring gains in output.

 

Argentina wheat harvest estimated at record 25.5 million tons, exchange says

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is expected to reach a record 25.5 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 24 million tons, thanks to higher-than-expected yields as harvesting progresses, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday.

• The previous record was 22.4 million tons, achieved in the 2021/22 season.
• Harvesting is 33.9% complete, with yields in central agricultural areas exceeding expectations, the exchange said.
• Higher-than-usual rainfall in recent months fostered the growth of the wheat crop.
• Soybean planting reached 36% of an estimated 17.6 million hectares (43.5 million acres), though excess moisture in Buenos Aires province is delaying work.
• Corn planting stands at 39.3% of 7.8 million hectares expected, with 82% of planted areas in good to excellent condition.
• Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest corn exporter.

 

Indonesia Sept. Palm Oil Exports Fall to 2.2m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 2.2m tons in September from 3.473m tons in August, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 4.298m tons from 5.542m tons in August
• Palm oil stockpiles rise to 2.592m tons from 2.543m tons in August
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 2.053m tons from 2.100m tons in August
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 1.07m tons from 1.111m tons in August

 

Indonesia palm oil shipments deferred to December in expectation of export tax cut

Indonesian suppliers have deferred at least 310,000 metric tons of palm oil shipments from November to December, betting that a recent price slide could prompt Jakarta to cut its export tax by more than $50 a ton next month, sources from trading houses and plantation companies said.

The shipments, representing about 12% of typical monthly exports, have been postponed to the first week of December, four sources who are directly involved in the deals said, with the decision expected to boost domestic stockpiles.

The move will lift shipments in December, a month when exports typically decline. Indonesia exports about 2.5 million tons of palm oil each month.

Higher Indonesian exports in December could support benchmark palm oil prices on the Bursa Malaysia after they fell to a four-month low earlier this week due to rising production in Malaysia.

Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top producers of palm oil – used in products like ice cream and soap – and it is favoured by some in Asia over alternative edible oils like soyoil and sunflower oil.

The market expects export duties for December cargoes to be cut by more than $50 per ton, prompting sellers to shift shipments from late November to early December to benefit from the anticipated reduction, the four sources and a Mumbai-based dealer at a trading house said. The sources and the dealer did not wish to be named as their companies do not allow them to speak publicly.

Indonesia set its November crude palm oil reference price at $963.75 a ton, resulting in an export tax of $124. Jakarta is expected to unveil its December export tax before the start of the month.

Indonesia’s trade ministry sets a monthly reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives, based on average CPO prices in major international markets over a specified period.

Indonesia collects levies on palm oil exports to help fund its national biodiesel programme. The revenue is used to bridge the price gap between palm-oil-based biodiesel and conventional diesel, ensuring the country’s mandatory biodiesel blending policy remains economically viable.

Advancing or deferring large shipments is rare in the palm oil trade and traders say a 310,000-ton contract deferral is unusually large.

Echoing the trade sources, Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage, said more than 100,000 tons of palm oil supplies bound for India from Indonesia were deferred from this month to December.

As a result, India’s palm oil imports could rise to around 750,000 tons in December from 650,000 tons in November, Bajoria said.

India is the world’s biggest palm oil importer.

 

Malaysia palm oil exports to China down almost 29% through October

Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China fell by almost 29% in the first 10 months of 2025, the country’s plantation and commodities minister said on Thursday.

The decline indicates deeper challenges relating not only to competitiveness and logistics, but also to pricing dynamics and market positioning, Johari Abdul Ghani said in his opening speech at an industry dialogue.

 

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest to exceed 60 million tons, deputy minister says

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest will increase to at least 60 million metric tons from 56 million tons in 2024, deputy economy minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Friday.

“The corn harvest is still ongoing, and we expect that 60 million tons (of all grains) will be harvested. Also 19 to 20 million tons of oilseeds would be harvested,” he told national television.

 

French Corn Harvest Almost Done, Wheat Planting at 98%: AgriMer

France’s corn harvest was 99% complete as of Monday, steady from the previous week and faster than the five-year average of 97% for this time of year, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 98% of the soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, up from 95% the previous week
• That compares with 93% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 94%
• The winter barley crop was 99% planted, compared with 98% the previous week
• Some 80% of the durum wheat crop was planted, up from 69% the previous week

 

China allows imports of wheat bran from Russia, customs says

China has allowed imports of qualified wheat bran products from Russia, the Chinese customs authority said in a statement on Thursday.

 

Farm Relief Payments Should Begin Early January, Rollins Says

“The payments should begin to move out early January,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says of the administration’s planned aid relief program for farmers.

Beef prices are expected to fall by spring-summer 2026, Rollins says on Fox Business

 

Export duty on Russian wheat increases 14.6% from Nov 26 to 232.3 rubles/tonne – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat stands at 232.3 rubles per tonne from November 26 compared to 202.7 rubles per tonne a week earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said.

It has therefore increased 14.6%.

The duty rates on barley and corn remain at zero.

The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $226.4 per tonne for wheat ($225.1 for the previous period), $207.4 for barley ($194.6) and $212.2 for corn ($212.6).

The new rates will be in effect until December 3 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat is currently 18,000 rubles per tonne and the reference price on barley and corn is 17,875 rubles per tonne.

 

Argentina corn crops thrive now but face drought risk in key growing period, LSEG says

Argentina’s early 2025/26 corn crops are in excellent condition due to adequate soil moisture and near-normal temperatures, but longer-term forecasts predict dry conditions that could increase drought risks, a report from LSEG Research & Insights said on Wednesday.

• Argentina’s corn production in the season was estimated by LSEG at 54.4 million metric tons, unchanged from a previous forecast.
• Northeastern Argentina received 30-60 mm of precipitation over past two weeks, sustaining high soil moisture across Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and Buenos Aires, LSEG said.
• Buenos Aires planting stood at 55% as of November 20, lagging last year’s 62% due to persistent wet weather.
• Planting in other regions is largely on schedule.

DROUGHT RISKS

• Short-term forecasts indicate relatively dry conditions in the West and North, with average precipitation for Buenos Aires and southern regions over next two weeks, LSEG said.
• But four-week forecasts suggest precipitation deficits throughout much of the corn-producing areas, the report added.
• “If realized, these deficits may elevate dryness concerns, particularly in Cordoba, San Luis, and parts of Santa Fe,” it said.
• Long-range outlooks also predict warm and dry conditions during January-February, increasing drought risks despite current favorable conditions.

 

Brazil’s corn crop forecast cut on rising drought risks, LSEG says 

Brazil’s 2025/26 corn production is expected to reach 138.6 million metric tons, an LSEG Research & Insights report released on Wednesday showed, a 1% cut from the previous forecast due to drought risks.

• Southern corn-growing regions may face prolonged dry conditions through December, while Southeastern Brazil and Goias state are expected to receive showers over the next two weeks, the report showed.
• Drought risks are increasing, especially in southern regions, LSEG Research & Insights said.
• Brazilian farmers are sowing their first corn crop.
• Southern regions have experienced dry conditions since early October and they may persist for the next two weeks and potentially through the end of December.
• “Should this scenario occur, prolonged dryness could negatively impact yield potential,” it said.
• In Brazil’s Southeast and Goias state, meanwhile, expected rainfall could expedite first-corn planting and benefit growth.
• Nationwide first-corn planting reached 59.3% as of November 22, nearly matching 2024 levels at 58.7%, according to national crop agency Conab.
• Second-corn crops, which are planted later – after soybeans are harvested – and account for roughly 70% of national output, face little risk according to current weather outlooks.
• Their yields depend on soybean harvest progress and weather from March to July.
• Brazil is a major global corn supplier.

 

South Africa Corn Crop Rises to Second Largest on Record on Rain

South African farmers probably produced the second-biggest corn crop on record in 2025 as the country experienced good rains earlier in the year.

Commercial growers likely harvested 16.4 million tons of white and yellow corn, the Crop Estimates Committee said in an email on Thursday. That’s 0.7% more than the October forecast and compares with 12.9 million tons a year earlier, which was the least since 2019.

The country, which is the continent’s biggest grower of the grains, uses the white variety to make a staple food known locally as pap, while the yellow type is typically fed to animals.

For the 2026 season, farmers intend to plant corn on 2.67 million hectares, which would be the biggest area since 2021 and 2.7% bigger than this year, the committee said last month.

The northeastern areas of the nation are expected to receive above-normal rainfall through mid-summer, the South African Weather Service said in a seasonal forecast in late September. The provinces producing the most corn are the Free State and Mpumalanga, which are located in this region.

“The rains will help ensure that the agricultural season begins on time and that we have excellent production conditions,” Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber, said in a newsletter last week.

Farmers intend to plant 1.18 million hectares of soy this season, the most on record, demonstrating the growing importance of the oilseed in South Africa’s agricultural mix. That would be 2.5% more than a year earlier.

The potential for larger crops could prove favorable in lowering the nation’s inflation outlook.

South Africa’s annual inflation rate was 3.6% in October, the highest since September last year.

 

Shanghai Sets Up Big Commodities Trading Firm to Boost Influence

Shanghai has set up a state-owned commodities trading firm in a bid to strengthen the city’s role in both domestic and international raw materials markets.

Shanghai Guomao Holding Co. was launched on Thursday by the city’s major, Gong Zheng, the municipal government said in a statement. The aim is to build a “new, internationalized commodity trading and investment platform with competitiveness in key sectors,” it said.

The city is mainland China’s major financial hub and home to bourses such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, but it has long lacked a large, state-owned general trading house – unlike smaller centers such as Hangzhou or Xiamen. For decades, the dominant commodities players in Shanghai have instead been private firms like Maike Metals International Co., or foreign traders such as Trafigura Group.

Shanghai Guomao will pursue an integrated business model spanning “upstream resource investment, midstream supply-chain management, to downstream industrial operations”, with exposure in both physical and derivatives commodities markets, the municipal government said. It has registered capital of 13 billion yuan ($1.8 billion), according to a filing earlier this month from one of its shareholders, Shanghai International Port Group Co.

The new company was a hot topic of conversation at a major copper conference in Shanghai this week. Traders, miners, bankers, and other industry professionals are eager to learn more details and the personnel makeup of this potential partner – or competitor. Some are also looking for job opportunities.

Zheng Yuanhu, a veteran in industrial engineering and corporate finance and previously the head of a state-owned investment vehicle, will be the chairman of Shanghai Guomao, according to a separate statement from the Shanghai government. Luo Dongyuan, who used to be a vice president of brokerage Guotai Haitong Securities Co., was named as the president of the firm.

China’s central government has imposed tighter controls on commodities trading following a series of price swings and scandals. This has squeezed the already limited room for growth among privately owned firms, while creating more market opportunities for state-owned companies.

The establishment of the new company will strengthen Shanghai’s role in commodity trading and price formation, enhance the international influence of the “Shanghai price,” and contribute to the goal of the city becoming an international trading hub, the municipal government said.

 

 

 

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