Global Ag News For Nov 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Russia’s non-GMO soybeans exports to China safe despite Trump-Xi trade deal, source says

Russia’s non-genetically modified soybean exports to China are safe, a Russian government source told Reuters on Saturday, despite a deal between China and the United States concluded by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Russia ranked a distant fifth among the largest soybean exporters to China in 2024, but its shipments consist exclusively of non-genetically modified soybeans, used in the production of foods such as tofu, soy milk, and soy sauce.

Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut visited China this week for talks with her counterpart Han Jun in Beijing, aiming to expand exports just as China committed to purchasing 12 million tons of American soybeans during the current season.

The United States primarily supplies genetically modified soybeans to China, which are used for animal feed. The IKAR consultancy estimates Russia’s exports to China at up to 0.8 million tons of non-GMO soybeans this season.

“I think there is no threat to our non-GMO soybean exports. We are the only ones in the world growing it,” said the source, who declined to be identified.

Russia expects a record soybean harvest of up to 9 million metric tons this year and will have a surplus available for export, said Dmitry Rylko of IKAR. He estimated total exports at up to one million tons.

Russia banned GMO farming in 2016 in a bid to capture a share of the growing global non-GMO food market, which Fortune Business Insights projects will reach $2 trillion by 2032, up from $895 billion in 2025.

Following her meeting, Lut said Russian agricultural exports to China rose by 10% in January–September, driven by sunflower and rapeseed oils, crustaceans, frozen fish, and meat.

Russia is seeking China’s approval to allow access for its winter wheat, its main agricultural export commodity, to the Chinese market, but years of negotiations have yielded no progress.

“Our products meet the strictest standards of food quality and safety. I am confident they will help diversify China’s food market and meet growing consumer demand,” Lut said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 0.09.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 16 1/4 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 35 3/4; Soymeal up $22.80; Soyoil down 2.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.7% in SRW, down 5.6% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.6%; Soybeans up 11.0%; Soymeal up 4.4%; Soyoil up 22.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 3 yuan; Soymeal up 31; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 110; Corn up 18 — Malaysian Palm is down 92.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 92 ringgit (-2.19%) at 4115.

There were changes in registrations (-23 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 715 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 31 were: SRW Wheat up 9,456 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,724, Corn down 2,280, Soybeans up 6,882, Soymeal down 9,706, Soyoil up 8,651.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 03 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected across U.S. this week. Over the next 6 to 15 days, temperatures will vary across the country. The western states are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while most other regions may experience below-normal precipitation.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with above-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and mixed temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will experience warm weather this week, with below-average rainfall is expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cool conditions, with brief warmth over China during days 6–10. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in Southern China, Thailand and Vietnam during the next 15-day period.
• TROPICS: Typhoon Kalmaegi is currently crossing the central Philippines, with its final landfall expected in southern Vietnam.

 

UNRELENTING RAINFALL POSES CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH AMERICAN CROP REGIONS

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in Central/North Argentina
• Flood risks in South and southeast Center West Brazil

Northern Plains: Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend. A couple of clippers will move through over the next 10 days that should bring some limited precipitation and variable temperatures. Breezy winds may also be an issue like they were over the weekend, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

Central/Southern Plains: A few showers went through over the weekend, but it was largely dry. The storm track will be well to the north going into next week, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving into or through the region. That could make for some variable temperatures and occasionally breezy winds. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

Midwest: A system moved through the region this weekend with largely isolated showers. The region will be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through over the next 10 days or so. One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation will be rather limited. Overall, conditions are still favorable for harvest and other fieldwork.

Delta: Water levels will crest from north to south on the Mississippi River this week. Very little precipitation from a weather pattern that will be promoting clipper systems across the north into next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn’t change to a more favorable one.

Brazil: A front moved into central Brazil over the weekend and is restarting showers after another long stretch of dryness. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

Argentina: Soil moisture in the country is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Multiple fronts will continue to move through this week into next week, which keep conditions overall favorable.

Europe: Yet another wave of rain moved through western areas over the weekend and will continue eastward early this week. Drier weather may follow for the eastern half of the continent for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic may produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

Black Sea: Recent showers have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. Limited showers are forecast this week, generally just for western areas that are in better shape anyway. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture situation. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Isolated showers moved through eastern Australia over the weekend, but missed other key areas as well. A couple of systems will move through this week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for benefit before harvest and cotton and sorghum are planted.

China: Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 10/31 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 40,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada in an international tender on Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN & SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal-feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA to release November crop supply/demand report despite government shutdown

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said on Friday that it will release several key agriculture reports in November, including a monthly crop supply and demand report that was not issued in October due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

NASS will release its crop production and world agricultural supply and demand estimates on November 14, according to a post on its website. The report had been scheduled for November 10, but it was unclear if it would be released since the government has remained largely shuttered since October 1.

The report will provide the government’s first estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production since September, when most of the Midwestern harvest was not yet underway. Posts by some farmers on social media sites have since suggested that USDA’s yield projection was much too high.

The USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released on schedule on November 21, NASS said, after the October report was not released.

 

CROP SURVEY: US Sept. Soybean Crush, Corn for Ethanol

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of five anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 203.6m bu in Sept., a 9.2% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of September seen at 1.7b lbs, up from 1.551b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen down 2% y/y to 438.5m bu

 

Soybeans Extend Rally as US Says China Halts Retaliatory Tariffs

Soybeans extended gains after the US said China agreed to halt retaliatory tariffs following a key summit last week, and reiterated the Asian nation will ramp up purchases this year.

China will suspend all levies announced since March 4 on soybeans and other US agricultural products including corn, wheat, sorghum and chicken, according to a fact sheet released by the White House on Saturday. Beijing is yet to confirm the halt, and didn’t directly address a question on the duties last week.

The White House added that China agreed to purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year, and at least 25 million tons annually over next three years. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins first flagged the volumes last week after the summit ended without those details.

The US statement is the most detailed account yet of the trade deal following a meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea. The pact has fueled optimism that agricultural trade between the two giants, particularly soybeans, could return to normal levels.

China had shunned US soybeans as tensions between the two nations soured, taking more from South American producers. Just days before the meeting, China bought its first US cargoes, following up with further purchases after the summit. The trade was worth more than $12 billion last year.

However, even with the removal of the retaliatory tariffs, US cargoes will still incur duties of 13%, making them uncompetitive with Brazil, traders said.

 

China Seeks US Wheat After One-Year Hiatus in Purchases

China is seeking to buy US wheat after not having made any purchases in more than a year, following last week’s trade truce between the two nations.

A major grains importer in Asia’s largest economy made inquiries over the weekend for US cargoes loading from December to February, according to people familiar with matter, who asked not to be named as they aren’t authorized to speak to media.

China hasn’t bought any American wheat since early October last year, according to US Department of Agriculture data, and the inquiries come after the Asian nation resumed purchases of US soybeans last week.

Beijing has committed to open its market to US agricultural exports, according to a fact sheet released by the White House over the weekend, which followed the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. China will also remove tariffs on American wheat imposed in March, the US government said.

China also released a statement following the summit, saying it had reached consensus with the US on expanding agricultural trade, but it didn’t provide details.

The apparent renewed interest in US cargoes comes as China’s overall imports of wheat have fallen to less than a third in the first nine months of this year from the same period in 2024 as Beijing moved to bolster domestic prices due to sluggish demand and ample supply.

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Reserves Seen at Two-Year High as Output Jumps

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia rose in October as output surged to a seven-year high and exports edged up only slightly, according to a survey.

Inventories climbed 3.4% from a month earlier to 2.44 million tons last month, the median of 10 estimates in a poll of plantation executives, traders and analysts showed. That’s the highest level since October 2023 and an increase of almost 30% from a year ago.

Swelling palm oil reserves, which have been rising since March, may put further pressure on prices of the tropical commodity. Futures in Kuala Lumpur have fallen in nine of the past 11 sessions, including Monday.

Prices are heading for their lowest level in four months as demand from top importer India waned with the end of the festival season. Market participants also expect an increase in production in both Malaysia and Indonesia.

Crude palm oil production in the world’s second-largest grower rose 6% to 1.95 million tons, the highest level since October 2018, according to the survey. Exports advanced 2.8% to 1.47 million tons, after jumping 7.7% a month earlier. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will publish its monthly data on Nov. 10.

“With the Indian festival season now over, the weakness in the soybean oil market as well as a sizable increase in Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production will likely weigh on prices,” said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

Uncertainty over Indonesia’s plan to mix 50% biofuel into diesel is dampening bullish sentiment in palm, while the US-China trade agreement, which is expected to boost US soybean sales to the Asian nation, may curb Chinese buying of edible oils, including palm, he added.

Futures were 1.5% lower at 4,146 ringgit ($988) per ton by the midday break on Monday.

 

China rapeseed meal futures see largest one-day gain in almost three months after Xi–Carney talks

China’s most active Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures posted their largest daily gain in nearly three months on Monday, after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea last week without securing a breakthrough on tariffs.

The most-active rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou exchange climbed 4.23% to close at 2,491 yuan ($349.71) per metric ton – the biggest daily rise since August 13, 2025.

According to Bloomberg, Carney said on Saturday that immediate action to reduce Chinese tariffs on Canadian goods, such as canola, was never a realistic outcome for the meeting.

“There is little sign that relations between China and Canada have improved, which is supporting the rise in canola prices,” said Zhang Deqiang, an analyst at Shandong-based Sublime China Information.

In September, China extended its investigation into Canadian canola imports, granting another six months for negotiations aimed at easing a year-long trade dispute triggered by Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Beijing, the world’s largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed imports in August. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn the decision.

Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola, shipped almost C$5 billion ($3.63 billion) of canola products to China in 2024, about 80% of which were seed. The steep duties on canola seed, if they remain in place, would probably all but end those imports.

Canola, or rapeseed, is crushed to produce cooking oil and other products. The meal left behind in the crushing process is used as livestock feed.

 

Russian wheat export prices are stable, analysts expect active shipments in November

Russian wheat export prices have remained stable for the second week in a row, and analysts say exports are accelerating.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the first part of December was at $230.50 a metric ton at the end of this week, unchanged since the end of last week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $230 to $233 a ton FOB compared with $230 to 231 a ton the previous week.

“Exports were supported by the recovery in global demand for wheat and the growth in exporters’ margins,” Sovеcon said in a report. According to analysts, exporters’ margins were negative at the beginning of October, but reached $4 per ton by the end of the month.

Sovecon left unchanged its estimate of October wheat exports at 5.1 million tons.

IKAR estimates that wheat exports in October may reach 5.7-5.8 million tons, while a week earlier the estimate was 5.5 million tons.

Analysts expect active exports in November, with weather not yet hindering shipments despite the expected stormy period this month.

The preliminary estimate of wheat exports from IKAR in November was 5.3-5.5 million tons.

At the beginning of the week, railway operator Rusagrotrans estimated October wheat exports at 5.65 million tons and forecasts November exports to be above the average for the last five years, at 4.6-5.0 million tons.

Аs of 28 October, 137 million tons of grain had been harvested in Russia in bunker weight, with 6% of the area remaining to be harvested, the Ministry of Agriculture said this week.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Sellers are away from closing trades; prices move up

Cepea, 31 – Corn quotations continue to increase, influenced by the fact that sellers are away from closing deals, since they are focused on crop activities and on the development of plants. Moreover, many producers are expecting new price rises. In general, sellers offer new batches only when they need to make cash flow in the short-term and/or open room in warehouses.

Moreover, the high export parity has also reinforced price increases in Brazil this week. Purchasers who are operating end up facing high quotations from sellers. Thus, price rises were not more significant because part of consumers uses inventories instead of closing new deals.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices increased 0.9% between October 23 and 30, to close at BRL 66.24 per 60-kg bag on October 30. In the partial of this month (until Oct. 30), the Index has upped 3%. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values rose 0.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

Data from Cepea indicate that quotations are at BRL 67.00/bag in Paranaguá (PR) and hit BRL 69.00/bag at the port of Santos (SP) in some days of the week. The US dollar moved down only 0.1% between Oct. 23 and 30, at BRL 5.378 yesterday.

In the 2024/25 season (from February to the partial of October/25), Brazil shipped 24.9 million tons – in the same period last year, the volume was at 25.2 million tons – data from Secex.

Specifically this month (18 producing days), Brazil exported 5.14 million tons, with a daily average of 285.93 thousand tons, still according to Secex. In case this pace continues, the volume sold to the international market is expected to amount 6.5 million tons, surpassing that verified in the same period of the year before (6.4 million tons).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: China imports from the US; international prices move up and premium in BR drops

The indication that China will partially buy soybean from the United States again boosted prices at CME Group – the November/25 contract returned to the highest level since early October/24. In Brazil, as expected, export premiums were pressed down. Still, values in the spot market remained firm this week.

Sellers in Brazil have preferred to trade new batches, aiming to guarantee the current price levels. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1.2% from October 23 and 30, closing at BRL 140.25 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 30. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 0.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 133.84 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) but upped 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar dropped 0.1% against Real in the same comparison, to close at BRL 5.378 yesterday.

 

Indonesia’s January-September palm oil exports rise 11.62% y/y

Indonesia exported 17.58 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in the January-to-September period, up 11.62% from the same period last year, the statistics bureau said on Monday.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. GAPKI, Indonesia’s palm oil association, usually releases its own figures at a later date, covering more products, and so has different export figures.

 

Argentine Court to Rule on Winning Vicentin Bidder, Clarin Says

An Argentine court will decide on the winning bid for control of Vicentin SAIC after two bidders made competing claims of securing enough support from creditors of the bankrupt Argentine soy export giant, Clarin reported.

Grains brokerage Grassi first announced Friday its restructuring offer met the minimum threshold of acceptance from a majority of creditors representing at least two-thirds of the $1.3 billion worth of unsecured debt in Vicentin, according to the newspaper.

But the rival Molinos Agro and Louis Dreyfus Co. consortium later said they submitted the winning offer and argued that support from Avir South SARL, Commodities SA and Vicentin Paraguay SA for Grassi’s offer are invalid, Clarin reported. Judge Fabian Lorenzini, who is overseeing the process, will decide the winning bid.

Vicentin, which entered bankruptcy protection five years ago after a $1.5 billion default, owns a 33% stake in the world’s biggest soy-processing plant in Rosario, Argentina.

 

Inpasa starts building new $445.2 million grain-ethanol plant in Brazil’s Goias state

Inpasa, one of Latin America’s largest grain ethanol producers, said on Friday it will invest 2.4 billion reais ($445.2 million) to build a new plant in Rio Verde, Goias, adding that construction has begun.

The new facility will be the company’s ninth and its first in Goias, strengthening the integration of agriculture, energy and industry, the company said in a statement, adding that it plans to use corn, sorghum and other grains.

The plant is designed to process 2 million metric tons of grain annually and will produce 1 billion liters of ethanol and 490,000 tons of DDGS protein feed for livestock, alongside other products.

Building in Rio Verde reflects a “strategic decision based on the municipality’s logistics infrastructure, the strength of regional agricultural production and the innovative nature of Goias agribusiness,” Inpasa President Eder Odvar Lopes said.

Founded in Paraguay in 2006, Inpasa has seven industrial units — five in Brazil and two in Paraguay — and is building another in Luis Eduardo Magalhaes, in Brazil’s Bahia state.

In Brazil, the company operates two plants in Mato Grosso state, two in Mato Grosso do Sul state, and another in Maranhao state. It boasts an installed capacity to produce 6.2 billion liters of ethanol per year and 3.3 million tons of DDGS.

 

China warns of growing foreign espionage in seed, grain sector

China’s Ministry of State Security on Monday warned that foreign intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to “illegally obtain” genetic data and seed resources from the country’s grain sector, calling the activity a threat to national food security.

“In recent years, foreign intelligence agencies have intensified their infiltration into China’s grain sector, illegally obtaining genetic data from crops such as soybeans, corn, and rice, posing a serious threat to the country’s food security,” the ministry said in a statement published on its official WeChat account.

“Beijing has long considered its food security to be a national security issue – similar to the way in which energy security has long been framed through a national security lens in Washington,” said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based Trivium China. “Posts like these from MSS are aimed to create suspicion in the public and encourage them to view foreign interest in ag and food with a skeptical eye.”

The ministry cited a case in which a Chinese businessperson, surnamed Zhu, sold restricted “parental seeds” – first-generation seeds used in hybridization experiments that are not allowed to be exported – to a foreign entity under a “joint seed cooperation” scheme. The ministry said Zhu hid the seeds in containers that were declared for other exports.

Zhu was sentenced to a year and a half in prison, while 17 others involved received administrative penalties.

In another incident, foreign consular staff and experts from “a certain country” reportedly conducted unauthorized field surveys in a major agricultural province, collecting data on crop yields and reserves.

They allegedly used counter-surveillance tactics, such as switching vehicles frequently and travelling on rural backroads to avoid detection.

The ministry said it took action in both cases and urged the public to report any suspicious activity through official hotlines or online channels.

 

 

 

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