Global Ag News for Nov 4th

TODAY – EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.11; Soyoil down 0.33.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 13 1/4 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal up $0.71; Soyoil down 0.56. For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 3/4 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal up $7.10; Soyoil down 0.57.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 68 yuan; Soymeal down 6; Soyoil down 50; Palm oil down 50; Corn up 15 — Malasyian Palm is up 101. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 101 ringgit (+2.03%) at 5071.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 3 were: SRW Wheat down 1,909 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,248, Corn up 11,262, Soybeans up 3,571, Soymeal down 468, Soyoil up 1,817.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday. East: Isolated showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday, snow possible. Temperatures above normal Monday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

The player sheet for Nov. 3 had funds: net sellers of 8,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 9,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Wednesday, traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: The Egyptian General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has purchased 360,000 tonnes of Russian, Ukrainian, and Romanian wheat in an international tender

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Pakistan issued a new international tender to purchase around 90,000 tonnes of wheat after cancelling a previous tender seeking the same volume
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 143,396 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Nov. 4.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

 DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.0% to 20.129M Bbl

• Analysts were expecting 20.031 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.107m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.108m

Brazil October Agriculture Exports by Volume: MDIC

• Soybean exports rose 36% in October from a year ago, corn fell 64% y/y
• Beef exports fell 49% y/y

China’s vegetable, grain supplies plentiful, say farm officials

China’s vegetable production is “basically normal” and it has enough wheat to meet demand for one and a half years, agriculture officials said on Thursday, in a further effort to reassure the public there’s no need to worry about shortages.

Supermarkets in various cities around the country saw flour, rice and other food items flying off the shelves.

Despite a recent increase in the price of spinach, lettuce and other leafy vegetables due to extreme weather, the area and output of other major varieties had slightly increased, Tang Ke, director general of the Department of Market and Informatization under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs told reporters.

China is expected to produce 750 million tonnes of vegetables this year, an increase of 1%, added Tang, providing a possible 1.5 kg a day per person.

Both the rice and wheat crops increased this year and the output of both of China’s main staples exceeded consumption, said Liu Lihua, deputy director at the ministry’s planting management department. China also has plenty of grain in state reserves, she added, with wheat stocks enough to cover consumption for one year and a half years.

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 1.930 Million Tns In November – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.930 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.964 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER – ANEC

Brazil 2021/2022 Soybean Crop Seen At 144.73 Mln T Vs 144.26 Mln T In Previous Forecast – Stonex

• BRAZIL 2021/2022 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 144.73 MILLION TNS VERSUS 144.26 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX

Argentina soybean production slightly up as moisture returns to northern Pampas

2021/22 Argentina soybean production is fractionally raised to 46.0 [41.2–50.4] million tons, reflecting better weather prospects and planting conditions (compared to recent weeks), despite not very favorable early season weather and low soil moisture throughout the eastern Pampas. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.3 million hectares, slightly above the Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario’s 16.2 million hectares, but below 16.5 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires. In October’s WASDE (12 October), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 51 million tons, down from its previous update of 52 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 44 and 48.8 million tons, respectively.

Wet weather is expected to return to the central and northern portions of the main Pampas later this week, after a month-long period of dryness during October. Northern Córdoba, Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero will all likely receive relatively heavy precipitation totaling 80 mm, up to 50 mm above normal, over the next two weeks. The drought relieving rainfall over Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero, in particular, should be notably beneficial, as soil moisture levels in those regions have been hovering around 5-year lows since June. On the other hand, some areas of Córdoba may rather struggle with localized flooding (albeit momentarily) if the inundation lasts longer than expected. The crops in the southern half of the Pampas, including western Buenos Aires, La Pampa and San Luis, should be faring well even without substantial precipitation, as soil moisture conditions there currently remain healthy thanks to the abundant early season moisture during September.

Indian Edible Oil Imports May Rise to Three-Year High in 2021-22

India’s edible oil imports will probably climb to 14m tons in 2021-22 from an estimated 13.5m tons a year earlier, Sunvin Group CEO Sandeep Bajoria said in a presentation prepared for a seminar.

• Data is for marketing year Nov. 1 to Oct. 31
• That will be highest since 2018-19 when imports were 15.3m tons
• India’s “massive reduction” in import duties on sunflower oil and soybean oil would result in higher imports of those over palm
• Indian government is trying to boost domestic vegetable oil supply and will likely take “strong measures” in the next five years
• Country’s vegetable oil imports will stop rising beyond 16m tons a year for next decade, Bajoria said

Global Food Prices Extend Surge to Pile on Inflation Pressure

Global food costs jumped last month, extending a march toward a record high and piling more inflationary pressure on consumers and governments.

A United Nations index tracking staples from wheat to vegetable oils climbed 3% to a fresh decade high in October, threatening even higher grocery bills for households that have already been strained by the pandemic. That could also add to central banks’ inflation worries and risks worsening global hunger that’s at a multiyear high.

Bad weather hit harvests around the world this year, freight costs soared and labor shortages have roiled the food supply chain from farms to supermarkets. An energy crisis has also proved a headache, forcing vegetable greenhouses to go dark and causing a knock-on risk of bigger fertilizer bills for farmers.

The price gains are stirring memories of spikes in 2008 and 2011 that contributed to global food crises. While it takes time for commodity costs to trickle to grocery shelves, officials in areas like North Africa and Turkey are already facing difficulties shielding shoppers from the blow.

October’s food-price gains were mostly driven by higher costs for grains and vegetable oils, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report on Thursday.

FAO Cuts Wheat Stocks Est.; Rising Input Costs May Curb Planting

World wheat stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 282m tons, down 2.2% y/y and below last month’s estimate for 284m tons, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday in a report.

• Production estimate was cut to 771m tons, down 6m tons from October
• World wheat trade seen rising to record 192m tons due to larger imports in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey to offset smaller domestic crops
• Egypt is also replenishing stocks
• Outlook for total grain stockpiles seen at 819m tons, up from an October estimate
• World corn production estimate lifted on Brazil, India and West Africa

WHEAT PLANTING:

• High wheat prices are likely to encourage large wheat plantings that are now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, but “rising input costs could curb wheat area expansions in some countries”
• READ: Historic Fertilizer Crisis Boosts Prices for Every Plate of Food
• Planting conditions mostly favorable in the EU, aside from Romania
• Dryness has delayed sowings in Russia’s Volga and Central regions and could spur a smaller area than last year
• U.S. plantings progressing at normal pace, but also face insufficient moisture

Indonesia Says It Won’t Halt Development to Slow Deforestation

Indonesia, the world’s top producer of palm oil, said that its development agenda must take precedence over the need to combat deforestation, tempering expectations around the nation’s climate change commitments.

“The massive development of President Jokowi’s era must not stop in the name of carbon emissions, or in the name of deforestation,” Environment Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar posted on her Twitter account on Wednesday, referring to the Southeast Asian nation’s head of state Joko Widodo.

The 100-nation pledge to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 “should not be interpreted as zero deforestation,” which would be “inappropriate and unfair” to Indonesia, she said. Indonesia, one of the 100 countries that signed the initiative, is instead committed to controlling emissions from forestry and land use to achieve carbon neutrality.

Russia to Slap Quotas on Fertilizer Exports to Safeguard Supply

Russia plans to impose a six-month quota on some fertilizer exports to safeguard local supplies and limit costs for farmers after the energy crisis sent nutrient prices soaring.

The government plans a decree to impose quotas on exports of nitrogen and complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said during a televised government meeting on Wednesday. The decision was taken after President Vladimir Putin urged measures to ensure supplies for local farmers. Interfax reported the quotas will start in December.

Russia’s move comes after Chinese authorities imposed new hurdles for fertilizer exporters amid growing concerns over surging power prices and food production.

European farmers have already voiced concern about securing fertilizer supplies for the spring, when the nutrients are applied to grain fields to boost yields and quality. A joint statement from French farm groups last month said nitrogen prices have tripled and there’s a risk of shortages to come.

China Forecasts More Cold Spells This Winter Due to La Nina

China’s weather office foresees frequent and strong cold spells this winter due to the La Nina phenomenon, according to a report on Thursday.

• Central and eastern regions will see temperatures drop from last year in January and February
  • Conditions in December in most parts of China will be stable, except for lower temperatures in the northeast and eastern Inner Mongolia
• Office expects La Nina to be weak-to-moderate this winter
• Cold snap over Nov. 4-8 likely to see temperatures drop by 8-10 degrees celsius in most parts of China, according to another statement