Global Ag News for Nov 6.24

TOP HEADLINES

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 32% Y/y in Season to Nov. 3

EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 7.76m tons as of Nov. 3, compared with 11.33m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 1.26m tons, Egypt with 692k tons and Morocco with 585k tons
• Barley exports were 1.7m tons, down 39% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 6.65m tons, up 8% y/y
• NOTE: Export data for Italy are not complete for the last seven weeks; export data for France aren’t complete since the beginning of the 2024 calendar year; export data for Bulgaria and Ireland aren’t complete since the start of the 2023-24 season

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 16; Soymeal down $4.70; Soyoil up 0.11.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 1.19.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans down 8 3/4; Soymeal down $4.70; Soyoil down 0.04.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.8% in SRW, down 11.3% in HRW, down 16.4% in HRS; Corn is down 11.4%; Soybeans down 24.7%; Soymeal down 23.6%; Soyoil down 5.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 16; Soyoil up 22; Palm oil down 22; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 111.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 111 ringgit (+2.31%) at 4917.

There were changes in registrations (-58 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 537 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 5 were: SRW Wheat up 3,983 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,622, Corn down 8,903, Soybeans up 7,811, Soymeal down 6,086, Soyoil down 2,840.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Soybean planting has reached the normal pace and the risk of significant late plantings of safrinha corn will now look to the potential for heavy rain at soybean harvest and corn planting. Otherwise, good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas got rainfall over the weekend and coming waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina continue to be awfully favorable for the time being.

Argentina: Another system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with more scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers continue over the rest of the week before the next system moves in over the weekend. Overall favorable conditions continue to be present in the country, though another drier stretch will be possible after this last system moves through and the threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

Northern Plains: A system moving through western areas will bring some showers through Wednesday and could return over the weekend for eastern areas. After a brief cooldown, temperatures should return to being above normal by the end of the week. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the last few days have meant a lot of meaningful rain, boosting soil moisture and improving crop conditions for wheat, but causing flooding and disrupting remaining fieldwork. An upper-level low will move into the Southwest on Wednesday, with showers building across the west for the end of the week which may include some heavy snow in Colorado. The low will move northeast through the region over the weekend.

Midwest: Waves of showers continue to move through the region through early Wednesday, building soil moisture but disrupting the last of the harvest. After a few days’ break, another system will move through over the weekend while another moves through in the middle of next week, both of which will bring more rounds of rain. The active pattern continues to favor reducing drought and building soil moisture before winter and should improve winter wheat conditions.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River had been very low, but the recent and forecast rain is likely to bump up levels in the upper basin this week and the lower basin next week. The River would need the Ohio Valley to get more rain to help bolster more long-term support, but will take the small bursts of help from the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers as well.

The player sheet for Nov. 5 had funds: buyers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC bought 290,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender for the grain, bringing the country’s strategic reserves to five months of consumption, the supply ministry said. The purchase was made up of 120,000 tons of Romanian wheat, 120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat and 50,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat, the ministry added.
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 124,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase a total 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Australia
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 121,790 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Nov. 7.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley via a tender. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Nov. 1 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.077m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 21.876m bbl vs 21.771m a week ago

 

Ukraine’s October seaborne grain and oilseed exports jump y/y, trader union says

Ukraine’s overall grain and oilseed exports by sea and river totalled 5.28 million metric tons in October, well exceeding the 3.13 million tons exported a year earlier, traders’ union UGA said on Tuesday.

Ukraine is a major global producer and exporter of grains, vegetable oils and oilseeds.

Last month’s volume included almost 4.8 million tons exported via the Black Sea and 495,000 tons of cargo shipped on the Danube river.

The union said further 515,000 tons of agricultural cargo were exported by rail and 142,000 tons by road.

UGA said Ukraine exported 1.65 million tons of wheat last month, 1.93 million tons of corn, 716,000 tons of soybeans, 475,000 tons of rapeseed, 458,000 tons of sunflower oil and 350,000 tons of barley.

Analyst APK-Inform said that soybean exports had reached new high, exceeding the previous record of 561,500 tons in October 2019.

The significant increase in soybean shipments since the beginning of the 2024/25 season reflected growing demand for the Ukrainian crop from key importers – the EU and Turkey, APK-Inform said in a report.

“In addition, many exporters were in a hurry to ship, expecting a decrease in trade after the introduction of the mechanism of minimum prices for the export of certain types of goods, including soybeans,” the consultancy noted.

Ukraine’s agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters last month that the new system of minimum export prices for the country’s key grain and oilseed shipments was likely to come into force at the beginning of December.

The Ukrainian agriculture ministry said this week that the country’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season had reached almost 14.7 million tons as of Nov. 4, against about 9.8 million tons by Nov. 6 last year.

 

Soybean planting 2024/25 advances and reaches 53.3% of the forecast area, reveals Conab

Sowing of the 2024/25 soybean crop in Brazil reached 53.3% of the expected area by Sunday, 3, the National Supply Company (Conab) said in its crop progress bulletin. The advance was 15 percentage points compared to the previous week.

Compared to the same period in the 2023/24 harvest, work is 4.9 percentage points ahead.

The state with the fastest oilseed planting is São Paulo, with 93% of the area already sown. This is followed by Mato Grosso (the largest producer), with 79.5%, and Mato Grosso do Sul, with 79%. Paraná has 74% of the work completed.

As for summer corn 2024/25, the area sown so far stands at 42.1%, up 5.3 percentage points on last week and 2.1 percentage points on the same period in the 2023/24 harvest. The state of Paraná has 97% of the area sown, followed by Santa Catarina with 90% and Rio Grande do Sul with 83%, according to Conab.

The 2023/24 wheat harvest, meanwhile, has reached 69.3% of the sown area, 13.3 percentage points higher than last week, but 2.5 percentage points behind the same period in the 2022/23 harvest. The harvest still needs to be completed in Paraná, where 91% of the work has been completed; in Rio Grande do Sul, with 44%, and in Santa Catarina, with 31%.

By Sunday, according to Conab, sowing of the 2024/25 rice crop had reached 54.9% of the area, an increase of 11.2 percentage points compared to the previous week and a delay of 2.5 percentage points compared to the same period last season. Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, has already completed 67% of the work.

Finally, the sowing of 2024/25 first crop beans had reached 36.3% of the expected area by Sunday, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to last week. Compared to the same period in the 2023/24 harvest, when 30.5% of the area had been worked, there was an increase of 5.8 percentage points.

 

India’s Oct palm oil imports hit 3-month high on festive demand, dealers say

India’s palm oil imports surged 59% in October to a three-month high compared to the previous month, as refiners boosted purchases to replenish stocks depleted by lower-than-usual imports in recent months and strong festive demand, five dealers said.

Higher purchases by the world’s biggest vegetable oils importer could lead to lower palm oil stocks in key producers Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting benchmark futures.

Palm oil imports jumped 59% in October from the previous month to 840,000 metric tons, according to estimates from dealers.

Demand for edible oils was robust during the festival season, prompting refiners to replenish their inventories, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader and broker.

Indians celebrated the Dussehra and Diwali festivals in the last few weeks, increasing the consumption of sweets and fried food.

Palm oil prices were competitive in August when many Indian buyers placed orders, said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

Soyoil imports in October fell 10% from a month ago to 344,000 metric tons, while sunflower oil imports jumped 57% to 240,000 metric tons, dealers said.

Delayed sunflower oil shipments in September arrived in October, which is reflected in the import numbers, a Mumbai-based dealer said.

The rise in imports of palm oil and sunflower oil lifted the country’s total edible oil imports in October by 34% to 1.42 million tons, as per dealers’ estimates.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Industry body the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) is likely to publish its data on October imports by mid-November.

  

US Agriculture Sentiment Rises in October: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 115 points in Oct. from 88 in Sept., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 19 points from Sept.
• Future expectations up by 30 points

 

 

 

 

 

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