Global Ag News for Nov 8.24

TOP HEADLINES

World Food Price Index Hits 18-Month High on Production Concerns

Global food prices hit the highest level in 18-months in October, with unfavorable weather raising production concerns for many commodities and threatening to keep consumer costs higher for longer.

An index of food-commodity prices created by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization rose to the highest since April 2023, according to data released on Friday. The gauge — that tracks grains, sugar, meat, dairy and vegetable oils costs — rose 2% in October, led by a jump in the cost of vegetable oils.

While the index tracks raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, the rise indicates that higher food prices may continue to hit consumers. Although food prices have rolled back from the record high witnessed in the wake of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, signs of tight supplies have fueled a fresh upward push in food prices.

Vegetable oil prices jumped the most last month on worries about lower production, with palm oil leading the rally.

Unrelenting rains in the northern hemisphere have also put pressure on grains, while dry weather raised concerns about production in Brazil, driving up sugar costs.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 4 3/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans up 25 1/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 2.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is up 17 1/4; Soybeans up 27; Soymeal down $2.80; Soyoil up 3.20.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.4% in SRW, down 12.1% in HRW, down 17.3% in HRS; Corn is down 9.2%; Soybeans down 22.1%; Soymeal down 23.3%; Soyoil up 1.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil up 84; Palm oil up 150; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 149.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 149 ringgit (+3.01%) at 5101.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 658 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 7 were: SRW Wheat up 1,255 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,561, Corn down 7,340, Soybeans up 4,861, Soymeal up 7,183, Soyoil up 11,551.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina, though a front that moves through early next week may have more limited showers and another stretch of drier weather will be possible afterward.

Argentina: A front is moving through the country on Thursday with scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers may continue before the next system moves in over the weekend and early next week. A stretch of drier weather is likely to return afterward. However, it is not expected to last more than a week and overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country for now. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

Northern Plains: A system in the Four Corners will spread some rain over the weekend for eastern areas. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well. Though systems are moving through, temperatures are forecast to remain near or even above normal through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: An upper-level low in the Southwest is building heavy showers across the west, which includes some heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico. The low will move northeast through the region on Saturday, with any snow changing to rain. Some areas in the southwest will see some heavy precipitation, helping to reduce drought and improve conditions for winter wheat. Another system will push through around the middle of next week, but may or may not produce much precipitation. Those that see snow will see temperatures stay lower while the rest of the region sees above-normal temperatures, even with the systems moving through.

 

Midwest: Recent rainfall and several waves of heavy rain have led to drought reduction across much of the region. Some flooding has occurred because of heavy rain though, especially in Missouri. After a few days’ break, another system will move through this weekend with scattered showers and another system is poised to move through next week with more rain chances. Temperatures continue to be above normal, even behind the systems moving through, allowing the rain to build soil moisture and improve conditions for winter wheat.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. But for the River to have sustained improvements, the River needs to see more precipitation into the Ohio Valley. Additional rain will fall with a system moving through this weekend and another system will move through next week. The region does stay active through the month of November, which may help.

Europe: Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula and may redevelop there and across France over the next few days as well. But the remainder of the continent is likely to be dry through the weekend. The recent dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too. A system may then try to dive south through the middle of the continent early next week and bring showers there. Models have showers expanding across most of the continent next week, being heaviest around Italy.

Black Sea: Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in the east. The window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes more likely than not. Wheat is going dormant mostly in poor condition. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

Australia: Very limited showers have been moving through the country lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next week, but the forecast is calling for continued spotty rainfall with these systems.

 

The player sheet for Nov. 7 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 7,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only
• CORN, WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 63,000 tons of feed wheat in a tender on Thursday
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Thursday purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from the United States or other worldwide origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 121,790 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest offer in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of wheat on Thursday was $292.14 a metric ton liner out.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley via a tender. The tender will be undertaken via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 13.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 2.04M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2.83M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Oct. 31.

• Corn sales rose to 2,832k tons vs 2,342k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 375k tons vs 411k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 2,037k tons vs 2,273k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 31, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 1.22m tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 1.46m tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 106k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following  shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 31, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Japan bought 2.3k tons of the -14.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• Mexico led in beef purchases

 

Argentina Soybean Area Est. Cut 2.1%, Buenos Aires Exchange Says

Analysts at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut the estimate for 2024-25 soy planting to 18.6m hectares (46m acres) from 19m after reviewing satellite images, according to a weekly report.

• Soy planting progress is 7.9%
• Improved soil moisture on farms after rains has improved the condition of wheat plants
• Wheat harvest progress at 12%

 

Brazil 2024 Wheat Crop Revised Down To 7.5 Million Tons From 7.9 Million Before – Stonex

• BRAZIL 2024 WHEAT CROP REVISED DOWN TO 7.5 MILLION TONS FROM 7.9 MILLION BEFORE – STONEX

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 2.45 Million Tns In November Versus 4.60 Million Seen A Year Earlier- ANEC

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.45 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 4.60 MILLION SEEN A YEAR EARLIER- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.56 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 1.93 MILLION TNS SEEN A YEAR EARLIER- ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.77 MILLION TNS IN NOVEMBER VERSUS 7 MILLION SEEN A YEAR EARLIER- ANEC

 

ProZerno Says Russia Winter-Crop Sowing Trails Last Year: Tass

Russian farmers have planted winter crops on 17.02m hectares so far, compared with 18.22m hectares at the same time last year, Tass reported, citing comments from ProZerno General Director Vladimir Petrichenko at a conference.

• That’s due to reductions in central Russia, the Volga region and Siberia, where sowing is already complete
• Farmers can still plant in southern Russia and the northern Caucasus
• Expects a smaller winter-grain harvest to push prices up at the end of the season

 

Russia Harvested Over 128m Tons of Grain in 2024, Premier Says

According to preliminary data, Russia has already harvested more than 128m tons of grain, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin says at televised governmental meeting.

• Russian Agricultural Minister Oksana Lut confirms 2024 wheat harvest forecast at 83m tons
• Total grain crop seen at 130m tons this year

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Output Will Exceed 19m Tons Next Year: MPOB

Malaysian palm oil production may exceed 19 million tons in 2025, but the second-largest grower will need a few years more to reach 20 million tons, Mohamad Helmy Othman Basha, chairman of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, said on the side lines of an industry conference.

• Production may not increase much faster, as there are no new plantations and replanting has been slow, he said
• The numbers of foreign workers are increasing, but it still needs time to recover fully
• NOTE: Malaysian palm oil output is on track to exceed 19m tons in 2024, the country’s plantation and commodities minister said in October

 

Palm Oil May Trade Around 5,000 Ringgit/Ton Through June: Mistry

Biofuel mandates and tight supply will keep palm oil around and above the 5,000 ringgit ($1,140) a ton level through June, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

• Prices will be very bullish in January to March, with demand getting a boost from Lunar New Year celebrations and Ramadan, Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd., said in slides prepared for a conference in Bali
• NOTE: Palm oil is already hovering around 5,000 ringgit/ton, hitting the highest since mid-2022 on Friday
• NOTE: Mistry’s latest forecast tops a September prediction for prices between 3,700 and 4,500 ringgit/ton through June
• Weather issues could push prices even higher, and global sustainable aviation fuel plans add to the bullish tone
• Rapeseed/canola prices should also be bullish, as European and Canadian crops are seen lower and there’s strong US demand for use in renewable diesel
• 2024-2025 vegetable oil supply and demand outlook:
  • Total supply estimated to increase by 3m tons, demand growth steady with an increase of 6.5m tons
• Palm oil supply seen growing by 2.5m tons, soybean oil may increase 3.5m tons, while rapeseed and other oils decline
  • Malaysia’s 2024 palm oil production seen better than expected
  • Indonesia’s 2024 palm oil production may be flat, with better growing conditions expected in 2025
• Prices for sunflower oil may be higher after January 2025
  • 2024 Black Sea crops are seen lower by almost 7m to 8m tons
• Global demand for use in energy to grow by 4m tons from a 3.5m ton increase in 2023-2024, due to rising capacity and usage in Indonesia, Brazil and the US
  • Food use seen rising by 2.5m tons versus 3m tons in 2023-2024
  • India’s soybean oil imports seen rising to 4.5m tons from 3.5m tons in previous season, while sunflower and palm oils decline
  • US exports of soybean oil seen strong

 

World Palm Oil Output May Rise by 2.3M tons in 2024-2025: Mielke

Global palm oil output may increase by 2.3m tons in 2024-2025, after declining by 1.3 million tons the previous year, Thomas Mielke, executive director of ISTA Mielke Gmbh, said at an industry conference in Indonesia.

• That’s due to a recovery in Indonesia and Central America
• Meanwhile, combined production of sunflower and rapeseed oil is seen declining by 3.8m tons in 2024-2025
• Detrimental weather in the Black Sea region has hurt sunflower crops

 

Indonesia 2025 Palm Oil Output May Rise 4% Y/Y: GAPKI

Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer sees production of 54.5m tons next year, up from an estimated total production of 52.5m tons this year, says Joko Supriyono, who is on the Advisory Board of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association known as GAPKI.

• Exports seen falling about 3% to 27.2m tons in 2025 from 28m tons this year
• Domestic consumption to increase to 27.4m-27.5m tons in 2025 from 24.4m tons-24.8m tons this year
• Palm oil use for biodiesel seen rising to 14m tons in 2025 from 11.6m tons in 2024
• Additional 3m tons feedstock will be needed for Indonesia’s B40 mandate
• Supriyono spoke at an industry conference in Bali
• NOTE: Indonesia’s use of palm oil for biodiesel has exceeded its use in food since 2023

 

India’s Edible Oil Imports May Drop to 15 Million Tons: SEA

India’s imports of edible oils will likely fall to 15m tons in 2024-2025 versus 16 million tons in 2023-2024, on record oilseed crops including soybean and rapeseed, according to B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Imports of vegetable oil will be lower as the world’s top buyer is seen to have 3m-4m tons of excess output of oilseeds, Mehta said on the sidelines of an industry conference in Bali, Indonesia
• Volume of imports will depend on price parity and availability of each oil in the market
• India’s edible oils consumption seen growing over the next 5 to 7 years
  • The country needs about 2.1m tons of edible oils a month or about 25.5m to 26m tons a year
• Palm oil imports are estimated to fall from 9.2m tons to 8.5m tons in 2024-2025 if prices remain at current levels
• India’s palm oil production is expected to increase, with plantations expanding to 100,000 hectares this year from 80,000 hectares last year
  • Crude palm oil production is expected to exceed 400,000 tons in 2024-2025, up from 350,000 tons in 2023-2024

 

China’s 2024 palm oil demand seen dropping 30% y/y, Cargill estimates

China’s demand for palm oil products in 2024 is estimated to drop 30% from a year earlier as high prices make it less attractive than soyoil and vegetable oil demand has stagnated, an executive at Cargill’s Chinese unit said on Friday.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices have gained over 30% so far this year amid falling output in top producer Indonesia and bullish sentiment over its plan to widen its biodiesel mandate, which may take away supply for export markets.

“This is the first year in many years that soybean oil is so cheap versus palm for extended period of time in China … both in the cash market and also in the futures market,” Ryan Chen, a director at Cargill Investments (China) Ltd, told the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference in Bali on Friday.

Cash refined soybean oil is about 1,000 yuan ($139.92) per metric ton cheaper than refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm oil in the main palm oil consuming regions in South China, Chen said.

Soybean oil for the January contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is also 1,000 yuan cheaper than palm oil, he said.

China’s palm olein imports in 2024 could drop by 45% from a year ago to 2.3 million tons, from 4.2 million tons in 2023, if the price spread between palm oil and soy oil persists, while next year’s imports are projected at 2.3 million to 2.4 million tons, according to Chen’s presentation.

Imports of other palm products such as refined palm stearin and palm oil mill effluent, a palm fatty acid distillate that is typically used for biodiesel, are likely to drop due to poor processing margins in China and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) export restrictions.

Palm oil’s share of China’s vegetable oil market is projected to fall to 12.8% in 2024 from 17.5% last year with palm oil consumption expected to fall below 2022 levels, when Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil exporter, banned overseas shipments, according to Chen.

 

French Corn Harvest 58% Complete vs 5-Yr Average of 89%: AgriMer

Some 58% of the French corn crop was harvested as of Monday, up from 38% the previous week but still lagging well behind the five-year average of 89%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• About 62% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, compared with a five-year average of 77%
• 78% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 87%
• Some 76% of French corn was in “good” or “very good” condition, steady from the previous week. That compares with 82% a year earlier

 

Bolivian Government Authorizes Imports of New GMO Soybean

Bolivian government authorized the import of the transgenic drought-resistant soybean HB4 for agriculture use, Rural Development Minister Yamil Flores said in a statement sent by text message.

• NOTE: Government also approved the use of the transgenic soybean Intacata in October this year to boost biofuel production and agroindustrial activities
• Flores said the government will hold meetings with agribusiness sectors about fuel supply to guarantee production

 

Mexico Likely Lost GMO Corn Panel Against US, Top Grower Says

• Arbitration panel checks if countries follow trade agreement
• Former head of agriculture chamber says Mexico could be fined

Mexico’s bid to prevent imports of genetically modified corn from the US lost in an arbitration process carried out under the countries’ free trade deal, according to the former head of Mexico’s agriculture chamber.

The panel’s decision would require Mexico to make modifications to its policy to comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement or pay fines for violating the terms of the agreement. Bosco de la Vega, the former head of the Mexican chamber, told local news channel Heraldo TV that the decision had not yet been made public. Such a decision would appease the concerns of the US corn growers who worried that Mexico’s policies could impact their exports.

The panel is “recommending Mexico comply with its obligations under the USMCA regarding Chapters 2 and 9, therefore Mexico loses in the panel and will have to make modifications, otherwise it will have to pay with tariffs for punitive damages,” Bosco de la Vega said in the interview.

Mexico’s policy officially banned the import of genetically modified corn for human consumption, but US growers were concerned that the policy could be expanded to include the corn destined for use as animal feed. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai requested formal talks on the issue in 2023, before the issue was passed onto a dispute resolution panel of trade experts as per the rules of the trade agreement known as the USMCA.

A spokesperson for Mexico’s agriculture chamber, the Consejo Nacional Agropecuario, known as CNA, and another from Mexico’s Economy Ministry said in response to questions from Bloomberg News that there was no official information about the panel’s outcome.

 

Malaysia Expects Heavier Rainfall as Monsoon Hits: Bernama

Some Malaysian states, including parts of Sabah, are expected to see 20% to 40% heavier rainfall than last year as the Northeast Monsoon hits, Bernama reports, citing the Malaysian Meteorological Department.

• NOTE: Sabah is among Malaysia’s biggest palm growing states
• The increased rainfall is due to the Northeast Monsoon season and the La Nina phenomenon coinciding this year, Bernama cited the department’s director-general Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip as saying Thursday
• Areas affected are Peninsular Malaysia’s east coast states, along with the northern and eastern parts of Sabah
• The Northeast Monsoon season was expected to have began Nov. 5 and to continue until March, bringing five to seven episodes of heavy rain, the department said in a separate statement Nov. 1

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Nov. 5: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Nov. 5, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought fell to 71% last week from 81% in the previous week
• Winter wheat down 5 percentage points to 57% in drought

 

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 767k tons in the week ending Nov. 2 from 738k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 61.4% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 15% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $23.66 per short ton, a decline of $10.17 from the previous week

  

 

 

 

 

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