Global Ag News for Oct 10.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina Wheat Crop Estimate Cut Due to Dryness: Rosario

There has not been significant rainfall for wheat crops so far in the 2024-25 season, despite recent storms, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a report.

• Production now seen at 19.5m tons, below an earlier outlook for 20.5m tons
  • Still, that remains 31% higher than the prior season
• Wheat is in a critical development period and is losing yield potential
• The dryness could also spur farmers to shift some of their intended corn plantings to soybeans instead, but sowing estimates for the two crops so far remain steady versus September

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil down 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 1/4 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, up 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $8.80; Soyoil down 0.99.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 23 in SRW, up 32 1/4 in HRW, up 30 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 36; Soymeal down $19.70; Soyoil down 0.33.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.3% in SRW, down 4.0% in HRW, down 9.8% in HRS; Corn is down 10.2%; Soybeans down 21.1%; Soymeal down 16.5%; Soyoil down 9.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil down 6; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 17.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 17 ringgit (-0.40%) at 4235.

There were changes in registrations (50 Soyoil). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 402 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 9 were: SRW Wheat down 2,665 contracts, HRW Wheat up 57, Corn down 7,274, Soybeans up 7,774, Soymeal down 5,020, Soyoil down 5,248.

 

Northern Plains: Mostly warm and dry weather is forecast through next week, though a quick burst of cooler air will move through early next week. Conditions continue to be favorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest. 

Central/Southern Plains: Warm and almost completely dry conditions continue through next week, though a brief burst of colder air will move through early next week that could have a few isolated showers with it. Overall conditions are favorable for corn and soybean harvest, but poor for winter wheat establishment. 

Midwest: A front will move through this weekend, bringing showers to the Great Lakes into early next week, as well as a burst of colder air that could linger for a few days before the warmth returns, especially in the east. Conditions are mostly favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment in some areas that missed out on Helene’s rainfall two weeks ago. 

Brazil: The late start to significant rain in central Brazil has caused a slow start to soybean planting. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks. A front is moving into southern Brazil with good rainfall, but this front will make it north into central Brazil that should finally have producers planting in earnest with the true start to the wet season as showers continue next week. That will be about two weeks late, however, and puts a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops when they get planted in early 2025 if producers can’t catch up with their soybean planting. 

Argentina: A system spread showers over northern areas over the last few days. But southern areas continue to miss out on the rainfall, with poor conditions for reproductive wheat and corn planting. Another front will move through southern areas late this week with streaks of showers into next week, and another system will move through later next week with chances for good rain as well. Producers need this to be heavy, soaking rain to reduce the drought and increase corn planting. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that as well if rains don’t start picking up in the next couple of weeks.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 9 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 500 soybeans, and sellers of 1,500 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 126,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to undisclosed destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 30,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• ALGERIA EXCLUDES FRENCH WHEAT: Algeria excluded French companies from a wheat import tender this week and required that participating firms did not offer French-origin wheat, in apparent fallout from renewed diplomatic tensions between Algiers and Paris, trading sources said. Algeria is one of the world’s biggest wheat buyers and for many years France was by far its largest supplier.
• BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 115,050 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Oct. 10.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Oct. 3.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 1,291k
• Soybean est. range 800k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,369k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 5.6% to 22.154M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.288 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.038m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.018m

 

Russia’s 2024 grain quality higher than last year’s – agriculture minister

The quality of Russian grain in 2024 is higher than last year’s despite unfavorable weather conditions prevailing during cultivation and harvesting, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Luth said.

“Our domestic demand for all grain crops is 85-87 million tonnes a year. In this respect, food security is fully guaranteed. At the same time I would like to note that the grain quality of the new harvest is higher than last year’s. A third of wheat is in grades 1-3,” Luth said during a government hour at the Federation Council on Wednesday.

Currently, cereal and leguminous crops have been harvested from 91% of the sown area, with more than 120 million tonnes threshed, she said. “Taking into account farmers’ technological sophistication, we are counting on a worthy harvest at the end of the year which will allow us to fully provide for the domestic market and maintain a high export potential in both raw materials and processed products,” she said.

Good results are expected for other crops as well, Luth said. “In particular, the oilseed harvest will reach 28 million tonnes, sugar beets 42 million tonnes, and the organized sector will harvest 7.4 million tonnes of vegetables and 7.3 million tonnes of potatoes. For fruit and berries, we anticipate 1.7 million tonnes, including 1.6 million tonnes of apples due to a good apple harvest in the south and in the North Caucasus,” she said.

Regarding the sowing of winter crops, Luth said that this had already been carried out over an area of more than 13 million hectares. In central regions, sowing is more difficult due to low soil moisture. “Nevertheless, according to our plans, the total winter crop area will be about 20 million hectares, which corresponds to last year’s level,” she said.

 

EU Grain Production Seen at 258.5m Tons for 2024: Strategie

The European Union’s grain production for the 2024-25 season is seen at 258.5 million tons, according to analysis firm Strategie Grains.

• That’s little changed from the prior month’s forecast
• Soft wheat production forecasts were unchanged from the previous estimate at 114.4m tons, the lowest in twelve years
• Corn production is seen at 58.1m tons, also largely unchanged from the previous forecast and the third lowest level of production in a decade
  • “Production in France is expected at a good level but recurrent rains are leading to fears of yield losses and quality deterioration”: Strategie
  • Central and southeastern Europe also saw poor harvests
• Barley production is seen at 50.6m tons, a rebound from last year’s crop but still below the five-year average of 52.1m tons

 

Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Stockpiles Rise to 2.01m Tons: MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles rose to 2.01m tons in September from revised 1.883m tons in August, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Palm oil production fell to 1.822m tons from 1.894m tons in August
• Palm oil exports rose to 1.543m tons from revised 1.529m tons in August

 

Turkey Introduces Tariff Quota for 1m Tons of Corn Imports

Turkey allows max. 1m tons of corn to be imported at 5% customs duty until year-end, according to presidential decree published on official gazette. Regular 130% duty to be imposed on imports above 1m tons

Decision to help ensure supply-demand balance and prevent speculative price movements, Trade Ministry says in statement. Ministry cites projected decrease in corn supply in both Turkey and the world.

 

Algeria could buy 3 million tons of Russian wheat this season, Russian trade mission says

Algeria’s purchases of Russian wheat could reach 3 million metric tons this season after a big part of 510,000 tons bought by Algeria’s state grains agency in a tender on Oct. 8 was awarded to Russia, Russia’s trade mission in Algeria said.

“If the current trend continues, Russian grain supplies to Algeria could reach 3 million tons by the end of the season,” the trade mission said in a statement on Wednesday.

The statement comes after Algeria excluded French companies from a wheat import tender and required that participating firms did not offer French-origin wheat, according to trade sources, in apparent fallout from renewed diplomatic tensions between Algiers and Paris.

Algeria is one of the world’s biggest wheat buyers and for many years France was by far its largest supplier.

Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, aspires to become an agriculture superpower with President Vladimir Putin ordering a 50% boost in agricultural exports by 2030.

The trade mission said Algeria had bought 978,000 tons of wheat from Russia in July-September, the first three months of the current export season.

The North African country is among the top five importers of Russian wheat, along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey.

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who won a second term last month, visited Russia in June 2023 for a meeting with Putin, who said ties between the two countries were “strategic”.

 

Urea, Phosphate Prices Strengthen; Milton to Affect Operations

Urea prices were up at NOLA and in several international markets, fueled by India’s latest tender and escalating tensions in the Arab Gulf. Hurricane Milton is set to disrupt Mosaic’s phosphate assets and Port of Tampa operations this week, pushing phosphate prices higher. Falling Chinese corn prices further pressure nutrient affordability, likely keeping the marginal producer out of the market into 2Q25.

 

Urea, Ammonium Sulfate, Phosphate Prices Firm

A strengthening barge market at New Orleans (NOLA) pushed inland urea prices $25-$30 a short ton (st) higher at many locations, with increases also reported in several international markets. NOLA urea firmed to $330-$332/st for confirmed trades at midweek, reflecting the upper end of last week’s range, with urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices also rising in some US regions. AdvanSix on Oct. 9 raised ammonium sulfate prices $15/st in the Midwest and at its Hopewell, Virginia production facility, with prices also climbing in Brazil during the week. NOLA phosphate barges strengthened $10-$20/st from last week, with inland terminals firming $20 at many locations.

 

 

 

 

 

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