Global Ag News for Oct 11.22
France Cuts Outlook for 2022 Corn, Sugar and Wheat Harvests
This year’s French corn harvest is now seen at 11.4m tons, down from a September outlook for 11.6m tons, its agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.
- Average yield of corn raised for grain is likely to be the lowest since 2005, after summer heat and drought damaged fields
- Sugar beet crop estimate cut to 32.9m tons, from 33.3m tons
- Soft-wheat crop estimate cut to 33.7m tons, from 34.1m tons
- Barley crop estimate kept steady at 11.4m tons
- Rapeseed crop estimate also steady at from 4.5m tons
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 13 1/4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.06; Soyoil down 1.08.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 44 1/2 in SRW, up 43 1/4 in HRW, up 35 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 14; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal up $0.44; Soyoil down 1.62.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 20 1/2 in HRW, up 21 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 19 3/4; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil up 3.42.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 20% in SRW, up 26% in HRW, up 2% in HRS; Corn is up 18%; Soybeans up 3%; Soymeal down 0%; Soyoil up 24%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 31 yuan; Soymeal down 46; Soyoil up 46; Palm oil up 70; Corn up 40 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 144 ringgit (-3.75%) at 3693.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 5 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 247 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 10 were: SRW Wheat up 4,760 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,183, Corn up 10,411, Soybeans up 14,824, Soymeal down 725, Soyoil down 6,338.
Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Lake-effect showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Wednesday.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.
The player sheet for Oct. 10 had funds: net buyers of 19,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Sunday. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 tonnes, but Algeria often buys considerably more in its tenders than the nominal volume sought. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Oct. 11, with offers having to remain valid until Oct. 12.
- VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: A Tunisian state agency issued an international tender to purchase up to 9,000 tonnes of vegetable oils, European traders said. Either crude degummed soyoil or crude degummed rapeseed oil is sought. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Oct. 11. The oils can be sourced from optional origins. Delivery is sought in one consignment between Nov. 21 and Dec. 5.
- CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa, European traders said on Tuesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 94,140 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.
- WHEAT TENDER: The World Food Programme, a United Nations agency, issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender was Sept. 28, with an award expected on Sept. 30.
- BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import a total of 495,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Oct. 11, they said.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan is seeking 120,000 tonnes of wheat in an international purchasing tender with a deadline for offers on Oct. 11, a government source told Reuters.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,100 tonnes of rice sourced from the United States, Vietnam and other origins, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Oct. 19, they said.
Ukraine Grain Exports Top 6.4 Million Tons, But Backlog Persists
Ukraine has shipped more than 6.4 million tons of grain and foodstuffs from Black Sea ports through an export corridor that opened in early August, but the number of ships awaiting inspections remains high.
Outbound vessels need to be inspected in Istanbul under terms of the export deal, and more than 80 ships still need to be cleared there, according to the latest lineup posted by the United Nations. That equates to about a quarter of the total ships that have departed Ukraine so far.
The Joint Coordination Centre in Turkey said late Friday that it’s working to improve capacity. The wait for inspections has increased to an average of nine days from the time ships arrive in Istanbul, and the center urged shipowners to follow procedures to ready for the process. The congestion has helped support benchmark Chicago wheat futures.
“The JCC hopes that this congestion will soon be eased with the cooperation of the shipping industry,” it said.
The agreement that formed the corridor was signed in late July and is due to expire in mid-November, unless the parties renew it.
Some Ukrainian ports remain blocked by Russia’s invasion. The nation’s total grain exports for the 2022-23 season are running 37% below last year, government data show.
Monday Strikes Haven’t Impacted Ukraine Grain Shipments: UN
“We have observed no impact of the strikes on the operations of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” Ismini Palla, a UN spokesperson for the initiative, says by email.
- “Ships have moved as per normal schedule today”
Brazil 2022/23 Soy Planting 9.6% Done as of Oct. 6: AgRural
Compares with 3.8% a week earlier, and 10.1% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.
- Summer corn seeding was 38.8% complete, vs 34.1% a week earlier and 37.9% a year before
Brazil Soybean Planting Advances Amid Irregular Rain
Brazilian farmers moved ahead with their soybean planting work for the 2022-2023 growing season amid irregular rain in the key state of Mato Grosso, say analysts at AgRural in a research note. The area planted with the oilseeds grew to 9.6% as of Oct. 6, up from 3.8% a week earlier but behind the 10.1% planted on the same date a year earlier, AgRural says. Low soil moisture in Mato Grosso is limiting the pace of planting in that state, while constant rain and high soil moisture levels in the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul are slowing planting in those states, AgRural says.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Harvesting advances in BR; production is forecast to set a record
Despite the recent rains in many wheat-producing regions in Brazil, the harvesting is in progress, and the national output is estimated to set a record. This scenario led Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) to raise the estimates for wheat exports and reduce imports estimates.
As for prices, Cepea surveys show that quotations followed opposite directions in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and the wholesale market (deals between processors). While the values paid to farmers have been influenced by the expectations for a record harvest in Brazil, in the wholesale market, quotations have increased slightly, pushed up by the rains, which hampered crop activities in some areas.
ESTIMATES – In a report released this month, Conab has estimated the Brazilian wheat output in the 2022/23 season at 9.35 million tons, a slight 0.1% down from that reported in September but 21.9% up from that in 2021/22 and a record. Productivity estimates were also revised down (slightly) compared to that forecast in September but is still expected to hit 3.08 tons/hectare, 10.2% higher than that in 2021/22. The area allocated to wheat crops continued estimated at 3.03 million hectares, 10.6% up from that last season.
Thus, Conab has reduced imports estimates by 200 thousand tons compared to that forecast in September, to 6.1 million tons between Aug/22 and Jul/23, volume 0.3% higher than that last crop. The domestic availability is expected to total 16.18 million tons, and domestic consumption, 12.28 million tons. Exports are forecast at 2.7 million tons between Aug/22 and Jul/23. Thus, the estimates for ending stocks have been revised down to 1.19 million tons by July/23.
CROPS – In Paraná, 42% of the wheat crop had been harvested by October 3rd, according to Deral/Seab. Of the crops still developing, 73% are in good conditions; 23%, are in average conditions; and 4%, in bad conditions.
In Rio Grande do Sul, crops are currently in good conditions. According to Emater/RS, 3% of the wheat crops had been harvested in RS by October 6, the same as that in the same period last crop and within the average of the last five years.
PRICES – Between Sept. 30 and October 7, the prices paid to wheat farmers in Santa Catarina dropped by 2.66%; in Rio Grande do Sul, by 1.3%; and in Paraná, by 0.09%. In the wholesale market, values rose by 0.96% in Paraná, 0.74% in Santa Catarina, 0.56% in São Paulo, and 0.27% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the same period, the US dollar decreased by 2.86%, closing at BRL 5.225 on Friday, 7.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS – According to Secex, Brazil exported 369.78 tons of wheat in September. In the last 12 months, 3.14 million tons were exported, and this year, 2.6 million tons have been shipped. As for wheat imports, last month, Brazil imported 373.39 thousand tons, 30.4% less than that from August and 16.6% down from that in September last year. Last month, most of the wheat imported (80.62% of the total) came from Argentina, at the average import value of BRL 2,281.45/ton. In the last 12 months, imports totaled 5.95 million tons.
Kazakhstan Grain Harvest at 21.6m Tons: Agriculture Minister
About 99.5% of the planted area, or 15.9m hectares, has been harvested, the Agriculture Minister Yerbol Karashukeev tells government meeting, according to his presentation.
- Average grain yield is 13.5 centners/hectare
- Kazakhstan may harvest more than 19m tons of grain in net weight, Interfax reports, citing agriculture ministry
Indonesia’s Aug palm oil exports at 4.33 mln T- association
Indonesia exported 4.33 million tonnes of palm oil products in August, data from industry group the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed on Tuesday, up from 2.71 million tonnes in July.
Malaysia Sept. Palm Stockpiles +10.5% M/m to 2.32M Tons: MPOB
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, rose 10.5% to 2.32 million tons in September from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
- Palm oil exports +9.3% m/m to 1.42m tons
- Crude palm oil stock: +24.8% to 1.28m tons
- Crude palm oil production +2.6% m/m to 1.77m tons
Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Exports to India -21% M/m: Details
Malaysia’s palm oil exports to India fell 21% to 0.19 million tons in Sept. from a month earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board posted on its website.
- Exports to India -21% m/m to 185,061 tons, -50.4% y/y
- Exports to China +108.5% m/m to 264,089 tons, +12.7% y/y
- Exports to EU -36% m/m to 83,386 tons, -38.6% y/y
Brazil unusually re-exports fertilizer amid storage shortage – port authority
Brazil, which normally relies on fertilizer imports to boost crop yields, is re-exporting cargoes as there is nowhere to store them following a surge in inbound shipments earlier this year, according to the port authority of Antonina on Monday.
In an unexpected turn of events, an importer will re-route 24,700 tonnes of DAP fertilizer that had arrived from Jordan but will now be shipped to Turkey over the next few days, the authority said.
The move follows the re-export last month of a 17,000-tonne phosphate fertilizer cargo that had sat at an Antonina customs storage facility for two months coming from Egypt.
The Egyptian consignment was re-routed from Antonina, a port located in southern Brazil, to the United States on Sept. 22, a situation the authority described as unprecedented.
“Four to five months ago we were talking about a possible fertilizer shortage,” said Jeferson Souza, an analyst with Agrinvest. “Now we have nowhere to put product.”
The rare fertilizer re-exporting deals expose Brazil’s logistics woes at a time of ample supplies and slow farmer buying.
No taxes will apply on re-exported cargos as these remained at the port’s customs area, Antonina said.
The threat of fertilizer shortages escalated after the war in Ukraine, which sparked sanctions against major supplier Russia and caused prices to surge earlier this year. Prices have since abated some.
Brazil’s import rush during the first months of 2022 rose port storage costs and demurrage, a penalty cargo vessel operators pay when facing unloading issues, Antonina said.
The nation, which relies on imports for 85% of its fertilizer needs, brought in some 30.77 million tonnes of in the nine months through September, a record.
Nationwide, Brazilian ports are “full” of fertilizer imports that have not been moved internally, trade group Anda told Reuters last week.
Anda also confirmed expectations that fertilizer deliveries to farmers could fall between 5% and 7% in 2022 as farmers either delayed or decided not to buy after prices jumped.
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