Global Ag News For Oct 16.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China holds off on soybean purchases due to high Brazil premiums, traders say

• China seen buying about 9 million tonnes for Dec-Jan shipment
• High Brazilian premiums may prompt China to use state reserves
• Uncertainty lingers over U.S.-China soybean talks

China has yet to secure much of its soybean supply for December and January as high premiums for Brazilian cargoes discourage buyers, a development that could prompt Beijing to tap state reserves to meet near-term needs, three trade sources said.

China still needs to purchase about 8–9 million metric tons of soybeans for December-January shipment after covering cargoes through November with hefty purchases of Argentine beans in recent weeks, the sources said. Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to shut out U.S. supplies.

“China is not buying U.S. beans because of the trade war and Brazilian beans are too expensive,” said one oilseed trader at an international trading company which supplies agricultural products to China.

“China might end up using its own reserves for the year-end and early next year, before the new South American harvest comes in.” he said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.20.

 

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil up 1.14.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 3/4 in SRW, down 12 in HRW, down 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $3.30; Soyoil up 1.51.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.8% in SRW, down 13.0% in HRW, down 7.6% in HRS; Corn is down 9.0%; Soybeans up 1.1%; Soymeal down 10.2%; Soyoil up 28.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 32 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 8; Palm oil up 10; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 3.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 3 ringgit (-0.07%) at 447

There were changes in registrations (58 Soyoil). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 15 were: SRW Wheat up 141 contracts, HRW Wheat up 615, Corn down 6,238, Soybeans down 10,590, Soymeal up 3,646, Soyoil up 4,0

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 15 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth will persist through the foreseeable future across the Canadian Prairies and most U.S. crop regions, delaying the onset of frost in many areas in a favorable trend for crop progress
• SOUTH AMERICA: A round of rainfall from Southern into Southeast Brazil will benefit coffee development this week before drier conditions expand
• AFRICA: Short-term rains could temporarily slow the cocoa harvest along the Ivory Coast/Ghana, but dry weather will then overspread the region
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Moderate rains through the next couple weeks over Indonesia/Malaysia will be favorable for palm oil development
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Trans-Atlantic Dipole (TAD) is likely to plunge into a negative phase event by December-February, which would support the potential for a mild winter in Europe and portions of Asia

 

 Australia rains will pick up considerably in the back half of October as cooler temperatures arrive

• Widespread warmth this week will give way to a regional cold front next week in Australia
• Aside from Western Australia, rains will arrive in most areas of the continent through the next 1-2 weeks
• The increase in rains along with cooler temperatures will be favorable for Australia wheat/rapeseed development

WET SPELLS IN ARGENTINA, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL’S CROP REGIONS

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in Central and North  Argentina
• Dry spells in South, Center West Brazil

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers continue across the region through Friday as a system moves along a front that has stalled off to the south. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest this week, and progress should be slower.

Central/Southern Plains: A front that has stalled in the region will be active as another system moves along it and pushes it eastward on Saturday. Showers will be much more consistent farther north, though. Periods of precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

Midwest: A stalled front in the region has a weakening system moving north of it across the Great Lakes with showers on Wednesday. Another system will move north into Canada on Thursday, pushing the front eastward this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms to develop across the east. Overall, showers may be limiting harvest in the northwest, but most areas should have good weather to continue work. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

Delta: Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region. Though the Lower Mississippi River got a small boost in water levels from rain that fell in the Ohio Valley last week, water levels are declining again. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through on Saturday may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

Brazil: Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall is underway. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. Consistent fronts moving north from Argentina are providing good moisture for corn and soybean establishment in the south.

Argentina: Though it has been a little drier across the south and central, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. Another front should bring showers to northern areas for Thursday and Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable.

Europe: Isolated showers continue over eastern Europe for the next few days. Drier conditions in the northwest are a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, though not concerning enough as a system is forecast to move through these areas this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well.

Black Sea: Only isolated showers have been occurring this week and drought is still a major problem for the region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment.

 

The player sheet for 10/15 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 131,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 136,000 tons
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a second private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,00

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 10 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.079m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.628m bbl vs 22.72m a week ago

 

NOPA September US soybean crush tops estimates at 197.863 mln bushels

The U.S. soybean crush jumped in September and hit the fourth highest level for any month on record, according to a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report released on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which account for around 99% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 197.863 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 4.2% from the 189.810 million bushels crushed in August and up 11.6% from the September 2024 crush of 177.320 million bushels.

Last month’s crush had been expected to dip to 186.340 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters. Estimates ranged from 176.520 million to 195.000 million bushels, with a median of 184.400 million bushels.

September’s average daily processing pace of 6.595 million bushels was the second-strongest daily crush rate on record, according to NOPA data.

Numerous soy processing plants restarted operations in September following seasonal maintenance downtime that was scheduled ahead of the U.S. harvest. Farmers are estimated to be about half finished gathering what is expected to be a bumper U.S. crop.

U.S. soybean crush capacity has swelled in recent years as processors expanded facilities and built several new ones to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers. NOPA membership has also grown to include nearly all U.S. processing facilities.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of September 30 dipped to an nine-month low of 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% from stocks of 1.245 billion pounds at the end of August but up 16.6% from the 1.066 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to dip to 1.220 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.141 billion to 1.285 billion pounds, with a median of 1.223 billion pounds.

 

India Sept. Oilmeals Exports Rise to 299,252 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 299,252 tons in September from 276,834 tons in August, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 192,262 tons from 174,397 tons in August
• Soymeal exports rose to 81,851 tons from 80,233 tons in August
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 24,133 tons from 21,424 tons in August

 

Kazakhstan harvested 25.9 million tons of grain by Oct 16, ministry says

Kazakhstan, the largest grain producer in Central Asia, had harvested 25.9 million tons of grain from the new harvest as of October 16, the Ministry of Agriculture said.

Approximately 15.5 million hectares of grain and legumes have been harvested, accounting for 96.8% of the total area.

Kazakhstan had forecast a grain harvest of 24 million tons this year.

In 2024, Kazakhstan harvested a record 26.7 million tons of grain, including 18 million tons of wheat, the highest in the past 10 years.

Kazakhstan traditionally supplies grain to neighbouring Central Asian countries, as well as to Iran and Afghanistan.

 

French Wheat, Corn Export Outlooks Improve on EU Sales: AgriMer

France’s soft-wheat exports are now seen at nearly 15m tons in the 2025-26 season that began in July, up from a previous estimate of 14.7m tons, FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

• That’s up 44% y/y
• The outlook for exports to European Union nations was raised to 7m tons from 6.7m tons
• Stockpiles projection at 2.8m tons, down from an estimate of 3.6m tons last month

BARLEY:

• Exports in 2025-26 seen at 5.7m tons, up from 5.6m tons
• Stockpiles at 1.9m tons, down from previous outlook of about 2.2m tons

CORN:

• Exports for 2025-26 raised to 5.1m tons from 4.8m tons
• Outlook for exports to EU states raised to 4.6m tons from 4.3m tons
• Stockpiles seen at 1.9m tons, down from previous outlook of 2.2m tons

 

Russia Sees Grain Export Potential of 50M Tons in 2025/26 Season

Russia has already harvested about 132m tons of grain, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says at televised meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

• Russia maintains 2025 grain harvest forecast at 135m tons, including 90m tons of wheat
• Russia has harvested 91% of grain crops

 

Russia resumes wheat supplies to Indonesia, state agriculture watchdog says

Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, resumed shipments to Indonesia in October, the state agriculture watchdog said on Wednesday, after a pause since January due to negotiations between the two countries over access for Russian grains.

The watchdog said that Indonesia’s Quarantine Agency agreed in August to extend safety certificates for Russian grains, paving the way for the supply of 52,000 metric tons of wheat in October.

Russia’s agriculture export agency, Agroexport, estimated grain supplies to Indonesia, mostly wheat, at 1.3 million tons in 2024. It noted that before the new agreement, Russia had supplied only 123,000 tons of grain this year, all in January.

Russia is seeking to diversify wheat exports to Asia from its traditional customers in the Middle East but is likely to face stiff competition from the United States, supplies from which are set to grow following trade deals with Asian countries.

Russia’s wheat exports have fallen sharply this year due to global oversupply and low prices, which, along with local factors such as bad weather, a strong rouble and high fuel and fertiliser costs, made wheat cultivation less profitable.

Indonesia is one of the world’s top wheat importers, alongside China and Egypt. The country has joined the BRICS Plus group of major emerging economies, which also includes China, India and Russia.

Agroexport said that a free trade agreement currently being negotiated between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and Indonesia will boost trade through a gradual phase-out of Indonesia’s import duty on grains.

“Receiving a zero tariff on wheat deliveries to Indonesia would be a good support for our exporters,” said Agroexport’s head, Ilya Ilyushin. Russian officials and businessmen are due to visit Indonesia for agriculture trade talks on October 17.

 

Grassi Begins to Gather Creditors in $1.3 Billion Vicentin Case

An offer by Rosario grains brokerage Grassi to restructure $1.3 billion of Vicentin SAIC’s unsecured debt has started getting approval from creditors, Chief Executive Officer Mariano Grassi said.

• Grassi, which needs to gather minimum approval thresholds by the end of the month, said the offer has so far been accepted by ~30% of 1,600 creditors holding almost 60% of the $1.3 billion
• NOTE: Bidders need more than half of the number of creditors representing at least two thirds of the value of the debt to be able to take over the distressed soy exporter
• NOTE: Grassi, which forced the case into the current cramdown process, has two main rivals, Bunge Global and a partnership of Louis Dreyfus and Molinos Agro; they haven’t lodged their proposals yet

 

Strong demand and steady returns drive the expansion of Brazil’s corn acreage for 2025/26

2025/26 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 138.4 [128.9–148.2] MILLION TONS

2025/26 Brazil total corn production is preliminarily estimated at 138.4 million tons. This near-record production outlook is mainly driven by increased Safrinha corn area amid strong domestic demand and export prospects, with yields expected to return to a more normal level from last year’s record. Our estimate is above the USDA’s projection of 131 million tons, which estimates total corn sowings at 22.60 million hectares (mha) (vs. LSEG’s 22.78 mha) and national-level yield at 5.80 tph (vs. LSEG’s 6.07 tph). Brazil’s national agriculture agency (CONAB) recently forecasted total corn area, yield, and production at 22.6 mha, 6.11 tph, and 138.3 million tons, respectively, during its Agriculture Outlook event held on 18 September.

Brazil’s first-crop corn area is expected to rise slightly to 3.83 mha (up 1.6%), while Safrinha corn will increase more significantly to 18.33 mha (up 5.0%), primarily due to expansion in the domestic corn ethanol sector, which diversifies the country’s ethanol production beyond its conventional sugarcane base. New corn ethanol plants continue to be built in Mato Grosso and Goiás, including the recent Planalto Bioenergia investment project announced on September 03, which aims to complete the construction of two new ethanol facilities next year. These developments ensure strong domestic corn demand and provide incentives for farmers planting more corn. Current soil moisture conditions are overall healthier than last year across core crop regions, and no excessive rainfall is forecast through the end of the month, which facilitates rapid planting progress. The economic and physical conditions support steady crop returns despite high production costs.

In Brazil, the first crop corn is typically sown during September-December and harvested in February-May. The second-crop corn is planted in January-March and harvested in July-August. Timely soybean planting is essential, as the second-crop corn is planted immediately after soybean harvest; any delay in soybean crop progress may result in second-crop corn planting outside the optimal planting window, negatively affecting yield potential. As of October 11, Brazilian farmers have completed 31.2% of first-crop corn planting and 11.1% of soybean planting, both ahead of last year’s pace (28.8% for corn and 9.1% for soybeans). According to LSEG’s long-term weather outlook for December through February, released on September 09, there is a high probability of La Niña conditions, indicating above-average rainfall in northern Brazil and possible dryness in southern regions. While the impacts of La Niña on Brazilian crop yields are not statistically significant —unlike Argentina, where a strong relationship between ENSO episodes and crop yield levels exists—current weather outlooks indicate little risks to Brazil crop production. We will closely monitor crop progress, soil moisture, and forward weather to update Brazil corn area, yield and production as needed.

 

 

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