Global Ag News For Oct 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Says He’s ‘Worked Our Magic’ on Deal to Lower Beef Prices

President Donald Trump said his administration had struck an agreement to bring down the price of beef for consumers during an event in the Oval Office on Thursday.

Trump didn’t provide details on what the federal effort entailed, but conceded that beef was one area where his efforts to fight inflation hadn’t paid enough dividends.

“We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that’s going to bring the price” down, Trump said. “That would be the one product that we would say is a little bit higher than we want it, maybe higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked our magic.”

The president’s comments came days after he hosted Argentinian President Javier Milei at the White House to discuss trade and financing to help bolster the country’s economy. The US is a major importer of Argentine beef, though shipments are subject to an annual quota before expanded tariffs kick in.

Ranchers have culled more cows due to drought and high costs, bringing the US cattle herd as of July to the lowest mid-year count on record in data going back to 1973. US shoppers paid on average a record $6.318 a pound for ground beef in August, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

More pain could come for consumers as the US Agriculture Department forecasts total US beef supply dropping further in 2026.

Foreign cattle supplies have also been constrained as imports from Mexico remain on pause to prevent the spread of the deadly New World Screwworm. Meanwhile, beef shipments from major producer Brazil are subject to US tariffs.

The administration’s effort on beef follows an earlier push to lower egg prices, which became an inflation bellwether that highlighted consumer worries over high costs in grocery stores. The US responded by stepping up egg imports and boosting support for chicken farmers.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $2.70; Soyoil down 0.40.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $4.70; Soyoil up 0.52.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 12 1/4; Soymeal up $6.30; Soyoil up 0.98.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.7% in SRW, down 12.6% in HRW, down 7.7% in HRS; Corn is down 7.7%; Soybeans up 1.6%; Soymeal down 9.1%; Soyoil up 26.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal down 33; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil up 8; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 6.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 6 ringgit (-0.13%) at 4514.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 16 were: SRW Wheat down 410 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,556, Corn up 3,700, Soybeans up 6,222, Soymeal up 2,574, Soyoil up 6,842.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 16 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Increasing cyclones will bring rains to the Canadian Prairies, Northern U.S. Plains, and eastern U.S. Corn Belt into next week, and rains could return again late in the month
• SOUTH AMERICA: A round of cool temperatures will sweep across Brazil through the next 10 days in a favorable trend for coffee development
• EAST ASIA: A mild and dry winter is likely for most of China, with cold risks relative to normal limited to the southern regions
• SOUTH ASIA: The prospects for heat risks and dry conditions over northern India during December-February could lead to downside risks for wheat, though it will be offset by the excessive monsoon to some extent
• TELECONNECTIONS: A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Phase 4-6 event in early November could finally introduce cold risks to North America, with milder conditions likely to persist in Europe

 

The North America winter may be a volatile one with strong storms and episodes of considerable cold/warmth

What to Watch:

• Frequent cold risks are most likely over the U.S. Northern Plains this winter, while the southern/eastern coastal regions may be on the warm side
• An active storm track is likely to extend along the northern U.S. frontal zone during December-February, with drier conditions to the south
• The proximity of nearby cold risks to the major U.S. winter wheat areas, combined with a dry outlook for the region could lead to downside risks from winterkill

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers continue across the region through Friday as a system moves through the region. Another system is likely to move through Sunday and Monday with some showers as well. Temperatures will be quite variable as the systems move through. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest, and progress should be slower.

Central/Southern Plains: A system moving through the Northern Plains will push a cold front through the region through Saturday with variable showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

Midwest: A stalled front in the region made for some showers on Wednesday. Another system will move north into Canada on Thursday, pushing the front eastward this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms to develop across the east. Recent rainfall may have been stalling harvest in the northwest, but most areas have had good weather to continue work this week. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

Delta: Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region and water levels on the Lower Mississippi River are declining again. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through on Saturday may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

Brazil: Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall continues. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. A front will move through southern areas through Saturday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall that continues to be favorable for that region. The front will move into central Brazil this weekend and may have a tendency to move too far north next week, which could leave some central areas drier for several days.

Argentina: Though it has been a little drier across the south and central, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. A front is bringing showers to northern areas for Thursday and Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable. Fronts and systems do seem to be heading toward a downtrend in frequency, which may need to be monitored over the next few weeks.

 

The player sheet for 10/16 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC was believed to have purchased about 400,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an international tender that closed on Wednesday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, Future of Egypt, bought two French wheat cargoes on Wednesday, the latest in a series of purchases from France, two sources familiar with the matter said.
• SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally purchased about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil in an international tender also seeking up to 18,000 tons that closed on Thursday.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales For Week of Oct. 9

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts.

USDA’s export sales report for the week ending Oct. 9 was originally scheduled for Friday but is delayed indefinitely due to the government shutdown

• Corn est. range 1,200k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,450k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 975k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.4% to 22.628M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.628 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.074m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.079m

 

Carney expects to meet senior China leaders, sidesteps question on tariffs

Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday said he expected to meet senior Chinese leaders soon but sidestepped a question about dropping tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for relief from Beijing’s duties on canola.

Carney, who discussed trade issues with Chinese Premier Li Qiang last month, said Canada was restarting what he called a broad engagement with Beijing. Bilateral ties over the past few years have been poor.

Canadian officials say Carney could hold a first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a trip to two Asian summits later this month.

“I expect to meet the senior Chinese leadership in the coming month or so and we’ll continue those discussions, and we’ll see where the trade relationship evolves,” Carney told a televised press conference.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, a year after Canada said it would slap a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

China’s ambassador to Canada said over the weekend that if Ottawa lifted the measures against vehicles, Beijing would drop the duties on canola.

Carney, asked whether such a deal might happen, said the two nations were talking about “a much broader range of issues than single sectors and single trades”.

He added: “It’s naive to take a relationship that is broader, and can broaden, and to boil it down to two things … There are a deeper set of conversations that are going on, so it’s not that simple.”

Canada, he said, would also have to take into account how the United States, which is locked in a trade war with Beijing, might react to any move Ottawa made on auto tariffs.

 

US in Talks With S. America for Soybean Crushing, Rollins Says

US is in talks with some South American nations over the possibility of doing “some crushing there for our soybeans and others,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says.

• The US is not solely waiting to reach a soybean-related agreement with China, Rollins tells reporters at the White House
• “For the long term, we are opening up these markets so that we are not so reliant on countries like China,” she adds, without naming the nations that could partner with the US
  • Rollins says she spoke this morning with two countries that are “interested in purchasing”; she did not specify which countries or which products they’d purchase

 

Argentine Corn Crop Estimates Oct. 16: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn area estimate maintained at 7.8m ha
  • Planting advanced to 29.9% complete from 25.6%

 

Cold snap could hit Argentina’s bumper wheat crop, exchange says

The arrival of a cold front over Argentina’s agricultural heartlands next week could affect wheat yields for the 2025/26 season, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday,

The exchange currently predicts a harvest of 22 million metric tons.

Argentina is one of the world’s leading wheat suppliers and the exchange’s prediction, if it proves true, would make this season’s crop the country’s second-largest in its history.

“Weather forecasts warn of a cold snap next week which, depending on its intensity and distribution, could affect the crop during its critical stages,” the exchange said.

Argentine farmers will harvest their wheatfields from November through January.

The exchange said that corn farmers had meanwhile planted 29.9% of the estimated crop area, and maintained its prediction of a 61 million-ton harvest.

 

Australia’s West Coast Grain Crop May Hit Record, Survey Shows

Western Australia, the nation’s biggest grain-producing state, may harvest a record-breaking crop this year thanks to strong weather and a shift from livestock to cropping, potentially exacerbating a global wheat glut.

The 2025 harvest could reach 25.5 million tons, nearly half of which would be wheat, according to a survey in the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia’s October report. That represents an upgrade on the September estimates and only slightly below the 2022 record crop, which came in just over 26 million tons.

GIWA said the shift away from sheep herding toward cultivating wheat, barley, canola and other grains had helped boost yields, as well as positive weather across the state. Concerns in the September report around the potential for spring frost damaging the harvest had failed to materialize, the authors said.

“In the higher rainfall zones, as more farmers get out of sheep there has been a significant shift from pasture to crop and the cropped area has increased by about 15% in the last four years,” the association said.

Australia is a major exporter of wheat and barley to Asian economies, including Indonesia, Thailand and China, where it is used in everything from noodles to bread. However, prices are struggling in the midst of a global oversupply, with a positive outlook for wheat crops across all major exporting nations sending US futures to their lowest in five years over the past month.

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Slide 37% Y/y So Far This Season

Ukraine’s exports of grain and legumes slumped 37% to 7.9m tons since the start of the marketing season on July 1, from a year earlier, according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

• As of Oct. 17, the shipments include:
• 5.6m tons of wheat, down 21% y/y
• 977,000 tons of barley, down 38% y/y
• 1.14m tons of corn, down 68% y/y

 

US Asks South Korea to Increase Soybean Purchases: DongA Ilbo

The US has asked South Korea to increase soybean imports during trade negotiations, DongA Ilbo newspaper reports, citing un unidentified South Korean government official.

• US soybeans account for half of South Korea’s total soybean imports
• Separately, Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, who is visiting US to attend G20 and for tariff negotiations, declined to comment on the report, according to Yonhap News

 

Canada’s Anand Discusses Canola, EVs in Meeting China’s FM

Canada’s Foreign Minister Anita Anand met her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing and discussed agriculture and agri-food products, including canola, as well as seafood, meat and electric vehicles. according to a Canadian government statement.

• They’ve identified key areas to work together constructively, including the environment, energy and health
• They’ve also agreed that regular and candid communication is essential to build trust and address respective concerns
• Wang Yi says China is willing to step up communication with Canada to push for resolving of each other’s legitimate concerns, according to a statement posted by China’s Foreign Ministry

 

French Corn Harvest Speeds Up, Wheat Sowing Progresses: AgriMer

France’s corn harvest was 56% complete as of Monday, up from 37% in the previous week, and slightly faster than the five-year average of 50%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 60% of the corn crop was rated in good or very good condition, down from 62% the previous week and well below the 78% level at a similar time last season
• Some 27% of the soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, up from 5% the previous week
  • That’s faster than the 10% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 22%
• Winter-barley crop was 45% planted, compared with 10% the previous week and a five-year average of 33%

 

Indonesia Charts Roadmap for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Mix

The energy and mineral resources ministry is developing a roadmap for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending, with a gradual increase to 5% by 2035, says Edi Wibowo, director of bioenergy on Friday.

Govt proposes a plan to require international flights from Jakarta to Denpasar, Bali to use 1% SAF starting next year: Wibowo

 

US generated more biofuel blending credits in September, EPA says

The U.S. generated more renewable blending credits in September than August, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

About 1.23 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in September, compared with about 1.22 billion in August, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to 660 million in September from 546 million in the prior month, according to the data.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

 

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