Global Ag News For Oct 22.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Administration to Resume Farmer Aid Halted by Shutdown

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said President Donald Trump’s administration will resume distributing $3 billion in aid from the Farm Service Agency that had been halted as a result of the three-week-long government shutdown.

“President Trump will not let the radical left Democrat shutdown impact critical USDA services while harvest is underway across the country,” Rollins said in a social media post Tuesday. “Thursday, USDA will resume Farm Service Agency core operations, including critical services for farm loan processing.”

Rollins also said that agriculture risk coverage and price loss coverage payments — financial guarantees for farmers to protect against fluctuations in crop prices — and other programs would resume operating.

The move to resume some activities at USDA demonstrates the flexibility the White House has over which government functions continue running during a shutdown to achieve their political goals.

Trump has sought to exact maximum pressure on Democrats during the impasse, halting funds for projects in states that voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, while resuming farm aid and continuing to process economic data important for calculating the increase for elderly Americans’ Social Security benefits.

The Agriculture secretary told Fox Business Tuesday that $3 billion would be distributed to farmers, adding that the administration would soon announce an additional aid plan to address “China compromising our soybean farmers’ access.”

Trump allies have for weeks teased an aid program as a way to provide temporary assistance for farmers rattled by price fluctuations and a Chinese blockade of US soybeans until market conditions improve. Rollins signaled that a package won’t be announced as long as the government funding lapse, now in its 21st day, continues.

Despite a temporary US-China trade truce, Beijing has turned to other exporters, including Brazil and Argentina for the crop. Trump has said the move is a negotiating tactic by China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, to gain leverage in broader trade talks.

Farming communities, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the 2024 election, have seen export markets for many crops dissipate and federal-safety net programs shrink during the president’s second term. The administration had said previously that it was working on providing assistance to farmers, with Trump floating the use of revenue from his tariffs on foreign imports to fund that plan.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil up 0.16.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 13 3/4; Soymeal up $5.90; Soyoil down 0.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 13 in HRW, down 17 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 31; Soymeal up $12.80; Soyoil up 1.32.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.6% in SRW, down 13.4% in HRW, down 8.4% in HRS; Corn is down 8.3%; Soybeans up 3.5%; Soymeal down 6.7%; Soyoil up 27.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 23 yuan; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil down 74; Palm oil down 98; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 51.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 51 ringgit (-1.13%) at 4454.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 21 were: SRW Wheat up 2,885 contracts, HRW Wheat down 432, Corn up 1,883, Soybeans down 17,022, Soymeal down 8,347, Soyoil up 15,006.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 22 OCTOBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: According to the LSEG Long-Term Outlook, frequent cold risks are most likely over the U.S. Plains this winter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions will support spring crop plantings this week across Brazil, while the weather will turn wetter from the next week
• BLACK SEA: Mild temperatures and wet conditions over the next 10 days will help to alleviate soil moisture In Ukraine and SW Russia, though it may disrupt planting progress
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Tropical Strom Fengshen will make landfall in Central Vietnam later today, bringing extreme rainfall and flooding (200-350 mm) in Da Nang and surrounding areas
• TROPICS: Tropical Strom Melissa developed over the Caribbean Sea and will impact Jamaica and the Greater Antilles later this week

SHORT-TERM WEATHER WILL SUPPORT US SPRING CROP HARVEST COMPLETION

What to Watch:

• A mild warming trend with increasingly dry conditions will prevail over the next 7-8 days in the U.S. Midwest
• Wet conditions are likely to arrive late next week followed by potential cold spell, which will naturally close the optimal harvest window

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers fell are exiting to the east early Tuesday while some breezy winds hang on in the Dakotas. Recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. Drier weather later this week should be more beneficial. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, leaving the window a bit short.

Central/Southern Plains: The region should be drier for the next couple of days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system is forecast to move into the region Thursday through Saturday with perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

Midwest: A system continues across the north with isolated showers through maybe Thursday. It is producing some strong winds as well. Southern areas may get some showers later this week and weekend. A stronger and more wrapped up system is forecast for next week that could bring several days of rain and strong winds. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress.

Delta: A front moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain not only in the Delta region, but also in the Midwest, which will help to boost water levels on the Mississippi River. However, the boost is not forecast to be all that impressive or last long with low water levels currently causing issues for transportation.

Brazil: A front moved through the bulk of the country with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. The front is moving north Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler and drier weather behind this front will keep most areas dry for much of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil early next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

Argentina: Another front will return to southern areas late Tuesday and only slowly move north and spread showers through the country the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or two and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

Europe: A system that moved into western areas this weekend is sending waves of showers across the continent throughout the week and into next week as well. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

Black Sea: A system brought scattered showers to the region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer. Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

Australia: The trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A couple of systems will move through this week with scattered showers. But they may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

China: Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. However, frosts have not been an issue just yet. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

 

The player sheet for 10/21 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: A South Korean importer consortium comprising the Feedmill Group (MFG) and Cargill Agri Purina purchased about 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender.
• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 157,717 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the U.S. in an international tender that closed on September 30.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 17 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.09m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.666m bbl vs 22.628m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 8.6%

September placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.97m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year declines
• Estimates range from -11.9% to -6% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Oct. 1 seen falling by 2% y/y to 11.37m head
• Marketings seen falling 4.2% y/y
• USDA’s cattle on feed report is scheduled for Friday but may be delayed due to the government shutdown

 

IKAR Raises 2025 Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast to 88m Tons

Russia’s wheat production is now seen at 88 million tons, up from a previous outlook of 87.5m tons, IKAR Director General Dmitry Rylko said by email.

• Cites better estimate for continental Russia
• Russian wheat export forecast for 2025-26 season held at 44.1m tons
• IKAR raised its estimate for Russian corn output to 15.3m tons from 15m tons
  • Corn exports now seen at 4.1m tons, up from 3.8m tons previously

 

No new US soy sales to China, nothing being loaded, say US soy groups

There are no new sales of United States’ soybeans to China and nothing is expected to be loaded in coming weeks, according to information from U.S. soy industry groups American Soybean Association (ASA) and the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

Harvested soybeans are not moving to export hubs, and instead going to storage, representatives for the two U.S. soy industry groups told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday.

Some farmers could face financial collapse if there are no changes to the situation soon, they added.

“There is nothing on the books,” said Randy Miller, a soybean farmer and board member for the U.S. Soybean Export Council. “And the bigger factor is that it (soy) is not going anywhere, because flows are normally designed to move from the Midwest to other channels, but now they are backing out.”

China has been shunning U.S. soy amid a renewed U.S.-China trade war ignited by President Donald Trump. The Asian country is the biggest soy buyer in the world and it has relied on South America for its supplies, even as Brazil and Argentina are running low on stocks.

There is probably enough storage capacity in the U.S. for the soybeans currently, but it would be a problem if the current crop needs to be carried over to next season, the industry groups said.

But they fear for the financial situation of many farmers.

“The farmers that are already on the edge, financially, they (are) not going to be able to stand this,” said Morey Hill, a farmer and director at the American Soybean Association.

“The young farmers I am most worried about. They could over-finance, and then not be able to pay what they owe,” he said.

They said they do not have clarity yet about eventual steps by the administration to extend some funding for farmers.

 

Trump Sees Successful Xi Meeting, But Allows It Might Not Happen

US President Donald Trump predicted an upcoming meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, would yield a “good deal” on trade — while also conceding that the highly anticipated talks may not happen.

“I have a great relationship with President Xi. I expect to be able to make a good deal with him,” Trump said Tuesday during a lunch with Republican lawmakers in the White House Rose Garden. “I want him to make a good deal for China — but it’s got to be fair.”

While Trump foresaw the sit-down as being “very successful,” he said the possibility remains that it could fail to materialize. The two leaders are scheduled to meet later this month at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

“Maybe it won’t happen,” Trump said. “Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say, ‘I don’t want to meet, it’s too nasty.’ But it’s really not nasty. It’s just business.”

The date and time for the anticipated leaders meeting has not yet been announced, though the US leader said it would be in about two weeks.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to huddle with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend ahead of the Trump-Xi talks to discuss a deescalation of trade tensions, with China recently announcing fresh curbs on the export of rare earth materials and Trump threatening to dramatically increase tariffs on Chinese goods.

Trump has said both subjects — as well as fentanyl, soybeans, and Taiwan — are likely to be on the agenda for the talks.

 

Oil Trade Group Reverses Stance on Bill to Expand Ethanol Sales

The American Petroleum Institute told federal lawmakers that it opposes legislation expanding sales of fuels with higher ethanol blends, a reversal for the oil and gas trade group.

API said in a letter to Congress Tuesday that “legislative, regulatory, and market developments” over the past eight months have promoted it to change its position on the bill, called the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025.

“Refiners are now navigating shifting federal compliance structures, a patchwork of state mandates, and a biofuels marketplace that is uncertain,” API Chief Executive Officer Mike Sommers wrote in the letter.

The bill would allow for gasoline blended with up to 15% ethanol, called E15, to be sold year round in more states. US gasoline is normally blended with smaller amounts of the renewable fuel.

API’s reversal underscores how big oil and farm lobbies are parting ways on biofuel policy after becoming more aligned in recent years. A proposal by the Environmental Protection Agency to significantly boost the amount of fuel made from crops and animal waste that’s required to be blended into gasoline and diesel has drawn opposition from crude processors. Large fuelmakers have also opposed to a proposal that would force them to make up for any mandate waivers given to small refiners.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 7.3 Million Tons In October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.34 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 7.31 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.09 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.01 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.57 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 6.46 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Indonesia Jan-Sept biodiesel consumption rises to 10.57 mln kilolitres, minister says

Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption from January to September stood at 10.57 million kilolitres, its energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on Wednesday, up nearly 10% from 9.61 million kilolitres a year earlier.

Indonesia raised the mandatory palm oil content in diesel fuel to 40% this year, up from the previous level of 35% in an effort to reduce the country’s reliance on fuel imports.

The government allocated 15.6 million kilolitres of biodiesel for the palm-based fuel blending mandate, known as B40, for this year.

Indonesia is aiming to raise the biodiesel blending mandate to 50% in the second half of 2026, which Bahlil said could help the country stop gasoil imports completely.

 

India-US Trade Deal May See Tariff Rate Cut to 15-16%: Mint

India and the US are closing in on a trade deal that could reduce the current tariffs for Indian exports to 15-16% from 50%, Mint reports, citing three unidentified people aware of the matter.

• India may agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil, the people told the newspaper
  • India may also allow more non-genetically modified US corn, soymeal into its markets
• Queries emailed to Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal, commerce secretary Rajesh Agarwal, the spokespersons of ministries of commerce and external affairs, and the USTR remained unanswered: Mint
  • US Embassy in New Delhi defers to the USTR on all inquiries regarding trade negotiations: Mint

 

Senators Advance $23 Million-a-Year Grain Oversight Measure

The Senate Agriculture Committee approved a measure that would renew the federal government’s authority to regulate grain inspections and marketing in a unanimous vote Tuesday.

• The reauthorization (H.R. 4550) is one of several components typically covered in a five-year farm bill that Congress needs to pass before the end of the year after updating other agricultural programs in the Republican tax cut and spending law (Public Law 119-21) earlier this year
• The programs covered by the law lapsed on Sept. 30
• The House voted in September to authorize $23 million annually for the grain and oilseeds oversight measure from fiscal 2026 through 2030
• Panel members adopted a substitute amendment that removed language addressing user fees covering grain grading services and added language directing the agriculture secretary to solicit nominations for the Grain Inspection Advisory Committee

 

Japan Govt. Finalizing Purchase Package for Trump Visit: Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government began finalizing a purchase package — including US pickups, soybeans and gas — to present to President Donald Trump in trade and security talks next week, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified people.

• Takaichi won’t commit to any new defense spending target at the meeting
• Japan could trim purchases of Brazilian soybeans to make room for more US imports
• Japanese officials will also present a list of candidate investment projects under the $550 billion deal
  • Both governments will review before Trump makes a final pick
• White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment: Reuters

 

U.S. corn ethanol exports distorted by government payments, ISO executive director says

SAO PAULO, Oct 21 (Reuters) – Government payments to corn growers in the United States are distorting the price of U.S. corn ethanol exports and skewing competition, the executive director of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) said on Tuesday.

Direct support payments and internal supports given to the U.S. corn industry total $130 billion, ISO Executive Director Jose Orive said at an industry event run by Agribusiness consultancy Datagro in Sao Paulo.

While those payments are currently approved by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of corn being destined for ethanol exports by the United States is going to warrant a revision, Orive said.

“The price at which they situate their ethanol is distorted and makes the competition (skewed),” Orive said.

 

Chinese importers commit to buying Brazil deforestation free beef, says NGO

A powerful association of Chinese beef importers has committed to buying Brazilian meat free of deforestation in an unprecedented move, according to Brazilian NGO Institute for Forest and Agricultural Management and Certification (Imaflora) on Tuesday.

Imaflora, which is launching a new certification called Beef on Track (BoT) during an industry event in Brasília, said 100 importers belonging to China’s Tianjin Meat Association have made a commitment to purchasing at least 50,000 tons of beef bearing the BoT certification by June 2026, the equivalent of 2,500 20-ton containers.

The association accounts for 15% of all Chinese beef imports from Brazil, Imaflora said.

 

China Races to Secure Corn Harvest After Heavy Rains Rot Crops

Epic rains in northern China have disrupted the harvest and left crops rotting in the fields, pressuring grain supplies at a time when trade relations are fraying and imports have shrunk.

Top corn-producing provinces including Henan and Shandong have endured the longest and heaviest rainy season in six decades, according to the National Climate Center. The northern region accounts for at least 30% of China’s total production of the grain, but some fields are too soaked to harvest, according to state media. And there’s a risk that corn already gathered could turn moldy.

Most of China’s corn is used for animal feed, though it’s also consumed in snacks and processed into ethanol for fuel blending. The country has become increasingly dependent on its own output, reducing purchases from countries including the US in a bid to bolster food security.

That’s created vulnerability at a time when climate change is making the weather increasingly unpredictable. Imports so far this year have collapsed 93% to less than 1 million tons. “There isn’t much of a buffer against production losses,” Sitonia Consulting Co. said in a note.

Farmers have rushed to sell their newly harvested crop rather than put it in storage and wait for its quality to worsen. That’s pressured prices, which have fallen over 3% this month in Henan. The government has also mounted a response, allocating 484 million yuan ($68 million) to support grain drying and field drainage, among other measures.

Other crops have also been affected, from soybeans to peanuts. China’s harvest of its autumn grains is only about 70% complete, so the full impact of the wet weather on both quality and quantity has yet to be determined.

Although the persistent downpour in the north and west of the country is drawing to a close, tropical storms gathering in the south could affect rice and sugarcane crops. The next round of plantings is also drawing attention. Winter wheat is usually sown in northern China from this month, and the farm ministry has launched a 60-day campaign to combat the impact of flooding.

 

2026/27 Ukrainian rapeseed production is set to raise due to stable acreage and higher yields

2026/27 UKRAINE RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 3.4 [3.2-3.6] MILLION TONS, UP 5.3% FROM LAST SEASON

2026/27 Ukrainian rapeseed production is set at 3.4 [3.2-3.6] million tons (mmt), 0.2 mmt above our estimate for 2025/26. Production estimate for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 3.3 million tons.

Due to uncertainties associated with the war since February 2022, many farmers shifted from growing cereals to oilseed crops, as rapeseed became more economically viable and logistically manageable during this period. Additionally, farmers increased the cultivation of rapeseed in Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts to compensate for losses sustained from occupied agricultural lands.

However, recent unfavorable dry weather conditions have posed challenges for fieldwork and resulted in delays in rapeseed planting. Over the next two weeks, warm temperatures and increased precipitation are anticipated nationwide through the end of October, which will improve planting conditions. Consequently, we forecast the harvested area for rapeseed to remain comparable to last season’s figures, at 1.22 million hectares.

The extended weather forecast indicates increased precipitation and moderate temperatures throughout Ukraine for the winter season. Based on this favorable outlook, the estimated yield potential for 2026/27 is projected at 2.8 tons per hectare, resulting in a total production forecast of 3.4 million tons, an increase of 5.3% compared to the previous season.

 

US Plans to Open Land for Cattle Ranching as Beef Prices Soar

The Trump administration will soon roll out a “big package” intended to bolster US beef production as consumers struggle with a surge in prices, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

“What we are going to do is to incentivize to open up new lands, to make it easier to become a rancher, to build more processing plants around the country, so there aren’t just a handful in the middle of the country,” Rollins said in an interview with CNBC Tuesday.

She added that the US had over the years sent a lot of its beef production to countries like Brazil, and that now was the time to reverse course: “We’ll be able to begin to move the onshoring of beef back to America.”

Americans find themselves paying far more for beef as the herd has shrunk to its smallest in decades after years of depressed prices, droughts and escalating costs forced farmers to cull more cows. No meaningful rebound is expected before 2027 or 2028, making President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to bring down grocery costs more challenging.

A ban on imports of cattle from Mexico over sanitary concerns and an increase in tariffs on purchases from Brazil are tightening supplies further.

Trump said earlier this week the US would bolster beef imports from Argentina as part of efforts to bring down prices for consumers, a move that drew criticism from rancher lobbying groups. Rollins, however, told CNBC that imported volumes from the South American nation “will not be very much” relative to total consumption.

Senator Deb Fischer, a Nebraska Republican, criticized the Argentine proposal on Tuesday, pointing out that the US beef market is “is the one bright spot in our struggling ag economy.”

“I strongly encourage the Trump administration to focus on trade deals that benefit our ag producers—not imports that will do more harm than good,” she wrote in a a post on X.

 

 

 

 

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