Global Ag News For Oct 23.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia’s B50 Biodiesel Plan Likely to Be Delayed

Indonesia’s plan to implement a B50 biodiesel mandate in 2026 is likely to be delayed to 2027, due to funding constraints and an unfavorable palm oil-gas oil spread, Citi analyst Gan Huan Wen says in a note. Speculation over the B50 biodiesel mandate has supported crude palm oil prices in recent months, and is expected to continue to buoy prices in the near term, with CPO prices seen hovering between MYR4,300/ton and MYR4,500/ton through year-end, he says. However, Gan maintains a bearish sector view and advises investors to take profit on SD Guthrie at the current share-price level. Citi raises its CPO price assumptions to MYR4,300/ton for 2025 from MYR4,200/ton and MYR4,200/ton for 2026-2027 from MYR4,000/ton.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil up 0.60.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 17 3/4; Soymeal up $9.00; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 3/4; Soybeans up 35; Soymeal up $15.80; Soyoil up 1.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.5% in SRW, down 12.3% in HRW, down 7.3% in HRS; Corn is down 7.3%; Soybeans up 4.0%; Soymeal down 5.7%; Soyoil up 27.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 31 yuan; Soymeal up 44; Soyoil down 40; Palm oil down 110; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is up 18.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 18 ringgit (+0.40%) at 4474.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 22 were: SRW Wheat up 105 contracts, HRW Wheat down 965, Corn up 7,116, Soybeans down 5,998, Soymeal down 7,382, Soyoil up 8,468.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 23 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The recent forecasts confirm cold spell along the eastern U.S. in late October, but relatively mild conditions in key spring crop regions of the U.S. Midwest
• SOUTH AMERICA: A strong cold front will move across the Pampas in the coming days, posing the risk of wheat crop damage due to heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts
• EUROPE: Active weather with high rainfall will affect most EU countries over the next 5 days, delaying planting and spring crop harvests.
• AUSTRALIA: Heat will expand along Queensland over the next 5 days, affecting soil moisture levels across the sugarcane areas
• TROPICS: Recent forecasts show Tropical Storm Melissa could intensify to a major Category 3 Hurricane, impacting primarily Jamaica but also the Greater Antilles later this week

 

Northern Plains: A few quiet days are forecast in the region after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain and drier weather is favored afterward for a bit.

Central/Southern Plains: The region has been drier for the last few days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system will move into the region Thursday through the weekend with scattered showers and perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

Midwest: A system continues across the Great Lakes with isolated showers through Thursday. It has produced some strong winds as well. Cooler weather moving into the region will produce areas of frost for the next couple of mornings. Southern areas may get some showers Friday into the weekend. A stronger system may develop for early next week that could bring rain, strong winds, and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

Delta: Rainfall over the weekend in the Delta and Midwest has helped the drought, but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with showers and another early next week could as well. Some limited benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the river until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

Brazil: A front has essentially cleared the country. Cooler and drier weather will keep most areas dry for the rest of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

Argentina: Another front will spread showers through the country for the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

Europe: A system that moved into western areas this weekend continues to send waves of showers across the continent throughout the week and into next week as well. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

Black Sea: A system brought scattered showers to the region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer. Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

 

The player sheet for 10/22 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 3.1% to 21.919M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.666 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.112m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.09m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales For Week of Oct. 16

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts.

• USDA’s export sales report for the week ending Oct. 16 was originally scheduled for Thursday but is delayed indefinitely due to the government shutdown
• Corn est. range 800k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,275k
• Soybean est. range 700k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,200k

 

Trump says he expects to reach deal with China on trade, soybeans, possibly nuclear arms

• Bessent says China’s controls on rare earths ‘unworkable’
• Hoping to iron out issues so Trump-Xi meeting starts on positive note, Bessent says
• USTR Greer says China’s controls on rare earths ‘incredibly aggressive’
• Greer sees landing zone for US, China trade

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he expected to reach agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet in South Korea next week that could range from resumed soybean purchases by Beijing to limits on nuclear weapons.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he planned discuss China’s purchases of Russian oil and how to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its third year.

“I think we’ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, adding he believed that Xi had shifted his thinking on the war in Ukraine and would be receptive to a discussion about ending the war.

“He would now like – I’m not sure that he did at the beginning – he would now like that war to end,” he said.

Trump’s comments stood in contrast to more strident remarks from his top trade negotiator and finance chief, who were headed to Asia on Wednesday to keep Trump’s meeting with Xi, the first of his second term, on track.

The U.S. president downplayed the importance of China’s curbs on exports of rare earth magnets that have roiled markets, calling it “a disturbance” and describing tariffs as a “more powerful” issue.

Trump, under pressure from U.S. farmers reeling from big drops in Chinese orders for soybeans, said he expected to reach some agreement with Xi on the issue.

A deal was also possible on nuclear arms, he said, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin had raised the prospect of a bilateral de-escalation of nuclear weapons, and China could be added to that effort.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, flared in recent weeks after months of relative calm. Trump imposed additional duties of 100% on China that are due to take effect on November 1 after China announced export controls on nearly all rare earths.

 

US Unveils Plan to Bolster Beef Output, Raises Argentine Quota

The Trump administration released a plan to encourage ranching and boost domestic beef production, as it separately raised a quota for Argentine beef imports.

The package unveiled on the US Department of Agriculture website includes measures to make it easier for ranchers to graze cattle on federally owned land, increase insurance subsidies and slash costs for small processors.

The move — flagged earlier this week by USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins — comes as the Trump administration faces backlash from rancher groups over a plan to import more beef from Argentina, and just hours after the president said ranchers need to cut the prices for cattle they sell.

The administration, seeking to ease a surge in domestic beef prices, is raising the tariff-rate quota for Argentine beef fourfold to 80,000 metric tons a year, a White House official said Wednesday. The news was reported earlier by Politico.

Cattle prices have soared to unprecedented levels this year amid a severe shortage, driving up the cost of beef to consumers while wiping out billions of dollars of profits for meatpackers. The issue has stood in the way of Trump’s promise to make groceries more affordable.

Trump’s vow earlier this week to boost beef shipments from Argentina was met with criticism from cattle producer groups, who said excessive imports are displacing domestic output.

The USDA’s plan on Wednesday includes steps to enforce labeling rules, ensuring that only meat from animals that have been born, raised and slaughtered in the US can be sold as US-made.

 

Cooperative Backs Louis Dreyfus JV in $1.3b Vicentin Cramdown

Union Agricola de Avellaneda is backing a restructuring proposal by Louis Dreyfus-Molinos Agro, a rival in the cramdown of distressed Argentine soy exporter Vicentin, it said in a statement.

• UAA would manage some of Vicentin’s operations if LDC-Molinos wins, calls on its members to adhere to the offer
• NOTE: UAA is one of four outfits that paid to enter Vicentin’s cramdown, a legal process where they compete for creditors’ votes to restructure $1.3b of debt in a bid to take over the company
• Outfits have until end-of-month to gather votes
• The other three are LDC-Molinos, brokerage Grassi, and Bunge
• NOTE: LDC-Molinos has also asked the bankruptcy judge to exclude Cima Investments from the cramdown
• Cima late last year acquired de facto veto rights in the cramdown and has approved Grassi’s offer

 

SEASONAL RAINS ARE FORECAST IN NOVEMBER FOR MOST OF SOUTH AMERICA, WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS

What to Watch:

• Near-average November rainfall forecast for South America, with slight dryness in southern Brazil and wetter conditions in the Southeast
• Widespread warmth is expected in Central, North, and Eastern Brazil
• The forecast doesn’t pose main challenges for corn and soybean plantings or wheat late development, but soil moisture in southern Brazil could decline ahead of the growing season
• The potential for warm and wet conditions in Minas Gerais bodes very well for coffee blooming

 

 Weather in late October will support rapid corn/soybean sowings in Brazil

What to Watch:

• Adequate balance of rain and dryness over the next 10-15 days should support wheat development in Argentina
• Dominance of dry conditions in Brazil will favor rapid corn/soybean plantings through late October, despite a single wet spell early next week

 

Favorable October weather bodes well for U.S. corn harvest

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 421 [415–428] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is unchanged at 421 [415–428] million tons amid modest late season weather, with little to no expected frost risks into late October, despite recent dryness issues across some key parts of eastern Corn Belt. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 September), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 427.1 million tons, above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 97.7 million acres, up 7.5% from last season, which is 1.0 million acres below the USDA’s September estimate of 98.7 million acres. Yield is estimated at 185.9 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 186.7 bpa), which leads to a production of 16.58 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 16.81 billion bushels). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 06 October) had analysts’ own estimates for corn production and yield on average at 16.61 billion bushels (with a range of 16.42 and 16.74 billion bushels) and 184.6 bushels per acre (with a range of 182.4 and 185.9 bushels per acre), respectively. Due to the recent government shutdown, the USDA’s Crop Progress report has been suspended indefinitely. October weather has been favorable for the crop amid overall warm and dry conditions, and corn harvest must have passed the halfway mark with little problems. Some dryness issues across eastern Illinois, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio have been detected in recent weeks, but the crop’s late season development is essentially complete and maturing/harvesting stages are already in full swing, so it should not be of a huge concern at this point. Warm weather is in the forecast through late October, and no significant frost risks are in sight.

 

Excessive rainfall in central China has disrupted corn harvests and raised quality concerns

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 297.5 [294.8–300.2] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

During September and early October, the North China Plain experienced persistent heavy rainfall, leading to flooding and crop lodging. These conditions have disrupted corn harvests and raised grain quality concerns. Particularly in Henan province, severe drought during the initial growing period was followed by excessive precipitation at crop maturation and harvest, resulting in reductions in both yield and quality of corn. As a result, China corn production estimate was reduced to 297.5 million tons, despite favorable weather conditions in the Northeast region.

 

 

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