Global Ag News for Oct 25.24

TOP HEADLINES

China moves to develop rural economy with plan to boost farmers’ income

China’s agriculture ministry outlined measures on Thursday for provincial governments to boost farmers’ income by developing the rural economy, including efforts to spur employment of migrant workers.

The world’s second largest economy is looking to bolster its ailing rural economy and achieve food security, as villagers increasingly move to cities for higher paying jobs, leaving its farms battling a shortage of labour.

Looking to widen income channels for farmers, the ministry urged provincial authorities to form and beef up new agriculture businesses, such as farmers’ cooperatives and family farms.

It also called for steps to encourage employment of migrant workers so as to raise their incomes.

The ministry backed activities such as development of resource contracting, property leasing, and shareholding in operating properties.

It asked rural collective bodies to participate in providing services such as production and labour.

The state owns all farmland in China, where farmers have decades-long land lease rights that collective groups exercise on their behalf.

China passed legislation in June to strengthen protection of farmers’ land rights and support development of village collectives, which will take effect in May 2025.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/2 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil down 0.37.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 14 1/4; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal down $7.30; Soyoil up 2.11.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 77 3/4; Soymeal down $33.20; Soyoil up 0.65.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.8% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 14.4% in HRS; Corn is down 11.1%; Soybeans down 23.6%; Soymeal down 20.1%; Soyoil down 8.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 43 yuan; Soymeal down 10; Soyoil up 130; Palm oil up 174; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 70.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 70 ringgit (-1.52%) at 4533.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 24 were: SRW Wheat down 1,525 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,785, Corn up 3,419, Soybeans down 16,978, Soymeal up 4,720, Soyoil up 3,517.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Producers have not been able to cover the gap from late planting of soybeans yet and they only have about a week left before the window closes. Rainfall has been good farther south as well, with much better progress on planting occurring there.

Argentina: An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment. There is still drought out there though, even after a system brought through some good rain over the last couple of days. The pattern is turning drier though, for a little more than a week. Based on the recent rainfall, a shorter dry stretch will not be all that harmful, but if it lasts longer than forecast, issues may start to arise again. Soybean planting will start in November and the dry stretch will not be favorable early on. More rainfall will be needed to continue reducing drought.

Northern Plains: A small system moving through on Thursday will bring some isolated showers, otherwise dry conditions continue as drought keeps building. There is potential for showers to develop with pulses of energy moving through next week, though models disagree on that potential. Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Despite some showers earlier this week, soil moisture continues to be quite low with widespread drought. Harvest conditions have been very good though. A pair of systems will move into the region next week with a much better chance for pulses of showers to move through the region that could be more substantial. Models are working out that potential, however.

Midwest: A small system will move through on Thursday and Friday with a scattered showers and small pockets of heavier rain potential. Though some showers will fall, it should not be heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt harvest for too many areas. A storm system moving in next week could bring some waves of showers to the region that could be more meaningful.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next week and questionable precipitation potential next week, restrictions could last a long time.

Europe: It continues to be unfavorably wet in some areas in the northwest and Italy. Another system will move into western areas with more unneeded showers for Friday into the weekend, though Spain will benefit from the rain that may continue there into next week. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks ago but some areas would now like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

Black Sea: Rainfall deficits are very large in the east and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with several fronts moving through with very limited showers and larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

Australia: A front is moving through eastern areas Thursday, but with very little precipitation forecast for agricultural areas. The same goes with another system this weekend where showers may be relegated to the Pacific Coast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 24 had funds: buyers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: Exporters sold 277,600 metric tons of U.S. corn to Japan; 165,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown buyers; and 198,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown buyers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday. All the sales were for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN PURCHASE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have provisionally purchased about 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender this week
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog has issued an international tender to buy an estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 metric tons of feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat. 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 2.15M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 4.18M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Oct. 17.

• Corn sales rose to 4,184k tons vs 2,226k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 533k tons vs 504k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 2,152k tons vs 1,703k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 17, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 17.1k tons of the 23.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentina weather outlook positive for soy and corn planting, meteorologist says

Recent rainfall over Argentina’s agricultural heartland will likely continue into November, allowing for the normal planting of soybeans and corn, a leading meteorologist told Reuters on Thursday.

The expectation of healthy rainfall follows significant precipitation in recent weeks that reversed an earlier dry spell over the key farming area, home to much of the South American nation’s grains output.

“The final days in October will be dry, but we’ll see a return to rain in November,” said meteorologist German Heinzenknecht, citing a trend that should cover top farmland with around 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rainfall.

“Humidity reserve levels are very high for soybeans and corn,” noted Heinzenknecht, an expert with weather consultancy Applied Climatology Consulting.

The country’s 2024/25 soybean crop is expected to yield 52-53 million metric tons, while the corn harvest will likely reach 51-52 million tons, according to the latest estimates from the Rosario Grains Exchange.

According to a separate report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, nearly 29% of the 6.3 million hectares (15.6 million acres) reserved for corn have been sown so far.

The report also sees recent rains boosting the corn crop, including fertilization, as well as helping the 2024/25 wheat harvest, which it sees yielding 18.6 million tons.

The wheat harvest kicks off in November and ends early next year.

Over the past couple weeks, between 200-250 millimeters (8-10 inches) of rain was registered over the country’s main agricultural zone.

Planting for corn kicked off in September for the 2024/25 crop, while soybeans are in their early sowing stage. Both crops should proceed normally with the likelihood of adequate rainfall.

Heinzenknecht explained that forecasts for a weak La Nina weather phenomenon should only have a limited impact on local weather patterns in December, which marks the start of the Southern Hemisphere’s summer, a season that usually sees less rainfall.

La Nina typically brings below-average rain patterns to Argentina’s main farmland.

“Maybe we’ll see some December interference from La Nina, but it won’t lead to extreme risk. There could be some dryness, but that’s more due to regional factors that could see quick corrections,” he said.

Heinzenknecht added that he expects La Nina’s impact on the weather to diminish as an influential factor from the end of January.

 

Global soybean market attention fully focused on weather dynamics in South America

2024/25 SOYBEAN MARKET OUTLOOK – OCTOBER 2024

Soybean prices saw a continued decline in late September and early October until recent small upticks, amid ample supplies from the U.S. and hefty new season output expectations from Brazil, both of which are estimated to be at record high levels. Sluggish demand outlooks from China also weighed on the market, extending the overall bearish sentiment.

The market’s attention has shifted to the weather dynamics in South America, as the interests in U.S. late season development quickly fade away amid a near record high harvest pace with non-existent late season frost risks. As the U.S. crop season closes quietly, the weather risks prevalent in South America will markedly stand out, mostly focused on lack of moisture in Argentina’s main Pampas region. Despite its current dire situation, on the other hand, Brazil’s soil moisture status should soon see a positive turnaround, as indicated by our recent forecasts.

The long-term direction of the market may be dictated by the demand side of the dynamics as well, as there exists a great uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. Depending on the outcome, a series of new tariffs from the U.S. against the top soy importer China could renew trade tensions, leading to lower overall demand.

 

China Expects Record Crop Harvest on Higher Corn, Wheat Yields

China is expected to harvest over 1.4 trillion jin (700 million tons) of crops for the first time this year due to higher yields, Zhang Xingwang, a vice agriculture minister, told a presser in Beijing today.

• More than 80% of the crops had been harvested as of Oct. 24
• Harvest partly due to fewer extreme weather patterns

 

Ukraine Sees Record Soy Crop as Drought Hurts Corn: Vysotskyi

Ukraine expects a record soybean harvest this year, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi told reporters on Friday.

• Soybean crop will likely reach about 6 million tons in 2024: Vysotskyi
  • NOTE: Ukraine’s soybean harvest surpassed 4.7 million tons in 2023
  • Farmers favoring the oilseed as rotation crop due to less need for fertilizers, low logistic costs relative to prices
  • Expansion of soybean planting also followed unfavorable weather for other crops this year
• Ukraine will harvest less corn due to drought
  • 67% of corn has been harvested to date, deputy minister says
• Ukraine has demined 229,000 hectares, out of 512,000 that require demining or examination: Vysotskyi
  • Russia’s shelling of seaport infrastructure hasn’t affected Ukraine’s agricultural export flows, which are at similar levels as last year

 

French Corn Harvest 25% Done vs 5-Year Average of 69%: AgriMer

Some 25% of the corn crop was harvested as of Monday, up from 14% the previous week but still lagging well behind the five-year average of 69%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• About 21% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, compared with a five-year average of 47%
• 38% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 64%
• Some 75% of French corn was in good or very good condition, down from 78 in the previous week and 83% a year earlier

 

Turkey Sees 5.5% Decline in 2024 Wheat Output to 20.8m Tons

Turkish statistics office publishes its 2nd estimates for 2024 crop production.

• In total, cereals output is expected to decline 7.1% from 2023
• Vegetable production is expected to rise 6%

 

GrainCorp Fails to Resolve Pay Dispute With NSW Grain Handlers

GrainCorp failed to resolve a pay dispute with some grain handlers at a Fair Work Commission conference, according to a co. statement.

• The Australian Workers’ Union and delegates rejected GrainCorp’s offer of a 14% pay increase over three years, an increase in the sign-on bonus to A$1,000 and back pay to July 1, said Jess Simons, GrainCorp’s head of corporate affairs
• “As well as continuing negotiations with all our employees, we are focused on minimizing the impact of any industrial action” and ensuring harvest activity can continue, said Simons
• NOTE: The company previously said it hoped to reach an resolution at the conference
• NOTE: GrainCorp operates the largest grain storage and handling network on Australia’s east coast

 

Bird Flu Tests Don’t Find Signs of Human-to-Human Spread

• Five people exposed to sick patient showed no signs of H5N1
• Two new cases confirmed in Washington state Wednesday

US health officials didn’t find signs of human-to-human bird flu spread after testing a group of people in Missouri with suspicious symptoms.

Five health-care workers with potential symptoms who were exposed to a bird flu patient didn’t show signs of infection with the H5N1 virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said Thursday on a call with reporters. The patient, along with a household contact who also showed signs of possible infection, may have been exposed to the same infected animal, officials said.

Both had similar symptoms and periods of infection, supporting a “single common exposure to bird flu rather than person-to-person spread within the household,” the agency said in a statement.

Bird flu has long been considered a pandemic threat, typically killing more than half of those known to be infected worldwide. Although people who have contracted the strain now spreading in US dairy cows and birds generally have had mild symptoms, health officials remain on the alert for signs of human spread.

New Reports

The CDC confirmed two new human cases of bird flu in Franklin County, Washington, and is investigating five other poultry workers who are presumably positive. The investigation is still ongoing, the agency said.

Of 31 people reported with H5N1 bird flu infections in the US this year, only one — the person in Missouri who remains unidentified — didn’t have known earlier exposure to sick animals. Signs of a mild respiratory infection developed in the health-care workers and a close household contact of that person, leading the CDC to investigate.

While the H5N1 virus is changing, it “has not made the jumps that we’re looking for to be able to spread easily person-to-person or to infect people easily,” said Meg Schaeffer, an epidemiologist with SAS Institute Inc., an analytics firm based in Cary, North Carolina. If that occurs, “that could become a very serious and severe pandemic and that’s what we have to detect in order to protect ourselves.”

The Missouri patient is considered a confirmed case of bird flu infection, the CDC said. While showing some signs of an immune response to H5N1, the household contact didn’t meet the criteria for a case, the agency said.

More than 100 health care workers were exposed to the patient during hospitalization, the CDC said.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Rose 2.3% Y/y in September

Commercial beef and pork production rose to 4.45b pounds in Sept., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production up 2.6% y/y to 2.2b pounds
• Sept. cattle slaughter totaled 2.57m head, a 1.5% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 44 pounds from last year to 1,406 pounds
• Pork production up 2.1% y/y to 2.23b pounds
• Hog slaughter increased 0.3% y/y to 10,521m head
  • Avg live weight was 285 pounds vs 281 pounds a year ago

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 486k tons in the week ending Oct. 19 from 568k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 2% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 21% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $30.08 per short ton, an increase of $2.83 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Oct. 22: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Oct. 22, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose to 76% last week from 62% in the previous week
• Winter wheat up 6 percentage points to 58% in drought

 

 

 

 

 

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