Global Ag News For Oct 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China buys US soybean cargoes ahead of Trump-Xi meet, sources say

• COFCO bought 180,000 tons of U.S. beans for Dec/Jan shipment
• China’s first purchases of U.S. soybeans from autumn harvest

China’s state-owned COFCO bought three U.S. soybean cargoes, two trade sources said, the country’s first purchases from this year’s U.S. harvest, shortly before a summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

As the two nations battle over trade tariffs, the lack of Chinese buying has cost U.S. farmers billions of dollars in lost sales, after they largely supported Trump in his campaigns for president.

Although COFCO’s deal for December-January shipment of about 180,000 metric tons of soybeans was China’s first such buy in months, traders do not expect a significant resumption in demand for U.S. cargoes after recent large South American purchases.

COFCO did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

“COFCO has proceeded to purchase U.S. beans even before the two leaders have reached a trade agreement,” said a trader at an international trading company that supplies Chinese crushers.

“The volumes booked by COFCO are not that large, three cargoes for now.”

Benchmark Chicago soybean futures prices Sv1 jumped this week to their highest in 15 months, rebounding from recent five-year lows on hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal.

The prime U.S. soybean export season normally runs from October through January, but China has shunned soybeans from the autumn U.S. harvest this year, amid protracted trade friction with Washington, turning instead to South American suppliers.

Reuters was the first to report China’s purchase of three cargoes.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 4 1/4; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil down 0.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 27 1/4; Soymeal up $10.80; Soyoil down 0.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 22 in SRW, up 23 1/2 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 17; Soybeans up 70 3/4; Soymeal up $33.50; Soyoil up 0.41.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.3% in SRW, down 7.1% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.1%; Soybeans up 7.3%; Soymeal down 0.9%; Soyoil up 25.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 24 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil down 110; Palm oil down 176; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 65.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 65 ringgit (-1.51%) at 4252.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 493 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 28 were: SRW Wheat down 6,475 contracts, HRW Wheat down 593, Corn down 11,437, Soybeans down 19,701, Soymeal down 2,517, Soyoil up 375.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 28 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: After a mid-week cyclone in the Midwest, conditions will quiet again well into November across major U.S. crop regions, facilitating crop progress
• SOUTH AMERICA: Persistently cool temperatures through the next couple weeks in Argentina will have minimal impacts on crops at this stage given the dry outlook
• AFRICA: Cool/wet weather in northern South Africa could slow maize plantings there in an otherwise moderate outlook through early November
• AUSTRALIA: Moderate temperatures and high rainfall over most of Australia through the next 1-2 weeks will benefit any remaining wheat/rapeseed development
• TROPICS: Major Hurricane Melissa is currently making landfall in Jamaica at Category 5 intensity, bringing catastrophic wind/flooding damage to the island before turning toward eastern Cuba

After a cooler week, widespread warmth will return to North America well into November

What to Watch:

• After a cooler week in the U.S., widespread North America warmth will return into next week and beyond
• An active storm track will be largely focused on Canada with snow/rain chances in the next couple weeks
• The prevalence of warmth in the forecast should facilitate crop harvest/planting activities despite increasing rains along the Canadian Prairies

Northern Plains: A system moved through on Monday with scattered showers and the region will be in the cross-hairs for clipper systems of various strength going into early November. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but no significant threat of snow is in the forecast through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system brought heavy rain to parts of the region over the weekend. And a front is moving through on Tuesday with areas of showers. That should help with some of the drought that has been spreading and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so.

Midwest: A front and attached system will move through western areas on Tuesday, then curl around the southern and eastern portions of the region for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, followed by a little burst of cooler air. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork in some areas.

Delta: A system went through over the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall. Another front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with more scattered showers. The rainfall is not forecast to bring much benefit to the Mississippi River, but should improve the drought in the region. The area will trend drier again after the system passes on Wednesday.

Brazil: A front moved into southern areas over the weekend with scattered showers and some heavy rain. The front will migrate into central Brazil over the next couple of days and restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread showers.

Argentina: A front brought some areas of heavy rain to the country late last week, filling in some areas that were a little dry. Some showers are forecast across the north for Tuesday and another front is forecast to bring through rainfall this weekend. It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would be very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage.

Europe: More waves of showers are in the forecast this week. Another system is likely to bring widespread rain to western areas later this week and send more waves eastward this weekend into next week as well. All the rainfall may be making it difficult to complete fieldwork, but is favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

Black Sea: Widespread rain swept through the region over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to some of the driest areas in eastern Ukraine and western Russia Tuesday. A few more showers will be possible there later this week. Though the rainfall is favorable for winter wheat, northern areas will start to go dormant in early November unless temperatures end up warmer than forecast. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

 

The player sheet for 10/28 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc bought an estimated 204,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 207,000 tons on Tuesday.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers is October 29.
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 250,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer also issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 24 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly higher than last week at 1.113m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.003m bbl vs 21.919m a week ago

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 21% Y/y So Far in Season to Oct. 26

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 6.2m tons as of Oct. 26, compared with 7.9m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Morocco (759k tons), Saudi Arabia (695k tons) and Jordan (422k tons)
• Barley exports were 2.6m tons, up 58% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 5m tons, down 27% y/y
• NOTE: The commission said export data are incomplete for France since the beginning of 2024
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Commission said it is working to resolve these issues

 

Russia Has Harvested 137m Tons of Grain, Keeps Forecast: Tass

Russia has harvested 137m tons of grain (in bunker weight) this year, Agricultural Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Tass.

• Russia maintains 2025 grain crop forecast at 135m tons

 

South Africa 2026 Corn-Planting Intentions Are Most Since 2021

Farmers intend to plant corn on 2.67 million hectares in the 2026 season, an area that 2.7% bigger than a year earlier, the nation’s Crop Estimates Committee says in a statement.

• That would be the biggest area in five years
• The committee raised the estimate for the 2025 commercial-corn harvest by 0.9% to 16.3 million tons
• The harvest would be 27% bigger than a year earlier, it says in an emailed statement
• It raises the estimate for production of the white variety by 0.1% to 8.3 million tons, and increases the forecast for output of yellow corn by 1.8% to 7.99 million tons
• Non-commercial corn-crop estimate unchanged at 621,500 tons
• NOTE: White corn is used to make a staple porridge known as pap while the yellow variety is mainly used in animal feed

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Production Seen Rising on Favorable Weather

Indonesia’s annual palm oil output is likely to rise more than expected due to favorable weather, the nation’s main industry group said, potentially easing concerns over tight supply while adding pressure on prices.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, on Tuesday said it had raised its forecast for crude palm oil and crude palm oil kernel production to 56 million tons this year, up from a March estimate of 53.6 million tons. Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of the edible oil, produced 52.76 million tons in 2024, according to the group.

Weather conditions have been stable this year, with no prolonged rainfall or severe drought, Gapki Secretary General M. Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono said at a media briefing.

High prices have also encouraged farmers to take better care of plantations, including by using more fertilizers, which helped boost yields, he said. Palm oil has averaged 4,266 ringgit a ton so far this year, about 3% higher than the average in 2024.

Increased production will lift exports to about 31 million tons this year, up from 29.5 million tons in 2024, Wahyudiono said.

Chairman Eddy Martono said output may rise further in 2026, supported by the planned introduction of a new pollinating insect in the second half of the year, pending government approval. “The impact on production will be seen clearly in 2027,” he said.

 

Ukraine 2025 sunseed crop may fall to 9.5 million tons due to poor weather, union says

Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest may fall to 9.5 million metric tons from 10.2 million tons in 2024 if rainy weather unfavourable for harvesting persists, the country’s major farmers union UAC said on Tuesday.

Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter and a large European grower of soybeans.

“The market forecasts 10.2 to 10.8 million tons (of sunseed) while we started the season with the forecast of 13 million tons. But if precipitation continues, we could theoretically harvest 9.5 million tons,” UAC said in a weekly report.

The economy ministry said last week that farmers had harvested 7.84 million tons of sunflower from 82.4% of the sowing area with an average yield of 1.85 tons per hectare.

UAC said that delays in harvesting and low yields will result in both lower sunflower oil production and lower exports.

The union noted that monthly sunflower oil exports in October and November would not exceed 400,000 tons compared to 480,000 tons per month a year earlier.

Ukraine’s APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said earlier this month that it cut the 2025/26 sunoil export forecast to 5.36 million tons from 5.86 million tons.

 

Cattle Lawmakers Ask Trump Admin to Rethink Argentina Beef Trade

Some members of the Congressional Beef Caucus pressed Vice President JD Vance over the administration’s plan to import beef from Argentina, Republican Sen. Steve Daines tells reporters on Tuesday.

• “Let’s just say message received,” he says, adding that Vance would take the message back to the White House
• Daines says he doesn’t know if Trump will reverse course

 

Russia Sends BRICS Partners Grain Exchange Concept: RBC

Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Agriculture Ministry and central bank has developed a concept for a BRICS exchange for trading agricultural products, RBC reports, citing unidentified officials, familiar with details.

• Concept has been shared with Russia’s BRICS partners
• It involves the creation of a neutral technology platform with the participation of local exchanges in BRICS countries, which could be operated by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC)

 

EU deforestation law proposal frustrates Brazilian exporters, Rabobank says

A new proposal by the European Commission to ease its anti-deforestation law has disappointed Brazilian agribusiness exporters who made early investments to comply with the rules, Rabobank analysts said in a report seen by Reuters.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

Brazilian exporters of soybean, beef and coffee have invested to secure immediate premiums for adhering to the legislation by 2025, but the changes may delay expected gains and affect their competitiveness, the report showed.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 7 Million Tons In October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.00 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 7.34 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.08 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.09 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.19 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 6.57 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Japan to Buy $8b in US Corn, Soybeans, Ethanol, Rollins Says

Japan will buy $8 billion in US corn, soybeans, rice, ethanol and other goods, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says in a post in X.

 

Australia’s wheat production rises on favorable weather and satellite imagery

2025/26 AUSTRALIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 34.8 [33.1-36.7] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UDPATE

Australia’s 2025/26 wheat production forecast has been raised by 2% to 34.8 [33.1 – 36.7] million tons. This upward revision is supported by satellite imagery showing healthy vegetation across major wheat-producing states, New South Wales, Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland, where vegetation density is at or above the long-term median.

Weather conditions over the past two weeks have been mixed. Temperatures were mostly near normal in Victoria and South Australia, warmer than average in New South Wales and Queensland, and generally cooler in Western Australia. Rainfall was near normal in Western Australia, while Queensland and New South Wales were drier than normal. Victoria and South Australia experienced mostly above-normal rainfall.

The weather outlook is generally supportive of the wheat crop as harvesting is underway in parts of the country. Short-term forecasts (1–7 days) indicate above-average temperatures in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, with a cooling trend expected in the 8–15-day period. Queensland and Western Australia are expected to experience near-normal temperatures. Moderate rainfall is forecast across most regions, though Western Australia may receive limited precipitation. LSEG’s seasonal outlooks for November suggest near-normal temperatures and rainfall in key wheat areas, with slightly above-normal rainfall expected in New South Wales and Queensland.

 

2026/27 China wheat production expected to remain steady despite sowing challenges

2026/27 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 140.95 [134.5-148.0] MILLION TONS

China’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is preliminarily projected at 141.0 [134.5 – 148.0] million tons. The total wheat planted area is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous season at approximately 23.62 million hectares, as persistently low prices may curb expansion.

Persistent autumn rains in October saturated soils across China’s main wheat belt, particularly in parts of Henan, Anhui, Shandong, and Hebei, delaying the normal pace of winter wheat sowing. In response, the government launched a 60-day nationwide campaign to ensure timely planting, deploying expert teams and farm machinery to affected areas. The optimal planting window for winter wheat in China typically spans late September to the end of November, providing farmers with sufficient time to complete sowing.

The two-week weather forecast indicates generally near-normal to above-average temperatures and limited rainfall across major wheat-producing areas in the North China Plain wheat belt, supporting planting progress. However, parts of the southwestern regions may receive relatively high rainfall, potentially causing further delays.

 

 

 

 

 

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