Global Ag News for Oct 29.24

TOP HEADLINES

MARS Cuts EU Corn, Sunflower and Soy Yield Forecasts on Weather

The European Union cut its yield forecasts for corn, sunflowers and soybeans due to unfavorable weather conditions, the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report on Monday.

• Says “excessively wet conditions” in Italy affected ripening and harvesting of summer crops, while intensive end-of-season rains in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Croatia worsened yield expectations that had already been low following heat and dryness
• “Overly wet conditions” were also observed in many other parts of central and western Europe, raising concerns about grain quality, delaying harvesting of summer crops and hampering plantings of winter grains

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil up 0.63.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 3/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.83.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 22 3/4 in SRW, down 19 in HRW, down 24 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/4; Soybeans down 85 1/2; Soymeal down $37.70; Soyoil up 0.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.6% in SRW, down 12.0% in HRW, down 17.4% in HRS; Corn is down 12.5%; Soybeans down 24.3%; Soymeal down 21.3%; Soyoil down 9.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal up 18; Soyoil down 84; Palm oil up 16; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 104.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 104 ringgit (+2.30%) at 4633.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 155 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 28 were: SRW Wheat up 6,491 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,901, Corn up 14,351, Soybeans down 22,786, Soymeal up 3,232, Soyoil down 4,151.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers west Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. 

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday, near normal Thursday, above normal Friday. 6 to 10 day: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday. 

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday. 6 to 10 day: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 26 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 124,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Japan and 120,000 tons to unknown destinations, all for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 metric tons of durum wheat

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 207,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy an estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 824k Tons of Corn for Export, 2.394m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 24, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 824k tons vs 1,001k the previous wk, 541k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 2,394k tons vs 2,549k the previous wk, 2,051k a yr ago
• Wheat: 249k tons vs 268k the previous wk, 198k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 24

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 24 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.49m tons of the 2.39m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Rains in the South hamper crops and limit trades

Recent rains in the Southern Brazil have hampered wheat crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul state.

In this scenario, many producers were away from closing deals, waiting for the progress of the harvesting. Those who were active in the spot market traded at lower prices, focused on the possibility of decrease in the quality of the grains, due to the unfavorable weather.

According to data from Cepea, between October 18 and 25, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved down 0.86% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.26% in Santa Catarina and 0.07% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations upped 2.54% São Paulo and 0.25% in Paraná; in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, the values remained stable.

The sharp increase in São Paulo state is linked to low productivity. According to Conab, 98% of the area had been harvested in SP.

 

Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean planting 36% complete, AgRural says

Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2024/25 season had reached 36% of the total expected area as of Oct 24, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 18 percentage points from the previous week as weather conditions improved.

“Although there is still a slight delay compared to the previous crop, planting advanced by more than 8 million hectares (19.8 million acres) in just a week,” AgRural’s statement said.

At the same time last year 40% of Brazil’s soybean crop had been planted.

Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top grain-producing state, accounted for half of all the planting advance seen last week as more regular rainfall encouraged work in the fields, the consultancy said.

Parana state, meanwhile, had “another week of strong progress due to good soil moisture levels,” AgRural added.

The consultancy also said that farmers in Brazil’s key center-south region had planted 52% of the expected area for the 2024/25 first corn crop as of last Thursday, up 4 percentage points from the previous week but below last season’s 53%.

Brazil plants corn all year round and the first crop usually represents about 20% of national output, while the second crop – which is planted later, after soybeans are harvested on the same fields – accounts for some 75%.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 36.1% Done as of Oct. 25: Safras

Compares to 37.1% one year ago and an average of 33.3% in the last five years, according to an emailed report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

In the previous week, 16.8% of planting had been done

 

Ukraine’s July-Sept 2024 Wheat Exports Almost Double: UAC

Ukraine exported 6.1m tons of wheat in July-Sept. 2024, almost twice as much as the same period last year, UkrAgroConsult analysts wrote in a note.

• Main export destinations were Spain, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt
• NOTE: in the first months of last season, Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping corridor was just getting established
• Taking into account preliminary data for Oct., Ukraine exported 50% of total 2024/25 export potential in first 4 months of the season
• “Most striking trend is unusually high exports early in the wheat and barley seasons. This is despite a reduction in export potential compared to the previous season”
  • Similar situation can also be seen in Russia
  • “most likely scenario is an increasing likelihood of a grain export limit” for Black Sea countries

 

Egypt Says Delayed Russian Wheat Shipment Expected in November

Egypt will begin receiving a delayed Russian shipment of 430,000 tons of wheat in November, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk told Bloomberg on Monday.

Farouk didn’t provide additional details and declined to lay out the reasons behind the delay in the deal that was reached in September. The shipment had been planned for October, with delivery no later than the first week of November.

The delay highlights the challenges Egypt — one of the world’s biggest wheat purchasers — is facing in building stocks for the vital commodity at a time when it’s also struggling to revive an economy just emerging from its worst foreign currency crisis in decades.

Russia is the world’s top wheat supplier, and its exporters union has indicated that there’s disagreement over who Russian sellers should be dealing with in Egypt.

Egyptian authorities in August said they were tendering for a mammoth order of 3.8 million tons of wheat, but only a small fraction of that quantity was purchased and no tenders have been held since.

Farouk said that tender had “expired” and that the government had the option of moving ahead with other tenders or direct purchases with wheat suppliers. The comments spoke to Egypt’s emphasis that it won’t be tied to any specific exporter, and that it is open to diversifying its wheat sources, depending on global prices.

 

Grain handlers go on strike at Australian exporter GrainCorp

Some grain handlers at GrainCorp GNC.AX, one of Australia’s largest exporters of wheat and other crops, began industrial action on Tuesday, threatening to disrupt the harvest just as it ramps up.

Australia is one of the world’s biggest shippers of agricultural products. Harvesting of wheat, barley and canola is entering full swing and will continue into January.

The Australian Workers’ Union (AWU) said GrainCorp handlers in New South Wales – one of the country’s biggest growing regions – would conduct impromptu hour-long strikes over the next 30 days with as little as 10 minutes warning.

“We’ll be taking action at peak work periods, if a train comes in, if trucks line up,” said AWU official Tony Callinan.

GrainCorp has the largest grain storage and distribution network on Australia’s east coast and in some areas farmers have no nearby alternative grain handler.

Callinan said around 200 workers were taking part in the stoppages.

GrainCorp said fewer than 100 had voted in the strike ballot and it had more than 1,000 grain handlers in New South Wales including casual staff.

“Our teams are monitoring the situation and working to ensure harvest activity can continue at our sites,” Jess Simons, the company’s head of corporate affairs, said.

Callinan said recent pay rises were far below the rate of inflation during a period of healthy company profits and the union wants a three-year deal boosting pay by 6% in the first year, 5% in the second and 4% in the third.

GrainCorp said it had offered 6% in the first year, 5% in the second and 3% in the third.

The strikes do not yet threaten grain supply but are a headache for farmers.

“Growers are working within an extremely tight time frame and they need all hands on deck,” said Justin Everitt, a grower and board member at industry group NSW Farmers.

“Strikes at receival sites will certainly come at a cost to farmers,” he said.

“There will be large, random delays to when they can deliver and unload grain, which will only increase freight costs and add to the stress and fatigue of harvest.”

 

Fertilizer Waits on US Farmer as Warmer Fall Stalls Applications

Global urea prices were unchanged last week as traders waited for India to re-tender. Corn Belt ammonia prices were unchanged for the fourth consecutive week at $588 per short ton as a hot, dry October sped harvest but kept US soil temperatures above 50 degrees Fahrenheit, the upper bound for 4Q use. CF Industries, OCI, and Nutrien are the largest publicly traded North American anhydrous ammonia producers.

 

 

 

 

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