TOP HEADLINES
South Africa’s 2024 maize harvest seen 22.6% lower than last year
South African farmers are expected to harvest 22.6% less maize in the 2023/2024 season compared with the previous one, the government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said on Tuesday.
The CEC’s ninth summer crop forecast estimated the 2024 harvest at 12.72 million metric tons, down from 16.43 million tons harvested the season before. The previous estimate on Sept. 26 put the 2024 maize harvest at 12.80 million tons.
The harvest is expected to consist of 6 million tons of white maize, for human consumption, and 6.72 million tons of yellow maize, used mainly in animal feed.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.22.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 13 1/2; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil down 0.98.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 16 1/2 in SRW, down 14 3/4 in HRW, down 19 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans down 93 3/4; Soymeal down $39.80; Soyoil down 0.29.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.7% in SRW, down 10.4% in HRW, down 16.1% in HRS; Corn is down 12.3%; Soybeans down 25.0%; Soymeal down 21.7%; Soyoil down 9.8%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 20 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 70; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 58.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 58 ringgit (+1.25%) at 4695.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 155 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 29 were: SRW Wheat down 585 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,659, Corn up 341, Soybeans down 14,007, Soymeal up 6,372, Soyoil down 1,550.
Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Reports from Mato Grosso of rapid planting progress have meant that producers there have almost caught up to the normal pace and the continued good weather should allow that to persist this week as well. The likelihood of a significant portion of the crop being planted late has fallen dramatically. Southern areas are going through a drier period, with more limited showers over the next two weeks. Conditions there may fall a bit, but they can handle a drier stretch as long as it does not last too long.
Argentina: Drier conditions over the weekend continue for most of this week. Soils had gotten a big boost over the last few weeks, but that will be declining a little bit this week. However, the pattern looks to become more favorable again with showers starting in the west on Thursday and more systems moving through this weekend and next week, bringing periods of needed showers through. Corn establishment has gotten much better and soybean planting will start this week or next in mostly good conditions as well.
Northern Plains: Several storm systems will start to pass through or nearby the region starting on Tuesday and continue through next week. That could bring in some needed precipitation, but may result in some snow in some spots. Drought is not likely to be eliminated in the more active pattern, but some lucky areas that get hit multiple times could see soil moisture building. Temperatures will likely be fluctuating quite a bit in the more active pattern.
Central/Southern Plains: A system moving into the region on Tuesday will be the start of a chain of disturbances and systems that should keep the region active through the middle of next week. That may increase soil moisture in the region, but the likelihood of getting into the southwestern Plains HRW wheat areas is a bit uncertain. The active pattern may be more disruptive to the end of the harvest, though.
Midwest: The pattern will start to get more active this week as a system moves through Tuesday through Thursday, another moves through over the weekend, and more are lining up to produce precipitation next week. While drought has been increasing over the last couple of months, the active pattern may help to reduce drought in some areas. However, turning the momentum will be tough to accomplish and this busier period will not eliminate drought or the concerns for building soil moisture before the ground freezes.
Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be extremely low, causing restrictions on transportation. The pattern is about to get much more active in the Mississippi River Basin, but there is widespread drought throughout most of it and it will be tough to turn around. Some small improvements to river levels will be possible, though.
The player sheet for Oct. 29 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa in an international tender on Tuesday seeking up to 207,000 tons.
- CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an additional 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn late on Tuesday after purchasing 136,000 tons in an international tender earlier in the day
- WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
- FAILED DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 75,000 metric tons of durum wheat on Tuesday.
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Wednesday.
- RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy an estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
- RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
TODAY
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 25 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.076m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 22.281m bbl vs 22.223m a week ago
Canada Crushed 933K Tons of Canola in September: StatsCan
Canola processing rose 1.2% in September from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Tuesday on agency’s website.
- Oil production totaled 395k tons, and meal output at 544k tons
- Aug.-Sept. crushings up 1.8% from year ago to 1.784m tons
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 33% Y/y in Season to Oct. 25
EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 7.26m tons as of Oct. 25, compared with 10.9m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- Leading destinations include Nigeria with about 1.17m tons, Egypt with 692k tons and Morocco with 552k tons
- Barley exports were 1.62m tons, down 42% y/y
- Corn imports totaled 6.38m tons, up 8% y/y
- NOTE: data are until October 25 due to a technical issue; Export data for Italy are not complete for the last six weeks; export data for France aren’t complete since the beginning of the 2024 calendar year; export data for Bulgaria and Ireland aren’t complete since the start of the 2023-24 season
Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 4.58 Million Tns In October – Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.58 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 4.63 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.92 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 6.24 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.51 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.57 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
Ukraine 2024/25 sunoil exports to fall to 5.2 mln T on smaller harvest, producers’ union says
Ukraine’s 2024/25 sunoil output is expected to fall to 5.6 million tons from 6.6 million tons in 2023/24, the sunoil producers’ union said on Wednesday.
The Ukroliyaprom union said sunoil exports could fall to 5.2 million tons in 2024-2025 compared with 6.2 million tons in 2023-2024 due to a smaller sunflower seed harvest.
Rusagrotrans Sees Russia’s October Wheat Exports at Record: IFX
Russia’s exports of wheat in October are expected to reach 5.9m tons, a record for that month, Interfax reported, citing the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans
- Shipments include exports to Eurasian Economic Union
- Last year, 5.12m tons was shipped in October
- Rusagrotrans sees July-October exports totaling 20.8m tons, exceeding the record level for the same period last year
- It expects November wheat shipments to exceed last year’s level and total 4.6m-4.8m tons
Brazil farmers, government slam Danone for cutting out Brazilian soy
Brazilian soybean producers on Tuesday said there is good reason for products of Danone to be boycotted after the French dairy giant said it would stop sourcing soy from Brazil, while the Brazilian government criticized “unreasonable” moves by European companies.
Danone’s finance chief told Reuters last week that the company was instead buying soybeans from countries in Asia, ahead of a European Union rule requiring companies to prove they are not sourcing from deforested land.
Aprosoja Brasil, a group representing farmers in the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, said in a statement that Danone’s move showed “lack of knowledge” of Brazil’s production process and was “discrimination against the country.”
“There is no doubt that Brazilian producers, tired of being unfairly singled out as villains, will start to have more than enough reasons to put Danone and other global brands on the list of companies to be boycotted in Brazil,” the group said.
Brazil’s agriculture ministry in a separate statement listed the country’s environmental efforts and called the EU legislation “arbitrary, unilateral and punitive,” while also criticizing companies.
“Brazil is ready to cooperate, but demands to be treated with the fairness and balance that guide international trade,” the statement said. “Untimely and unreasonable stances as announced by European companies with a strong presence in the Brazilian market must be rejected.”
Danone’s Brazilian unit said in a statement that it continues to buy Brazilian soybeans that meet local and international regulations. The firm’s headquarters did not immediately return a request for comment.
The EU Deforestation Regulation, covering imports of commodities like cocoa, coffee and soy, is scheduled to come into effect on Dec. 30, though the EU Commission this month proposed a 12-month delay.
Companies such as Nestle and Unilever have been gearing up to meet the new regulation before they face potential fines of up to 20% of turnover.
Brazilian law states that farmers must preserve between 20% and 80% of legal reserves, depending on the biome where they are planting. But rainforest destruction rates in the country remain high despite a drop under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
While major traders have vowed to stop sourcing soybeans from newly cleared land in the Amazon rainforest, soy farming continues to be a major driver of deforestation in the nearby Cerrado savanna.
Aprosoja said that “although there is deforestation, there is also a lot of natural regeneration.”
The group suggested that Brazil’s government could file complaints before the World Trade Organization and look for “compensation measures” from the EU as Brazilian farmers are now facing losses due to the European legislation.
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