Global Ag News For Oct 31.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Tariff Probe to Continue Despite Trump-Xi Deal, Greer Says

The US will proceed with an investigation that opens the door to new tariffs on goods from China, despite the two nations’ fresh truce, President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiator said.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last Friday opened a probe into China’s compliance with a limited trade agreement reached during Trump’s first term. That move was seen as potential leverage for the US president in his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

While the leaders agreed to suspend plans for higher tariffs and stricter export controls during their summit, the investigation is still moving forward, Greer said Thursday when asked about it during a Fox Business interview.

“You are correct to assume that,” Greer told host Larry Kudlow, a former Trump economic adviser. “We didn’t solve every problem in the US-China relationship today.”

The decision not to suspend the investigation could give Trump a tool to retaliate against China with new tariffs should his deal with Xi fall through.

The inquiry is being conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to place duties on imports from countries deemed to have adverse trade practices. Those investigations typically last several months, or more, but any adjustments made could prove more legally durable than the unilateral levies Trump imposed using emergency powers.

Those tariffs have been ruled illegal by federal courts and the Supreme Court is set to hear the administration’s appeal in the case next week. If the justices knock down the president’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, he would have to turn to other authorities to raise duties on countries, including China, or go to Congress.

Trump’s first-term trade deal with China was based in part on Beijing’s pledges to boost purchases of US agricultural products, a source of renewed tension this year. A 2024 study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association said China “fell short” of its obligation to buy $80 billion in American agricultural exports over 2020 and 2021.

China has committed to buying at least 87 million tons of US soybeans over the next several years in the latest deal, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil down 0.11.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 10 3/4 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 47 1/4; Soymeal up $21.10; Soyoil down 0.49.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 86 1/4; Soymeal up $41.70; Soyoil up 0.05.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.1% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.2%; Soybeans up 9.4%; Soymeal up 2.5%; Soyoil up 25.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil down 20; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 55.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 55 ringgit (-1.29%) at 4205.

There were changes in registrations (562 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 715 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 493 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 30 were: SRW Wheat down 7,928 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,383, Corn down 6,100, Soybeans down 15,262, Soymeal down 12,852, Soyoil up 5,743.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 30 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Quiet weather will prevail across the U.S. through the next 10 days to the benefit of crop progress before rains may increase
• SOUTH AMERICA: A split temperature pattern over Brazil will feature cool conditions in the south and warmth to the north, with minimal impacts on crops
• EUROPE: Widespread warmth is in store for Europe through the next 7-10 days, while rains will slow crop progress in Western Europe
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Moderately high rainfall will be favorable for late coffee development over the Vietnam Central Highlands through the next couple weeks
• TROPICS: Hurricane Melissa has moved out into the Western Atlantic as a Category 2 storm, and it is not expected to have additional landfalling impacts from here

 

Northern Plains: The region will be dealing with several little systems and fronts moving through the region through the first week of November, though precipitation looks rather light. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but the forecast is trending above-normal starting this weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent heavy rain should help with some of the drought that had been spreading through the region, and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so.

Midwest: A system is curling around the eastern portions of the region for Thursday with scattered showers. This is after bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall to western areas on Tuesday and southern areas on Wednesday. Some isolated showers may develop Friday and Saturday and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. Precipitation will generally be light, but may disrupt harvest and other fieldwork in some areas. Temperatures should be somewhat variable with all the systems moving through.

Delta: Moderate to heavy rain that fell earlier this week is helping to reduce drought in the region. The forecast for Mississippi River water levels has improved since earlier this week, bringing about a period of somewhat higher levels for early November. The area will trend drier again going into November though, meaning the burst of higher water levels will be temporary.

Brazil: A front has moved into central Brazil and will restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread rainfall across the country.

Argentina: It has been much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would have been very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage. Systems continue to push through the country going into early November, bringing through scattered showers that have kept soil moisture high for planting and early growth of corn. However, this also brings through cooler temperatures that will keep growth slow. Winter wheat prospects are high this year because of all the rainfall, though that may be causing more disease pressure, as well.

Europe: The continent has seen many waves of showers over the last couple of weeks, and more will move through into next week, being very favorable for winter wheat establishment. The rain may have led to some significant delays in fieldwork, though.

Black Sea: Rainfall over the last week has been overall favorable for the region to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Another round of showers will move through Friday and Saturday, but the region will trend drier afterward as systems are more likely to move across the north in early November. That should keep temperatures warmer for a while and hold off dormancy, which typically starts to occur for northern areas in early November. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Scattered showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week, providing some limited benefit to a few dry spots. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week, but a system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast for eastern areas. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn’t hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed. The coming rain this weekend should be more favorable.

China: Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 10/30 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 19,000 soybeans, and buyers of 4,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has bought about 250,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to buy an estimated 40,300 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from Canada only
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal-feed barley.
• SOYBEAN PURCHASE AGREEMENT: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

China Buys Four More US Soybean Cargoes After Trade Talks

China bought at least four US soybean cargoes after a summit between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping, as Beijing moves to boost purchases of American farm goods following a trade truce.

The cargoes are for shipment later this year and in early 2026, and the total volume is about 250,000 tons, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to media. The soybeans will be shipped from the Pacific Northwest and US Gulf, they added.

President Trump said China will purchase a “tremendous” amount of American soybeans after a meeting with Xi on Thursday to hammer out a wide-ranging trade deal. Futures in Chicago have rallied this week to the highest level in almost 16 months in anticipation of a trade breakthrough.

China booked its first US soybean cargoes earlier this week, just days before the summit between Trump and Xi, lifting a months-long pause that had hurt American farmers. The US trade with China was worth more than $12 billion last year, but Beijing has sought to diversify its supply in recent years.

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a post on X that the Asian nation agreed to buy at least 12 million tons this year, providing some context around volumes after the summit ended without those details. Sales would rise to 25 million tons annually over the next three years, she added, which would bring them closer to typical levels.

“That’s good news for farmers, assuming the agreement holds, and indicates an intention on both sides for ag trade to go back to normal,” said Even Pay, director at Beijing-based advisory firm Trivium China.

Traders and crushers expect China to roll back an additional 10% tariff on US soybeans, which was implemented earlier this year as part of countermeasures against Washington — though Beijing hasn’t been explicit on this yet. However, even with that cut, American cargoes would still incur 13% duties, making them uncompetitive with Brazil, the Asian nation’s top supplier.

China’s recent purchases have likely been made by state-owned firms, including Cofco Group, people familiar said. More buying is expected, but there’s little incentive for commercial crushers to turn to US supplies just yet because it remains unprofitable, even with some tariffs removed, they added.

Cofco Group didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Oct. 30: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn area estimate maintained at 7.8m ha
  • Planting advanced to 35% complete from 33.8% in the previous week%

 

Argentine late-season frosts affect wheat crop, exchange says

Late-season frosts have affected wheat fields in southern parts of Argentina’s agricultural heartland in recent days, the Buenos Aires grain exchange said on Thursday, adding that the full impact was not yet known.

Argentina is a major global exporter of wheat, and the exchange estimates that wheat production in the current 2025/26 season will reach 22 million metric tons, which would be the nation’s second-biggest wheat harvest.

Following weekend rains, a cold front “advanced over much of the agricultural south, currently going through a critical period,” the exchange said in its weekly crop report.

“The consequences will become clearer in the coming days,” it added.

Some 8.4% of the area farmers sowed with wheat has been harvested so far, it said. Argentina’s wheat harvest concludes in January.

Regarding the 2025/26 corn crop, the Buenos Aires grain exchange reported that early corn planting has finished and that 35% of the estimated 7.8 million hectares of corn fields have now been planted.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest exporter of corn.

 

Trump cuts China tariffs to 47% after South Korea meeting with Xi

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday (October 30) he had agreed to reduce tariffs on China to 47% in exchange for Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases, keeping rare earths exports flowing and cracking down on the illicit trade of fentanyl. Cara Angeline Oliver has more.

 

EU Boosts 2025-26 Grain Output Forecast on Wheat, Barley

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 285.7m tons in the 2025-26 season, up from a September forecast of 284.2m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The soft-wheat forecast was raised to 133.4m tons, from 132.6m tons
• Barley raised to 55.9m tons from 55.7m tons
• Corn remained unchanged at 56.8m tons

 

French Corn Harvest Speeds Up, Wheat Sowing Progresses: AgriMer

France’s corn harvest was 82% complete as of Monday, up from 75% in the previous week, and faster than the five-year average of 74% for this time of year, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 68% of the soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, up from 57% the previous week
• That’s faster than the 38% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 61%
• The winter barley crop was 80% planted, compared with 73% the previous week and a five-year average of 76%

 

Russia’s October Wheat Exports Seen Above 5M Tons: Analysts

Russia’s wheat exports in October are expected to reach about 5.1 to 5.7m tons, according to estimates from several key consultancies.

• SovEcon estimates exports at ~5.1m tons, according to managing director Andrey Sizov
  • That would be below last year’s 5.6m tons
• Dmitry Rylko, head of consultancy IKAR, said he expects exports to top 5.5m tons
• Rusagrotrans, the analytical center of railway operator, forecasts shipments at 5.65m tons
• NOTE: Russia’s wheat exports this season through September were running about 30% behind the prior year
  • The country is the world’s biggest wheat exporter
  • Russian officials earlier have held talks with major grain traders in an effort to boost exports, Bloomberg reported in September

 

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest at 40.2 million tons so far, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had threshed around 40.2 million metric tons of grains from 8.77 million hectares as of October 31, the economy ministry said on Friday.

The ministry gave no comparative data.

Ukraine plans to harvest around 56 million tons of grain in 2025, officials have said, the same volume as in 2024.

 

Malaysia’s October Palm Oil Exports Seen At 1,501,945 Metric Tons – Amspec Agri

MALAYSIA’S OCTOBER PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,501,945 METRIC TONS VERSUS 1,439,845 METRIC TONS IN SEPTEMBER – AMSPEC AGRI

 

Indonesia sets November crude palm oil reference price at $963.75 per ton, ministry says

Indonesia has set a crude palm oil reference price of $963.75 per metric ton for November, up slightly from $963.61 per ton in October, a Trade Ministry regulation showed.

The new price, set on Thursday, means the export tax for CPO in October will remain unchanged from October at $124.

Indonesia also imposes a separate 10% export levy on CPO.

 

BMI Raises 2025 Palm Oil Price Outlook on Strong Indian Demand

BMI raised its average annual price forecast for palm oil prices to 4,320 ringgit a ton this year, from 4,150 ringgit, on stronger-than-anticipated demand from top importer India.

• Demand driven by palm’s favorable pricing relative to soy and sunflower oil, according to a note from BMI, a Fitch Solutions company
• India’s 3Q palm imports surged 43% q/q, exceeding expectations
• Competitive advantage now narrowing as soy oil prices decline, which may moderate India’s palm demand and boost soy’s appeal in coming months
  • Still, demand collapse unlikely as palm oil competitively priced
• Global palm oil output expected to rise 1.8% y/y in 2025-26 to 80.1m tons
  • Indonesian production forecast to climb +3.3% y/y to 47.5m tons; Malaysian output +0.5% to 19.5m tons
• Price upside will be capped as Malaysian stockpiles set to remain elevated through 4Q and into 1Q, while Indonesia’s supply is increasing
• Global consumption seen expanding 2.5% y/y in 2025-26 to 78.5m tons, narrowing balance to 1.6m-ton surplus, from 2.1m tons
• Average price forecasts seen easing in 2026 to 4,300 ringgit
  • Indonesia’s plan to implement B50 biofuel mandate could constrain exportable supply and significantly impact nation’s export capacity

 

The World Bank warned about La Niña

The World Bank estimated that commodity prices will fall by 7 percent in both 2025 and 2026, accumulating four consecutive years of decline and reaching the lowest level in the last six years in the next calendar. It also warned of a possible impact of La Niña on Argentina’s agricultural production.

The report “Commodity Market Outlook” explained that the decline in prices is linked to “weak global economic growth, the growing surplus in oil supply and persistent policy uncertainty”.

At the same time, he raised the possibility that unexpected weather conditions could have another impact on commodity prices, affecting production in agricultural regions such as Argentina and Brazil.

“A stronger than expected La Niña phenomenon could bring warmer and drier than normal weather to important agricultural regions, such as Argentina, southern Brazil and the U.S. Gulf Coast,” indicating that “this could affect the production of staple foods such as corn, wheat and soybeans, and push prices above forecasts.”

The report added that “weather conditions indicate the likely occurrence of a La Niña event in late 2025 or early 2026,” explaining that “if it turns out to be more intense and prolonged than projected in the baseline scenario, it could lead to warmer and drier than normal weather in key agricultural production regions.”

The World Bank report remarked that “despite recent reductions, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels: they are projected to be 23 percent and 14 percent higher in 2025 and 2026, respectively, than in 2019”.

In this framework, he emphasized that global food prices are declining, and are expected to decrease by 6.1 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026. Along these lines, he detailed, “In food commodity markets, prices declined for the third consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2025 (quarter-on-quarter), due to a sharp fall in grain prices, particularly rice, wheat and maize, against a backdrop of ample global supply.”

“Soybean prices fall in 2025 due to record production and trade tensions, but are expected to stabilize over the next two years.” On this aspect, the United States and China agreed to resume exports from the North American country, which resulted in soybeans rising to $400 in the Chicago market.

In pointing out the effect of trade restrictions, he stated that during this period “export opportunities for Argentine and Brazilian producers have increased significantly, which has contributed to a substantial gap between soybean reference prices in the United States and Brazil”.

 

 

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