Global Ag News For Oct 8.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Palm Oil Jumps as Indonesia Progresses Biofuel Blending Program

Palm oil climbed after Indonesia made steps toward expanding its biofuel blending program, which will likely tighten supply.

The government can move forward to road testing after completing laboratory work on the 50% palm-based biodiesel mixture known as B50, said Edi Wibowo, director of bio-energy at Indonesia’s energy and mineral resources ministry. Officials are still waiting for direction on when that may start, he added.

Progress on the B50 initiative has lifted market sentiment, said David Ng, a senior trader at IcebergX Sdn in Kuala Lumpur. Expectations for lower Malaysian output, along with strength in rival soybean oil has also supported palm oil futures, though softer exports could cap gains, he added.

Indonesia currently runs the B40 program, which requires gasoil sold at fuel stations to be mixed with 40% palm-based biodiesel. The nation plans to boost the mix to 50% in 2026, in part to cut dependence on energy imports.

Higher blending will cut supply for exports, said Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki. The group asked the government to reconsider implementing B50 next year because palm production may not be sufficient enough to support the program.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal down $3.10; Soyoil up 1.18.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 11 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 21 3/4; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil up 1.98.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.6% in SRW, down 12.4% in HRW, down 7.3% in HRS; Corn is down 8.6%; Soybeans up 2.4%; Soymeal down 11.9%; Soyoil up 27.0%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 76 ringgit (+1.70%) at 4546.

China markets are closed for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 7 were: SRW Wheat up 6,096 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,109, Corn up 16,797, Soybeans up 1,434, Soymeal up 3,008, Soyoil down 7,307.

  

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 08 OCT 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected across the central U.S. this week. Next week, colder conditions will continue in the West, while the Plains, Midwest, and East stay warm. Rainfall will be above normal in the West and northern Plains; elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays warm with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and below normal temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will see warm weather this week, followed by colder conditions next week. Below-average rainfall is expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days, excluding France
• ASIA: South and Southeast Asia are likely to see near-normal to cool conditions, with warmth confined to the East over the 10-day outlook. Moderate to heavy rain is expected in the East/Southeast Asia.
• TROPICS: Tropical Storm Jerry is in the central tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Octave and Hurricane Priscilla are both located south-southwest of Baja California’s southern tip. Typhoon Halong is currently south-southwest of Japan.

 

Wet spells delay corn and soybean harvests in the Northern Plains

What to Watch:

• Mixed temperature patterns expected in most of the U.S
• Wet spells in the Northern Plains and West

 

Northern Plains: Heavy rain moved through portions of the region over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress. Another system will move through this weekend and could produce more of the same. A dry period in between the systems could allow for some significant harvest progress this week.

Central/Southern Plains: A front continues to produce some areas of rain as it moves through on Tuesday, after bringing a couple of streaks of heavier rain through northern areas Sunday and Monday. Drier weather and a burst of cooler temperatures is following behind the front, but we could see some spotty showers and temperatures will increase later this week. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers. Some disruption to harvest is possible, though winter wheat areas would like to see some additional rainfall after the recent heat.

Midwest: A front continues to bring rain as it moves through the region Tuesday, disrupting the harvest across the south. A few showers may be possible late week as well. But overall drier conditions continue to promote harvest for most of the region. Another front is forecast to move into the region this weekend that could bring more areas of unneeded rainfall.

Delta: Some showers moved through on Monday and were heavy in a couple of spots, helping with the drought and bringing at least some water into the Mississippi River. A front will push through on Tuesday with more limited showers. Drier weather that follows will continue to be supportive of harvest, but not for river levels, which should continue to decline overall, creating transportation issues.

Brazil: A front is moving into the south with showers early this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted have been at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. However, models are a little more aggressive with showers developing in the region late this week and weekend as the true start to the wet season rainfall. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

Argentina: Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Another front moved through this weekend with fairly widespread rainfall, but also a significant, but brief, drop in temperature. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

Europe: Scattered showers continue in eastern Europe throughout the week. A small disturbance may produce showers for parts of Spain this week as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

Black Sea: Some showers moved through the region over the weekend, and extension of a system that lingered over southeastern Europe from last week. However, many areas saw little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The rainfall forecast has increased for this week and a system settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

China: Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.  

 

The player sheet for 10/7 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that closed on Tuesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 3 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.036m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.636m bbl vs 22.764m a week ago

 

Argentina orders oilseed workers to suspend planned strike over wages

Argentina’s government said it had ordered oilseed workers’ unions to suspend plans for an indefinite strike over wages at processing plants, the Labor Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.

The South American nation is a top world supplier of grains.

Argentina’s Federation of Oilseed Industry Workers, Cotton Ginners and Related Workers of the Republic of Argentina and San Lorenzo Oil Workers’ Union (SOEA) had called for the strike to begin on Wednesday.

The unions said a proposal put forward by business representatives at a hearing at the National Labor Secretariat was “insufficient and provocative.”

The Labor Ministry said a 15-day period of mandatory conciliation had been initiated, requiring unions and workers to refrain from any planned or ongoing industrial action and to provide services as normal.

The announcement comes shortly after a two-day pause on export taxes for corn, soy meal and soy oil at the end of September, which prompted a brief trading frenzy as exporters sold off billions of dollars worth of goods.

 

China increases corn imports from Russia threefold in 8M to 287,000 tonnes – Agroexport

China imported over 287,000 tonnes of corn from Russia in 8M 2025, up threefold year-on-year, while the value of supplies increased 3.1-fold to $70 million, the Agroexport federal center said, citing China’s General Administration of Customs.

Russia has become the leading supplier of corn to the Chinese market.

Brazil is in second place at 249,000 tonnes worth $68 million and Ukraine in third place (231,000 tonnes worth $60 million), followed by Myanmar (75,000 tonnes worth $22 million) and the United States (20,000 tonnes worth $5 million).

During the same period last year, the top three exporters were Brazil (5.8 million tonnes), Ukraine (4.5 million tonnes) and the U.S. (2 million tonnes). Russia was in fourth place.

China significantly reduced corn imports in 2025 due to large carry-over stocks from its own high harvests of previous years and high imports in 2024, the center said.

 

SovEcon Increases Ukraine 2025 Season Wheat and Corn Estimates

Consultant SovEcon raised its estimates for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat and corn crop on higher yields, citing Ukrstat data.

• Wheat output is now forecast at 22.9m tons, an increase of 1.5m tons over the previous estimate
  • Corn is now estimated at 31.8m tons, up by 0.9m tons
• Corn yields improved in Northern and Central regions, benefiting from cooler, wetter conditions
• The export pace for both crops pace slowed in the first three months of the season
  • Wheat exports in July-September totaled 4.7m tons, down from 6.1m tons a year earlier, as EU purchases slumped
  • Corn exports slowed to 0.9m tons, down from 2.8m tons a year ago
• Corn exports saw “the weakest start since 2020-21,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon. “Shipments to China — once a top destination — have been zero in recent months, even as the country booked substantial volumes of Ukrainian barley in 2025-26”
• Despite the slow exports pace, the 2025-26 wheat export forecast was increased to 16.8m tons, corn to 27m tons, on larger crops

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 25% Y/y So Far in Season to Oct. 5

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled 4.96m tons as of Oct. 5, compared with 6.63m tons for a similar period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Saudi Arabia (638k tons), Morocco (472k tons) and Nigeria (335k tons)
• Barley exports were 2.18m tons, up 42% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 3.93m tons, down 30% y/y
• NOTE: The commission said export data are incomplete for France since the start of 2024
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Commission said it is working to resolve these issues

 

Russia could boost wheat exports to 5.1 mln tonnes in Oct – Rusagrotrans

Russia could boost wheat exports to 5.1 million tonnes in October from 4.6 million tonnes in September, the Rusagrotrans analytical center forecasts.

Rusagrotrans told Interfax that wheat exports were lower in September than last year’s 5.52 million tonnes, and lower than the five-year average for the month of 5.03 million tonnes.

The October forecast for wheat exports could also be lower on an annual basis from the 6.08 million tonnes in October 2024, but will likely exceed the five-year average of 4.81 million tonnes.

As reported, the center yesterday raised the forecast for Russia’s grain harvest to 138 million tonnes in 2025, excluding new regions, including 88.7 million tonnes of wheat.

 

Australia’s Bumper Wheat Crop Trimmed by Southeast Dry Spell

A dry spell in Australia is taking the edge off of a bumper wheat harvest, trimming supplies from one of the world’s largest exporters.

Precipitation in September, a key phase for the crop’s development, was lower than normal in the southeastern states of Victoria and South Australia, according to Bureau of Meteorology data. South Australia in particular received less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), half the historical average.

The southeastern states account for about a quarter of Australia’s annual harvest, and both are coming out of years of severe drought. Heavy rain in winter months had raised hopes for a strong harvest, and the Department of Agriculture’s latest report in September forecast the country’s wheat harvest at its fourth largest on record. Victoria and South Australia were expected to collect about 8.2 million tons.

However, soil moisture has now worsened, and as temperatures warm up, crops could begin to struggle, said James Maxwell, agribusiness senior insights manager at Bendigo Bank. The Bureau of Meteorology is now forecasting only a minor chance of above-average rainfall in Victoria and South Australia before the end of 2025, with the majority falling in November. However, Maxwell said if the rain comes too late, it could delay the harvest rather than helping the crop.

Australia is a major wheat shipper, and while Victoria and South Australia’s wheat harvest usually caters to domestic demand, any decline in the harvest would tighten availability across the supply chain. Farmers typically begin collecting wheat around October and will finish early next year.

“I think there will be some cuts to production estimates, if they haven’t already been made, in the next month or so,” Maxwell said in an interview. “Between South Australia and Victoria, I’d say we could see easily half a million tons, up to a million, if it was really bad.”

 

China Ramps Up Autumn Harvest Push Amid Persistent Rain

Han Jun, China’s minister of agriculture urges all-out effort to secure autumn grain harvest amid widespread rain in the major grain-producing region between the Yellow River and the Huaihe River, according to the agricultural authorities in a statement, citing a video call chaired by Han.

• Ministry has set up dedicated teams to prioritize the dispatch of farm machinery in Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong and provide technical support for equipment modifications
• Han supervises coordination efforts in video call

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Improves in September: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 126 points in Sept. from 125 in Aug., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 7 points from Aug.
• Future expectations up by 5 points
• “High production costs and weak crop prices are pressuring farm incomes. A large majority of US farmers expect government support to bolster farm incomes if crop prices remain weak,” according to Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture

 

 

 

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