Global Ag News For Oct 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canadian National Railway Sets Grain Movement Record for September

Canadian National Railway has set a record for grain transportation in September as the harvest season moves into the final stages.

The Canadian railroad said Wednesday that it has moved 2.91 million metric tons of grain from Western Canada last month, 80,000 metric tons more than any other previous September.

“As the harvest season moves into its final stages, our teams are working closely with customers to keep grain moving steadily through the supply chain,” Interim Chief Commercial Officer Janet Drysdale said.

CN Rail 20,000-mile long rail network connects grain-producing regions in Western Canada to key export terminals and domestic markets.

Its grain operations are a cornerstone of its business, which supports Canada’s farmers, grain companies, and links up to broader global food supply chains.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 1.41.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 23 3/4; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 1.97.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.6% in SRW, down 11.4% in HRW, down 6.2% in HRS; Corn is down 8.1%; Soybeans up 2.7%; Soymeal down 12.0%; Soyoil up 28.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 31 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 180; Palm oil up 322; Corn down 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 48.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 48 ringgit (+1.06%) at 4593.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 8 were: SRW Wheat up 5,346 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,042, Corn up 13,539, Soybeans up 19,222, Soymeal up 1,007, Soyoil up 2,308.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 09 OCT 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected to dominate the central U.S. this week. Over the next 6 to 15 days, temperatures will vary across the country. The western states and northern Plains are likely to see above-normal rainfall, while most other regions will remain dry.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays warm with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and below normal temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will experience warm weather this week, with colder conditions expected to develop in the eastern regions next week, while the rest of the continent remains warm. Below-average rainfall is expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: South and Southeast Asia will see near-normal to cool conditions over the next 10 days, with warmth limited to the East. Cooler weather is expected to spread in days 11–15 across Asia. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in East/Southeast Asia during days 6–10.
• TROPICS: Hurricane Priscilla is expected to raise the risk of flooding across the U.S. Southwest in the coming days. Typhoon Halong is skirting Japan’s east coast with no landfall expected.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures are rising in the region after a couple of chilly days. A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain and minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions until then could allow for some significant harvest progress.

Central/Southern Plains: A front produced some areas of rain as it moved through over the past few days, that may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers.

Midwest: A front brought heavy rain to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, disrupting harvest but improving drought conditions and bringing extra water into the Mississippi River system for transportation. A few showers may be possible Thursday and Friday, but drier weather should promote harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas.

Delta: Showers that moved through on Monday caused drought reduction in some areas while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through next week.

Brazil: A front in the south has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted have been at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. Models have been consistent this week, suggesting that rainfall will fill in and be more typical of wet season rainfall starting on Friday and continuing thereafter. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

Argentina: Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

 

The player sheet for 10/8 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley that closed on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales For Week of Oct.

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts.

• USDA’s export sales report for the week ending Oct. 2 was originally scheduled for Thursday but is delayed indefinitely due to the government shutdown
• Corn est. range 1,000k – 2,100k tons, with avg of 1,425k
• Soybean est. range 600k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,050k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.2% to 22.72M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.636 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.071m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.036m

 

Argentina exchange raises wheat forecast to record-tying 23 million tons

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast to reach 23 million metric tons, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, raising its estimate due to high yields from abundant soil moisture.

The new forecast, up from a previous 20 million tons, is a result of months of above-average rainfall in the country’s main agricultural regions. If confirmed, the harvest would tie the production record set four seasons ago.

“We’ve never seen the wheat look like this,” specialists told the exchange, according to its October report. The province of Buenos Aires is currently showing the highest yields, at around 4 tons per hectare.

Argentine farmers are expected to begin the harvest in the coming weeks, with the work concluding in January.

The exchange held its harvest estimates for soybeans and corn at 47 million tons and a record 61 million tons, respectively. Planting for the 2025/26 corn crop is 28% complete, while soybean planting is set to begin in the second half of October.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter and the leading global supplier of soybean oil and meal.

 

Brazil’s beef exports to China jump 38% in September amid US tariffs

Brazil’s beef exports to China rose 38.3% in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 tonnes, industry group Abrafrigo said on Wednesday, helping push total monthly exports to a record high.

China is the largest market for Brazilian beef, and has increased purchases as part of its broader strategy to avoid agricultural goods from the United States amid an ongoing trade dispute.

Global demand for beef has helped Brazil offset the impact of U.S. tariffs on its exports, Abrafrigo said. In August, the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on shipments of several Brazilian goods, including beef, which already had a 26.4% tax levy.

Latin America’s largest economy has been expanding exports to both new and traditional markets amid a global trade reshuffle triggered by U.S. tariffs, with similar trends also seen in soybean exports, which also reached record volumes.

Total beef exports, including fresh and processed meat, edible offal, and tallow, generated $1.92 billion in revenue in September, with volumes reaching 373,867 tonnes, up 49% in value and 17% in volume year-on-year.

“This strong performance came in the second month of additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian products, showing the sector’s resilience and ability to seize new commercial opportunities,” Abrafrigo said.

Exports to the U.S., Brazil’s second-largest beef market year-to-date, fell 41% in September to $102.9 million.

The European Union became the second-largest destination last month, led by Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. EU purchases totaled $131.7 million, up 106% from a year earlier.

Abrafrigo said 130 countries increased purchases of Brazilian beef this year, while 48 reduced them.

 

Brazil’s biodiesel demand, soybean oil use to grow by 6% in 2026, says Stonex

Demand for biodiesel in Brazil is expected to increase by 6.3% in 2026, reaching 10.5 billion liters, according to estimates released on Wednesday by consultancy StoneX.

This expansion in biodiesel consumption would follow an estimated annual growth of 8.8% in 2025, and assumes the full implementation of a 15% biodiesel blend in diesel (B15).

StoneX expects soybean oil consumption, the main raw material for biodiesel production in Brazil, to increase by 6.3% in 2026 with the maintenance of the B15 blend, reaching 8.4 million tons, after a projected 10.1% rise this year.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 7.1 Million Metric Tons In October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.12 MILLION METRIC TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 4.44 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.92 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.46 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.0 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 5.67 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR – ANEC

 

Indonesia aims for B50 biodiesel in second half of 2026

Indonesia will implement its B50 biodiesel programme in the second half of 2026, the mining minister said on Thursday, adding that the plan could eliminate the country’s need to import any diesel next year.

The world’s largest producer of palm oil has a biofuel programme which blends palm oil with diesel to reduce reliance on fuel imports. The programme is currently at the B40 stage, using 40% palm oil-based fuel. The timeline of the move to B50 had been uncertain.

“We are now about to enter the fourth round of testing (of B50)…when it’s all declared clear and clean, we will launch B50 in the second semester of 2026,” Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said at a conference in Jakarta.

The country anticipates a reduction in diesel fuel imports to 4.9 million kilolitres this year, he said, representing a near 40% drop from 2024. Southeast Asia’s largest economy imported 8 million kilolitres of diesel in 2024.

 

Kazakhstan harvests 22.7 mln tonnes from nearly 90% of grain area

Kazakh farmers have threshed 22.7 million tonnes of grain from 14.3 million hectares, representing 89.3% of the total area dedicated to grain and leguminous crops, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture reported.

In addition to grain, agricultural producers have gathered 1.7 million tonnes of oilseeds, 2.6 million tonnes of potatoes, and 3.5 million tonnes of vegetables.

This year’s total area under crops is 23.6 million hectares, including 16 million hectares under grain and legumes.

Kazakhstan’s Grain Union expects this year’s grain harvest to total 22.9 million tonnes, while the Agriculture Ministry’s outlook stands at 24 million tonnes.

Last year, Kazakh farmers threshed record 26.5 million tonnes of grain, with the average yield of 1.6 tonnes per hectare.

 

Rain Hampers Corn Harvest in Some Chinese Growing Regions: CASDE

Heavy rain in areas, including Henan, is impacting the autumn corn harvest, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a monthly report.

• Precipitation is expected to remain high in parts of the growing region, posing a risk of waterlogging
• However, moisture and temperatures have been favorable for yields in most of north China and the eastern Huanghuai region
• The agency kept its supply and demand forecasts for corn, soybeans and edible oils unchanged for the 2025-26 season

 

Export duty on Russian wheat falls 20% from Oct 8 to 493.4 rubles per tonne – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat is 493.4 rubles per tonne from October 8 compared to 617.7 rubles a week earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The reduction therefore amounts to 20%.

The duty rate on barley remains at zero, while on corn it falls to 348.9 rubles from 716.9 rubles per tonne.

The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $225.8 per tonne for wheat ($225.8 for the previous period), $198.4 for barley ($200.4) and $221.8 for corn ($226).

The new rates will be in effect until October 14 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. Duty rates were initially calculated in dollars and in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

Currently, the base price for wheat is 18,000 rubles per tonne, while for barley and corn it is 17,875 rubles per tonne.

 

Russia Has Harvested 130m Tons of Grain, Minister Says: IFX

Russia has already harvested 130m tons of grain, Agricultural Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Interfax.

• NOTE: Russia sees 2025 grain harvest at 135m tons

 

U.S. corn harvest in full swing amid favorable late season weather

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 421 [415–428] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is fractionally increased to 421 [415–428] million tons amid favorable late season harvest weather conditions, with little to no expected frost risks into mid-October, despite overall seemingly declining crop condition scores. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 September), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 427.1 million tons, above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 97.7 million acres, up 7.5% from last season, which is 1.0 million acres below the USDA’s September estimate of 98.7 million acres. Yield is estimated at 185.9 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 186.7 bpa), which leads to a production of 16.58 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 16.81 billion bushels). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 06 October) had analysts’ own estimates for corn production and yield on average at 16.61 billion bushels (with a range of 16.42 and 16.74 billion bushels) and 184.6 bushels per acre (with a range of 182.4 and 185.9 bushels per acre), respectively. Due to the recent government shutdown, this week’s progress report originally scheduled to be released on 06 October was halted. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 29 September) put total national-level corn harvest at 18%, in line with last year’s pace of 20% and the five-year average of 19%. Crop condition scores continue to remain around 5-year high at the national level, but have been on a consistent downward trend since late July, currently indicating 66% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 64%) as of last week. Looking ahead, warm and dry conditions are likely to continue to dominate the majority of the Corn Belt through the end of the month, with little to no frost risks in sight, which should provide good conditions for late season activities as harvests progress in full swing.

 

China corn production fell amid earlier drought impacts and recent excessive rains

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 298.2 [295.0–301.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

During July and August, prolonged warm anomalies dominated across most of the North China Plain. Below normal vegetation densities during the first half of the growing season confirmed the negative effects of drought, particularly in Henan, Shandong, and Shaanxi provinces. Subsequently, widespread precipitation and normalized temperatures were observed in late August and September, which partially improved crop conditions. However, over the past two weeks, the region received up to 180 mm more precipitation than normal, raising concerns about flooding and crop lodging. Corn quality could also be reduced by the excessive rainfall during the period of crop maturation and harvest.

In contrast, Northeast China experienced mild temperatures and favorable rainfall during the growing season, with some precipitation deficits noted in Heilongjiang and Jilin. Recent above-normal temperatures reduced the risk of frost or freeze damage, but soil moisture deficits limited yield potential, resulting in a small decrease in production by 384,000 tons in Heilongjiang and Jilin. Meanwhile, favorable weather conditions and record NDVI values in Nei Mongol and Liaoning indicate potential record yields in the provinces.

Overall, China corn yield is estimated at 6.64 tons per hectare (up from 6.59 last season) and production is projected at 298.2 million tons (compared to 294.9 million tons for 2024/25), with overall good conditions in Northeast China offsetting losses in drought-affected areas.

 

 

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