Global Ag News for Sep 14th

Longer Soybean Planting Window In Brazil Raises Eyebrows

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $0.05; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.32; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 27 1/4 in SRW, down 19 1/2 in HRW, down 21 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 19 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 2.35.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 29 yuan ; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil down 60; Palm oil down 14; Corn down 11 — Malasyian Palm is up 42. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 42 ringgit (+0.97%) at 4360 extending gains for a second day as higher exports from Malaysia, the second-largest grower, signal strong demand for the month.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights… West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal. East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal. Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

The player sheet for Sept. 13 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 0 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 13 were: SRW Wheat down 4,556 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,043, Corn down 1,748, Soybeans down 5,912, Soymeal down 146, Soyoil down 4,909.

There were changes in registrations (2 Oats). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 299 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,275 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat-buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), purchased 382,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender, it said.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Dec. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24, 2022
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL issued a tender to import about 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin soft wheat under a preferential tariff import quota
• WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 58% G/E, Soybeans 57%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn harvest 4% vs 5% a year ago
• Corn 58% G/E vs 59% last week, and 60% a year ago
• Corn dented 87% vs 74% last week, and 88% a year ago
• Corn mature 37% vs 21% last week, and 39% a year ago
• Soybeans 57% G/E vs 57% last week, and 63% a year ago
• Soybean drop leaves 38% vs 18% last week, and 35% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 12% vs 5% last week, and 9% a year ago
• Cotton 64% G/E vs 61% last week, and 45% a year ago
• Cotton harvested 5% vs 6% a year ago
• Sorghum 57% G/E vs 57% last week, and 52% a year ago

U.S. Inspected 138k Tons of Corn for Export, 105k of Soybean

In week ending Sept. 9, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 138k tons vs 278k the previous wk, 939k a yr ago
• Wheat: 548k tons vs 413k the previous wk, 694k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 105k tons vs 91k the previous wk, 1,635k a yr ago

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Sept. 9

• China was the destination for 64k tons in soybean shipments and 69k tons of wheat
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

NOPA August U.S. soybean crush seen at 154.183 mln bushels -survey

A sluggish U.S. soybean crushing pace likely persisted for another month in August as processors scraped up the last beans of the 2020 crop and awaited fresh stocks from the 2021 harvest, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 154.183 million bushels of soybeans in August, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.

If realized, it would be down 0.6% from the 155.105 million bushels processed in July and down 6.6% from August 2020, when crushers processed 165.055 million bushels. It would also be the smallest August crush since 2017 and the second smallest crush for any month in almost two years.

Estimates for the August 2021 crush ranged from 146.000 million to 158.600 million bushels, with a median of 155.000 million bushels.

The crush has fallen short of market expectations for the past six months as several processors have idled plants seasonally for needed maintenance amid lofty soybean prices and thinning supplies, analysts said.

Stocks estimates ranged from 1.500 billion to 1.600 billion pounds, with a median of 1.550 billion.

Brazil 2021 Winter Corn Sales 70.1% Complete: Safras

Compares with 62.6% a year earlier and 60.6% in August, according to an emailed report from Safras & Mercado.

• Summer corn planting is 16.7% complete, vs 11.8% a week earlier, Safras & Mercados says in a separate report
• Compares with 5-year average of 12%
• Winter corn harvest is 97.9% done, Safras & Mercado says

Brazil Center South ‘21/22 Summer Corn Seeding 16% Done: AgRural

As of Sept. 9, according to an emailed report from consultancy firm AgRural.

• Compares with 10% a week earlier and 20% a year before
  • Rainfall in the Southern region slowed down planting, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul state
• 2021/22 soybean planting has started in Parana state, expected to start this week in areas of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo

France Cuts Wheat Harvest Estimate: Ministry

The country’s 2021 soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 36.1m tons, versus an August estimate for 36.7m tons, France’s agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.

• Summer rainfall delayed harvests and cut yields, particularly in the Hauts-de-France and Grand-Est regions
  • Soft-wheat yields seen at 7.3 tons/hectare, versus 7.42 tons/hectare last month
• Durum-wheat harvest is seen at 1.61m tons, versus 1.59m tons
• Barley harvest estimate little changed at 11.7m tons
• Rapeseed harvest figure raised to 3.31m tons, versus 3.22m tons
• Corn production outlook raised to 13.3m tons, versus 13.2m tons

Ukraine Wheat-Crop Outlook Rises; Wet Weather Curbs Quality: UAC

Ukraine’s 2021 wheat crop is now seen at 31.2m tons, up from a prior outlook for 30.5m tons, based on the latest harvest data, Kyiv-based researcher UkrAgroConsult said in a report.

• That will lift exports to 22.5m tons, from 21.8m tons expected previously
• Abundant moisture lifted wheat and barley yields, but reduced grain quality
  • There is a larger share of cheaper feed wheat and farmers have spent more on grain drying
  • In first two months of the 2021-22 season, feed wheat accounted for 42% of exports, versus 39% last year
• Corn crop estimate left unchanged at 38.2m tons

RUSSIA:

• Wheat crop estimate cut to 76m tons, down 5.1m tons from prior forecast
• Cut reflects updated plantings data from Russia’s statistics service and adverse weather for spring crops
• Export outlook pared by 2m tons to 36m tons

WHEAT/CEPEA: Harvesting of record crop begins in Brazil; farmers are optimistic

Cepea, September 13 – Harvesting of the new wheat crop has begun in Brazil with optimistic farmers. Expectations point to record productivity in the two major wheat-producing states in the country: Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In Paraná, yield is expected to be higher than that in 2020, but not a record. Prices have been high, underpinned by the also high import parity.

Activities have already begun in Brazil. Data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) show that, until September 4, 3.8% of the wheat crop had been harvested in the country. Considering state activities, 82.9% of wheat crops have been harvested in Goiás, 63% in Minas Gerais, and 10% in São Paulo. Meanwhile, purchasers are waiting for higher volumes of the new crop to arrive at the market, expecting prices to drop.

Longer soybean planting window raises eyebrows

The Ministry of Agriculture has extended the soybean planting window to 140 from 110 consecutive days in some regions of Brazil and allowed the planting of soybeans until February in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Pará, Minas Gerais, Rondônia, Acre, Ceará, Federal District, Tocantins and São Paulo. The measure meets the demand of farmers who want to produce their own seeds and need to sow later than the usual period – until December 31.

The new calendar, however, displeased a number of researchers, seed companies, chemical industries, agricultural defense agencies in some states, industry leaders and even farmers. They claim that the measure increases the risk of proliferation of the Asian rust – the main disease of the soy – and that the decision was not based on science, which caught them by surprise.

The definition of the planting dates did not have the scientific endorsement of Embrapa, an arm of the Ministry of Agriculture. Embrapa is against the permission to late soybean cultivation because of the “great risk” that the extension of the “green bridge” (uninterrupted sequence of planting in the field) brings to the sustainability of production.