Global Ag News for Sep 28

TODAY – USDA CROP PROGRESS

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $0.09; Soyoil down 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal up $0.01; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 12 in HRW, up 20 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal down $6.50; Soyoil down 0.95.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 80 yuan ; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil down 146; Palm oil down 106; Corn up 2 — Malasyian Palm is up 56. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 56 ringgit (+1.27%) at 4450.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. East: Isolated showers east Monday night-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Sept. 27 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-2 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 27 were: SRW Wheat up 2,512 contracts, HRW Wheat down 267, Corn up 6,163, Soybeans up 9,188, Soymeal down 834, Soyoil down 4,897.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 334,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 640,000 tonnes of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 18% Harvested, Soybeans 16% Harvested

• Corn harvest 18% vs 10% last week, and 14% a year ago
• Corn 59% G/E vs 59% last week, and 61% a year ago
• Corn dented 97% vs 93% last week, and 98% a year ago
• Corn mature 74% vs 57% last week, and 73% a year ago
• Soybeans 58% G/E vs 58% last week, and 64% a year ago
• Soybean drop leaves 75% vs 58% last week, and 72% a year ago
• Soybeans harvested 16% vs 6% last week, and 18% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 34% vs 21% last week, and 33% a year ago
• Winter wheat emerged 9% vs 3% last week, and 9% a year ago
• Cotton 65% G/E vs 64% last week, and 43% a year ago
• Cotton harvested 11% vs 9% last week, and 13% a year ago
• Sorghum 56% G/E vs 56% last week, and 51% a year ago

U.S. Inspected 518k Tons of Corn for Export, 441k of Soybean

In week ending Sept. 23, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 441k tons vs 277k the previous wk, 1,298k a yr ago
• Wheat: 286k tons vs 565k the previous wk, 589k a yr ago
• Corn: 518k tons vs 403k the previous wk, 827k a yr ago

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Sept. 23

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 289k tons of the 441k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Nigeria led in wheat

China’s Power Crunch Will Shut Down More Soybean Crushing Plants

China’s energy crisis will shut more soybean processors in its biggest producing regions, signaling that the disruption to local food supplies is growing due to a serious power shortage.

Some soy crushing operations in the northeastern regions of Jilin and Liaoning were halted last week and more could be suspended later this week or the next, according to people familiar with the situation. A plant belonging to Wilmar International Ltd.’s Yihai Kerry unit was partially affected, according to the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private.

This follows similar shutdowns in the northeastern city of Tianjin, including some operations of Louis Dreyfus Co. and Bunge Ltd. The processors in Tianjin stopped production last week and may not resume until next month.

Brazil Soybean Planting at 1.3% as of Sept. 23: AgRural

Compares with 0.1% a week earlier, and 0.7% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Most farmers are still waiting for more consistent rainfall before advancing works, AgRural says
• Summer corn seeding in Brazil’s Center-South is 26% done, in line with last year’s pace

Russia, Kazakhstan Wheat Yields Fall Below 5-Year Average: MARS

Winter-wheat yields in Russia are seen at 3.56 tons/hectare, 4.2% below the five-year average, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• Spring-wheat yield estimated at 1.5 tons/hectare, 15% below average
• Much of European Russia and the southwest part of Asian Russia lacked rain and faced heatwaves from June to mid-September, curbing crop potential
• In Kazakhstan, winter-wheat and spring-wheat yields are 21-22% below average due to heat and drought

Europe’s Biggest Chemical Firm Cuts Output on Soaring Gas Prices

• BASF is cutting ammonia output due to energy price increases
• Action threatens to compound supply-chain disruptions

Europe’s biggest chemicals producer is cutting ammonia output due to the continent-wide surge in gas prices, a sign that disruption first seen in the U.K. is spreading.

BASF SE on Monday said it curtailed ammonia production at its plants in Antwerp, Belgium and Ludwigshafen, Germany. The decision shows how even industrial giants are being hit by the unprecedented jump in energy costs, with European gas prices tripling this year. It also threatens to compound supply-chain turmoil, disrupting economies as they emerge from the pandemic.

Ammonia is used to make nitrogen fertilizers, and prices are spiking as manufacturers grapple with dramatically higher costs for their main feedstock. That could leave farmers having to pay more or cut fertilizer usage in spring, potentially fueling global food inflation.

Canada Main Crop Stocks to Fall to Record Low by End of 2021-22

A “severe drought” following record grain exports will shrink Canadian principal crop supplies to the lowest ever by the end of the 2021-22 marketing year, government says.

• End-of-year inventories in July 2022 are forecast to drop to 7.8m metric tons, down 39% y/y, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada says in monthly report
  • Low inventories at the beginning of the year combined with sharply lower production will reduce 2021-22 principal field crop supplies by 25% y/y at 87.6m tons
• Drought covered 94% of agricultural land in Western Canada by Aug. 31
• Carry-out stocks of canola pegged at 500,000 tons by July 31, 2022, down 72% y/y
  • 2021-22 canola production at 12.8m tons, down 34% y/y
• Canadian wheat production estimated at 21.7m tons this year, down 38% y/y

Malaysia’s August exports rise 18.4%, above forecast

Malaysia’s exports in August rose 18.4% from a year earlier, more than expected, government data showed on Tuesday.​ August’s exports were expected to rise 14.6%, according to 14 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll. Imports in August grew 12.5% from a year earlier, the data showed. Analysts were expecting a 24.5% rise, according to 14 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll. Malaysia’s trade surplus in August was 21.4 billion ringgit. Analysts had forecast a surplus of 11.8 billion ringgit.

ADM’s Ama, Reserve Elevators in Louisiana Are Fully Operational

Crop shipper Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s Ama and Reserve elevators in coastal Louisiana are once again fully operational after recovering from Hurricane Ida damages, the company says Monday in an emailed statement. A vessel was loaded in Destrehan and the site is expected to be fully operational by the end of the week

Pakistan Expects Fy22 Wheat Output to Surpass 27.5M Tons

Estimate released after meeting by wheat review committee, Pakistan’s food security ministry says in statement.