Global Ag News For Sept 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ethanol producer Inpasa wants to decentralize Brazil’s biofuel supply, company says

Ethanol producer Inpasa will focus on driving demand in regions like Brazil’s North and Northeast as it looks to decentralize the supply of the biofuel, the company’s vice president of trading Gustavo Mariano Oliveira said.

While ethanol produced from sugarcane has long dominated biofuel production and use in Brazil’s most developed Southeast region, including in the main fuel-consuming state of Sao Paulo, Inpasa mostly produces ethanol from corn in central Brazil.

Corn is fueling ethanol’s output increase even as sugarcane-based fuel growth stagnates. According to Brazil’s government, corn-based ethanol is expected to grow by more than 60% between 2025 and 2035 to 16.3 billion liters.

“It’s precisely about decentralizing Brazil’s ethanol supply hubs and bringing as much biofuel as possible into the … consumption cycle for light engines in Brazil,” Oliveira said in an interview on Tuesday.

At the end of last month, Inpasa said it would team up with agricultural group Amaggi, a leading Brazilian grain processor and exporter, to build at least three corn ethanol plants in the state of Mato Grosso.

However, Inpasa is not relying just on corn to fuel ethanol’s expansion to Brazil’s North and Northeast, Oliveira said, adding that sorghum is already being used by the company.

Sorghum’s more resilient nature makes it a suitable alternative in regions with greater fluctuations in climate, he added.

“It’s a complementary idea, mainly based in regions where you have a different climatic diversity than the climatic stability you have in the Brazilian Central-West,” he said.

Inpasa’s operations in Paraguay, where it first started with corn ethanol production, have managed to achieve greenhouse gas savings of 92%, making its ethanol an attractive option for buyers looking for greener fuel options, Oliveira said.

“I believe we’ll export a lot of ethanol from Brazil, not just (from) corn, but sugarcane as well,” he said. “South American ethanol should be increasingly popular in other global markets.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil up 0.07.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 19 in SRW, down 14 in HRW, down 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 24; Soymeal down $2.80; Soyoil down 0.79.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.2% in SRW, down 13.3% in HRW, down 8.0% in HRS; Corn is down 13.1%; Soybeans up 0.7%; Soymeal down 4.7%; Soyoil up 26.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil down 30; Palm oil down 66; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is up 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+0.88%) at 4452.

There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats, 154 Corn, -22 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 159 Oats; 154 Corn; 203 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 97 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 10 were: SRW Wheat up 2,733 contracts, HRW Wheat up 398, Corn up 4,181, Soybeans up 12,421, Soymeal down 1,115, Soyoil up 792.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 11 SEPTEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Soil moisture is locally high in the western Corn Belt, and expected rains over the coming 10 days may lead to regional waterlogging
• SOUTH AMERICA: Our recent ENSO outlook indicates a split precipitation across South America in December-February, with wet weather in Brazil and dry in Argentina
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Wet conditions over the next 10 days in Indonesia will be favorable for long-term palm oil production and reduce soil moisture deficits
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Rainfall activity observed and forecast in the Central Highlands bodes very well for Robusta coffee blooming
• TROPICS: Tropical Cyclone Three is moving over the western Indian Ocean toward Africa and is anticipated to dissipate within 48 hours without affecting land

 

Northern Plains: While some corn and soybeans may have been damaged from frosts this past weekend, the frost risk will be minimal for the rest of this week and through mid-September as temperatures will largely remain above average. Precipitation chances look steady into next week ahead of corn and soybean harvest and any rainfall will be helpful for crops that are finishing maturing. However, any heavier rainfall would slow down the remaining spring wheat harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers will be possible the rest of this week with small disturbances moving through the region. A stronger system will move into the region this weekend with more widespread rainfall being possible. For those trying to harvest, showers will be unfortunate, causing delays. But for those still looking for one more rain, there are some good chances yet.

Midwest: Frost this past weekend and earlier this week occurred in areas that had very good yield prospects and likely reduced yields where they occurred. The frost risk will be minimal through mid-September as temperatures warm up again. Dry weather in the south and east continue to have negative effects on filling corn and soybeans, but that time has likely run out for any rainfall to have a positive impact there. Showers favor mainly the western Midwest through the end of the week before a front could lead to showers in Illinois and Indiana this weekend.

Delta: Drought is expanding and water levels are falling on the Lower Mississippi River. Conditions are favored to remain mostly dry through this weekend before more moisture arrives next week. Next week’s rain may end up being daytime showers and storms that are often spotty and provide insignificant help to drought conditions.

Brazil: Spring planting will begin shortly in the south and will increase going into October. A few light but spotty rain showers are possible across the region early next week, but until then, conditions will be dry for the rest of this week. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive, and the newest model runs have showers starting to arrive next week, which would be early and could cause some early soybean planting.

Argentina: Recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting. Widespread frost has not been beneficial for either though, and may have caused damage to wheat. Soil moisture is good enough to plant, and producers may be able to get back out in the fields the rest of the week as low temperatures may stay just above freezing each morning.

Europe: Waves of rain have been falling across the continent over the last couple of weeks and more are forecast to move through into next week. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also ahead of winter wheat planting which starts up this month.

Black Sea: Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not with a very poor end to the season. However, a small system in the Black Sea may bring showers through Ukraine and southwestern Russia on Wednesday before being pushed south again. Any rainfall would be helpful for what remains of filling corn and prepping soils for winter wheat planting that starts over the next couple of weeks. Next week, rainfall looks limited again with high pressure dominating the weather pattern across southwest Russia.

Australia: Widespread showers will continue across eastern areas on Wednesday, which would be helpful with more wheat and canola getting into reproductive stages. However, colder temperatures may bring a risk of frost over the next several days too, which could be damaging. Another front will crash into Western Australia this weekend and eventually move into southeastern areas early next week, providing isolated showers.

China: Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting. Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which is also beneficial.

 

The player sheet for 9/10 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) and its member company Cargill Agri Purina issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• U.S. SORGHUM PURCHASE: Buyers in Pakistan are believed to have bought about five shipments of the grain sorghum from the United States after serious floods damaged Pakistan’s crops
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons.

PENDING TENDERS

• Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 tons of crude sunflower oil
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tons of soft milling wheat.
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.2% to 22.837M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.567 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.105m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.078m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 4.

• Corn est. range 900k – 2,400k tons, with avg of 1,583k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 950k

 

US biofuel plan would reallocate half or less of waived blending quotas, sources say

• White House reviewing EPA plan for large refiners to cover 50% or less of waived biofuel gallons
• Proposal likely to draw fire from farm-state lawmakers and support from oil industry
• Proposal may lower renewable fuel credit prices
• EPA aims to stabilize RINs market while easing compliance costs for refiners

The White House is considering a plan that would require large oil refineries to cover around half or less of the biofuel blending requirements recently waived for smaller facilities, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

The proposal submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency and now under review by the White House would require large refiners to cover a range of about 50% or less of the 1.1 billion gallons of the renewable fuel exempted last month for small plants, according to the sources.

That could mean roughly 550 million gallons of lost demand, potentially increasing the supply of renewable fuel credits and putting downward pressure on their price.

The plan, if adopted, would likely frustrate biofuel producers and farm-state lawmakers who want full restoration of lost demand caused by small refinery exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard, the nation’s biofuel law.

The RFS requires refiners to blend billions of gallons of biofuels into the country’s fuel pool each year or buy credits called RINs from those who do. But it also allows smaller refiners to apply for waivers if they can show the requirements would cause them financial hardship.

The EPA in August cleared a backlog of more than 170 small refinery exemption requests dating back to 2016 — a sweeping move that required it to come up with the plan to account for waived obligations.

The EPA was only required to come up with a plan to reallocate exempted gallons dating back to 2023, however, because RINs generated for previous years have already expired.

The sources said that the review includes the years 2023 and beyond, and the percentages could be applied higher or lower in different years.

The plan remains under review and subject to change, the sources cautioned. It is expected to be released in the upcoming weeks, ahead of an October 30 deadline to finalize biofuel blending quotas for the 2026-2027 years.

“The EPA is in the process of evaluating a range of options that strike an appropriate balance between obligations, reallocation, and other factors that will deliver for farmers, consumers and American energy dominance,” a White House official told Reuters.

The EPA declined to provide details of the proposal.

The biofuel industry and its legislative allies have been urging the administration to require refiners to offset 100% of those exempted gallons, while the oil industry is resisting the obligations.

The EPA’s proposal is intended to be a compromise that would keep the market for RINs stable by avoiding a flood of new credits that could depress prices, while also not imposing additional burdens on refiners already facing compliance costs.

The middle ground proposal highlights the long-running clash between Big Oil and the farm lobby — two powerful constituencies that have battled for years over the future of the RFS. That divide threatens to complicate President Donald Trump’s efforts to unify Republicans ahead of a looming budget fight.

The 2023 and 2024 exempted gallons totaled some 1.4 billion credits, equaling some 1.1 billion gallons. The total number of exempted gallons will likely rise as the EPA deals with pending 2025 applications.

 

China Summons Pig Breeders Over Cuts to Tackle Oversupply

China’s government has summoned its biggest pig breeders to discuss measures to cut production, in its latest move to tackle oversupply and bolster prices.

Some 25 farming companies, including Muyuan Foods Co. and Wens Foodstuff Group Co., have been asked to gather in Beijing on Sept. 16 to share their plans on output control and highlight measures taken so far, according to a notice issued to the firms by the agriculture ministry and viewed by Bloomberg.

Attendees must submit in advance details of their targets for cutting sow numbers by January, and their production plans for the year ahead, the ministry’s animal husbandry bureau said.

The meeting, first reported by local media Cailian, will include the government’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the notice.

Shares of pig producers surged, with Muyuan rising as much as 7.5% and Wens as much as 6.6%.

The farm ministry didn’t immediately reply to a fax seeking comment.

China, the world’s largest pork producer, has urged farmers to cut the nation’s breeding herd this year, to deal with a supply glut and deflationary pressures in the economy. Wholesale prices of pork have plunged almost 25% in the past twelve months as consumption has weakened due to the economic slowdown.

 

SovEcon Ups Russia Wheat Forecast on Good Siberia, Urals Yields

Russia’s wheat production is expected to reach 87.2m tons in the 2025-26 season, according to agriculture consultancy SovEcon, up from a forecast of 86.1m tons earlier this week.

• The new numbers reflect stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia and the Urals, where crops are approaching record levels
• The estimate for the Central region has been slightly trimmed due to smaller yields by the end of harvest, likely due to rain-related delays
• “The steady upgrades to Russia’s crop outlook in recent weeks are one of the major bearish stories for the global wheat market. Still, much of this improvement is in the Asian part of the country, where moving wheat to ports is costly and slow,” says SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov

 

IKAR Raises 2025 Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast to 87m Tons

IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest in 2025 to 87 million tons, up from 86m tons, according to Director General Dmitry Rylko.

• The revision is due to “record-high” yield in the eastern part of Russia’s wheat belt, Rylko said
• IKAR also increased its wheat export forecast for the 2025-26 season by 1 million tons to 44m tons

 

Argentina corn on track for record season as farmers shift from soy

Argentina could report a record corn production in the 2025/26 season as farmers shift away from soybeans and other crops, a leading grains exchange said on Wednesday.

The Rosario grains exchange forecasts the coming corn crop to yield an output of 61 million metric tons, provided the crop experiences normal rainfall during its growth cycle.

At the same time, the exchange projected that soybean planting will fall 7% year-on-year to 16.4 million hectares, with production expected to reach 47 million tons.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also projected a decline in soybean area, though smaller, estimating a 4.3% drop to 17.6 million hectares – due mainly due to farmers opting for other crops such as corn and sunflower, adding that soybean profitability remains low or even negative in some regions.

Argentina’s previous record corn harvest was 52.5 million tons in 2023/24, according to Rosario.

The exchange said its record forecast depends on normal rainfall during the crop’s development period. Current weather models indicate low chances of El Nino or La Nina during the southern summer, a favorable outlook for corn yields.

Planting for the 2025/26 corn crop has already begun, while soybean planting will start in late September and October.

Rosario also raised its estimate for the almost completed 2024/25 corn harvest to 50 million tons, up from 48.5 million last month. Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter and the leading global supplier of soybean oil and meal.

 

China clears imports of Brazil sorghum, first cargo likely in 2025, says official

China has approved imports of Brazilian sorghum, an official at Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry told Reuters, adding that the first cargos could be shipped this year, providing an alternative to plunging U.S. exports sooner than expected by many.

China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) wrote to Brazil saying that its sorghum is eligible for shipment, Eduardo Porto Magalhaes, coordinator for international phytosanitary inspection and certification at the Brazilian ministry, said in an interview on Tuesday.

The designation follows an early August visit by a Chinese delegation to meet with sorghum producers in Brazil. China first announced plans to import Brazilian sorghum during President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Brasilia in November 2024, which marked an upgrade in the status of bilateral relations.

“The next steps are to register Brazilian companies, exporters, and producers that intend to export to China. We’ve already completed the first round of registrations for these companies and will now submit them to China,” Magalhaes said.

The first sorghum exports could leave Brazil for China in the next 60 days, Magalhaes said.

Representatives for Brazilian sorghum and corn farming group Abramilho had said in August they did not expect to ship the current crop to China.

GACC was not immediately available to respond to questions.

The agreement comes at a time when relations between China and the United States – traditionally a major exporter of sorghum to the Asian country – have sharply deteriorated amid trade tariffs, with U.S. sorghum exports to China plummeting.

U.S. sorghum exports to China this year through July stood at just 82,323 metric tons, down 97% from the same period a year earlier, according to U.S. Census Bureau trade data.

Brazil’s sorghum production doubled in just a few years to 4.4 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season, according to national crop agency Conab, but the country’s exports still represent less than 1% of the international market.

Sorghum producers are hopeful that Chinese interest can boost demand for their crop.

“I believe that the demand for sorghum exports will encourage the growth of sorghum planting here in Brazil,” Pedro Ottoni, director for the International Maize Alliance and sorghum producer who hosted the Chinese delegation, told Reuters.

“Brazil will stand out in global sorghum production,” he said.

 

U.S. corn production slightly down as harvest begins amid volatile weather

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 415 [408–421] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is fractionally (<1%) lowered to 415 [408–421] million tons reflecting declining condition scores amid volatile late season weather, as harvest season begins in earnest. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 August), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 425.3 million tons, above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 96.4 million acres, up 6.4% from last season, which is 0.89 million acres below the USDA’s August estimate of 97.25 million acres. Yield is estimated at 185.3 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 188.8 bpa), which leads to a production of 16.32 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 16.74 billion bushels). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 September) had analysts’ own estimates for corn production and yield on average at 16.45 billion bushels and 185.0 bushels per acre, respectively. The recently concluded (18-21 August) ProFarmer Crop Tour has found the strong potential for a record high corn yield/production this season as expected, but ultimately pegged them at 182.7 bpa and 16.2 billion bushels, respectively, both below the USDA’s and our latest projections.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 08 September) put total national-level corn harvest at 4%, in line with last year’s pace of 5% and the five-year average of 3%. Crop condition scores continue to remain around 5-year high, but have been on a consistent downward trend since early August at the national level, currently indicating 68% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 64%). Much of the decline in condition scores is attributed to the recent volatile weather, including abnormal temperature drops that occurred during the past two weeks (up to -10 °F from normal), as well as lingering lack of moisture throughout the central/southern parts of the main Corn Belt (up to 80 mm below normal over the past 30 days). Some localized crop disease issues (due to excessive wetness during the mid-season) that were prevalent across the western-central and northern parts of the Corn Belt during mid-August also weighed in. Most key areas of the Corn Belt are now expected to see a shift in temperature pattern and welcome warm weather going into mid-September, but dryness might continue to hinder late season development locally (though should be overall favorable for maturing crops to dry-out), warranting attention.

 

Declining condition scores slightly lower U.S. soybean production

2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 116 [112–119] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. soybean production is fractionally (<1%) lowered to 116 [112–119] million tons reflecting declining condition scores amid volatile late season weather, with crop maturity in full swing and harvest season immediately around the corner. In its latest WASDE report (released on 12 August), USDA pegged U.S. soybean production at 116.8 million tons, slightly above our median projection. Our current estimate puts planted area at 82.5 million acres, down 5.2% from last season, which is 1.6 million acres above the USDA’s August estimate of 80.9 million acres. Yield is estimated at 52.0 bushels per acre (bpa) (vs. USDA’s 53.6 bpa), which leads to a production of 4.25 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s 4.29 billion bushels). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 September) had analysts’ own estimates for soybean production and yield on average at 4.24 billion bushels and 52.8 bushels per acre, respectively. The recently concluded (18-21 August) ProFarmer Crop Tour has found the strong potential for a high soybean yield but a production below last season due to reduced area, pegging them at 53 bpa and 4.25 billion bushels, respectively, both below the USDA’s latest projection.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 08 September) put total national-level soy dropping leaves at 21%, slightly behind last year’s 23% and the five-year average of 22%. Crop condition scores are now no longer around 5-year high at the national level, with currently 64% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 65%), which is a 5% drop from a month ago. Much of the decline in condition scores is attributed to the recent volatile weather, including abnormal temperature drops that occurred during the past two weeks (up to -10 °F from normal), as well as lingering lack of moisture throughout the central/southern parts of the main Soy Belt (up to 80 mm below normal over the past 30 days). Some localized crop disease issues (due to excessive wetness during the mid-season) that were prevalent across the western-central and northern parts of the Soy Belt during mid-August also weighed in. Most key areas of the Soy Belt are now expected to see a shift in temperature pattern and welcome warm weather going into mid-September, but dryness might continue to hinder late season development locally (though should be overall favorable for maturing crops to dry-out), warranting attention.

 

Recent and expected weather maintains positive outlook for China corn production

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 298.8 [295.2–301.7] MILLION TONS, DOWN FRACTIONALLY FROM LAST UPDATE

The past two weeks in Northeast China saw warm temperatures and small precipitation deficits. Weather forecasts predict improved precipitation and cold anomalies after mid-September. Current and expected conditions pose no threat to corn production, and high NDVI values (vegetation densities) indicate healthy crops and strong yield potential in the key corn-producing provinces like Liaoning, Nei Mongol, Jilin, and Heilongjiang.

The North China Plain has recently experienced above-average precipitation, which has replenished soil moisture levels. Additionally, recent weeks have seen a shift from prolonged hot temperatures to a more normal temperature pattern. While crops are unlikely to fully recover from earlier drought, the normalized temperatures and improved precipitation have contributed to stabilizing crop conditions. We have thus maintained yield estimates for provinces in the North China Plain with little changes.

China total corn production for 2025/26 is estimated at 298.8 million tons, which is 3.8 million tons higher than the previous year.

 

 

 

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