Global Ag News For Sept 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Comments Worry Renewable Fuel Markets — Market Talk

President Trump’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly contained language that ran in opposition to the U.S. renewable fuel sector. This has some traders and analysts wondering how committed to a home-grown power solution Trump is. “The negative comments made listeners feel like biofuels are part of the ‘big green lie,'” says AgResource in a note. The president’s stance on renewable fuels is of interest to U.S. agricultural markets, who hope to see higher consumption of fuels made from feedstocks like corn and soybeans to support those underlying prices. Most-active corn futures on the CBOT are up 0.8%, and soybeans are flat.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 1/2 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $7.40; Soyoil down 0.96.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 11 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans down 46; Soymeal down $12.40; Soyoil down 2.49.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.5% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 4.5% in HRS; Corn is down 7.0%; Soybeans up 1.0%; Soymeal down 11.0%; Soyoil up 23.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal down 32; Soyoil down 40; Palm oil down 8; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 29.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 29 ringgit (+0.67%) at 4372.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 140 Oats; 91 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 45 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 23 were: SRW Wheat down 2,304 contracts, HRW Wheat down 606, Corn up 2,036, Soybeans down 1,346, Soymeal up 8,432, Soyoil down 6,259.

 

Warm and dry weather likely to dominate North American weather pattern in October, except along the east coast

What to Watch:

• Widespread warmth expected across much of the continent
• Dry weather likely in central parts of Canada and the U.S.
• Enhanced tropical risks headline an otherwise quiet month of crop impacts

Northern Plains: Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and likely next week as well. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavy rain moved into the region late Monday with showers continuing through Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions after Wednesday will be more favorable for harvest.

Midwest: Scattered showers continue in the region through Thursday as another system moves through. The showers are likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and next week will promote harvest.

Delta: Scattered showers will increase as another system moves through the region Tuesday and Thursday, which could lead to some heavy amounts. That will help with the expanding drought and promote rises on the Mississippi River, or at least stop its decline. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

Brazil: A strong cold front moved from southern Brazil into central Brazil on Monday and has stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days before it fizzles out. In that time, scattered rainfall could add up to significant amounts that would technically be the start of the wet season. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still have to wait for showers to be more consistent to get a start on planting. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

Argentina: A front moved through over the weekend with widespread rainfall for much of the country’s growing areas. Cold air that moved in behind that front led to limited frosts across southeastern areas of the country, which may cause some damage to wheat and delay producers from planting corn. That is not a concern, but would push more corn into the late-planting window, subjecting more of the crop to potential harm from the developing La Nina. Soybean planting will begin in October.

 

The player sheet for 9/23 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 122,947 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday. Of the total, 100,593 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, and 22,354 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
• MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought about 500,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Tuesday bought about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• SOYBEAN PURCHASE: Importers in Pakistan purchased an estimated 180,000 metric tons of soybeans in September expected to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: A state grains buyer in Syria continues to consider price offers in an international tender to buy about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed last week with no purchase yet made.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of soymea
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 19 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.039m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.462m bbl vs 22.602m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Sept. 1 Hog Herd Seen at 75.83M Head

Sept. 1 hog inventory seen up 0.5% y/y, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• Breeding inventory seen down 0.5% y/y, and market hogs seen rising 0.5% y/y
• The June-Aug pig crop seen rising by 0.5% y/y to 35.15m head
• June-Aug farrowing seen falling by 0.5% y/y
• Forrowing intentions for Sept-Nov seen up 0.5% and Dec-Feb seen up 0.4%
• USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly estimates at 3pm ET on Sept. 25

 

China expands Argentina soybean buying to 20 cargoes, traders say

• China buys 20 Argentine soybean cargoes after tax drop
• Most cargoes set for shipment in key period dominated by U.S.
• Analysts expect increased purchases ahead of policy expiry

Chinese importers kept up a hectic pace of Argentine soybean purchases after the South American supplier’s move to abolish export taxes temporarily made its prices competitive, traders said on Wednesday.

The purchases are chipping away at U.S. market share as its farmers begin harvesting a bumper crop shunned by China amid a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Since Argentina lifted its tax on Monday, Chinese buyers have booked about 20 cargoes, or roughly 1.3 million tons of Argentinian soybeans, two traders said.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Chinese buyers had ordered at least 10 cargoes, with one trader putting the figure at 15 Panamax-sized cargoes of 65,000 metric tons each.

U.S. soybeans have become prohibitively expensive for Chinese buyers, thanks to retaliatory tariffs imposed by Beijing in their trade war.

“Essentially China will have enough beans without U.S. beans,” said one trader at an international firm that ships beans to China and is one of the buyers of such cargoes.

“Most of the cargoes are for November shipment and around 20% are for shipment next year from the new Argentinian crop that will be harvested from April.”

The traders spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, as the matter is a sensitive one.

The purchases include a mix of old and new crops, priced at a premium of about $2 a bushel to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean contract SX25, the two Asian traders said.

Argentina said the grain tax suspension will run through October or until declared exports reach $7 billion, a move that has driven Chinese soymeal futures lower.

The continued purchases from Argentina are helping China fill more supply gaps during a period usually dominated by U.S. sellers, the traders added. Beijing has not yet booked any U.S. soybeans from its autumn harvest, traders have said.

Chinese crushing margins for Argentine soybeans are attractive at about 200 yuan ($28) a ton, said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Sublime China Information.

“China is likely to further accelerate purchases of Argentine soybeans to fill the procurement gap from November to January before the October 31 deadline or the $7-billion quota limit,” Wang said.

“This will further reduce the market’s reliance on U.S. soybeans.”

 

Indonesia July Palm Oil Exports Fall to 3.537m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 3.537m tons in July from 3.606m tons in June, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output rose to 5.606m tons from 5.289m tons in June
• Palm oil stockpiles rise to 2.568m tons from 2.530m tons in June
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 2.034m tons from 2.072m tons in June
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 1.051m tons from 1.080m tons in June

 

Palm Oil May Surpass 5,000 Ringgit on Supply Crunch, Mistry Says

Palm oil may climb about 15% from current levels to exceed 5,000 ringgit ($1,191) a ton by year-end, after the crop’s seasonally-high production cycle ends, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

Prices of the world’s most-consumed cooking oil may even jump to 5,500 ringgit, the highest since June 2022, in the first quarter of next year if top grower Indonesia continues to seize plantations and raises the biofuel mix in diesel to 50%, Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said in slides prepared for a conference in Colombia on Tuesday.

“Palm oil production has become flat,” said Mistry, who has been trading vegetable oils for over three decades. Palm oil’s productivity growth has slipped to zero or even negative, while planting of soybeans, sunflower and rapeseed is not expanding because oilseed prices are not attractive, he said.

Mistry’s comments come at a time when investors are dealing with volatile prices, driven by trade tensions and uncertain supplies. Palm oil, used in both food and biofuels, has struggled to regain momentum after a sharp rally earlier this year. As the tropical oil reacts to supply changes in top growers and shifts in energy policy, weaker-than-expected production or more oil used for fuel could push up global food inflation and raise industrial costs.

“If Indonesia goes to B50, there will be shortages of palm oil and prices will rocket,” Mistry said, adding that the Southeast Asian nation should lift its moratorium on new plantations as it has led to a stagnation in production.

However, Indonesia’s policy of taking control of “private but not fully legal plantations is a big worry” as estates that have been seized or are slated for takeover will show a decline in their productivity, he said. In neighboring Malaysia, palm trees are aging and there’s been very little replanting, he said.

Prices of soybean oil, palm’s closest food and fuel rival, will also remain strong due to the US biodiesel regime and could climb to 70 cents a pound, Mistry said. That would be a jump of more than 40% from current levels.

 

China expects bumper grain harvest for 2025

China is expected to secure a bumper grain harvest this year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Tuesday.

To date, nearly 20 percent of this year’s autumn grain has been harvested nationwide. A stable summer grain output and an increase in early rice production laid a solid foundation for the country’s annual grain harvest despite the droughts and floods it experienced earlier this year, the ministry said.

The summer grain output reached 149.74 million tonnes, and the early rice output came in at 28.52 million tonnes, which was up 340,000 tonnes from last year, data from the ministry shows.

Autumn crops are the mainstay of China’s annual grain production, and their planting area has been expanded and they are growing better than average.

Technological advancement has become a key grain-harvest booster, with its contribution rate rising to 63.2 percent. New corn, soybean and rice varieties developed by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences have supported the grain yield increase to a significant degree.

Advanced domestic farming machinery such as hybrid tractors and orchard robots are also being applied to improve efficiency.

Supported by higher-quality and more efficient agricultural processing, farmers are also seeing stronger income growth. In 2024, the per capita disposable income of rural residents rose to 23,119 yuan (about 3,254 U.S. dollars), and more than 100,000 large-scale agricultural processing enterprises — each with an annual main business turnover of at least 20 million yuan — were operating nationwide.

China has introduced measures to boost agricultural consumption, leading e-commerce companies to launch promotions and financial institutions to offer incentives. In July, the central government issued a plan to further promote agricultural product consumption, aiming to optimize supply, improve distribution and stimulate market demand.

 

 

 

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