Global Ag News For Sept 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Kazakhstan ships first batch of sunflower oil to China in 40-foot containers

Kazakhstan has shipped a pilot batch of sunflower oil to China in 40-foot containers equipped with flexitanks, the national railway carrier Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) said in a press release.

The sunflower oil was dispatched from the Predgornaya railway station in East Kazakhstan Region to the city of Nantong in China’s Jiangsu Province via the Dostyk-Alashankou border crossing.

KTZ has been exporting vegetable oils in 20-foot containers since 2020.

“The transportation in 40-foot containers opens additional opportunities for expanding export volumes. Over the past five years, supplies of vegetable oils to China have grown tenfold,” the press release says.

Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Ministry said the country’s production of vegetable oil from January to July 2025 increased by 24% compared to the same period last year, rising from 420,500 tonnes to 521,200 tonnes. This includes 457,700 tonnes of sunflower oil produced in January-July 2025 or a year-on-year increase of 24.5%.

The ministry also reported that in 2024, Kazakhstan produced 753,000 tonnes of vegetable oil, a 12% rise from 2023 (672,100 tonnes).

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $4.60; Soyoil up 0.30.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.0% in SRW, down 13.6% in HRW, down 7.0% in HRS; Corn is down 12.1%; Soybeans up 2.8%; Soymeal down 9.7%; Soyoil up 30.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil down 32; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 35.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 35 ringgit (-0.78%) at 4441.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 176 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 475 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 2 were: SRW Wheat up 9,734 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,763, Corn up 10,489, Soybeans down 1,310, Soymeal up 6,026, Soyoil up 5,921.

 

SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

What to Watch:

• Well below normal temperatures across parts of the U.S. in the next 5 days, return to normal or above normal temperatures after
• Dry weather ahead across most U.S. croplands

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 9/2 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 10,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 69% G/E, Soybeans 65%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 69% G/E vs 71% last week, and 65% a year ago
• Soybeans 65% G/E vs 69% last week, and 65% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 72% G/E vs 53% last week, and 67% a year ago
• Cotton 51% G/E vs 54% last week, and 44% a year ago

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 455.8M Bu in July

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 5.8% lower than in July 2024
• In total, mills consumed 506m bu of corn in July, a 5.9% decline over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.863m tons

 

US Soybean Crushings at 204.8M Bushels in July: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 5.9% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 5.6% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 6.7% y/y

 

US Inspected 1.407m Tons of Corn for Export, 473k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 28, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 473k tons vs 393k the previous wk, 503k a yr ago
• Wheat: 803k tons vs 1,020k the previous wk, 604k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,407k tons vs 1,339k the previous wk, 967k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 28

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 28 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Vietnam-bound shipments made up 126k tons of the 473k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Australia Says China Canola Export Pact Nearing Completion

A framework to restart Australia’s canola exports to China is close to being finalized, according to a government report, the first official indication from Canberra that it’s nearing a deal on the issue.

“A phytosanitary framework addressing China’s concerns is near completion, which will pave the way for five trial shipments,” according to a quarterly commodities report from the Australian Department of Agriculture released on Tuesday.

China suspended imports of Australian canola, also known as rapeseed, in late 2020 saying that it had detected blackleg disease in some shipments. The decision coincided with a range of punitive trade measures from Beijing in response to Canberra’s calls for an international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.

Bloomberg earlier reported that China had booked at least three shipments of Australian canola. That followed the Asian nation’s move to place heavy tariffs on Canada, formerly its largest supplier of the oilseed — usually crushed for animal feed in China.

Canada’s trade restrictions “may create an opportunity” for Australian canola producers, depending on the success of the trial shipments, the report said.

 

SovEcon Ups 2025-26 Russian Wheat Export Forecast to 43.7m Tons

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat exports by 0.4m tons, citing improved crop prospects, the consultancy said in a note.

• Increase follows an upgrade to the season’s production forecast
• Despite the “relatively favorable” crop outlook SovEcon remains “cautious” about raising the forecast further, as exports have had a slow start
• Wheat shipments in July–August are estimated at 6.1m tons, down sharply from 9.9m tons last year and a five-year average of 8.1m tons.
  • “September shipments are also expected to remain at historically low levels”: Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Meanwhile, Argentina and Australia are emerging as stronger competitors, with bigger crops on the way
• “Russia needs to capture new demand to lift exports in the coming months. It’s hard to be bullish wheat right now.”: Sizov

 

Russia’s bid to gain access to China’s wheat market still stalled, agriculture minister says

Russia’s efforts to gain access to China’s vast wheat market have stalled due to Beijing’s reluctance to authorize imports of Russian winter wheat, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies on Tuesday.

Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter, and Lut is part of a delegation of officials and business leaders accompanying President Vladimir Putin on a visit to China, where President Xi Jinping hosted a summit of more than 20 leaders from non-Western countries.

After several record years, China and Russia are seeking ways to bolster weakening trade. The two countries signed major energy agreements during Putin’s visit, but Lut acknowledged there had been no progress on wheat.

“We are very hopeful because we do not quite understand the rationale for rejecting winter wheat,” Lut was quoted as saying.

Russia is selling a range of its agriculture products from pork to vegetable oil to ice cream to China but a major wheat deal between the world’s top when exporter and the world’s largest wheat consumer remains elusive.

Lut’s remarks contradicted the general upbeat tone from Putin’s four-day visit aimed to strengthen the “no limits’ partnership between neighbours. In a separate note, the ministry said Russian agriculture exports to China have grown by 10% this year.

Russia currently sells most of its wheat to traditional customers in the Middle East and North Africa via its Black Sea grain terminals, but it is looking to diversify into new markets in Asia and Latin America.

China allows imports of some Russian spring wheat, but the bulk of Russia’s export-quality wheat is winter wheat. Despite its geographic position, Russia currently lags leading grain suppliers to China, such as Canada and Australia.

Russian Grain Union lobby head Arkady Zlochevsky said earlier this year that there was no top-level political decision in China regarding Russian winter wheat imports. Talks at a ministerial level in May during Xi’s visit to Moscow yielded no results.

“It is exactly the same wheat as spring wheat, and it is subject to the same phytosanitary requirements regarding the absence of quarantine organisms,” Lut was quoted as saying.

 

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks seen rising for sixth straight month in August

• August stocks likely to rise 4.06% to 2.2 mln MT – poll
• Output forecast to climb 2.5% to 1.86 mln MT
• Exports projected to increase 10.7% to 1.45 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on September 10

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are forecast to rise for a sixth consecutive month in August, as production continues to outpace exports despite a recovery in demand, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.

Palm oil stocks are expected to climb to their highest level since December 2023 at 2.2 million metric tons, up 4.06% from July, according to a median estimate of nine traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters. MYPOMS-TPO

Crude palm oil output is projected to rise for a second straight month. Output is seen at 1.86 million metric tons, a peak since August last year, and up 2.5% from July. MYPOMP-CPOTT

The rise in production is only a marginal improvement as output in previous years generally saw double-digit growth during this period, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari.

“We are not seeing (higher production) now due to the older trees and the lack of replanting,” Supramaniam said.

Exports of palm oil products are expected to climb 10.7% to 1.45 million metric tons for the second straight month, with volumes hitting a nine-month high, the survey showed. MYPOME-PO

“Demand is also gaining traction, which will keep palm oil prices resilient,” Supramaniam added.

Crude palm oil prices are now trading at a discount to soyoil prices after commanding a premium earlier this year.

The discount has been prompting Indian buyers to increase palm oil purchases for the upcoming festival season, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its monthly data on September 10.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 44% Y/y in Season Through Aug. 31

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled about 2.57m tons as of Aug. 31, compared with 4.6m tons for a similar period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Saudi Arabia (380k tons), Morocco (222k tons) and the UK (154k tons)
• Barley exports were about 1.6m tons, up 21% y/y
• Corn imports total 1.88m tons, down 50% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: The commission said export data is incomplete for France since the start of 2024 and missing for the 2025-26 season
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season. Import data for Romania is missing for the past four weeks
  • It said it’s working to resolve the issue

 

Trades are still limited; harvesting starts in Parana

Cepea, September 2, 2025 – Wheat mills claim to be supplied; thus, trades of wheat grain continued limited in late August. Sellers were focused on the development of the crops, on crop activities and on the harvesting beginning in Southern Brazil. Players who have immediate needs ended up being more flexible about quotations, while wheat mills that have stocks offered lower prices. Moreover, the proximity of a high volume from the 2025 season, good perspectives of productivity, the low exchange rate and the high global supply reinforce the pressure on domestic quotations.

In Paraná, data from Seab/Deral released on August 26 indicate that the 2025 harvesting has started in Paraná, reaching 2% of the total area so far. In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater/RS says that the recent rainfall has not damaged crops significantly.

In August/25, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,433.50 per ton, downing 2.9% against July/25 and 9.4% in relation to that in August/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,291.08/ton, 2% down in one month and -12.2% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.431.12/ton, -4.6% and -12.6% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,432.41/ton in August, decreasing 0.6% compared to July and 7.6% against that in the same month last year.

 

Trump EPA’s Plan for Refinery Biofuel Quotas Advances to Review

A drafted EPA proposal for reallocating biofuel-blending quotas to refineries that have not won exemptions from annual consumption mandates is now under interagency review at the White House.

• Draft measure entered interagency review at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on Aug. 29, according to an online notice, setting the stage for possible stakeholder meetings and public release within weeks
• NOTE: The supplemental proposal is designed to address quotas from small refineries that have won exemptions from the Renewable Fuel Standard quotas for 2023 and later compliance years
• Proposed adjustments would account for small refinery exemptions granted for 2023 and 2024 as well as those projected for 2025, 2026 and 2027
• Measure is meant to lay out options, with EPA casting potential adjustments as helping ensure refineries blend the intended volumes of renewable fuel into the nation’s fuel supply for 2026 and 2027

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in August: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 125 points in Aug. from 135 in July, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 2 points from July
• Future expectations down by 16 points

 

Brazil’s demand for fertilizer to rise, govt official says

Brazilian farmers’ demand for fertilizers will rise to 58.5 million tons per year by 2030 and will reach 73.1 million tons per year by 2036, Jose Polidoro, an official at Brazil’s agriculture minister, said on Tuesday.

Speaking at a fertilizer industry event, Polidoro said Brazil’s projected demand for fertilizers is based on the expectation that the country recovers vast areas of degraded pastureland and transforms them to plant commercial crops.

There are 82 million hectares of degraded pastureland in Brazil, Polidoro said, adding half of it could be transformed into land for agriculture. He also noted 60% of Brazil’s family farmers never used fertilizers, representing an opportunity for growth of the market.

Brazil, which Polidoro placed as “the second or third largest fertilizer consumer in the world,” is a farm powerhouse and the biggest exporter of commodities including soy, sugar, coffee and beef.

Brazilian fertilizer deliveries totaled 45.6 million tons in 2024, according to industry data compiled by fertilizer lobby Anda.

Additional demand for fertilizers in Brazil will pose challenges, especially regarding the logistics for distribution of products in states like Mato Grosso, Polidoro said.

 

Dry weather across Europe cuts EU-27 corn production prospects

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 EU-27 CORN PRODUCTION: 58.9 [56.0-61.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 EU-27 corn production has decreased to 58.9 [56.0-61.8] million tons, amid dry weather conditions in Southeastern and Western Europe. Over the past two weeks, cooler conditions prevailed in Central and Southeastern Europe, while France and Spain experienced warmer weather. Rainfall deficits in France, Spain, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary are raising concerns for crops conditions in key corn-producing regions. Our latest satellite imagery analysis indicates that crops are in worse than average conditions in France, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, lowering EU-27 corn yields to 6.84 t/ha.

According to the latest weather forecasts, warm conditions should occur in Central and Southeastern Europe and cooler in Western Europe. However, France, Germany, Italy, and parts of Poland will experience heavy rainfall, which could delay harvesting campaign.

 

Recent weather keeps 2025/26 Russian wheat production unchanged

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 83.4 [81.7-87.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent weather conditions maintain 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 83.4 [81.7-87.6] million tons (MMT), 59.14 MMT of winter wheat and 24.26 MMT of spring wheat. Our current estimate does not include occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

Over the past two weeks, cooler temperatures have occurred over the European parts of Russia, offering relief to drought-affected areas. Sporadic rainfall (10-18 mm above normal) occurred in Volga and Central Districts but has not disrupted harvesting in the region. Vegetation density index (NDVI) values in Central, Volga, Ural, and Siberian District exceeded the long-term median, indicating good crop conditions for spring wheat.

According to the latest weather forecasts, moderate temperatures should be in store across the continent. Rainfall should occur across spring wheat regions will the end of this week. The long-term weather forecast for September predicts cooler temperatures and relatively dry conditions across Russia, benefiting spring wheat harvest fieldwork.

 

Salmon Glut Could Crush Prices as New Farming Techniques Pay Off

A surfeit of salmon awaits as a potent mix of larger smolts and favorable sea conditions gives way to a bumper harvest, with salmon farmers raising their full-year production outlook. The flood of fish could push fresh salmon prices close to a five-year low — below 50 kroner a kilogram — keeping them down the rest of this year and possibly into 2026.

 

 

 

 

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