Global Ag News For Sept 8.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Canada pledges money, regulatory reform to boost biofuels

The Canadian government on Friday promised hundreds of millions of dollars and less onerous regulations to boost biofuels production, which the country’s agriculture minister said faces tough U.S. competition.

Prime Minister Mark Carney made support for biofuels and the canola industry one of six areas highlighted in an aid announcement designed to help companies deal with damage from U.S. tariffs and trade disruptions.

“We have the U.S. flooding the market with cheaper products, and we’ve got to do more for our guys here to ensure that they can continue to operate until we get clean fuels regulations amended,” Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald told Reuters.

Canadian canola, an ingredient in some biofuels, is also facing high duties and tariffs in China, the largest export market for canola seed.

The government pledged C$370 million ($267.79 million) in production incentives for Canadian biofuels producers and also said it would overhaul Canada’s biofuels regulations.

Canadian biofuels producers and the canola industry have complained for years that the U.S. provides more incentives for biofuels production than those in Canada, discouraging Canadian output. A Canadian government investigation into U.S. biofuels supports concluded in May that U.S. programs do not qualify as “dumping and subsidizing” that have hurt Canadian producers, though.

The U.S. Renewable Fuels Association said U.S. and Canadian producers both benefit from supportive biofuel policies and should work together.

Canadian producers have also complained that regulations are confusing and an obstacle to investment in the sector. During the April election, Carney pledged to improve the situation.

Canada’s largest renewable diesel facility, owned by Imperial Oil, which will use canola oil as one of its feedstocks, went into production in July. However, another major project was shelved this year over regulatory and trade concerns in Canada and the U.S.

Biofuels demand has become a key component in the world price of canola, as production in the U.S. and other countries has expanded in recent years and consumed a greater proportion of world vegetable oil crops.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil up 0.52.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 15 in SRW, down 13 3/4 in HRW, down 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 25 1/4; Soymeal down $4.70; Soyoil down 0.39.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.2% in SRW, down 13.9% in HRW, down 8.5% in HRS; Corn is down 13.4%; Soybeans up 0.8%; Soymeal down 8.8%; Soyoil up 27.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 8; Palm oil down 18; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 40.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 40 ringgit (+0.90%) at 4488.

There were changes in registrations (-16 Oats, -358 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 160 Oats; 0 Corn; 237 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 97 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 5 were: SRW Wheat up 894 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,371, Corn up 5,206, Soybeans up 9,005, Soymeal up 217, Soyoil up 3,840.

 

WARMTH TO CONTINUE ACROSS CANADIAN CROPLANDS, U.S. FACES ANOTHER COLD SPELL

LSEG

What to Watch:

• Cold and dry conditions in the U.S. Cron Belt will persist for the next 5-7 days before warming arrives
• Warm and dry weather across Canadian Prairies will support spring crop harvest but will not offer any moisture relief after recent heatwave

Northern Plains: Cold air over the weekend produced areas of frost in the Dakotas which may have been damaging to corn and soybeans in many locations. There is no more credible risk of frost for the rest of September. Spotty showers will be possible much of the week, though will favor Montana over other areas until a system moves into the region over the weekend. Any rainfall would be helpful.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers moved through the south over the weekend while the north was cool and dry behind a front. Isolated showers will be possible much of the week with small disturbances moving through the region. A stronger system will move into the region this weekend with more widespread rainfall being possible. For those trying to harvest, showers will be unfortunate, causing delays. But for those still looking for one more rain, there are some good chances yet.

Midwest: Cold air settled into the region over the weekend, producing some frosts in Minnesota and Wisconsin on Sunday morning. Temperatures reached below 40 as far south as northern Iowa and Illinois as well. Frosts will be possible in Michigan on Monday morning as well, but that would be the end of the frost risks for quite some time. The frosts occurred in areas that had very good yield prospects and likely reduced yields where they occurred. Dry weather in the south and east continue to have negative effects on filling corn and soybeans, but that time has likely run out for any rainfall to have a positive impact there. Showers are forecast in some areas this week, but will be more likely this weekend and next week.

Delta: Some showers moved through over the weekend, but had little to no impact on either the expanding drought or the falling water levels on the Lower Mississippi River. Dry conditions this week will only make both worse.

Brazil: Showers fell across parts of southern Brazil over the weekend and more are forecast for Monday as well. Spring planting will begin shortly in the south and will increase going into October. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive, and the newest model runs have showers starting to arrive next week, which would be early and could cause some early soybean planting.

Argentina: It was dry over the weekend, but recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting. Widespread frost has not been beneficial for either though, and may have caused damage to wheat. Soil moisture is good enough to plant, but producers may wait until the risk of frost is over.

Europe: Waves of rain have been falling across the continent over the last couple of weeks and more are forecast to move through this week as well. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also ahead of winter wheat planting which starts up this month.

Black Sea: Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not with a ver poor end to the season. However, a small system in the Black Sea may bring showers through Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the next few days before being pushed south again. Any rainfall would be helpful for what remains of filling corn and prepping soils for winter wheat planting that starts over the next couple of weeks.

Australia: A system that brought widespread rainfall to Western Australia last week brought limited showers through southeastern Australia over the weekend. Another burst to the system will bring through more widespread showers over the next couple of days to eastern areas, though, which would be helpful with more wheat and canola getting into reproductive stages. However, colder temperatures may bring a risk of frost over the next several days too, which could be damaging.

China: Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting. Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which is also beneficial.

 

The player sheet for 9/5 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: Exporters sold 123,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations and another 204,650 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for 2025/2026 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said via its daily reporting system.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in Thailand is believed to have bought around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat this week.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 28, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 708k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Nigeria with 117k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 28, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 10.1k tons of the 23.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

China soybean imports rise to record high for August

China’s soybean imports rose to their highest-ever level for the month of August, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed on Monday, as buyers snapped up large volumes from South America amid ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions.

The world’s top soybean buyer brought in 12.28 million metric tons in August, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, up 1.2% from 12.14 million tons a year earlier.

“August soybean imports were higher than our forecast of 11 million tons. This was due to crushers overbuying amid a lack of progress in U.S.-China trade talks,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

China’s imports in the first eight months of 2025 totalled 73.31 million tons, up 4% year-on-year, the Customs data showed. CNC-SOY-IMP

August imports were up 5.2% from July, the data showed.

Most of the soybeans imported last month are expected to be from top soy exporter Brazil.

The Latin American country’s overall September shipments are estimated to reach 6.75 million metric tons, up from 5.16 million tons a year ago, according to the Brazilian grain exporters’ association ANEC.

“As September begins, soybean arrivals in China are entering their seasonal decline,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

“If trade talks between the U.S. and China fail to make meaningful progress, concerns over supply shortages may gradually materialize, providing support for prices.”

China has yet to book any U.S. soybean importsfor the U.S. harvest period from September to January, leaving U.S. exporters at risk of missing out on billions of dollars in sales as trade talks drag on.

To offset the absence of U.S. supply, Chinese importers are also increasing purchases from Argentina and Uruguay.

Traders previously told Reuters that processors may buy up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from the two South American exporters during the 2025/26 marketing year ending next August.

 

China Joins Big Oil in Opposition to Trump’s Biofuel Proposal

US oil refiners have found an unlikely ally in their opposition to President Donald Trump’s proposed changes to biofuel policy: China.

A plan to slash incentives for renewable diesel produced from imported feedstocks will disrupt trade, harm US fuelmakers and undermine efforts to slash carbon emissions, a Chinese government agency said in an letter last month to the Environmental Protection Agency.

The concerns echo some of the objections raised by oil majors Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. as well as independent green diesel producers including Diamond Green Diesel LLC in their comments to the EPA.

US biofuel producers generate tradable credits known as RINs that oil refiners that don’t make renewable fuel typically buy to comply with their blending obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Under an EPA June proposal, renewable diesel made from imported ingredients will be granted only half the credits given to biofuel produced from domestic feedstocks. The measure, aimed at boosting production of biofuels made from domestic feedstocks, is expected to restrict imports of raw materials such as waste oil and beef tallow.

The alignment between crude refiners and China on the US biofuel policy underscores the industry’s growing reliance on used cooking oil imports in the past few years, with the Asian nation emerging as the top supplier.

Most big oil refiners “have built renewable diesel facilities that were designed for waterborne feedstock imports,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Brett Gibbs. “They don’t want to now have this artificial barrier that forces these plants to try and buy domestic feedstocks that are primarily sent via rail and truck, which puts them at a disadvantage relative to some of the inland players.”

The EPA’s push to reduce the number of credits generated for imported feedstock-based fuels has been supported by farmer and crop processor lobbies including the National Oilseed Processors Association. The move is expected to boost domestic demand for soybean oil at a time when farmers are struggling with the impact of tariffs on exports.

Still, the plan is poised to “compress the profit margins of the supply chain” and potentially force “some small and medium-sized enterprises in the US to withdraw,” Jiao Yang, deputy director general of a Chinese agency that deals with global trade issues, said in the Aug. 8 letter to the EPA.

The EPA is expected to make a final decision on blending obligations and its biofuel credit policy for 2026 and 2027 by the end of October.

 

S&P Global estimates US 2025 corn yield at 189.1 bu/acre

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated the average U.S. 2025 corn yield at 189.1 bushels per acre (bpa) and pegged production at 16.768 billion bushels, based on its own agribusiness survey, the firm said on Friday.

For soybeans, S&P forecast the average U.S. yield at 53.8 bpa and production at 4.306 billion bushels.

The firm’s yield figures are above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August 12 estimates of 188.8 bpa for corn and 53.6 bpa for soybeans. The USDA is scheduled to release updated crop estimates on September 12.

S&P also forecast U.S. all-cotton production at 14 million bales, which is 755,000 bales above the USDA’s August forecast, said Mindy McMurty, agriculture area and production analyst.

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soybean Sales at 20.5% as of Sept. 5: Safras

20.5% of the 2025/26 soy crop have been sold as of Sept. 5, according to an emailed report from Safras & Mercado consulting firm.

• The pace of the advance sales compares to 24.8% a year earlier and a five-year average of 29.2%
• Sales for the 2024/25 soybean crop are 84.1% completed, compared to 87.7% a year earlier and a five-year average of 89.3%

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Good pace of exports boosts liquidity in Brazil

The good performance of Brazilian shipments of soybeans and soy oil has been increasing the competition between consumers abroad and in Brazil, boosting export premiums. Moreover, the dollar valuation against Real (+0.8% between August 28 and September 4, at BRL 5.446 yesterday) increases the competitiveness of the national product and encourages domestic trades.

Data from Secex indicate that Brazil exported 9.33 million tons of soybeans in August. Although the volume decreased 23.8% compared to July, which is a normal trend for the period, it hit a record for the month. From January to August, shipments totaled 86.5 million tons, also a record.

Exports to China dropped 17% against July, but the country continued as the major destination, receiving 85% of soybeans sold by Brazil in August. Historically, China reduces acquisitions from Brazil in this time of the year and increases purchases from the US – in 2025, this trend may depend on the progress of the trade agreement between the governments of these two countries.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1% from August 28 to September 4, closing at BRL 141.11 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 4. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 0.5% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 135.11 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) increased 0.6% and 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) between August 28 and September 4.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Sellers limit supply; prices continue firm

Sellers in Brazil have been limiting the corn supply in the spot market and/or asking for firm quotations in new deals, since they are focused on price rises at ports and in the international market.

The domestic demand, in turn, continues low, preventing quotations to increase more significantly. Consumers are operating with inventories, expecting an increase in the supply, based on the possibility that producers end up having needs to sell. It is worth noting that the crop may hit a record in Brazil and in the US.

The demand from abroad, in turn, has been increasing. Corn exports, which were moving at a slow pace up to July, have been moving up. Moreover, the increase of the export parity and the consequent higher interest to sell to the international market also sustain domestic quotations and keep expectations of new price rises.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices moved up 0.7% between August 28 and September 4, to close at BRL 64.70 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 4. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values increased 0.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

Russia Exported 7m Tons of Grain Since Start-July: IFX

Russia has exported 7m tons of grain since the start of July, Interfax reported, citing a statement from the Agriculture Ministry

• Russia plans to export about 33m tons of grain in the second half of the year
• Statement follows Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut’s meeting on the supplies and logistics

 

Analyst APK-Inform raises Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest forecast 10.5% to 58.8 million tons

Analyst APK-Inform sharply increased its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest and exports after higher than expected corn and wheat production, the consultancy said on Monday.

The consultancy said Ukraine can harvest 58.8 million metric tons of grain, including 21.9 million tons of wheat and 30.3 million tons of corn.

APK-Inform a month earlier expected a 2025 grain harvest of 53.2 million tons, including 19.7 million tons of wheat and 27.5 million tons of corn.

The consultancy also increased its grain export outlook to 41.9 million tons from 40 million tons, thanks to larger corn and wheat sales.  Ukraine is likely to export 15.3 million tons of wheat, 23.8 million tons of corn and 2.3 million tons of barley, the consultancy said.

The country’s deputy economy minister told Reuters last month that the 2025 harvest of key commodities wheat and corn may be higher than expected if weather conditions are favourable.

Taras Vysotskiy said the official 2025 wheat output forecast may be raised to 22 million tons from 21.2 million tons currently, and the corn forecast to 28 million tons from 26.5 million tons.

Overall grain output could total 56 million tons in the 2025/26 July-June season, with exports of 40 million tons, according to official forecasts.

 

Confusion over documents halts Ukrainian rapeseed, soybeans exports, union says

The introduction of a 10% duty on Ukrainian rapeseed and soybean exports has virtually halted Ukrainian exports due to a lack of clear government procedure on the documents needed for shipment, the country’s largest food producers union UAC said on Monday.

The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill in July imposing the duty on exports of the two oilseed crops with the aim of increasing domestic processing volumes and boosting revenue for a state budget strained by the war with Russia.

Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA and the UAC opposed the decision.

“As of September 5, exports have been completely halted. With a 10% duty, it is possible (to export), but ships are waiting in ports because the shipments contain mixed products from both producers and traders,” UAC said in a statement.

Exports are not subject to duty if the producer sells its own rapeseed and soybean products.

“The problem lies in the lack of a clear procedure for documenting the origin of products grown by agricultural producers or cooperatives themselves,” the union said.

Ukraine is a major European producer of rapeseed and soybeans and has already harvested rapeseed, the export of which is most active in the first months of autumn.

 

Russian-Chinese joint venture to invest 400 mln rubles in soybean, corn cultivation in Primorye

Zolotaya Zemlya LLC, a company with Chinese participation, plans to establish an agricultural enterprise for growing soybeans and corn in the Mikhailovsky advanced development territory in Primorye, with investment estimated at 398 million rubles, the press service for the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (FEDC) said.

The corresponding agreement was signed during the 2025 Eastern Economic Forum by the director of FEDC Primorye (a subsidiary of the corporation) Alexei Dunayev and the co-owners of Zolotaya Zemlya, Vitaly Morozov and Zhao Peng.

It is planned that approximately 518 tonnes of soybeans and over 2,000 tonnes of corn per season will be grown on a plot of 690.4 hectares. Warehouse and utility facilities will be constructed as part of the project.

According to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Zolotaya Zemlya was registered in June 2024. A total of 51% of the LLC is owned by Vitaly Morozov, with the remaining share held by Chinese citizens, including 29% by Zhao Peng (the CEO of Heilongjiang Huaruiyuan Agricultural Development Co.), and 10% each by Ji Mengxin and Zhao Liguo.

 

China delays final ruling in canola dispute with top supplier Canada

• China extends canola probe to March 2026, citing case complexity
• Canada risks losing key canola market as China pivots to Australia
• Analyst suggests deal could resolve tariffs on vehicles and metals

China on Friday prolonged its probe into Canadian canola imports, buying six more months for negotiations that could ease a year-long trade dispute sparked by Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

The Ministry of Commerce said the anti-dumping probe would now run until March 9, 2026, citing the complexity of the case, a statement showed.

Beijing, the world’s largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed imports in August. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn the decision.

Canada’s Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said in an interview his government is hopeful the Chinese move allows more time for the two sides to resolve trade tensions.

“If there’s a little more opportunity to have further dialogue, further communication, which we’re doing with the appropriate people within the Chinese government, then it’s a plus without a doubt,” MacDonald said.

The Canadian government announced new support for Canada’s canola industry on Friday, with subsidies for domestic biofuels production, a pledge to improve biofuels regulations to encourage investment, and subsidized loans for canola growers.

Canada’s main canola industry organizations also said they were “hopeful” that the extension of the preliminary duties provides time for a longer-term solution.

Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola, shipped almost C$5 billion ($3.63 billion) of canola products to China in 2024, about 80% of which were seed. The steep duties on canola seed, if they remain in place, would likely all but end those imports.

China, which relies on Canada for nearly all of its canola seed supplies, also imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada, in turn, has imposed tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.

Ottawa has grown increasingly anxious about losing a key customer, especially as China appears to be pivoting towards Australian supplies.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Parliamentary Secretary Kody Blois and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe are heading to China from September 6-9 to meet with Chinese officials and discuss trade issues.

Saskatchewan is the prairie province that produces about half of Canada’s canola, the majority of which is exported.

In July, Reuters reported that Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China.

The following month, Chinese state-run trading firm COFCO booked the first new-crop Australian canola, marking China’s first imports from Australia since 2020.

 

PredictIt Gains CFTC Approval to Launch Regulated Exchange

PredictIt, a popular but previously unlicensed exchange for political junkies to put money on election outcomes, has won approval to expand operations as a regulated derivatives exchange, according to documents released Friday.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted PredictIt’s operator, Aristotle, licenses to operate an exchange and clearinghouse, a key element for prediction markets exchanges to process trades. The company’s applications have been pending since late 2021.

The regulatory sign-offs add to a spate of CFTC approvals in recent months of new prediction market exchanges, swelling the ranks of regulated firms letting customers wager on everything from interest rate moves to sports championships to political outcomes.

PredictIt has operated for more than a decade under a CFTC “no action letter” promising that the agency wouldn’t go after the exchange for failing to register. But the Biden-era CFTC yanked the letter in 2022, claiming the company had not adhered to the terms of the agreement, including that its activity would be primarily for academic purposes and that trading would be limited to relatively small-dollar amounts. That sparked a multiyear law suit that PredictIt ultimately won in July.

That same month, the CFTC granted PredictIt a revised no-action letter that allowed it to expand its political trading. But the exchange and clearinghouse applications will set the company on more equal footing with newer, regulated derivatives exchanges like Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com.

The new exchange plans to launch in October, Aristotle said in an emailed statement.

“Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet,” John Aristotle Phillips, chief executive officer of Aristotle, said in the statement.

The CFTC declined to comment.

 

 

 

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